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WEC 53 – Henderson VS. Pettis takes place tonight in Glendale, Arizona.  The final WEC card gets two title matches, as WEC Lightweight champion Ben Henderson takes on #1 contender Anthony Pettis, and WEC Bantamweight king Dominick Cruz squares off against a skilled Scott Jorgensen.

I want to take this space to reflect on the WEC.  I have watched the WEC since they’ve been on Versus and have thoroughly enjoyed the product they put forward.  On many occasions, the WEC cards would blow the UFC cards out of the water based on excitement.  It is a shame that the WEC didn’t amass more of a following, but there are a lot of positives with the lighter weight fighters getting assimilated into the UFC.  WEC, you will be missed!

As per MMAMoneyLine routine, myself and Mike Hammersmith of MMAHive will be breaking down our best bets for the WEC 53 card.  If you are planning on betting on this event, make sure to keep current on WEC 53 odds and take a look at who the MMA world has winning over at MMAMoneyLine’s WEC 53 Pros’ Picks.

Bart Palaszewski– Mike Hammersmith (+135 on Bookmaker)

Two of the toughest bastards in the division will scrap in this potential classic. Bart Palaszewski is one of the most experienced fighters in the WEC, and while he’s not a master of any craft, he brings more than enough problems to make any fight a hard one. Kamal Shalorus is somewhat similar in nature, as a simple yet effective fighter with world-class wrestling and deadly haymaker punches. This is a coin-toss fight, depending on if Shalorus wants to work his wrestling here or just trade with Palaszewski. If this one stays on the feet for long though, expect Palaszewski to get his opponent’s timing down and start bloodying up the Iranian fighter, leading to a late TKO or decision win.

Donald Cerrone – Mike Hammersmith (-340 on Sportsbook)

Christmas comes early here, as our best bet of the month will pay off those soaring credit card bills. Coming off a tremendous win in a rematch with Jamie Varner, Donald “The Cowboy” Cerrone looked like a new man, using his iron chin, high-level striking and new-found wrestling to dismantle the former champion. While his opponent Chris “The Polish Hammer” Horodecki has done well for himself early in his career, he finds that a lack of power standing and limited options on the ground make him a gimmie fight for the muay thai assassins in WEC’s Lightweight division. Expect more of the same, as Cerrone crushes Horodecki on the feet with a quick KO finish, and a huge payday for us all.

Jamie Varner – MMAMoneyLine (-200 on Sportsbook)

Despite what people think of Varner, he is one of the most well-rounded fighters on the planet, with true technical boxing, high-level wrestling, and the conditioning to grind fighters to dust. Although he’s had a rough patch with a bullshit draw against Kamal Shalrous and a beating at the hands of Donald Cerrone, he will have a chance to shine as he returns to the UFC. For all the skills that Shane Roller brings to the table, he’s largely been unable to get a game plan working for him in any of the fights he’s had, and with little to fill out his wrestling, finds himself constantly in trouble in fights. Varner is a cerebral fighter with the wrestling to slow or stop Roller in his attempt to make this a grappling match, and in the striking department, this is a no-brainer. Combine this with Roller’s suspect conditioning, and Varner should be able to coast to a decision at worst, or knock Roller out early in this bout.

Kamal Shalorus– MMAMoneyLine (-165 on Sportsbook)

A fight that looks close on paper is not as close in reality.  Quick rundown on Kamal Shalorus:  world class wrestling (that he rarely uses), extremely powerful striking (without much technique), and ungodly strong.  Quick rundown on Bart Palazewski:  the consummate MMA vet, good striking, good grappling, solid chin.  Looks close right?

The problem is that Palaszewski is going to have to stand in front of Shalorus.  Kamal’s striking is novice level, but he hits like a damn garbage truck.  Shalorus has excellent takedown defense that he showed in the Varner fight and will be too strong to get clinched or put up against the cage by Palaszewski.

If Palaszewski wins this fight, he outpoints Shalorus for 3 rounds.  It could happen, but the odds are against it.  Shalorus was able to take Varner’s striking, and the former champ has some of the best boxing in the division.  I fully assume Shalorus will leave his wrestling in the locker room, but I think his freak power will be enough to land one shot and call it a day.

