Author: Adam Wells

As much fan anticipation as there is for the UFC 158 main event between Georges St-Pierre and Nick Diaz for the welterweight championship, the sport of mixed martial arts needs one outcome: St-Pierre retaining the title. 

Few fighters in the world are as purely entertaining as Diaz, because you never know what he is going to do. He is a wild card in every possible sense, but that is not necessarily a good thing. 

First, looking at his track record, Diaz could leave the sport of mixed martial arts at a moment’s notice. After losing his last fight to Carlos Condit at UFC 143, he made the decision to retire in a post-fight interview with Joe Rogan. 

No one really took that retirement threat seriously, and in typical Diaz fashion, he ended his journey into the sunset just a few months later, because he was reportedly looking for a fight with Anderson Silva. 

To be fair to Diaz, he is hardly the first person in this sport to retire and then come back when the opportunity to make money presented itself. 

Another factor working against Diaz is his drug use. A big reason this fight with St-Pierre has taken nearly two years to come to fruition is because of a one-year suspension given to Diaz due to a failed drug test after his bout with Condit in February 2012. 

A drug test for marijuana is hardly the worst thing that has happened to a fighter in UFC. Alistair Overeem would have been fighting for the heavyweight championship if he didn’t fail a test for performance-enhancing drugs last year. 

Chael Sonnen would have gotten an immediate rematch with Anderson Silva, presumably in early 2011, if he didn’t fail a drug test after UFC 117. 

At least UFC did make Sonnen win two fights before throwing him back in the title picture, but Diaz is a different animal entirely. 

Sonnen and Overeem have no problem playing the media game. Those fighters want to be out there, promoting fights and generating interest for the sport. It makes sense, because the more people who want to see you fight, the more money the fighter—and UFC—will make. 

Diaz doesn’t play that game.

He doesn’t like that part of the game and wants no part of it. The reason his fight with St-Pierre at UFC 137 was canceled and he was bumped down to a fight with B.J. Penn, prior to St-Pierre announcing he had a knee injury, was because Diaz flaked on a press event in Toronto leading up to the fight. 

In the days leading up to UFC 158, Diaz continues to play his games. He was scheduled to be part of an open workout in Montreal but never showed up, leaving Dana White with a serious case of deja vu.

White said in an interview with Jim Rome that if Diaz wins this fight and doesn’t play ball with UFC, Diaz will be stripped of the title. 

So UFC could potentially have a champion who has failed a drug test, has no problems flaking on public appearances and gets stripped of a title after beating arguably the best pound-for-pound fighter in the world. 

Everyone knows that Diaz is who he is, and nothing is going to change that. He has been a flake for as long as he has been in mixed martial arts. But because there is money in this fight, UFC had to enable him. 

It would just be a stain on the sport of mixed martial arts if Diaz were to win the title, because the odds of him actually losing the title against another fighter, as opposed to just having it taken away from him for not playing by the same rules as everyone else, are slim to none. 

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Georges St-Pierre and Nick Diaz is a matchup the UFC has been trying to set up for the better part of two years. The intense personal rivalry between arguably the two best welterweights in the world will finally take place at UFC 158. 

What makes the potential for this fight so great, with the obvious exception of St-Pierre and Diaz being amazing at what they do, is how personal this fight has become. Diaz has berated St-Pierre every chance he gets, forcing the Canadian to retaliate in ways he usually doesn’t. 

But the time for talking is nearly over. All that is left will be to decide who is the better fighter. St-Pierre has been welterweight champion for nearly six years. Diaz was on a three-year winning streak before losing to Carlos Condit last February. 

So much history is at stake with only 25 minutes to decide who is the best. Here are the keys to victory for St-Pierre and Diaz at UFC 158. 

Georges St-Pierre

Exploit Diaz‘s Aggressiveness; Keep the Fight Going

St-Pierre is not the kind of fighter who is going to change his gameplan to prove a point or send a message. He locks in on what an opponent can’t do, takes advantage of it early and then forces his opponent to make an adjustment. 

But what makes St-Pierre so dangerous is his ability to adapt his style to what his opponent does well, then makes his opponent try to find a new way to win. 

Diaz is not a subtle fighter. He wants to come out of the gate as hard and fast as he possibly can. He has changed his style over the years, going from a wrestler to a stand-and-trade power puncher. 

That will work to St-Pierre’s advantage. As Diaz gets so amped up coming out of the gate, St-Pierre will basically let Diaz do all the work and punch himself out early to control the fight late. 

Diaz falls apart the longer a fight goes on, either because he is out of energy or just loses focus—hard to imagine with Diaz, I know. So, as this fight gets into the third, fourth and fifth rounds, it works to St-Pierre’s benefit. 

