MMABettingBlog WatchKalibRun MMAConvert MiddleEasy MMAAdNet MMAValor MMAMafia Total Anderson Silva vs. Chael Sonnen Silva Silva Silva Silva – Silva Sonnen Silva 83% Jon Fitch vs. Thiago Alves Fitch Fitch Fitch Fitch – Fitch Fitch Fitch 100% Junior dos Santos vs. Roy Nelson Nelson dos Santos dos Santos Nelson – dos Santos […]
UFC 117 – Silva VS. Sonnen takes place tonight, August 7th in Oakland, California. The main event is one of the more intriguing Middleweight championship bouts in quite some time. UFC Middleweight champion Anderson Silva will be looking to continue his reign over the 185 lb. division against world-class wrestler Chael Sonnen. Sonnen’s unrelenting (and […]
UFC 117 – Silva VS. Sonnen takes place tonight, August 7th in Oakland, California. The main event is one of the more intriguing Middleweight championship bouts in quite some time. UFC Middleweight champion Anderson Silva will be looking to continue his reign over the 185 lb. division against world-class wrestler Chael Sonnen. Sonnen’s unrelenting (and extremely entertaining) trash talk has turned this fight into must-see TV. Also appearing on the UFC 117 card is a number one contender fight between former Welterweight title challengers Jon Fitch and Thiago Alves.
Without further adieu, here are myself and Mike Hammersmith‘s best bets for tonight’s UFC 117 card. Make sure to check out the Pros’ Picks as well! Enjoy the fights and best of luck with your bets.
Perhaps not the pick you thought you’d see here, but hear me out. In the world of MMA betting, there are certain fundamentals that must be followed to properly predict the sport, such as stylistic differences, where a fight is likely to take place, etc, I feel the first fundamental of fight predictions is this: “You have to take your heart out of the fight.” While I may love certain fighters and despise others, the fact of the matter is they all have strengths and weaknesses to consider, and “I like/hate them” has nothing to do with how the fight will play out. Oftentimes with a beloved champion, you can never imagine someone could possibly come by and walk all over them, but such may be the case here with Chael Sonnen.
For me, this fight has a lot to do with technicalities and intangibles, and we’ll start with a look at the current champion Anderson Silva. Silva is perhaps the best technical striker to ever step into the cage, with a combination of accuracy, power, reflexes and sound fundamentals that make other great fighters look absolutely silly in comparison. Much like BJ Penn, I feel a focused and ready Anderson Silva, given the right opponent, is one of the best fighters you could hope for, and would go as far as to say he’s basically unbeatable against any kind of striker across any weight class. Two things stick out at me about Silva though, which leads me to believe he may be losing his belt on August 7th. One is that, while he puts on amazing displays against guys like Chris Leben, Rich Franklin and Forrest Griffin, he can’t seem to find a will to win against guys like Patrick Cote, Demian Maia and Thales Leites. Being the greatest counter-striker in the sport is all well and good, but when you’re fighting someone who refuses to engage you on the feet, it shouldn’t lead to a twenty-five minute dance off. This leads to my second issue with Silva, that being his dedication to the sport.
Having talked about retirement for years, including leaving everything behind to pursue boxing, you have to question Silva’s motivation and dedication to being competitive in this sport. Silva strikes me as someone who likes a challenge, and looking at the situation realistically, in twelve fights under the UFC banner, he’s faced only three opponents who stood any chance of beating him (Lutter, Henderson, and Marquardt) and hasn’t faced anyone on his level in over two years. This, combined with threats from Dana White to fire him if he doesn’t take fights seriously, and we come to two scenarios. Either Silva will come into this fight with sometime to prove and attempt to destroy Sonnen, which I think will work more often than not, or he’ll come into this bout exactly as he has for his last several title defenses and play right into Sonnen’s game.
For Sonnen’s part of this, he brings several problems for Silva. Sonnen is easily the best pure wrestler Silva has ever faced, with a work ethic in the cage that would kill most people, but perhaps his greatest asset is his mind. Sonnen comes from a wise camp in Team Quest, and Sonnen’s style has long been one of the least favorite of fans for one main reason. He understands the fight game well enough to be constantly active from top position, making stand-ups rare in his bouts, but isn’t so active as to open himself up for disaster. With irresistible takedowns and a top game that lives little room for victory for his opponent, Sonnen brings just enough to the fight to win, but not enough to entertain.