Brad Pickett – MMAMoneyLine (-175 on Sportsbook)

Hey, it’s Ivan Menjivar!  Good to see the vet fighting on the last WEC card.  Unfortunately for him, he is fighting a monster in Brad Pickett.  I was extremely impressed with Pickett’s victory over Demetrious Johnson (a guy who is also burning through the Bantamweight ranks).  Pickett looked good against Jorgensen, but (like most) he did not have the wrestling to compete with the number one contender.

Both Pickett and Menjivar have similar skill sets:  both guys can knock you out, submit you, grind you with wrestling.  However, there are some points that should be made.  Menjivar has had a pretty uneventful career of late, only having one fight since 2006.  In addition, he is dropping a weight class to fight Pickett.  Menjivar doesn’t have the MMA wrestling that Scott Jorgensen possesses, and anything but a world class grappler is in trouble against the Brit.  I like Pickett here by decision.

MMAMoneyLine Official Picks:

Henderson/SUB/2

Cruz/UD

Cerrone/UD

Shalorus/KO/1

Zhang/TKO/2

Roller/SD

Wineland/UD

Pickett/UD

Castillo/KO/2

Barao/SUB/2

Lamas/UD

MMAMoneyLine Official Wagers (1 unit = 2% of bankroll):

Shalorus – 1.5 u. at -165 on Sportsbook

Pickett – 1 u. at -165 on BetUS

Roller – .5 u. at +165 on Bodog

UFC 124 – St. Pierre VS. Koscheck II takes place this Saturday, December 11th, in Montreal.  The main event will be a rematch between UFC Welterweight champion Georges St. Pierre and number one contender Josh Koscheck.  Rounding out the main card is a Muay Thai lover’s dream between Thiago Alves and John Howard and a battle between two TUF winners in Joe Stevenson and Mac Danzig.

As standard procedure, myself and Mike Hammersmith of MMAHive will be giving our best bets for tomorrow’s UFC 124 card.  There aren’t a ton of betting opportunities on this card, but there are definitely some under card diamonds in the rough.  Before you throw your money down on this weekend’s UFC 124, make sure to keep current on the UFC 124 odds.  Also, check out MMAMoneyLine’s UFC 124 Pros’ Picks and MMAMoneyLine’s MMA Fighter Profiles (by clicking a fighter’s name on the main page).

Thiago Alves – Mike Hammersmith -265 on Sportsbook)

Another great example of how the battlefield principle has a profound effect on a fight, the dangerous Thiago Alves will take on John Howard in a spirited striking bout. Alves brings some of the most dangerous stand-up in the division to this bout, but his title hopes have been dashed time and again by the superior technical wrestlers at welterweight. While Howard has a good deal of talent everywhere this fight goes, he doesn’t have the kind of wrestling that will put Alves on his back here, making this a stand-up bout that he’s woefully unprepared for. You can count on the fast hands and hard chin of Alves to be more than enough to batter Howard here, leading to a TKO win or easy decision for the top-tier Welterweight.

Joe Stevenson – Mike Hammersmith (-265 on SportBet)

In a battle of TUF winners, TUF 2′s Joe “Daddy” Stevenson will make his return to the cage, taking on TUF 6′s Mac Danzig in what will likely be Danzig’s swan song. While neither fighter has found the ability to consistently defeat top competition at Lightweight, Danzig has posted a 3-4 record in the promotion, with all losses coming by way of a man-handling on the mat. Stevenson’s wrestling, pace, and submission defense make this a terrible fight for Danzig, as he’ll find himself fighting off his back for the entire match-up against someone well-equipped to defeat him in that realm. In a grappling and boxing clinic, Stevenson takes the fight to Danzig and walks away with a decision win before moving back up the ladder.

Sean McCorkle – MMAMoneyLine (+130 on BetUS)

Sean McCorkle will be making his second UFC appearance against tough as nails Stefan Struve.  McCorkle is coming off an impressive submission victory against veteran Mark Hunt (impressive because he was able to beat a vet like Hunt in his UFC debut, not because he was able to submit the very submittable Hunt).  McCorkle will have his hands full against the savvy Struve.

Stefan Struve’s advantages in most of his fights are his height, toughness, and submission acumen.  Against McCorkle, his height will be negated. McCorkle is 6’7″ compared to Struve’s 6’11″.  While there is still a four inch difference, McCorkle will have an obvious strength advantage over the gangly Netherlands native.  This strength advantage for McCorkle will manifest itself both on the feet and on the floor.  Struve’s toughness will be tested often by McCorkle, and although the Skyscraper is very hard to KO, he has been rocked several times by lesser competition (see Christian Morecraft, Paul Buentello, Denis Stojnic).

