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Now is as good of a time as any to give everyone an update on MMAMoneyLine’s 2010 “Pros’ Picks” contest. It’s pretty close (as expected), but Zak from WatchKalibRun is currently wearing the yellow jersey. Steve from MMAConvert and Mike over at MMAMafia are hot on his heels.

I always recommend that MMA bettors check out MMAMoneyLine’s “Pros’ Picks” before a fight. All of the “Pros’ Picks” participants are very knowledgeable about MMA. Using “Pros’ Picks” as a resource can absolutely improve your bankroll.

Once again, congrats to Zak from WatchKalibRun for the early dominance. In addition, props to the guys over at MMABettingBlog for a stellar job at UFC 110. Stay tuned for updates!

	MMABettingBlog	WatchKalibRun	MMAConvert	MiddleEasy	MMAAdNet	MMAValor	MMAMafia	MMAMoneyLine
UFC 110	7-2	6-3	5-4	6-3	3-6	6-3	4-5	4-4
UFC 109	6-5	6-5	7-4	7-4	7-4	7-4	8-3	7-4
Strikeforce – Miami	4-2	5-1	4-2	3-3	5-1	4-2	4-2	3-3
UFC Fight Night 20	8-2	8-2	9-1	7-3	4-6	8-2	7-3	7-3
WEC 46	6-4	5-5	5-4	7-3	9-1	6-4	7-3	8-2
UFC 108	–	8-2	7-3	4-6	6-4	5-5	7-3	7-3
Total	31-15 (67%)	38-18 (68%)	37-18 (67%)	34-22 (61%)	34-22 (61%)	36-20 (64%)	37-19 (66%)	36-19 (65%)

	MMABettingBlog	WatchKalibRun	MMAConvert	MiddleEasy	MMAAdNet	MMAValor	MMAMafia	Total
Cain Velasquez vs. Antonio Nogueira	Velasquez	Velasquez	Nogueira	Nogueira	Nogueira	Velasquez	Nogueira	Nogueira 57%
Wanderlei Silva vs. Michael Bisping	Bisping	Silva	Silva	Silva	Silva	Silva	Silva	Silva 86%
Mirko Filipovic vs. Anthony Perosh	Filipovic	Filipovic	Filipovic	Filipovic	Filipovic	Filipovic	Filipovic	Filipovic 100%
Ryan Bader vs. Keith Jardine	Bader	Bader	Jardine	Bader	Jardine	Bader	Jardine	Bader 57%
Joe Stevenson vs. George Sotiropoulos	Stevenson	Stevenson	Stevenson	Stevenson	Sotiropoulos	Stevenson	Stevenson	Stevenson 86%
Krzysztof Soszynski vs. Stephan Bonnar	Soszynski	Soszynski	Soszynski	Soszynski	Bonnar	Soszynski	Soszynski	Soszynski 86%
Goran Reljic vs. CB Dollaway	Dollaway	Reljic	Reljic	Reljic	Reljic	Reljic	Reljic	Reljic 86%
Chris Lytle vs. Brian Foster	Lytle	Foster	Lytle	Lytle	Foster	Lytle	Foster	Lytle 57%
James Te Huna vs. Igor Pokrajac	Te Huna	Te Huna	Te Huna	Te Huna	Pokrajac	Pokrajac	Te Huna	Te Huna 71%
Tiebreak	Velasquez/TKO/3	Velasquez/UD	Nogueira/SUB/2	Nogueira/SUB/2	Nogueira/KO/2	Velasquez/UD	Nogueira/UD	–
Total	7/9 (78%)	6/9 (67%)	5/9 (56%)	6/9 (67%)	3/9 (33%)	6/9 (67%)	4/9 (44%)	MMABettingBlog

UFC 110 – Nogueira VS. Velasquez takes place this Saturday, February 21st in sunny Sydney, Australia.  In the UFC’s maiden voyage to the lonely continent, former UFC and PRIDE Heavyweight champion Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira will take on young gun Cain Velasquez.  The co-main event will showcase Wanderlei Silva’s first foray into the Middleweight division under the Zuffa banner as he takes on former TUF winner and coach Michael Bisping.

