UFC Bantamweight bout: Renan Barao vs. Scott Jorgensen
Odds: (-240 Barao / +190 Jorgensen )
Betting Pick: Jorgensen
Bet on this fight at Bodog.com
In a featured 135 bout, Scott “Young Guns” Jorgensen will look to make it three wins in a row against prolific submission grappler Renan“Barao” Pegado. Jorgensen is widely considered a top 5 Bantamweight, and his sterling amateur wrestling background makes him a very formidable opponent. Pegado, after dropping his first professional fight in 2005, has put together 27 consecutive wins in Shooto, WEC, and UFC, with a remarkable 13 of those coming by way of submission. This is an interesting style match up, in that Jorgensen’s dominant take downs feed right into Pegado’s world-class submission game. It is entirely possible that this fight between two guys primarily known for their grappling will be decided by which guy can do more in the striking.
Scott “Young Guns” Jorgensen is a versatile young fighter with solid punching power and a decent submission game. He can box and he can submit guys from top position, but his best work comes from his stellar take downs, top control, and ground and pound. Jorgensen is one of the most accomplished wrestlers in the sport at 135 pounds, and is very hard to stop from controlling opponents physically, stacking up from top position, and raining down punishment. Against Pegado,working inside the guard might be a reckless decision, but Jorgensen has an advantage in that his wrestling will allow him to defend Pegado’s takedown attempts much more effectively and dictate how this fight plays out. Pegado is also dangerous standing up, but being able to dictate position and being able to use the threat of take downs to neutralize Pegado’s striking are both big advantages for Jorgensen in this fight.
Renan “Barao” Pegado is a long-time veteran of Shooto, WEC,and the UFC who is currently riding a ridiculous 27 fight winning streak. Pegado is one of the most dangerous offensive fighters in the Bantamweight division, with great punching, solid wrestling,and world-class jiu-jitsu. His submissions are spectacular from every position and he has great sweeps and escapes. His standup is powerful and accurate. The big disadvantage he is going to have in this fight is wrestling. He is perfectly capable of working off his back, but being unable to dictate position on the ground is going to hurt him and Jorgensen’s top game is really effective.
This is a very tough fight to call because both guys have so many weapons. There is no question that Jorgensen is the better wrestler, but sitting in Pegado’s guard might be a recipe for disaster. Both guys have heavy hands on the feet, but Pegado is maybe a bit crisper. This could really go either way, but I think the edge in terms of quality opponents, physicality, and strength go to Jorgensen. As a +190 or so underdog, I think it’s hard to bet against Jorgensen’s ultra-physical wrestling and quality submission defense. Jorgensen by decision.
Prediction: Scott Jorgensen by Decision.
To add a little more excitement come fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bodog.com Odds. Check out my review of Bodog here…
Use our Moneyline Calculator below to add up your potential Winnings. Put in a (-) sign if your betting on the favorite.