Nick Diaz vs. Carlos Condit
Nick Diaz and Carlos Condit have both been saying the right things going into this fight. Both are dismissing the fans and pundits that are looking ahead to the winner taking on Georges St-Pierre, just as both are admitting to the fact they are facing a tough opponent.
The odds on this one started out as pretty much dead even, but over time the betting line has begun to favor Diaz and I can’t say that I disagree. There is no denying that Condit deserves a shot at the interim title in this fight, he can bring it just as well as Diaz can, but the difference is in the technique. With Diaz landing well over 100 strikes per fight (178 out of 350 thrown against BJ Penn), any fighter will have a rough time dealing with that volume of strikes. When you throw in the fact that Diaz has a gas tank that could probably go 10 rounds, well, I just feel he’ll be too much and will eventually weaken the resolve of Condit. Nick Diaz by fourth round submission
Roy Nelson vs. Fabricio Werdum
There’s a lot on the line for both fighters in this bout. While it’s true that Nelson has lost some of the girth that led UFC president Dana White to proclaim, “The fat thing was funny for a while, it’s not funny anymore,” following a loss to Frank Mir at UFC 130, it’s not a lock that his job is completely safe heading into UFC 143. Nelson’s opponent, Fabricio Werdum is also not a sure thing to continue UFC employment following Saturday night’s co-main event.
Nelson is coming off a win over a badly fading Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic at UFC 137, while Werdum enters UFC 143 coming off one of the more bizarre losses of 2011, when he dropped a unanimous decision to Alistair Overeem in June, a fight he spent a good deal of time looking to draw Overeem into his guard, to no avail.
Both of these fighters are black belts in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, but Nelson has an advantage in his power and ability to take a punch. It’s doubtful that Werdum will fight the same style of fight on Saturday that he did against Overeem, but it’s also doubtful that he has the power to stop Nelson or that the difference in jiu-jitsu skill level is pronounced enough that he will be able to submit Nelson.
The question on Nelson is what kind of shape he will be in when he enters the Octagon. If he has continued to drop bulk and replace it with muscle then he should be able to use his power and ability to take abuse to outlast Werdum. If he comes in heavier he may end up gassing and leaving himself susceptible to Werdum’s submission attempts.
I think Nelson has learned his lesson and he will be in better shape than he was in the Cro Cop fight and he will take home the decision.