Cain Velasquez will step into the Octagon on Saturday at UFC on FOX 1 to defend his UFC Heavyweight title for the first time. Velasquez captured the title by defeating Brock Lesnar in October of last year. Since that time Velasquez has been on the shelf, a result of a shoulder injury sustained in the Lesnar fight. That shoulder is the biggest question heading into his fight against Junior dos Santos. Sure, Velasquez has sparred with the fellas at American Kickboxing Academy, but that cannot substitute for UFC title fight action.
If Velasquez is not 100 confident in that shoulder or if it gets tweaked early, he will be in trouble, unable to execute his wrestling and forced to hold back on his strikes. If that happens, Junior dos Santos, recognized as one of the strongest boxers in the UFC will look to use his skills to turn the lights out on the champion.
If Velasquez is confident that his shoulder is 100 percent he will be able to use his wrestling skills to the fullest, negating the striking skills of dos Santos. If Velasquez can get the fight to the ground, his wrestling is accomplished enough that he should be able to hold dos Santos down and use his ground and pound to end the fight.
With all that being said, I do think that Velasquez went about his shoulder rehab in the proper way, giving himself more than enough time to know that it is 100 percent ready to go. I see the title remaining in the hands of Velasquez via a third round TKO.