Nothing satisfies me more than seeing a hype train derailed. Guys that lack in a given area of MMA, be it certain skills or charisma or whatever else have you, that go into a fight they should win only to be exposed and knocked off their perch.
In June, Charlie Brenneman made a fan out of me be derailing one of the more obnoxious hype trains in recent memory, that of the insufferable Rick Story. The result for the man they call “The Spaniard,” is that he gets a chance to move up the ladder a little further in a tilt with Anthony “Rumble” Johnson.
Going into this weekend, that has left the question in many people’s minds: Is Charlie Brenneman a dark-horse contender in the welterweight division?
The answer, however, isn’t simple. It’s equal parts yes and no, in fact.
Yes, he’s a dark horse. No, he’s not a contender. Yet.
One win does not a career make, especially one over someone who—like it or not—was oversold and relatively unproven in Story.
Sure, he’d racked up some wins, but until he beat Thiago Alves, Story was just another name on the long list of good wrestlers with improving standup that have littered MMA in recent years. He lacked the cache of a signature win, usually beating grinders on prelims.
Brenneman outed Story as a work in progress, and basically stole his hype and excitement. The only problem is that Brenneman himself is more or less in the same mold as Story, though possibly not even as far along in his development.
Charlie is a great wrestler—that’s how he came in and beat Story on short notice. However, his hands are lacking big time and without a legitimate striking attack he’ll have a hard time moving upward in one of the toughest divisions in the sport. He’ll ride out plenty of decisions, but he’ll never sell himself as a serious threat to the best in the world without more diversity in the cage.
Which leads him to a big problem on Saturday night.
Johnson is a mountain of a man. His problems getting to 170 come weigh-in day have been well-documented, and he often tips the scales at 230 when not in training. He has great wrestling, and also what Brenneman has shown to lack at this stage in his career: numbing power in his striking.
That’s likely to give Brenneman fits, as he’ll have trouble taking the bigger man down and won’t be able to compete on the feet unless something has changed drastically since his appearance in June. I’m betting not much has.
And so exists the crossroads for The Spaniard. With the biggest win of his life over Story, he stole all that hype and propelled himself into big fights and, in some eyes, top-10 ranking in the welterweight class.
Unfortunately, that one win has pushed him too far, too fast and into fights that he’s not yet ready for. Where Story was a good matchup for him, he was also the easiest guy Charlie could hope to fight to gain credibility at this point in time.
So yes, Charlie Brenneman is a dark horse. He can wrestle, has good submission defense, and is tough. Those tools are often enough to beat lesser guys, and sometimes guys you have no business beating, most likely on the scorecards.
However, his greenness and lack of striking will keep him out of the title picture for now, which is the “no” side of the equation answering the question above.
Then again, in June we were all saying the same thing about the guy and look what happened. Rumble should probably be mindful, just in case.
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