UFC 110 is interesting from a sports betting perspective because it’s marked by a feeling of “win or you’re out”.  Several fighters on this card are in serious slumps, and guys like Stephan Bonnar, Keith Jardine, Wanderlei Silva and Mirko Filipovic sorely need a victory.  This sort of desperation should absolutely factor into your betting strategy, as there is rarely something more dangerous than a man with his back against a wall.

As per the format of MMAMoneyLine’s predictions, I will only cover the fights that have betting value.  Depending on which way you look at it, UFC 110 could either be chock full of solid betting opportunities or riddled with potential wagering disasters.  I happen to be the former.  Here are MMAMoneyLine’s betting recommendations for UFC 110.

Cain Velasquez VS. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira

It’s been quite a while since the UFC has put on a card where the two main fights were so competitive.  The line for this fight looked much different a few months ago than it does now:  Antonio Nogueira was almost a -250 favorite, with Cain Velasquez inching toward being a +200 underdog.  A ton of money has been coming in on Velasquez since these odds opened, and Velasquez is the favorite on all sports books as of this posting.

The odds have evened out to better reflect how close this fight really is.  No way was Rodrigo a -250 favorite.  Conversely, Velasquez was far from a 33% to win underdog.  The current line is pretty close to right in my opinion, however I still believe there is a betting opportunity to be had here.

Minotauro Nogueira has world class Brazilian Jiu Jitsu and Judo, holding a black belt in both.  He is also an underrated boxer, showing his technical skill and punching power in his last fight against Randy Couture.  Nogueira brings these exceptional skill sets together with legendary toughness, impressive conditioning and high level experience.  It also doesn’t hurt to train with guys like Anderson Silva, Lyoto Machida and Mark Munoz.

We all know what type of fighter CainVelasquez is.  He, along with Lesnar and Carwin, personify the new breed of Heavyweight mixed martial artist:  big, strong, athletic wrestlers with dangerous punching power.  Velasquez has an All-American collegiate wrestling pedigree, a Brazilian Jiu Jitsu purple belt and some seriously improving striking thanks to American Kickboxing Academy.

There are several questions in this fight that make it so interesting and competitive.  As far as I’m concerned, the two main concerns in this bout is whether Velasquez can implement successful top control on Nogueira and whether Nogueira can handle the abuse Velasquez will undoubtedly inflict.

The Couture/Nogueira fight showed us a lot about Nogueira’s overall ground game, not just his submission game.  He was able to sweep Couture several times, not an easy task considering Randy Couture is one of the best wrestlers in MMA.  I know Velasquez is much bigger and stronger than Couture, but how am I supposed to believe Cain will avoid a sweep when Couture couldn’t?  Even if Velasquez does hold top control for an extended period, avoiding Nogueira’s bottom submission game is easier said than done.

Velasquez does have the power to catch Nogueira on the feet, although betting on Rodrigo’s iron chin to crack isn’t wise.  Minotauro is the more technical striker, a very important edge in a contest with no reach advantage.  Giving Cain his due, I think the Kongo/Velasquez fight proved to many of us that Velasquez is no slouch in the chin department either.

Cain Velasquez has to fight the perfect fight to beat Antonio Nogueira.  He has to either knock out a man who is famous for being impossible to finish, or maintain top control on one of the greatest Heavyweight Brazilian Jiu Jitsu players in MMA history.  Don’t expect a Cain Velasquez striking-fueled decision:  he doesn’t have the skill or experience to stand with Nogueira for 15 minutes and get the better of him.  This fight will be close but I always bet against a fighter fighting the perfect fight, this being no exception.  Nogueira wins two out of three rounds, but takes a split due to judging ignorance.

My pick:  Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira via split decision.

Betting play: Nogueira advocates, your patience has paid off.  If you can get Nogueira for better than even money, it is a great bet.  MMAMoneyLine recommends a moderate to heavy play on Antonio Nogueira at +105 on SportBet or 5Dimes.