St-Pierre isn’t going to finish the fight, because that’s not his style. He has to do what he does better than any fighter in the sport: dictate and control every aspect of the action inside the octagon. 

Nick Diaz

Don’t show your hand right away; arrogance will not be your ally

Diaz has to leave some things for St-Pierre to react to as the fight goes on, assuming neither fighter ends this match early. No one will be shocked to see Diaz come out at the bell just throwing haymakers, but that can’t be his only strategy. 

We know Diaz can bring a fight to the ground and do work with submissions, or get in the mount position to bludgeon an opponent with hammer fists. He just refuses to do that much anymore because he wants to be a boxer. 

If St-Pierre can plan to stand for all five rounds, Diaz is going to be in a world of trouble before the first round ends. He has to be able to adapt his style as the fight goes on if he wants to win the welterweight championship. 

Another problem Diaz runs into is his own psyche. He is such a wild card with everything he does, whether stepping into the Octagon or talking into a microphone, that you never know what to expect. 

If Diaz doesn’t get the fight to go his way early, he can just shut his mind down and take the loss. He needs to park whatever pride he has if he wants to defeat St-Pierre. The mind is just as important in a fight like this as the body. 

No fighter in the sport is as mentally strong as St-Pierre. Diaz has no idea what he is going to do one moment to the next. 

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It is entirely possible that we will look back at UFC 157 and think of it in the same way we do the first UFC event in 1993, UFC 100 and UFC 129—as one of the most important nights in mixed martial arts history. 

While this event won’t do nearly the business on pay-per-view that UFC 100 and UFC 129 did, UFC 157 is making history as being the first event in company history to feature a women’s bout when Ronda Rousey defends the bantamweight championship against Liz Carmouche. 

On a night with such historic implications, here is all the information you need to prepare yourself for the event and when you can plan on watching it. 

Where: Honda Center in Anaheim, CA

When: Saturday, Feb. 23 at 10 p.m. ET

Watch: Main Card airs on pay-per-view at 10 p.m. ET; FX Preliminary Card starts at 8 p.m. ET; Facebook Preliminary Card starts at 6:30 p.m. ET

What to watch for

In addition to the UFC debut of Ronda Rousey, who is worth all the pre-fight hype she is getting, Dana White and Joe Silva have done a great job of loading this card so it has a little something for everyone. 

You have the championship fight at the top that, on paper, looks like a glorified showcase for Rousey. But there is also Dan Henderson vs. Lyoto Machida in a fight that could easily determine who the No. 1 contender for Jon Jones’ light heavyweight title is. 

Remember, Henderson was supposed to challenge Jones at the infamous UFC 151 event that was cancelled after Henderson got hurt and Jones didn’t want to fight Chael Sonnen on short notice. 

Urijah Faber is a perennial title contender but has to prove that he is more than just a guy who can beat mid-level competition and isn’t a threat to the champions, which is what he has been for the last three years. 

Josh Koscheck and Robbie Lawler both have a lot to prove coming off losses. Lawler especially has to show something because he lost three of his last four fights in Strikeforce and is making his UFC debut.

We know the company is in cut mode, so all fighters except the top stars should feel like they are on thin ice right now. It will be interesting to see how UFC handles a lot of the talent that loses this weekend. 

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As much hype as the Ronda Rousey vs. Liz Carmouche main event of UFC 157 is getting heading into the show, it is going to be business as usual for both competitors once the bell rings.

This should be treated like a big deal because Dana White had been so steadfast against women competing in the UFC. Now, not only does the first women’s fight in company history feature one of the biggest stars in the sport (Rousey), but they are competing in the main event. 

Both Rousey and Carmouche understand that they are making history on Saturday. They are also smart enough to know that they have to perform in order for more women to get their big break on a UFC pay-per-view. 

Here is what Rousey and Carmouche will be trying to do when the Octagon door closes and they determine who the bantamweight champion is. 

Keys to victory for Rousey

The ground and submissions are your friend; use strength and power advantage

Everyone and their brother knows what Rousey wants to do in her fights, because she has done the same thing every time she has stepped in the cage. In six career fights, Rousey has six submission armbars wins. 

An even more amazing stat is that Rousey‘s six victories have taken a combined seven minutes and 39 seconds. For all the training she does to prepare for a fight, Rousey has fought a grand total of 2.5 rounds. 

The reason Rousey is so successful is two-fold.

First, her Judo skills are off the charts. That is no surprise since she won an Olympic medal in 2008. No woman in the sport has a skill as well-developed as Rousey‘s Judo, which gives her an edge going into every fight. 

Second, Rousey is stronger than everyone she goes up against. When you add the technical Judo skills, submission ability and raw power Rousey has, you have the makings of an unstoppable force. 

