At UFC 138, middleweights Chris Leben and Mark Munoz will take part in the first five-round non-title fight in UFC history.
But there’s more on the line than a chance to be the answer to an obscure trivia question.
Depending on which ranking you look at, both men are in or very near the top 10 at 185. Leben is on the best roll of his career, having won four of five, including a huge knockout over Wanderlei Silva. Munoz, meanwhile, has won six of seven.
So what are the title implications here? What are the chances these men could, with a win, acquire the honor of being embarrassed by Anderson Silva some time in the relatively near future?
Leben would seem to be at least a couple of fights away. A New Year’s Day loss to Brian Stann—who faces Chael Sonnen at UFC 136—saw to that.
Of the two, Munoz is much closer to the title shot. Will he get it with a win over Leben?
The answer is no.
Munoz has defeated some nice names, most recently Demian Maia. But his hasn’t yet been raised when it would unequivocally vault him to the top of the heap. Leben would be an awesome win, but this fight has a far bigger upside for Leben than it does for Munoz, and as such, a Munoz win won’t quite get him to the promised land.
Back in August, 2010, he had a chance for that over-the-hump win against Yushin Okami but dropped a close split decision.
The real obstacles, though, are Stann and Sonnen. If Sonnen wins, it reinforces a position he probably already holds in the wake of UFC 134, that of No. 1 contender. If Stann can beat the No. 1-ish contender, that probably moves him to the title shot more quickly than would a Munoz win over the No. 10-ish Leben.
Make no mistake: Munoz is very good, and he is getting close.
In my opinion, the road doesn’t necessarily go through Stann or Sonnen, but he will need to defeat Leben and then get one more huge win—perhaps in a rematch with Okami—before he truly enters title shot consideration.
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