Mirko Filipovic VS. Ben Rothwell

In what could very well be his swan song (I’ve probably said that about 4 times now), Mirko Filipovic takes on former IFL standout Ben Rothwell.  Before getting into my analysis here, I have a brief message for MMA bettors out there:  it makes no sense to put money on the Cro Cop of ‘05/06 beating the Ben Rothwell who got stopped by Velasquez.  Believing that the Cro Cop that is in Australia right now is the same guy that had those great fights against Wanderlei Silva, Fedor Emelianenko and Josh Barnett is a mistake…he is not the same guy.  Here’s a quick breakdown of Filipovic’s last 7 fights:

-got killed by Junior dos Santos

-beat Mustapha al Turk with an eye poke

-won a freak show fight against Hong Man

-was lucky to get out of the Overeem fight with a DQ, he was getting soundly beaten

-beat a can

-looked uninspired in a loss to Cheick Kongo

-got knocked out by Gabriel Gonzaga

This fight isn’t as much about Rothwell’s abilities as it is about Filipovic’s deterioration.  He has looked uninspired and unsure of himself since knocking out Eddie Sanchez in his UFC debut three years ago.  He has gone through much mental anguish over his latest career developments, and one has to wonder where he’s at now mentally.  Physically speaking, everyone knows how powerful that head kick is but he doesn’t seem to throw it with the same intentions anymore.  The Cro Cop of old would let six or seven of those fly a night, every one with a one way ticket to the hospital attached.

If the Cro Cop who fought Gonzaga, Kongo, al Turk and dos Santos shows up against Rothwell, I don’t even know if he gets the better of the striking exchanges.  Rothwell is a tough, experienced, well rounded fighter who’s been in the cage/ring against some big names before.  He isn’t afraid of anyone, and will be willing to use his brute striking attack against a timid Filipovic.  I also believe that Rothwell will be the first fighter in a while to put Cro Cop on his back.  If this fight hits the mat, Cro Cop will be in deep water against a fighter with 11 submission victories and an overall punishing top game.

If Cro Cop gets a vintage knockout against a tough vet like Rothwell, nobody will be happier than this guy.  The return of “right leg, hospital – left leg, cemetery” would be a treat for hardcore MMA fans.  However, recent history has made me doubt that particular outcome.  I believe Cro Cop will take a round off Rothwell, probably the first due to the feeling out process and better technical striking.  However, Big Ben gets the last laugh with a bullying ground and pound TKO.

My pick:  Ben Rothwell via TKO in the 3rd

Betting play: If Rothwell was able to do anything against Velasquez, he would have been a favorite here.  However, I still think he’s being undervalued against a fighter deep into the twilight of his career.  Rothwell at +130 on Sportsbook has the MMAMoneyLine stamp of approval. Using this underdog play to cover your Nogueira bet wouldn’t be a bad strategy.

 

Ryan Bader VS. Keith Jardine

Keith Jardine hasn’t gotten an easy fight in 3 years.  Ironically, the last gimme fight “The Dean of Mean” was handed was a crushing defeat against an unknown Nebraska DJ.  Excluding his loss to Alexander in May 2007, he fought Forrest Griffin, Chuck Liddell, Wanderlei Silva, Brandon Vera, Quinton Jackson and Thiago Silva in less than 3 years.  Going 3-3 against that group is pretty remarkable.

I totally agree with Mike Hammersmith from MMAMafia:  Jardine is a guy who is always undervalued on sportsbooks.  Jardine’s three most recent losses have all come against the same type of fighter:  aggressive, risk taking, violent strikers.  Ryan Bader might not fit the mold of fighters who’ve tasted victory against Jardine, but his wrestling cannot be understated.  Bader is an absolute animal; a very athletic, explosive wrestler who throws bombs.  Bader’s wrestling has the potential to give Keith Jardine a lot of problems because I honestly can’t even name the last time I saw Jardine defend a takedown.

Although Keith Jardine does have a wrestling background and trains with one of the best wrestlers at Light Heavyweight in Rashad Evans, he will be outmatched on the mat.  Bader has shown in his fight against Marrero that he can beat a good wrestler.  The good news for Jardine is that he will have a pretty sizable striking advantage over the wild punching Bader.  Jardine’s unorthodox striking has given very seasoned strikers problems, and will no doubt be very difficult for a relative MMA novice in Bader to deal with.  I believe Jardine’s stamina will give him an advantage in the later rounds if he can avoid a Bader haymaker.

