If you didn’t already think that the interim featherweight title was weak enough, think again.
The main event for UFC 206 had another twist Friday morning when Anthony Pettis missed weight by three pounds. What does that mean exactly? It means that Pettis will surrender 20 percent of his fight purse to his opponent, Max Holloway, and even with a win over the Hawaiian, he won’t become the interim featherweight champion.
The UFC must be hoping and praying to the fight gods that Holloway wins Saturday night in Toronto because if he doesn’t, the featherweight division will be in even more chaos than it was when Conor McGregor was the undisputed champion. Maybe that’s karma for the UFC taking his title from him just to sell a few pay-per-view buys.
Before we get into the keys for each fighter to come out on top, let’s give credit to Holloway for taking the high road on this one. He’s been patiently waiting for a title shot while racking up nine straight wins, and the 25-year-old didn’t let Pettis’ weight issue be too much of a distraction from the real fight that’s going to happen.
How Anthony Pettis wins the fight
When Pettis wants to fight, there are few fighters in the organization who are more exciting than he is. But we haven’t seen the same “Showtime” Pettis since he defeated Gilbert Melendez back in 2014.
Losing three straight fights against Rafael dos Anjos, Eddie Alvarez and Edson Barboza before coming down to the featherweight division, Pettis looked mentally checked-out during some exchanges, allowing his opponent to advance and have their way with him.
Striking and athleticism is Pettis’ calling card and he will need to outwork Holloway, which is easier said than done. Pettis has to be the aggressor in this fight, otherwise Holloway will pick him apart. Leg kicks, body kicks, anything to slow down Holloway will be exactly what the doctor ordered.
While Holloway is good on the mat, Pettis is underrated when he has top position. He’s submitted more opponents (nine) than he has knocked out (seven).
When you think of Pettis, it’s impossible to not talk about the “Showtime Kick” that rocked Benson Henderson to his core and became the ultimate highlight of Pettis’ career. It’s unlikely that Pettis can beat Holloway in a five-round fight, so he might be looking for a quick finish in the opening round of the bout.
Can lightning strike twice? Can Pettis deliver a similar fatal blow to his opponent, who hasn’t lost since 2013?
How Max Holloway wins the fight
Holloway is in an interesting position at the moment. If he wins, he becomes the interim featherweight champion and will surely have a fight scheduled to fight Jose Aldo sometime in 2017. If he loses, he’ll still get 20 percent of Pettis’ purse and still might be in line for a title shot if Dana White and the rest of the UFC brass feel that Pettis doesn’t deserve a shot since he showed up overweight for a title fight.
One thing is for certain, however. And that is that Holloway is coming to fight and take what he feels he has earned.
Pettis has finished six of his last nine opponents on his impressive win streak, but he doesn’t necessarily have the one-punch power to knock his opponent out cold like Pettis does. Holloway is a much more calculated and technical fighter who doesn’t mind sparring and setting up combinations with his jab. But don’t take that the wrong way, Holloway is always ready to fight. Or as he would say it, throw down and scrap.
Holloway is pretty good at keeping his distance while inside the Octagon, despite having a short reach for his height (69 inches). The problem Holloway might have facing Pettis is when he wants to close the distance and land some strikes, which could be difficult if Pettis is willing to throw kicks from every direction, which he is capable of doing.
Holloway doesn’t need to finish Pettis to win this fight, he just has to be smart and pick his shots while being the aggressor in the cage.
Prediction
At the end of the day, the fighter who wants it the most will win. And that fighter is Holloway. Pettis hasn’t been the same fighter these past couple years since he won the lightweight title.
Pettis won’t be ready for the barrage of strikes and the constant pressure that Holloway will put on him, forcing him back against the cage as eats strikes to the body and to the temple.
Similar to his former opponent in McGregor, Holloway is an accurate striker for a guy who averages 5.61 strikes per minute, according to UFC.com.
Unless Pettis can tag Holloway in the first two rounds and slow him down, there won’t be much that he can do to stop the freight train that is Holloway, who will have his arm raised at the end of UFC 206 with a gold strap wrapped around his waist and the microphone in his hand, pleading with Dana White to bring the UFC to the Hawaiian Islands.
Holloway by majority decision.
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