No MMA fan needs to be coaxed toward the key storyline of UFC 207. Any blind horse with half a nostril can sense it.
Yep, Ronda Rousey‘s back, and with her comes all the guesswork and intrigue that have attended her career, in some context or another, since the sport first learned she was there.
She’s fighting for the women’s bantamweight title, challenging Amanda Nunes for the belt she lost in her last fight but that has since changed hands twice.
Woe be unto you, however, if you forgot about the co-main, in which the great Dominick Cruz puts his men’s bantamweight title on the line against fast-talking, power-hitting youngster Cody Garbrandt. That will be a good fight.
UFC 207 goes down Friday—that’s correct, Friday—from the T-Mobile Arena in the Las Vegas suburbs. As Mean Gene Okerlund, the UFC 207 main card will air exclusively on a pay-per-view basis.
Here are four key storylines to keep an eye on during fight week and the event itself.
Ronda Rousey Is Mad at the Media
ESPN and Ellen are cool, but Rousey has decided not to speak to MMA reporters in the run-up to the fight. Is this something that matters? A needed countershot to a combative group that buried her after that head-kick knockout to Holly Holm? A bully or a brat thundering (silently) at the pulpit? Your mileage probably varies.
But she’s still Ronda Rousey, and during this fight week, any Rousey story is a story. Without question, this is a bigger story than the usual pablum about how when the cage door closes you can finish the fight wherever it goes and the other person is just another stepping stone to the ultimate goal.
On the aforementioned Ellen, Rousey noted that this would be one of her last fights, and that “the show isn’t going to be around forever.” That was the desired narrative, it would seem, but now it’s something different.
Does Amanda Nunes Stand a Chance?
Doggone right Amanda Nunes stands a chance.
Nunes is an aggressive striker who presses the issue with opponents. If there’s any rust from the year Rousey took off from fighting and the large chunks of time she went without training during said year, Nunes is going to find that rust and hit it really hard and frequently.
Rousey, as you may have noticed, doesn’t have the world’s most potent standup, so, yes, it should be a mismatch there. Nunes is plenty competent on the ground; Rousey‘s past dominance there needs no summation.
Even so, the odds tell the tale of how far Rousey‘s star has fallen. She’s a -180 favorite to best Nunes, per OddsShark. That’s not bad, until you recall that she was -750 to beat Holm.
So, is this a slam dunk for Rousey? No chance. Nunes is a very live dog in this matchup.
Can Garbrandt Outthink Cruz?
Cruz is the craftiest fighter in the game today. Outside of Demetrious Johnson, he’s probably the most technically competent practitioner of the sport right now.
And that’s to say nothing of the trash talk. When it comes from Cruz, it hisses with danger, stinging as it pops the glove for another strike. When it comes from Garbrandt, it’s things along the line of “he sucks,” or “he’s weak,” or some other alpha male toss-off.
That pretty much sums up the differences in their games. Cruz is a scalpel, carving up opponents with movement, endurance and precision. Garbrandt, on the other hand, is a propane tank someone just threw a cigarette at. The guy has nine knockouts to his name. That’s out of 10 pro fights, all of them wins. The 25-year-old may not last long—he’s only gone the distance once in his career—but there’s probably going to be a hell of an explosion at some point.
Blindly hurling thunderbolts probably isn’t going to get it done for Garbrandt in this one. Can he find the right angle or make the right read in the heat of a battle Cruz has, per his wont, made personal? It’s hard to say now, but the answer will determine the outcome of this fight. Buckle up.
Will the Guard Change at Welterweight?
In the featured bout of the preliminary slate, welterweights John Hendricks and Neil Magny square off. Hendricks, the former champ, has dropped three of four since losing the belt in 2014. Magny, meanwhile, has won 10 of 12, including three of four. He stumbled in his last bout, a first-round TKO to Lorenz Larkin, but his TKO of Hector Lombard earlier in 2016 was a Fight of the Year candidate.
As it stands, Hendricks is still ranked No. 6 in the official UFC rankings. That’s contender status, or close to it. Magny sits at No. 8. If he can best a flagging Hendricks, who has had trouble just making weight in recent months and years (remember the canceled Tyron Woodley bout?), those numbers could very well flip-flop and put Magny inside the velvet rope of favorites for a shot at Woodley‘s title.
At the very least, it could give him a rematch with Larkin, and a chance to expunge the only recent blemish on his record this side of Demian Maia.
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