Bader would be nuts to stand with Jardine.  A guy with the resume of Keith Jardine isn’t going to be scared of Ryan Bader.  Jardine’s deadly leg kicks and oddly effective striking would be a nightmare for Bader.  However, I do believe Ryan Bader is disciplined enough to stick to a smart game plan and use a lot of double legs against Jardine.  If Bader is able to take Jardine down and keep him there, he wins this fight.  If Jardine can use his wrestling in reverse and keep the fight standing, he wins this fight.  This one is very close, but I give the edge to Bader and his wrestling ability.

My pick:  Ryan Bader via unanimous decision

Betting play: Although I think Bader takes this fight about 55-60% of the time, the smart bet here in on Jardine.  He is at +135 (43%) on Bodog and 5Dimes.  It may be a small edge, but small edges make money.  MMAMoneyLine likes a small bet on Jardine’s striking and experience.

Chris Lytle VS. Brian Foster

In an under card bout, consummate UFC vet Chris Lytle will be looking to stop the momentum of Brian Foster.  This one is going to be pretty explosive; if you can find a sports book that pays out Fight Of The Night, make this fight your bet.

We know what Lytle is all about.  He is a former pro boxer with (obvious) good hands.  He has a solid ground game as well, but primarily uses it only if it’s given to him or in the event of an emergency.  Lytle’s best asset is his toughness.  If you can name the last time Lytle was knocked out or submitted, you’re full of shit…it never happened.  He’s been stopped twice because of cuts, but the rest of his losses (15 to be exact) have been via decision.

For a guy who is a pretty sizable underdog, Brian Foster has a lot going for him.  He’s a very well rounded fighter.  Like Lytle, Foster is dangerous at all times when inside the octagon.  By training at HIT Squad, Foster also has the tutelage of Matt Hughes and Robbie Lawler…two fighters who hold victories over Lytle.  Since Lytle’s style doesn’t change much, information from his former opponents could prove very important.

The only thing that should worry Brian Foster in this fight is Lytle’s submission game.  Although “Lights Out” is a former boxer, he’s had 17 submission wins.  Out of Foster’s four career losses, three have been by way of the tap.  If Foster can keep his head and not get overzealous on the mat, he’ll be fine.

Overall, I like Foster here.  I have a ton of respect for Chris Lytle, but all those wars are wearing on him.  I think Brian Foster is going to me more aggressive than Lytle’s recent opponents and really press the action.  Foster looked real good picking up the pace against a tough Brock Larson.  He also showed his toughness by taking two illegal hits and still dominating the fight.  When you have a young, hungry fighter pressing the action against a vet who may have lost a step, I like the former’s odds.

My pick:  Foster via unanimous decision

Betting play: Foster at +145 on Sportsbook might be the best play on this card.  Lytle is clearly overvalued against a very dangerous fighter not many people know about.  MMAMoneyLine recommends a good sized underdog play on Brian Foster.

MMAMoneyLine Official Picks:

Nogueira/Split Decision

Silva/KO/2

Rothwell/TKO/3

Bader/Unanimous Decision

Stevenson/SUB/2

Soszynski/Unanimous Decision

Reljic/TKO/2

Foster/Unanimous Decision

Te Huna/TKO/1

Sinosic/SUB/1

 

MMAMoneyLine Official Wagers (1 unit = 2% of bankroll):

Nogueira – 2 u. at +105

Serra – 1.25 u at +130

Jardine – .25 u at +135

Foster – 1.5 u at +145

UFC 109 – Relentless is going down this Saturday, February 6th in Las Vegas.  The main event pits one UFC Hall of Famer against another as former UFC Heavyweight and Light Heavyweight champion Randy Couture takes on former UFC Heavyweight and PRIDE Grand Prix champion Mark Coleman.  In addition, the next contender for the UFC Middleweight belt will be decided as Nate Marquardt squares off against Chael Sonnen.

From a betting perspective, this is the UFC first card in a while to have 5 fights hovering around the -400/+300 mark.  With that being said, there are a few strong betting opportunities to look for this weekend.  As per the future format of MMAMoneyLine’s predictions, I will only cover the fights that have betting value.  Here are MMAMoneyLine’s betting recommendations for UFC 109.

Mike Swick vs. Paulo Thiago

These top 10 Welterweights will both be looking to rebound from losses against Dan Hardy and Jon Fitch respectively.  Mike Swick is a late replacement for teammate Josh Koscheck, who was first scheduled to avenge his upset loss against Paulo Thiago but was forced to pull out with an injury.  I don’t believe that will be a real factor in this fight for either guy seeing as they both still had more than adequate time to prepare.