Breaking this fight down, I think Silva has a 40% chance of winning in the first round, and no chance of winning outside the second round. Sonnen will continuously move forward, dog every single takedown he can, and only really needs one per round to win this fight. This combined with Silva’s lack of cardio in recent bouts, and it’s not hard to imagine Sonnen losing the first round on points, and taking the next four by virtue of takedowns and control. With Sonnen having a slight edge in my book, his odds at +350 are very tempting, and I recommend a small wager here for the upset win.
One of many highly-decorated wrestlers in the UFC, Johny Hendricks is riding an undefeated streak in his career, and showing improvement in every fight. His combination of suffocating top control, clinch wrestling and dirty boxing have allowed him to work over guys like Amir Sadollah and TJ Grant in competitive bouts, and given the right opponent, I think we’ll be seeing Hendricks at the top of the division within the next year. I think his next bout against Charlie Brenneman is about the perfect fight for him, as Brenneman comes into this as a very green wrestler who will have no leg to stand on against someone as talented as Hendricks. While the odds aren’t spectacular, taking Hendricks at -380 would make the best anchor bet of the night in my mind, as Brenneman lacks the tools to take this fight from him.
Note: For my picks, I’m going to be giving a bit of an abbreviated version. Here are the main points for my three best picks.
Jon Fitch is an underdog against a guy coming off brain surgery…just throwing that out there. If this fight took place with both guys being healthy and at the top of their games, its close to a coin flip. But Thiago Alves is rusty and missed weight for this fight. Because he missed weight, it is likely that he will come into this fight bigger than Fitch, but with that being said Fitch is a huge Welterweight who doesn’t get bullied.
Fitch hasn’t been knocked out in his career, and I expect him to use his wrestling to wear down the Pitbull. I am going to question Alves’ late fight cardio here moreso than Fitch’s because of his drastic, last minute weight cut. This fight has a Fitch decision written all over it, and if you can get him at -115 or under it is worth a bet.
Our line of thinking when it comes to MMA is a very “what have you done for me lately” approach. That kind of thinking has bitten us in the ass before (see Takanori Gomi, Mauricio Rua, Randy Couture etc.). You hear the word “retire” tossed around pretty freely on MMA blogs and message boards for anyone who has had more than 10 fights in the UFC. Matt Hughes is no exception to this.
Lets look at the facts: Matt Hughes has lost to Thiago Alves, BJ Penn and Georges St. Pierre in recent memory. One of those guys is the best American Brazilian Jiu Jitsu player alive. One of those guys is arguably the best pound for pound fighter in the world. One of those guys practically came into the fight as a Light Heavyweight. By saying Ricardo Almeida is going to win this fight, we’re putting him on the Alves/Penn/St. Pierre level.
Almeida is an absolute BJJ beast; he has some of the best submissions in MMA. Beyond that…not a whole hell of a lot. I’m going to give the former champion and possibly the greatest Welterweight of all time some respect here. He has the experience, wrestling and submission defense to warrant a bet at -155.
I left out Dennis Hallman‘s name off of the “people that have beaten Matt Hughes” list because it was forever ago. Hallman’s return to the UFC has been dramatic; he was on his way to decisioning John Howard before getting KTFO. With that being said, Ben Saunders is no John Howard.
There’s no reason to delve too deeply into this fight. Ben Saunders is a gigantic Welterweight whose size is a problem for everyone but the best wrestlers in the division. He is a beast in the clinch, has good submissions himself and has the “might be a little nuts” mentality that takes people a long way in this sport. Hallman gets knocked out quick…and -220 is a gift line here.
The fact that Struve is better than -200 against a guy nobody has ever heard of is odd. Christian Morecraft‘s biggest tool is his size, but Struve is still bigger than him. Stefan Struve uses his long limbs very well on the ground and has very capable BJJ, especially for a guy his size. His striking is rudimentary at best, but he has a good chin and can use his striking to set up trips and takedowns.
Struve has been in there with some serious fighter. Whether hes won or lost, the experience gained from fighting the Junior dos Santos‘, Roy Nelson‘s and Paul Buentello‘s of the world give him an edge a newcomer like Christian Morecraft just doesn’t have. Look for a trip and submission win for the Skyscraper.
