Jon Jones gets back into the saddle again this weekend of April 23, 2016 at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada against Ovince Saint Preux. Demetrious Johnson defends his Flyweight title against Henry Cejudo while Anthony Pettis and his brother round out a solid cast of supporting fights.
Sergio Pettis, Carla Esparza, and a slew of decent prizefighters start the fight pass/Fox Sports 1 night off this April 23, 2016 at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.
The Line Up
Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1)
Flyweight Sergio Pettis vs. Chris Kelades
Welterweight Danny Roberts vs. Dominique Steele
Women’s Strawweight Carla Esparza vs. Juliana Lima
Lightweight Glaico França vs. James Vick
Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass)
Heavyweight Walt Harris vs. Cody East
Light Heavyweight Marcos Rogério de Lima vs. Clint Hester
Lightweight Efrain Escudero vs. Kevin Lee
The Odds
Chris Kelades +180 Sergio Pettis -260
Danny Roberts -365 Dominique Steele +255
Carla Esparza -210 Juliana Lima +160
Glaico Franca +150 James Vick -190
Cody East -175 Walt Harris +135
Clint Hester +115 Marcos Rogerio De Lima -155
Efrain Escudero +280 Kevin Lee -400
The Rundown
Flyweight Sergio Pettis vs. Chris Kelades
Younger brother of Anthony Pettis, Sergio, has had an up and down run in the UFC. At 22 years of age, this is completely allowed, and normal. At 4-2 in the UFC, there’s nothing to be ashamed of. While losses to Ryan Benoit and Alex Cacares look kind of awkward at first, they were tough stylistic clashes that Pettis has kind of outrun in some respects. He’s improved enough to avoid judgment for them in the same way I can’t be held accountable to listening to Jon Secada’s Just Another Day over and over in grade school. There goes my desert rock cred.
Taking on Kalades is a slight step down for different reasons. Kelades is a strange amalgam of raw traits. His striking needs proper coaching, and his grappling needs more finesse. instead everything he does looks improvised, like playing jazz with the bones of half eaten chicken dinners.
Sergio is nothing like his brother. Just because he likes to punch doesn’t make him similar to Anthony otherwise both would be on Andy Anderson’s family tree. Where Anthony is about velocity in intervals, Sergio is about selective volume. He can’t end the fight with one quick strike, so he opts for multitudes when he’s comfortable with his distance. Part of the issue with Pettis early is that he was dealing with high octane fighters pressuring his low key, clockwork striking. Sergio has upped the tempo of his striking gradually. As a result, he looked much improved against Cariaso. However, if Kaledes fights the first round the way Cariaso fought his last, Pettis could still struggle with his style, where you really have to be ultra dynamic at some facet of the game (Sergio isn’t there yet, but he’s got the tools to be in the upper echelon).
Welterweight Danny Roberts vs. Dominique Steele
Kind of a strange fight to have so high up on the card in terms of welterweight hierarchy, but then you look at their styles and say “oh right”. Steele and Roberts are only similar in archetype. Steele, despite his nickname, isn’t the kind of brawler Roberts would welcome otherwise. Steele relies on a patient-ish approach to boxing, looking for that quick left hook of his while sort of lumbering forward with the rest of his strikes. The slam KO over Dong Hyun Kim is not the kind of thing you should expect often because Steele’s wrestling isn’t up to snuff. Roberts, meanwhile, has a much cleaner game on the feet. From his southpaw stance, he likes to gauge distance with his feet, moving around a lot, pouncing with a jab into a dangerous overhand left. His somewhat rote approach hurts him in the clinch, and in the scrambles, but I don’t see Steele as capable of closing the distance with the necessary vigor.
Women’s Strawweight Carla Esparza vs. Juliana Lima
Esparza finally returns back into the octagon after getting the royal beatdown against Joanna Jedrzejczyk for an opponent who herself lost to Joanna. Looking at the MMAth, Lima went the distance in a mostly one sided affair while Esparza just got plain dummied. Esparza really displayed limitations that have always been there. In truth, her style would give most women in the division a ton of trouble. However, Lima is one of the few who is not one of those women. She has an aggressive grappling style that is not only equal to Esparza, but far better in positioning for submissions. She actually had Joanna in a little bit of duress in their last round, which tells you a lot about Lima’s durability. Despite being 34, she only has 10 pro bouts, and has a kind of youthful exuberance to her game. If Carla would at least pretend to be well rounded (she has better boxing than her quickness to avoid would indicate), I think this fight would be a bit more competitive. As is, I like Lima’s jab, and crisp punches. She’s not a striker by any means, but she’s defensively sound, and aggressive in her wheelhouse. Should be a tough fight for both women, but Lima should have more tools to work with.
Lightweight Glaico França vs. James Vick
Vick is undefeated thus far in his UFC career. To be honest, I’m kind of shocked. He’s a good fighter who happens to be a threat in most facets of the game, but he’s the kind of fighter that can be exploited given his aggressiveness. His quality of competition is at least part of the explanation. His frame masks some of his deficiencies, so it’ll be interesting to see how he deals with an equally big framed Franca. Franca has been cutting the proverbial teeth in Brazil with an arsenal of skills. Franca isn’t a dynamic striker, but he’s strong with his punches, and does good work using them for clinch entries and takedowns. From top control, he’s effective at not only neutralizing potential offense, but at generating his own. Because this is a rare fight where Vick won’t look dramatically bigger than his opponent, Vick’s limitations will be further on display.
Heavyweight Walt Harris vs. Cody East
Cody East has a colorful history, which is another way of saying he has a criminal history that involves rape, battery, and child abuse. Perhaps now’s not the time to revisit philosophical discussions about rehabilitation versus punishment, and how exactly we should define American’s correctional system, but at worst, the UFC shouldn’t be surprised when a city says “No MMA” and points to people like East, who have the potential to represent the company. I can only guess that the UFC vets their fighters with 12 year old myspace pages. Other stuff aside, East is the better fighter here, with a strong wrestling pedigree and the kind of quick strikes to effectively deal with pressure fighters. Harris is kind of that pressure fighter, opting for big left hands and a left kick to dominate the action on the feet but without the polish to do so against craftier fighters.
Light Heavyweight Marcos Rogério de Lima vs. Clint Hester
Of his 13 wins, Lima has knocked out 10 of his opponents in that span, and he’s done in and out of his weight class, including Heavyweight. His hands are dangerous in ways hard to count, and fighting a career middleweight may either be slaughter fodder, or something else. The good thing for Lima is that Hester often has trouble really cycling his offense. Hester has the tools for a better fighter than the current incarnation, but he struggles dealing with transition offense and defense. If Hester isn’t forced to react, he’ll sit on his punches, and wrestling, which work well in combination with one another.
Lightweight Efrain Escudero vs. Kevin Lee
I always like to imagine a universe where Phillipe Nover’s hype wasn’t derailed so soon. Where once upon a time Nover continued to be hyped as the next Anderson Silva/Georges St. Pierre after winning TUF. At least then we might have gotten actual memes. Instead Escudero is the universe we got; a fighter who struggled mentally early in his career, and has never really blossomed into anything more. He’s functionally the same fighter who won TUF. He’s not consistent enough with his improvements to have them make a tangible difference, which is why I’m not even thinking twice about picking the 23 year old All American wrestler with a growing arsenal of fight weapons.
Predictions
Pettis by Decision
Roberts by TKO, round 2
Lima by Decision
Franca by Decision
East by TKO, round2
de Lima by TKO, round 3
Lee by RNC, round 3