While Struve has the ability to get a sneaky sub on the undefeated McCorkle, he is going to take a beating just to get the chance.  McCorkle will be able to beat Struve to the punch, handle Struve’s submission attempts, and muscle Struve around the octagon.  Sean McCorkle by TKO in the second looks good, especially when Big Sexy is at +140.

Jesse Bongfeldt – MMAMoneyLine (+140 on Sportsbook)

Jesse “Water” Bongfeldt (see what he did there?) will be making his UFC debut against Rafael Natal.  You may know Natal as the guy who beat Travis Lutter on the indie circuit and lost against Rich Attonito in his UFC debut.  Sapo also holds a victory over UFC and WEC vet Danillo Villefort.

Bongfeldt holds victories over fellow UFC 124 participants  TJ Grant and Sean Pierson.  Beating Grant with a submission is an impressive feat, and speaks volumes about Bong’s grappling skills.  Both Natal and Bongfeldt have the ability to win by knockout or submission, are similar in height and weight, and have fought top level competition.

In the end, I’m leaning towards Bongfeldt because of his impressive outing against Grant in 2008.  He is tough and has hung in there through some real beatings and pulled out the victory.  Compared to Natal’s hesitant, almost lackadaisical fight style, I believe Bongfeldt might be more motivated.  The fact that he is an underdog at +130 makes a bet on him even more appealing.  Bongfeldt by unanimous decision.

Sean Pierson – MMAMoneyLine (+250 on Sportsbook)

Like many other MMA analysts and bloggers, I too believe Matt Riddle versus Sean Pierson is a coin flip.  The odds say different, as Pierson is currently a +250 underdog on Sportsbook.  Both guys have the same strengths:  wrestling, aggressiveness, strength.  To be honest with you, I think Matt Riddle probably wins this fight slightly more than he loses, even though many knowledgeable people are picking Pierson for the upset.  However, as a smart bettor you have to play the numbers here.  Getting Sean Pierson at 29% is a risk worth taking.

John Makdessi – MMAMoneyLine (+120 on Sportsbook)

Both John Makdessi and his opponent Pat Audinwood have found success against mid-level opposition.  Each guy has been in the cage with one top level caliber fighter in Bendy Casimir and Thiago Tavares respectively.  This fight will be a styles clash, as Makdessi has very dangerous kickboxing and Audinwood has sound grappling.

I wasn’t too impressed with Audinwood in his first UFC fight against Tavares…however I will give him the benefit of the doubt in that Tavares is a talented veteran.  On the other hand, I’ve been hearing a lot about Makdessi.  He trains with Georges St. Pierre’s striking coach, Firas Zahabi, and has numerous kickboxing medals and accolades.

What makes this fight most difficult for Audinwood is the lethal striking/take down defense combo that Makdessi possesses.  Audinwood is going to take some shots in order to get a chance to use his bread and butter submission game.  I’m going with Makdessi here…better striking, better training, better power.

MMAMoneyLine Official Picks:

St. Pierre/TKO/3

McCorkle/TKO/2

Oliveira/SUB/2

Stevenson/UD

Alves/KO/2

Bocek/SD

Almeida/SUB/2

Miller/UD

Bongfeldt/UD

Pierson/UD

Makdessi/TKO/3

MMAMoneyLine Official Wagers (1 unit = 2% of bankroll):

McCorkle -.5 u. at +130 on BetUS

Bongfeldt -.5 u. at +145 on BetUS

Pierson -.5 u. at +250 on Sportsbook

Makdessi – .5 u. at +120 on Sportsbook

Anyone else think Kendall Grove looks like George Sotiropoulos in that picture?  Anyway, tonight’s Ultimate Fighter 12 Finale takes place in Las Vegas (translated from Spanish to English as “The Meadows”), Nevada.  The main event, if it could be called that, features former UFC savior Stephan Bonnar squaring off against James Irvin eye crusher Igor Pokrajac.  Jonathan Brookins and Michael Johnson will also be duking it out for a six figure UFC contract.  Rounding out the card will be an interesting scrap between BJJ ace Demian Maia and former TUF champ Kendall Grove.