Mike Swick is a technically sound striker who is extremely difficult to take down.  He is very well rounded with several submission wins on his UFC record, and is also very big considering he is a converted Middleweight.  Even though Thiago’s name was made off of Josh Koscheck’s chin, the Brazilian’s bread and butter is still his black belt level Judo and Jiu Jitsu.

Many people look to the Thiago/Fitch fight as a reason to support a Thiago pick here.  After all, Paulo did very well against one of the top WWs in the world in only his second fight in the UFC, albeit a loss.  However, Fitch is a completely different fighter than Swick.  Mike Swick has no desire for this fight to go to the ground, and Thiago is going to have to try very hard to get him there.

If Swick uses his reach to control the distance in this fight, I like his odds.  Thiago’s not a Dan Hardy level striker, and his best shot in this fight is getting Swick in close quarters and using his Judo to bring him down.  Thiago doesn’t have a double leg that is going to be able to get Swick horizontal, so that is one less thing for the AKA mixed martial artist to worry about.  Swick also has the advantage of two teammates who have been in the cage with Thiago…which is valuable information indeed.

Mike Swick has too many advantages in this fight, plain and simple.  Thiago is very capable of giving Swick the Koscheck treatment, but Swick is a more technical striker than Koscheck.  Thiago is also more than capable of submitting Swick, but it’s going to be very difficult to get into a position to submit him without taking on a ton of punishment.  Thiago will get antsy after getting picked apart in the first, make a move and pay for it a la Ben Saunders.

My pick:  Mike Swick via TKO in the 2nd round

Betting play: I personally took Swick at -200, and you can still get him at that line on Bodog and Sportsbook.  Those odds put Swick in the winner’s circle 66% of the time, and I believe his odds are closer to 70-75% with a stylistic matchup like this.  MMAMoneyLine recommends a strong bet on Mike Swick at -200.

Matt Serra VS. Frank Trigg

Even though this is a battle of no real relevance to the Welterweight belt, I am still looking forward to watching these two trash talking vets hook ‘em up.  I like both of these guys a lot, both inside and outside of the octagon, and this fight makes perfect sense.  Along with Couture and Coleman, these two fighters that we all grew up watching are going to be looking to prove they still have what it takes.

I believe confidence is going to play a huge factor here.  Neither one of these guys are short on confidence, and they shouldn’t be seeing the solid careers they have amassed.  However, Matt Serra is coming off of a real strong performance in a losing effort against Matt Hughes, while Frank Trigg is still feeling the after effects of a beating at the hands of Josh Koscheck.

I don’t think Trigg’s size advantage will give him much of an advantage here.  Yes, I know Serra is a blown up Lightweight and Trigg is a slimmed down Middleweight, but Serra has put in good performances against bullying Welterweights like Hughes and St. Pierre.

Frank Trigg is vulnerable to Serra’s powerful boxing and is also notorious for having sub-par submission defense.  These two facts do not bode well for Twinkle Toes.  I do believe Frank still has some left in the tank (it was awful to see his return to the octagon be against a juggernaut like Koscheck) but this is a poor fight for him.  I like the odds of Serra finding a home for a big shot fairly early.

My pick:  Matt Serra via KO in the first

Betting play: I think these odds are pretty off, and should be closer to -170/+140.  I’m not complaining though, I got Serra at -125 and I’d still recommend taking “the Terra” at -140 (58%) on 5Dimes or SportBet.

 

Ronnys Torres VS. Melvin Guillard

In my opinion, this fight is the most intriguing on the entire card.  I think oddsmakers agree with me, because the line has been all over the place.  On the surface, it looks like another predictable submission loss to the underachieving Melvin Guillard.  However, the New Orleans native has an ace in his sleeve…and his name is Greg Jackson.

Guillard will need all the help he can get against a guy with the BJJ of Ronnys Torres.  Even though he hasn’t fought since 2008, Torres will certainly test Guillard’s submission defense progress early and often.

