Yan Vs. Figueiredo Betting Odds, Prediction | UFC Betting Sites

UFC 299: Yan v Song — Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Bantamweight standouts Petr Yan and Deiveson Figueiredo will clash this weekend (Sat., Nov. 23, 2024) at UFC Macau from Galaxy Arena in Macau, SRA, China.

Do five-round Bantamweight bookings ever disappoint? If you like fighting at all, this is a perfect match up worthy of every single minute. Yan and Figueiredo enter their main event slot in similar positions, former champions looking to earn another shot at gold. Yan is coming off an excellent three-round victory over Song Yadong — why isn’t he on this card again?!? — whereas “Daico” is undefeated since jumping to 135-pounds, defeating the likes of Rob Font, Cody Garbrandt, and Marlon Vera to establish himself as a contender in this new weight class.

It’s likely to be a must-watch affair, so let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:

Yan vs. Figueiredo Betting Odds

Petr Yan victory: -305
Petr Yan via TKO/KO/DQ: +200
Petr Yan via submission: +2000
Petr Yan via decision: +110
Deiveson Figueiredo victory: +245
Deiveson Figueiredo via TKO/KO/DQ: +900
Deiveson Figueiredo via submission: +1400
Deiveson Figueiredo via decision: +500
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

How Yan Wins

“No Mercy” is one of those perfect fighter nicknames. There’s a certain nastiness to how Yan aims to break down his foes, famously taking a few minutes to gain reads before suddenly putting his foot on the gas with pressure and brilliant combinations from either stance. For being such a skilled striker, it must also be mentioned that Yan is an excellent and crafty wrestler as well.

Rough patch aside, Yan is a special talent.

Both of these men are former champions. This is not a fight where one man has a massive technical advantage in one area. It’s not so simple this time around as “the wrestler should take down the striker.” We’re talking about genuinely excellent fighters who can strike, wrestle, and roll with the best of ‘em.

On the Yan side of the equation, the real difference-maker would instead appear to be pace. At 36 years of age, Figueiredo has fatigued in previous five-round fights. He still hits quite hard, but up a weight class against a defensively sound striker like Yan, it feels as though Yan can effectively pressure without putting himself in too much danger. Over time, consistent pressure will wear the Brazilian down, allowing Yan to really kick it into high gear and take over in the second half of the fight.

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How Figueiredo Wins

“Deus Da Guerra” isn’t such a bad moniker either. Unlike many champions, Figueiredo’s championship reigns were marked by his ability to thrive in chaos, where he’s able to connect on massive power punches or snatch the neck suddenly. Since moving up in weight, however, Figueiredo has been much more measured and tactical in his approach.

In the face of Yan’s likely pressure-heavy approach, Figueiredo has to slow his opponent down. In fact, that’s been a consistent trend to his Bantamweight fights, as Font and Vera shared a similar approach of trying to win by landing more. In both fights, however, Figueiredo’s power advantage and occasional takedowns were enough to sway the judges in his favor.

This is a more serious challenge, but the general idea is the same. “Daico” has to be sharp on the counter to deter Yan from really stringing together his combinations. Evasive footwork will help stall Yan’s momentum, as will some well-timed reactive takedowns. In between those big moments, I’d like to see Figueiredo ripping power kicks to the body or calf, a good way to score points and slow Yan a bit before returning to his movement.

Yan vs. Figueiredo Prediction

I’m of the opinion that the style match up here strongly favors Petr Yan.

As explained above, Figueiredo has to do something to stop Yan’s pressure and volume, otherwise he’s going to be broken down in the later rounds. He hits hard, certainly, but Yan just wore through Song Yadong’s offense, and the Chinese slugger is probably an even bigger hitter than the former Flyweight kingpin. Alternatively, Figueiredo could try to wrestle, but even Merab Dvalishvili only scored about one of every five takedowns he attempted on “No Mercy,” and holding the Russian down is extremely challenging too.

Ultimately, it feels like Yan will be able to play his game, leaving “Daico” reliant on one massive punch to change the fight … or maybe Yan does something extremely stupid again. Either could happen, but the more likely bet is Yan takes over towards the end of the second and either finishes late or earns a clear-cut decision.

Prediction: Yan via decision (+110)