As with any other TUF finale card, there is money to be made for the smart yet risky sports bettor.  Because there are so many fighter that so many people know so little about, fight lines tend to be a little off.  Myself and Mike Hammersmith of MMAHive will be discussing our best bets for tonight’s Ultimate Fighter 12 Finale. Before making any wagers on tomorrow’s card, make sure to stay up to date on The Ultimate Fighter 12 Finale odds and check out who other well-informed MMA bloggers are picking over at MMAMoneyLine’s The Ultimate Fighter 12 Finale Pros’ Picks.  And here we go…

Fredson Paixao – Mike Hammersmith -165 on Bodog/Sportsbook)

Coming off of a tough short-notice loss to Chinese MMA pioneer Tie Quan Zhang, the UFC has decided to throw Pablo Garza to the lions, giving him to BJJ ace Fredson Paixao. While Garza showed some skills in his first WEC bout, he has loose transitions and submission skills, showing potential, but a great deal of inexperience with his mat work. The worst possible match for someone like that is to face a strong fundamental grappler, who will shut down their offense and easily work their way into superior positions to win. Paixao is just such a fighter, as a highly-regarded BJJ black belt with wrestling skills to boot, making a near impossible fight for Garza. Short of a fast KO on someone known for their conservative approach, Paixao should easily take down and tap out Garza in the first round.  Bookies don’t seem to agree with me, starting Paixao’s line ridiculously low and making for a huge payday with a heavy bet at -165.

Rick Story – Mike Hammersmith (+175 on Bodog/Sportsbook)

Aaron Wilkinson – Mike Hammersmith (+105 on Sportsbook)

Kendall Grove – MMAMoneyLine (+300 on Bodog)

When this line came out, it was one of those “yeowwww, that line is off” moments for me.  Kendall Grove at +300 against Demian Maia?  Thank you, sir.  Listen, I know Maia is a BJJ bad ass.  You don’t submit that many UFC caliber guys by luck.  However, we have to look at the numbers:  Maia is giving up a half of a foot in height and God knows how many inches reach and Kendall Grove has only been submitted once in his career (five years ago).

Can Demian Maia submit Kendall Grove?  Absolutely…he has the ability to submit anyone in the division.  However, Maia is going to have to get Grove to the ground to submit him.  If Kendall had any game plan whatsoever, he would use his striking to keep Maia at bay.  Grove is a very skilled striker, which compliments his height very well.  When he does lose, he generally loses to heavy handed strikers (Mark Munoz, Jorge Rivera, Patrick Cote, etc).  His striking coupled with a decent sprawl could be all it takes to get a decision.

At the end of the day, Maia is a pure jits guy no matter what anyone says.  The guys striking blows…sorry Dan Miller.  Maia has to contend with Grove’s stand up, not to mention his average to good submission defense.  I can see Grove hitting Maia hard, Maia going for the panic double leg, and Grove finishing him off with hammer fists.  I think Kendall Grove is a good bet here at far worse odds; at +300 he’s a gift.

Leonard Garcia – MMAMoneyLine (-170 on Bookmaker/SportBet)

Nam Phan is overrated.  I should just end this analysis at that sentence, but I will elaborate so I don’t get called out for being lazy.  Every name that Phan ever fought he lost to (Omigawa, Evangelista, Cavalcante, Thomson, McCullough).  I wasn’t impressed by Phan’s performance on the reality show, and I think he has a hell of a test in front of him.

Leonard Garcia is borderline impossible to knock out, so we can throw that possibility out.  Garcia also has an underrated ground game, well deserved by his penchant to stand and bang with everyone he fights.  If Nam Phan does take Garcia down, a submission victory will be hard to come by.  I just cannot see a way for Nam Phan to get a W here outside of outpointing Garcia for three rounds.  To do that, he needs to have the chin and balls to stand in front of Leonard Garcia.  Rough deal…I’ll take my chances with “The Haymaker” (Leonard, if you’re reading this…that is your new nickname).

MMAMoneyLine Official Picks:

Bonnar/SD

Brookins/SUB/1

Grove/TKO/2

Hendricks/UD

Garcia/KO/2

Attonito/UD

Paixao/SUB/2

Campuzano/SD

Wilkinson/UD

Toner/TKO/2

Watson/UD

MMAMoneyLine Official Wagers (1 unit = 2% of bankroll):

Grove – .5 u. at +300 on Bodog

Garcia – 1.5 u. at -175 on Bodog

Wilkinson – 1 u. at +105 on Sportsbook