It will be interesting to see how Rousey‘s style changes, if at all, when she has to go longer than one round. That isn’t to say that will happen in this fight, it’s just one of those great wonders we may never get an answer to. 

Keys to victory for Carmouche

Control the pace; stay out of Rousey‘s grasp; win the points battle

No one is giving Carmouche much of a chance to win this fight, which doesn’t come as a surprise given her two losses against Marloes Coenen and Sarah Kaufman in her last two Strikeforce appearances. 

However, Carmouche is not devoid of talent. She has good power in her striking and actually dominated Coenen for three rounds before getting caught in a triangle choke in the fourth round. 

Regardless, Carmouche can’t match Rousey‘s power, so it is imperative that she dictates the pace of this fight and doesn’t give the champion an opening to take her down and lock in the armbar. 

Since it is hard to see Carmouche being able to move in long enough to land a powerful strike that could give her a knockout, she has to make this an endurance battle and go for the points victory. 

Taking Rousey out of the first round should be at the top of Carmouche‘s agenda, though she can’t be passive in doing so. There has to be some aggressiveness to her approach, just not enough to get caught in a position she doesn’t want to be. 

Rousey has a knack for grabbing an opponent in the blink of an eye. Carmouche has to be prepared at all times to defend her legs and keep the fight standing to walk away with the upset and championship. 

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Saying that you are going to make history and actually making history are two very different things. UFC 157 is going to join the latter group on Saturday night, when Ronda Rousey and Liz Carmouche become the first women to battle in the Octagon, in the main event, no less. 

Just because Rousey and Carmouche are fighting at the top of the card doesn’t mean there aren’t plenty of other great storylines to pay close attention to during the pay-per-view. 

UFC has pulled out all the stops to load this card and make sure that as many eyeballs are on it as possible. Rousey vs. Carmouche is the main attraction and certainly it’s got so many storylines you could write a book about it. 

Here are the top storylines that you need to watch during UFC 157. 

Will Ronda Rousey live up to the hype?

It is very rare that a fighter makes a UFC debut in the main event of a pay-per-view. It is even more rare when that fighter brings the kind of pre-show hype that Rousey has. This might be the most high-profile UFC debut since Brock Lesnar in 2008, that’s how big Rousey has gotten in the sport. 

That’s not to say that Rousey will draw the kind of numbers on pay-per-view Lesnar did, because no one in the sport has ever done that. 

But from a marketing and hype standpoint, Rousey is at the top of the world right now. That also means she has very little margin for error. If she completely bombs in her debut—which I don’t see happening—it will be very hard for the women’s division to succeed in UFC. 

Rousey has to carry the torch, at least for a little while, for all the women getting ready to make the jump to UFC. She has the charisma and talent to be that kind of star. It is on her to execute in the Octagon the way she did in Strikeforce to match the hype. 

Winning is not going to be enough for Rousey. She has to create a stir, like she did when she destroyed Miesha Tate’s arm to win the Strikeforce women’s bantamweight championship. 

Is redemption in store for Dan Henderson?

Last September, when Dana White was forced to cancel UFC 151, all of the blame went on Jon Jones because he didn’t want to take a last-second fight against Chael Sonnen. 

But it is important to remember that Dan Henderson, who was Jones’ original opponent for the light heavyweight title, injured his knee during training and didn’t give UFC officials proper notice to explore a potential replacement. 

Henderson worked to get himself ready for a title fight again, but Chael Sonnen was put in his spot at the upcoming UFC 159 show in April. 

Now Henderson is being asked to win one more fight against Lyoto Machida, one of the most dangerous light-heavyweight fighters in the world, before getting the title shot he has already earned. 

At 42 years old, Henderson doesn’t have a lot of time left. The bout against Jones, if he were to lose, would probably be the last big-time fight in his career. But he is at least six months from getting that fight, assuming he defeats Machida on Saturday night. 

What does Urijah Faber have left?

Despite being one of the most popular fighters in the sport, Faber has largely been given a hall pass for his recent performance in big-match situations. 

Dating back to his time in WEC, Faber has lost his last five championship fights. The people looking at the glass half full will say that, even though he is losing, he is doing so against the best fighters in the division (Dominick Cruz, Jose Aldo, Renan Barao). 

But the more realistic perspective on Faber’s career at this point is, he is still a very good fighter but no longer at an elite level. 

All of that leads us to Faber’s fight with Ivan Menjivar. This is the kind of fight that Faber should win. Menjivar is a solid bantamweight fighter, but he is hardly someone you notice when he is in the cage. 

If Faber wants to remain in that territory where he can still get title fights because people recognize his name, he has to win this bout and do so in impressive fashion. At 33 years old, competing in a division where speed is everything, Faber is at a point where his skills are going to decline. He just has to delay the process as long as he can. 

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