The featherweight title rematch that so many were clamoring for is coming to fruition at UFC 179, with Jose Aldo and Chad Mendes facing off in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, to headline an exciting main card.
The goodness will start early with five main-card bouts, and a battle between Glover Teixeira and Phil Davis should whet folks’ MMA appetites for the main event. And boy, will those appetites need whetting.
In the first fight between Aldo and Mendes back in 2012, it looked as back-and-forth as it could be before Aldo broke free from a Mendes takedown attempt and landed a crushing knee to knock him out one second before the end of Round 1.
Mendes is fired up about his chance at redemption.
“It’s not just about the title,” Mendes told Mirror‘s Alex Watt. “It’s about redemption and payback and about bringing another belt back to Sacramento where it belongs. This fight, I’ve replayed it over and over in my head and, obviously, in a perfect world, I’d get in there and knock him out, but I’m expecting a war.”
The top two featherweight fighters, as ranked by UFC, should put on a battle on Saturday night. Let’s make some early predictions as to how the fight will unfold.
Predictions
2012 Fight Will Be Exposed As a Fluke
Let’s get this straight—Aldo’s victory in 2012 over Mendes was definitely not a misleading result. The way in which it ended, however, was.
For four-plus minutes of the opening round in their first matchup, Mendes wasn’t backing down. He furiously attempted to land his masterful takedown move, only for Aldo to surprisingly slip out and land a surprise knee that ended the fight.
In one more second, Mendes would’ve headed to his corner and gotten another five minutes to do what he does best—take his opponent to the canvas and keep him there.
Mendes’ takedown prowess hasn’t changed since 2012, but his ability to stand and strike has improved drastically following wins over Nik Lentz and Clay Guida. He put himself in a great position early in their first fight before letting his guard down for a quick moment, and he won’t let that happen again.
Mendes Will Hush Brazil Crowd with Strong Start
As if taking the featherweight title belt from its only owner isn’t a tall enough task, Mendes will try to knock off Aldo in his native Brazil once again.
That, along with the realization that he got knocked out in Round 1 last time, is all the more reason for Mendes to try desperately to sway the momentum early.
Mendes has been building himself up for this chance at redemption for nearly two years, and he’s ready to take advantage, per UFC:
Mendes also explained how he could alter the crowd’s impact Saturday night.
“The crowd swaying judges is huge,” Mendes told ESPN’s Brett Okamoto. “Obviously, in a fight like this, if it goes the distance, any time I hit him, the crowd is silent. Any time he hits me, there’s an uproar. Of course, that’s going to weigh on judges, but it’s not something new. I just have to brush it off and do what I’ve got to do.”
Losing to a fighter twice isn’t an ideal way to climb to the top of the sport, and that’s certainly where Mendes looks set on getting to. Even getting a rematch in a title fight is easier said than done, and Mendes won’t be banking on giving up that chance without a considerable effort.
It took potentially illegal antics on the fence for Aldo to avoid a Round 1 takedown back in 2012, and Mendes should get him to the canvas a few times early to take the momentum.
Resilient Aldo Will Settle in, Defend Title with Late-Round KO
Mendes will enter Saturday’s fight with more than enough in his arsenal to pull off the upset, but even his best won’t eliminate the gap in tactical skill between these two.
Mendes has made serious improvements to his striking game. But all of those improvements matter little when going up against Aldo—especially in Aldo’s backyard. Not only is he a much superior striker, but his takedown defense is the best at featherweight.
Aldo is keeping his sights set on another early knockout, but he isn’t putting the entire fight out of focus.
“If I see the opportunity to finish the fight again, I will,” Aldo told MMAJunkie.com’s Steven Marrocco. “It doesn’t matter that I’ve knocked him out before. That’s my mindset. But if not, I can fight five rounds. It’s not a problem.”
Aldo will prove a bit too ambitious early, as Mendes should execute his game plan in the first few rounds. But with such a magnificent takedown defense, Aldo will stay on his feet late and wear down Mendes with brutal hooks and effective jabs.
And when the opportunity comes late for Aldo to finish off his opponent, he will do just that.
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