MMAMoneyLine Official Picks:
Silva/UD
Fitch/UD
dos Santos/TKO/2
Hughes/SD
dos Anjos/SUB/2
Boetsch/TKO/3
Saunders/KO/1
Hazelett/SUB/1
Hendricks/UD
Struve/SUB/1
Davis/SUB/1
MMAMoneyLine Official Wagers (1 unit = 2% of bankroll):
UFC On Versus 2 – Jones VS. Matyusheno takes place Sunday, August 1st in San Diego. The main event will feature Jon Jones’ toughest test of his career as he faces grizzled Belarussian veteran Vladimir Matyushenko. Also appearing on this card is a pivotal Middleweight fight between Yushin Okami and Mark Munoz. Without further adieu, […]
UFC On Versus 2 – Jones VS. Matyusheno takes place Sunday, August 1st in San Diego. The main event will feature Jon Jones’ toughest test of his career as he faces grizzled Belarussian veteran Vladimir Matyushenko. Also appearing on this card is a pivotal Middleweight fight between Yushin Okami and Mark Munoz.
Without further adieu, here are myself and Mike Hammersmith‘s best bets for tonight’s UFC On Versus card. Make sure to check out the Pros Picks as well!
The UFC never pretended to be fair in their match-making; showing definite favor towards some fighters, and mercilessly disposing of others, and with this in mind, it’s fairly obvious which camp Jon Jones is in. Having gained instant stardom with his upset victory over Andre Gusmao, and his wild arsenal of spinning strikes and five-point Greco-Roman throws, Jones has had a tailor-made path to the top of the division.
His next opponent is the gritty veteran Vladimir Matyushenko, whom stands as one of the several striker/wrestlers Jones has faced, and whom should prove to be an easy opponent to train for. This fight really does come down to training too, as the aging Matyushenko has started to show his age in his fights way back to his last matches IFL and comes into this fight with a predictable game plan and the wrong set of skills to deal with Jones. With Jones having trained for, fought, and defeated guys like Jake O’Brien and Matt Hamill, he’s essentially already worked on the blue print to beat Matyushenko, and comes into this fight a heavy favorite in my book.
Matyushenko doesn’t have the reach or fine technical skills to out-strike Jones, and with his speed gone, can never hope to shoot from outside Jones 84″ reach and catch a meaningful takedown. This fight is built to give Jones more experience and move him closer to the title picture, and while the payout is less than grand, a hearty bet at -560 is easy money.
Some may say he’s lucky to be undefeated in the UFC, but none can deny the talent of John “Doomsday” Howard. Having taken two split decision wins and delivered two KOs in his time inside the cage, Howard is making his main card debut after toiling in the dark matches, and will do so against another highly exciting fighter in Jake Ellenberger.
Both men have real KO power, fast transitions, and well-developed mat-work, with Howard having an advantage working off his back, while Ellenberger is likely the better striker of the two. When it comes down to it, I’d give a slight edge to Howard based on Ellenberger’s weakness working off his back, combined with Howard’s strong takedown skills. Sportbooks seem to be over-valuing Ellenberger here, making a small wager on Howard at +150 a good payout for a coin-flip fight.
It’s rare to see a fighter given a third opportunity in the UFC after going 0-2, but anyone who’s watched Igor Pokrajac’s appearances will know why. A sturdy wrestler with a natural talent on the feet, Pokrajac gave as good as he got in his fights with both Vladimir Matyushenko and James Te Huna, coming up just short on the scorecards, despite having both men in trouble in their bouts.
He’ll now be brought in against backsliding fighter James Irvin, who is also coming off of two losses, having only fought twice in the last two years. Irvin has had issues with everything from injury to failing drug tests to disastrous weight-cuts, and comes into this fight with little to offer except his incredible punching power. Punching power is the great equalizer, and when both men have it and are willing to trade, you end up with a very even fight. With that in mind, Pokrajac comes into this bout at +155 and makes for the best bet on the card, in my mind, for payout to risk.
Note: For my picks, I’m going to be giving a bit of an abbreviated version. Here are the main points for my three best picks.
Mark Munoz has been incredibly inconsistent, and has shown weakness in fights against Kendall Grove, Matt Hamill and Nick Catone. While Munoz has high level wrestling, he hasn’t used it well. Okami has better MMA-centric grappling and more technical striking. These to factors, in addition to Okami’s experience will allow him to expose the holes in Munoz’s still-developing MMA game en route to a decision victory. Throw a decent sized bet down on Okami over at Bodog.
If MMA betting has taught me one valuable lesson, its not to bet on someone coming off an injury. While a healthy Mike Massenzio would probably be a slight favorite over Brian Stann, that is clearly not the case here. Massenzio hasn’t fought in 2 years and is getting some unfair respect over a guy who lost to Phil Davis (editor’s note: everyone loses to Phil Davis). Stann’s improving game is the polar opposite of Massenzio’s injury troubles…in MMA you need to fight to improve. Stann is a very exciting pick at +140.
