Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images
Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Light Heavyweight veterans Ronaldo Souza and Jan Blachowicz will clash TONIGHT (Nov. 16, 2019) at UFC Fight Night 164 from inside Ginásio do Ibirapuera in São Paulo, Brazil.
Times have been tough for “Jacare,” who came within inches several times of a Middleweight title shot. After another difficult loss in a potential title eliminator, Souza has jumped ship, searching for an easier route to the title at 205 lbs. Looking to prove that no such path exists is Blachowicz, who recently smacked the hell out of Luke Rockhold when the Californian attempted a similar switch. Blachowicz has come close to scoring a title shot himself, and he’s looking to make the final leap into contention.
Let’s take a closer look at the keys to victory for each man:
Ronaldo Souza
Record: 26-6 (1)
Key Wins: Chris Weidman (UFC 230), Gegard Mousasi (UFC Fight Night 50), Derek Brunson (UFC on FOX 27), Yushin Okami (UFC Fight Night 28), Tim Boetsch (UFC 208)
Key Losses: Robert Whittaker (UFC on FOX 24), Kelvin Gastelum (UFC 224). Yoel Romero (UFC 194), Luke Rockhold (Strikeforce: Barnett vs Kharitonov), Jack Hermansson (UFC Fight Night 150)
Keys to Victory: Souza is one of the greatest grapplers to ever compete on the mat or in the cage. “Jacare” is a really a bully, a fighter who overwhelms opponents with physicality whether through power punches, takedowns, or brutal submissions.
JACARE VIDEO
Luke Rockhold tried to rush his Light Heavyweight debut, immediately charging forward with power kicks and an energy-depleting takedown attempt — he paid the price. As the potentially smaller and quicker man, it actually benefits Souza to take his time and let the fight play out a bit.
Otherwise, I would like to see Souza attack Blachowicz’s historic weakness: conditioning. That’s an area that the Polish athlete has improved dramatically, but given Souza’s history in five-round fights and less significant weight cut, it should still be an advantage Souza can pursue.
Souza works the body well, both with the front snap kick and left hook to the mid-section. Those strikes should be relied upon here, and a few additional jabs wouldn’t hurt either. If he’s able to land body shots while corralling Blachowicz into the fence, that should set up his takedowns, which will further serve to tire Blachowicz even if they do not immediately land.
Jan Blachowicz
Record: 24-8
Key Wins: Luke Rockhold (UFC 239), Jimi Manuwa (UFC Fight Night 127), Ilir Latifi (UFC Fight Night 53), Nikita Krylov (UFC Fight Night 136), Jared Cannonier (UFC on FOX 26)
Key Losses: Thiago Santos (UFC Fight Night 145), Alexander Gustafsson (UFC Fight Night 93), Jimi Manuwa (UFC Fight Night 64), Corey Anderson (UFC 191)
Keys to Victory: Blachowicz is a really well-rounded talent. The Polish veteran has powerful kicks and smart boxing, which he pairs with an opportunistic submission game and quality wrestling as well. Since Blachowicz has improved his conditioning, he’s won five of six bouts inside the Octagon.
BLACHOWICZ FOF VIDEO
In this bout, Blachowicz likely lives or dies based on how well he’s able to establish his jab. It’s one of his better weapons, as well as a strike that has trouble Souza in the past. Souza is a fighter that relies on full power movements almost all the time, which means when an opponent pecks and pokes him with quick jabs, he commonly overreacts.
Hermansson used this habit to land a jab, pull back, and counter. Blachowicz should look to replicate that strategy, though he always has to be aware that a big right hand or double leg takedown is on its way back.
Bottom Line: It’s a pretty huge fight for both men.
Light Heavyweight is really Souza’s last option. At 39 years of age, the Brazilian has little time to lose, which puts a ton of pressure on him ahead of his 205-pound debut. Quite simply, if Souza is to have any chance at fighting for a UFC title in his career, this is a must-win fight.
The stakes are clear.
Blachowicz is not exactly a spring chicken himself, and he’s already faced some setbacks while climbing towards the top of the division. At the same time, everything has been coming together well for the Polish athlete. His performances have been better and better, and he’s never had more momentum. Like Souza, this is not the time for a setback, as a loss really hurts his chances of ever achieving that title shot.
At UFC Fight Night 164, Ronaldo Souza and Jan Blachowicz will go to war. Which man will have his hand raised?