Guillard most definitely has the striking ability to decapitate Torres in the first minute in this fight, while Torres won’t have much of a problem if he gets his hands on Guillard.  Torres won’t be content to stand in front of Guillard for an extended period of time like Nate Diaz did.  He will be looking to get this fight to the mat however possible.  Torres’ wrestling gives him the advantage here, and I don’t believe one training camp is enough for Melvin to change a career long weakness.

My pick:  Ronnys Torres via first round submission

Betting play: This fight is close, but I can’t ignore Torres as an underdog.  Torres should be about a -110 favorite here.  His best odds are +105 at BetUS.  MMAMoneyLine recommends a small to moderate bet on Torres on BetUS.

 

MMAMoneyLine Official Picks:

Couture/Split Decision

Swick/TKO/2

Maia/SUB/2

Marquardt/Unanimous Decision

Serra/KO/1

Danzig/SUB/3

Torres/SUB/1

Emerson/Split Decision

Davis/Unanimous Decision

Tuchscherer/TKO/3

Gracie/SUB/1

 

MMAMoneyLine Official Wagers (1 unit = 2% of bankroll):

Swick – 2 u at -200

Serra – 2 u at -125

Torres – .5 u at +105

	MMABettingBlog	WatchKalibRun	MMAConvert	MiddleEasy	MMAAdNet	MMAValor	MMAMafia	Total
Randy Couture vs. Mark Coleman	Couture	Couture	Couture	Coleman	Couture	Couture	Couture	Couture 86%
Mike Swick vs. Paulo Thiago	Swick	Swick	Swick	Thiago	Thiago	Swick	Thiago	Swick 57%
Demian Maia vs. Dan Miller	Maia	Maia	Maia	Maia	Maia	Maia	Maia	Maia 100%
Nate Marquardt vs. Chael Sonnen	Marquardt	Marquardt	Marquardt	Marquardt	Marquardt	Marquardt	Marquardt	Marquardt 100%
Matt Serra vs. Frank Trigg	Serra	Serra	Serra	Serra	Trigg	Serra	Serra	Serra 86%
Mac Danzig vs. Justin Buchholz	Danzig	Danzig	Danzig	Danzig	Danzig	Danzig	Danzig	Danzig 100%
Melvin Guillard vs. Ronnys Torres	Guillard	Torres	Guillard	Guillard	Guillard	Torres	Guillard	Guillard 71%
Rob Emerson vs. Phillipe Nover	Emerson	Nover	Nover	Nover	Emerson	Emerson	Nover	Nover 57%
Phil Davis vs. Brian Stann	Stann	Davis	Davis	Davis	Stann	Davis	Davis	Davis 71%
Chris Tuchscherer vs. Tim Hague	Hague	Tuchscherer	Tuchscherer	Hague	Tuchscherer	Tuchscherer	Tuchscherer	Tuchscherer 71%
Rolles Gracie vs. Joey Beltran	Gracie	Gracie	Gracie	Beltran	Gracie	Gracie	Gracie	Gracie 86%
Tiebreak	Couture/UD	–	Couture/UD	Coleman/UD	Couture/TKO/2	Couture/UD	Couture/UD	–
Total	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–

Strikeforce – Miami takes place this Saturday, January 30th in…well you don’t need me to tell you where it’s at now do you?  Two belts will be on the line this weekend, as Nick Diaz takes on DREAM’s Marius Zaromskis for the vacant Strikeforce Welterweight belt and Cristiane “Cyborg” Santos defends her Strikeforce Women’s Middleweight belt against Marloes Coenen.  Strikeforce – Miami will also mark the Strikeforce debut for pro wrestling star Bobby Lashley and NFL standout Herschel Walker.  Should be an interesting night of fights (and entertainment).

As per the future format of MMAMoneyLine’s predictions, I will only cover the fights that have betting value.  This card in particular has a few live dogs to discuss.  Without further adeiu, here are my betting recommendations and fight analysis for Strikeforce – Miami.

Nick Diaz vs. Marius Zaromskis

Since this is Marius Zaromskis‘ first appearance stateside, not many casual fans know who he is.  Not many people at all, hardcore fans alike, knew who he was before his 2009 DREAM Welterweight Grand Prix (and subsequent DREAM Welterweight) championship.  “The Whitemare” has exploded on the international MMA scene with a Cro Cop-esque highlight reel of head kick knockouts, and he will no doubt be looking to headhunt savvy vet Nick Diaz.

