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After crunching the numbers, here are the win probabilities and possible bets for UFC 247 tonight in Houston.
The win probabilities for UFC 247’s four qualifying matchups are in. Here are the estimated odds for each bout where both fighters have at least four fully-documented prior fights and aren’t heavyweights. For statistical overload on the distance, clinch, and ground alternative stats behind the Jones-Reyes and Shevchenko-Chookagian main and co-main event matchups, see Tuesday’s piece.
Jon Jones (64.9%) over Dominick Reyes
Valentina Shevchenko (83.0%) over Katlyn Chookagian
Mirsad Bektic (55.0%) over Dan Ige
Andrea Lee (73.8%) over Lauren Murphy
Current Bankroll: $10,189.49
No-Human-Error Bankroll: $10,586.86
The fight computer’s back into positive territory, even more so without my human error a while back. It’s leaning all chalk tonight, and strongly to Shevchenko (just like the betting lines) as a predicted win probability above 80% is relatively rare. It has no bets as of this writing (8:45pm PT Friday).
Enjoy the glorious fights!
Note: This is an experiment and entertainment. Do not bet on the fights using these numbers. Taking sensible gambles with an edge over time is similar to investing. But if I’ve made a mistake somewhere, those same gambles without an edge become sucker bets. Let me be the possible sucker. You’ve been warned.
Paul writes about MMA analytics and officiating at Bloody Elbow and MMA business at Forbes, and is an ABC-certified referee and judge. Follow him @MMAanalytics. Fight data provided by FightMetric.