Charles Oliveira is overrated in my opinion. Word on the street is that he’s quite the prospect, but word on the next street is that his striking is sloppy and he’s fairly one dimensional. Yes, his BJJ will be worlds above anything Darren Elkins possesses. However, I think the +300 line on the UFC-tested Elkins is worth a play because Oliveira will have to submit him to win. Elkins is at least worth a look at this pretty inflated line.
MMAMoneyLine Official Picks:
Jones/KO/2
Okami/UD
Ellenberger/TKO/2
Griffin/UD
Kelly/SUB/3
Pokrajac/TKO/1
Riddle/SUB/1
Stann/UD
Kimmons/UD
Elkins/TKO/2
MMAMoneyLine Official Wagers (1 unit = 2% of bankroll):
MMABettingBlog WatchKalibRun MMAConvert MiddleEasy MMAAdNet MMAValor MMAMafia Total Brock Lesnar vs. Shane Carwin Lesnar Carwin Lesnar Carwin Carwin Carwin Carwin Carwin 71% Yoshihiro Akiyama vs. Chris Leben Akiyama Akiyama Akiyama Akiyama Leben Akiyama Leben Akiyama 71% Chris Lytle vs. Matt Brown Lytle Lytle Lytle Brown Lytle Lytle Lytle Lytle 86% […]
The Ultimate Fighter 11 Finale takes place this Saturday, June 19 in Las Vegas, Nevada. The new main draw for the capstone event of The Ultimate Fighter 11 reality show will be finalists Court McGee and Kris McCray vying for a UFC contract. The old main event, now assumed the co-main event will be a […]
The Ultimate Fighter 11 Finale takes place this Saturday, June 19 in Las Vegas, Nevada. The new main draw for the capstone event of The Ultimate Fighter 11 reality show will be finalists Court McGee and Kris McCray vying for a UFC contract. The old main event, now assumed the co-main event will be a Light Heavyweight scrap between Matt Hamill and Keith Jardine. Along with these four fighters, TUF 11 participants Jamie Yager, Rich Attonito, Kyle Noke and several others will join the likes of veterans Chris Leben, Aaron Simpson and Spencer Fisher to round out the card.
To be perfectly honest, I don’t see much betting value in this card. There are so many variables with TUF fights that I generally either bet very small amounts or stay away completely. My friend Mike Hammersmith is passing on this card completely, and I can’t really blame him. I personally only feel good about one bet on this card, which I will go into later. For now, check out MMAMoneyLine’s The Ultimate Fighter 11 Finale Pros’ Picks and the current odds for research purposes.
The guys over at CagePotato did a pretty solid writeup on UFC newcomer Mark Holst. Holst is currently 8-1 with equal knockout and submission victories. His latest win was a locked up kimura against former UFC fighter Corey Hill in March.
When you try out for The Ultimate Fighter and instead of making the show you skip right to a UFC card, it’s impressive (replacement or not). The UFC sees something in the Canadian…it’s not exactly like they’re looking for a can to feed to the surging John Gunderson. Holst is a consummate well rounded mixed martial artist with serious Muay Thai and grappling credentials, not to mention training logged under some of MMA’s best coaches.
Betting on Holst is a bit of a risk seeing as its his first UFC fight, but I’ve not been exactly blown away by Gunderson. Don’t get me wrong, he certainly has a chance to use his pace and wrestling to put Holst on his back. However, I believe the John Gunderson that was controlled by Rafaello Oliveira gets eaten up by Holst. Holst has the tools to finish this fight anywhere, but I think he will walk away with a decisive decision. At the current price Holst is going for, I strongly recommend at least a flier on the UFC newcomer outclassing the vet.
MMAMoneyLine Official Picks:
McGee/SUB/2
Jardine/SD
Simpson/UD
Fisher/TKO/2
Yager/KO/1
Holst/UD
Browne/KO/2
Tavares/UD
Bryant/SD
Hammortree/KO/1
MMAMoneyLine Official Wagers (1 unit = 2% of bankroll):
**Disclaimer – These are the odds I made the bets at, not necessarily the odds at the time of this posting. Although I made these bets, I don’t necessarily recommend them. I’m putting a bit of a flier on both Bryant and Hammortree because of injuries sustained by Noke and Camozzi respectively; I believe the odds to be off, but still too risky to recommend.**
