UFC bout Lightweight: Donald Cerrone vs. Vagner Rocha
Odds: (-525 Cerrone / +325 Rocha )
Betting Pick: Cerrone
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In a featured Lightweight bout, WEC veteran Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone squares off against jiu-jitsu ace Vagner Rocha in a bout between two guys with world-class submissions. Rocha has a sterling competitive jiu-jitsu record, but Cerrone has a long track record of submitting guys in MMA bouts and has a much more complete offensive arsenal, so this is going to be a very stiff challenge for Rocha.
Vagner Rocha, an extremely prolific grappler, is making his UFC debut and jumping right into the mix at 155 pounds. Rocha has a very serious competitive jiu-jitsu background, but his experience in Mixed Martial Arts is limited, his offense is pretty one-dimensional, and Cerrone is not only a huge step up in competition, he is a spectacular grappler himself. Rocha does have some standup, but he is going to be outgunned on the feet, and he lacks dominant wrestling to force Cerrone to fight on the ground. Even if he can force the fight to the ground, it is far from a foregone conclusion that he will get the best of Cerrone.
Donald Cerrone is an extremely effective submission specialist, but he also has a well-rounded game. He has never finished a fight by any means other than submission, but he is a skilled striker on top of having world-class submissions from every position. His jiu-jitsu is going to be huge in this fight, because he can use it defensively to neutralize Rocha’s best attribute and allow him to exploit his massive striking advantage.
I don’t think Rocha has an answer for Cerrone here. Cerrone has more experience against better opponents, a much more versatile skill set, and is well-equipped to cancel out Rocha’s one really great attribute, his submission game. Cerrone’s only weakness is his wrestling, but Rocha isn’t a good enough wrestler to exploit that. Rocha isn’t going to be able to get Cerrone down and he isn’t going to be able to submit him, and Cerrone is going to make him pay on the feet. Cerrone by T/KO.
Prediction: Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone via second round T/KO.
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