The hearts and minds of most UFC fans are focused on January 3, 2015 when Jon “Bones” Jones defends his light heavyweight title against Daniel Cormier. However, before that epic event takes place, there’s a pretty noteworthy show on tap Saturday in Brazil.
Lyoto “The Dragon” Machida will take on CB “The Doberman” Dollaway in a crucial fight for position in the UFC’s top-10 middleweight rankings. The 36-year-old Machida lost his shot at the middleweight crown in his last fight against current champion Chris Weidman in July.
It was an excellent bout, but Weidman did enough to earn the judges’ decision. Machida is back, and now he will try to deliver a rude welcome to “The Doberman” in his native Brazil.
At 31 years old, Dollaway is five years younger than Machida, but he’ll be lagging behind when it comes to experience and crowd support. All of these things could factor into the final results. Per Odds Shark, Machida is listed as a minus-600 favorite.
Per ESPN’s Brett Okamoto, Dollaway understands the challenge, and he is looking to beat the odds.
In the co-main event, former bantamweight champion and No. 1 contender, Renan Barao returns to The Octagon after losing his title to T.J. Dillashaw in May. Barao had to bow out of the subsequent rematch when he became ill prior to the match while attempting to make the 135-pound weight limit.
In order to get in position to challenge Dillashaw again, Barao needs to prove he’s back in form. On Saturday, he faces Mitch Gagnon in a fight that could make the latter’s career.
Gagnon has won four fights in a row since losing his UFC debut to Bryan Caraway in July 2012. Beating Barao would vault Gagnon into the UFC’s top 10 amongst bantamweights.
There are 10 other fights on tap. Here’s a look at the full card, viewing information and predictions for each match. Just below the table is a closer look at the top-three bouts.
Cummins Will Overpower Carlos Junior
Carlos Junior is a good grappler and a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, but once he locks horns with Cummins, he’ll realize his opponent’s strength advantage is too much to overcome.
Cummins‘ UFC debut was lackluster against Daniel Cormier back in February, but he’s laid waste to two opponents since then. Cummins stopped Roger Narvaez in June, and he set out to retire Kyle Kingsbury in July, per an interview with The Fight Corner.
After beating up Kingsbury for three rounds, he accomplished his goal.
Cummins is rapidly improving and looking more impressive with every outing. With pressure, great endurance and superior wrestling, Cummins will ground and pound his way to victory.
Barao‘s Explosive Striking Will Stop Gagnon
I still believe Renan Barao is one of the two-best bantamweights in the world. It’s easy to get down on Barao after watching him get dominated by Dillashaw, and then being unable to healthily make weight for the rematch.
But if he’s back to himself on Saturday, Gagnon has no answer for Barao‘s explosive and varied striking game. While Gagnon is a strong submissions artist and grappler with 12 wins by tap out, Barao is skilled enough to keep the fight from going to the mat. Per Fight Metric, Barao‘s takedown defense rate is at 96 percent.
Even if Gagnon gets him down, Barao is excellent off his back. He’s also won 14 fights by submission himself. Before we saw how good he could be as a striker, Barao had earned a reputation as a submission expert.
Throw in the support and energy from the Brazilian crowd and this should be a triumphant return for the former champion.
Machida‘s Game is Too Complete For Dollaway
You won’t find many fighters who work harder or who get more from less physical ability than Dollaway. He’s a grinder who has worked hard to make himself into a contender at 185 pounds.
Against Machida, that won’t be enough.
The Dragon is more athletic, his striking has more layers and his ground game never gets the respect it deserves because of how good he is on his feet. Dollaway prefers to stand and strike, but that’s a fight he can’t win against Machida.
With one of the most dynamic and unpredictable striking games in the sport, Machida will catch Dollaway with something big by the second round. When he does, it’ll be curtains.
At 36 years old, Machida is getting to an age where he needs to prepare for one last push toward a title run. Knocking off Dollaway will be the first step in The Dragon’s final climb.
Follow Brian Mazique on Twitter. I dig boxing and MMA.
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