If UFC 192 doesn’t do great numbers, it won’t be for a lack of high-profile fights. The live audience at the Toyota Center in Houston, Texas, will see a card that should have serious title ramifications in multiple divisions.
Obviously, it all comes down to the first title defense for Daniel Cormier as the light heavyweight champion. The Louisiana-born champion shouldn’t have a problem attracting a crowd to Texas when he takes on Alexander Gustafsson in the night’s main event.
The light heavyweight division will likely see its next contender on Saturday night as well. Barring the return of Jon Jones as a part of the title picture, the winner of the fight between Rashad Evans and Ryan Bader should be in position to challenge for the title.
Throw in a co-main event between elite welterweights in Johny Hendricks and Tyron Woodley and this card is a can’t-miss event.
Here’s a look at the complete card with the latest odds from Odds Shark.
Bader vs. Evans
The light heavyweight tilt between Rashad Evans and Ryan Bader should be the odds-on favorite for Fight of the Night honors.
Not only is it among the closest fights in terms of the odds, but it has so much gravitas for both fighters that it’s hard not to see them both go out on their shield to win.
For Evans, this is finally his opportunity to show that he’s still a top light heavyweight. Due to several injuries, we haven’t seen him in action since late 2013 when he defeated Chael Sonnen via first-round TKO. A win here shows he’s just as deserving as ever to fight for a title.
For Bader, this fight is about finally taking the next step. If it feels like Bader has constantly been in the periphery of the division, it’s because he has. Every time Bader has built up some momentum in his career he’s suffered a devastating loss. In 2011, it was Jon Jones who derailed his hype train. In 2012, it was Lyoto Machida. In 2013, Glover Teixeira.
Now a four-fight win streak has Bader once again in position to take that next step. This time, he believes it’s his motivation that will be the advantage against Evans, per Dana White:
Projecting this bout all comes down to how much you think Evans has left in the tank. Given Evans’ lengthy hiatus from the Octagon, he’s a relatively unknown commodity at this point.
Both fighters are adept at wrestling, which means they’re likely to cancel each other out in that department. That means a firefight on the feet between the two.
In that scenario, Bader might have what it takes to spring the minor upset. Evans has always depended on his quickness in the striking department to allow him to jump in and out of exchanges unscathed. With a few more miles on the tires than Bader, he might just show he doesn’t have the spring in his step to win those exchanges anymore.
Prediction: Bader via third-round TKO
Hendricks vs. Woodley
Rashad Evans won’t be the only former UFC champion trying to keep someone from their first UFC title shot. Johny Hendricks draws a similar task when he takes on Tyron Woodley in the co-main event.
After beating Matt Brown in his first fight since his title loss, it would be understandable that Hendricks isn’t all that excited about this matchup. However, he sounds like a man who has taken the necessary time studying his opponent to show why he deserves another shot at the title, per Matt Erickson and John Morgan of MMAjunkie:
“The way Tyron is, he’s two different fighters. He’s either a very aggressive fighter, or he’s a very defensive fighter. We had to train for two different fighters because we don’t know which one is going to show up. We have a feeling which one is going to show up – the one that’s very aggressive. So that’s the one we trained for first.
“… I’m sort of grateful for this fight because it’s really changed my striking. Some of the things I’m going to be doing in the octagon will be different than in the past.”
Hendricks’ analysis of Woodley as a fighter isn’t wrong. He’s difficult to project because sometimes he’s the fighter who has earned three of his last four wins by knockout. Sometimes he’s the fighter who landed just 26 strikes in a three round fight with Rory MacDonald.
It’s difficult to tell which one it will be on Saturday night.
One thing that isn’t hard to tell is what Hendricks will try to do. Regardless of whether his gameplan involves a lot of wresting, striking or a combination of both, he’s going to bring the pressure.
Woodley is dangerous and should be looking to counter and move. If he doesn’t crack Bigg Rigg coming in on a counter, he’s going to have a difficult time dealing with the sheer volume that Hendricks brings to the table.
Prediction: Hendricks by decision
Cormier vs. Gustafsson
The light heavyweight title has been held by some great fighters over the years. The question surrounding Saturday’s main event is whether Alexander Gustafsson can add his name to that list while Jon Jones isn’t in the picture or whether Daniel Cormier can maintain his status as the best 205er not named Jon Jones.
As MMA Infographics points out, both fighters have very similar resumes heading into the bout:
As a 5-2 underdog according to Odds Shark, it feels like Gustafsson is being underestimated in this spot. Yes, he’s lost two of his last three fights, but one loss came to Jon Jones and the other was a TKO loss to Anthony Johnson.
Jones also soundly defeated Cormier, and very few men have taken a solid punch from Rumble Johnson and lived to tell about it.
What will tell the story in this fight is space. Gustafsson will need to create it with is footwork and angles. According to FightMetric, he will hold a seven-inch reach advantage (79-72).
Conversely, Cormier lives for the grind of wearing down his opponents in the clinch and on the mat. As Reed Kuhn of Fightnomics notes, only Ryan Bader relies more on his wrestling in the cage at UFC 192:
With both fighters looking to impose their opposite wills against each other, this should play out as an intriguing fight for as long as it lasts. Gustafsson‘s finishing rate is actually much higher than Cormier‘s, but DC has proven to be durable over the years as he’s never been finished.
Gustafsson will have his moments and make it interesting, but it’s hard to pick against someone as imposing as Cormier.
Prediction: Cormier by decision
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