Everyone knows the elder Diaz’s MO:  punches in bunches, never ending cardio and world class jits.  He made Scott Smith look really, really bad in his last fight with his unorthodox boxing.  Diaz is a very well rounded fighter who would be best served using his boxing to set up a takedown and utilizing his superior matwork.

The question is whether Nick Diaz will go for the takedown or stand and bang with Zaromskis.  Many people think Diaz is going to run away with this fight, no matter where it goes.  I am opposed to this view.

Yes, if Diaz gets Zaromskis to the mat and keeps him there, the odds dramatically tilt in his favor.  However, Diaz is far from the best wrestler in MMA…wrestling is probably his weakest point.  He had a hell of a time getting KJ Noons down, and Karl doesn’t exactly come from a world class wrestling background.  Diaz tends to telegraph his shots, and took a face-slicing knee against Noons because of it.

I believe Diaz has a hard time taking The Whitemare to the mat and takes a lot of punishment trying.  As Tomas Rios pointed out, Diaz’s poor striking defense will leave him very vulnerable to a more powerful Zaromskis.  Marius Zaromskis isn’t a brawler like Smith, and he will capitalize on Diaz’s shortcomings in impressive fashion.  That head kick is going to get through, and when it does…it’s over.

My pick: Marius Zaromskis via TKO in the 2nd

Betting play: I liked Zaromskis when his odds came out at +160 and like him even more now.  This fight is very close to a coin flip in my mind taking into account Diaz’ grappling advantage…maybe giving Diaz a slight edge overall.  With that being said, 5Dimes has Zaromskis at +230, a 30% chance of winning.  Expect this fight to be like Diaz/Noons, but more brutal.  MMAMoneyLine recommends a moderate play on the underdog Zaromskis.

Melvin Manhoef vs. Robbie Lawler

Let me start of by saying this entire fight hinges on Lawler’s gameplan.  I’m far from the first guy that is saying that…it’s pretty much the consensus opinion across the board.  Robbie Lawler is a very tough guy with dynamite in his hands, but Melvin Manhoef’s striking power is otherworldly.  When you knock out Mark Hunt, they should give you a black belt in every striking discipline.

Robbie Lawler has said in some interviews that he plans on standing with Manhoef, while he’s stated in other interviews he plans on exploiting Melvin’s weaknesses.  Whether this is gamesmanship or not, we will see this weekend.  If Lawler stands with Manhoef, he will get knocked out.  If he can take Manhoef down, where Melvin has barely any skill, Lawler wins this fight handily.  This fight is as close to 50/50 as it gets…and you as a bettor have to decide whether Lawler is going to stick to an effective gameplan or rise to the challenge of a world class striker.

My pick: Melvin Manhoef via KO in the 1st

Betting play: Since every fight starts standing, I give Melvin the nod here.  However, there is value on both fighters.  Lawler’s best odds are +165 at 5Dimes, and Manhoef’s are -185 at SportBet and BetUS.  I’m personally not betting on this fight, but I can see how others would want to.  A Manhoef bet could turn out to be a very good anchor to cover your underdog plays, while a small Lawler bet could make you some money as well.

 

Herschel Walker vs. Greg Nagy

I know very little about Greg Nagy, and even less about Herschel Walker…the MMA fighter anyway.  Both guys come from competitive athletic backgrounds, with Nagy being a standout high school football and hockey player and Walker having a long and impressive stint in the National Football League.  Obviously, Walker has the more documented athletic prowess with his high profile NFL career, but Nagy has more MMA experience (albeit 2 fights).

Walker has been training with some of the best MMA has to offer, and by all accounts is taking it very seriously.  He also has a background in Taekwondo.  However, TKD hasn’t historically translated very well to MMA…as I’m sure we’ve all hear Joe Rogan say more than once.  One also has to question his durability at 47.

When these odds came out, I was stunned.  I fully expected them to be even or close to it.  To say Herschel Walker, with no MMA experience, is a -350 favorite against someone who has actually has two pro fights is completely ludicrous.  Now, Greg Nagy was brought in to lose…we all know that.  Assuming this fight isn’t fixed, you almost have to put a bet on Greg Nagy here…no matter his skill set.

My pick: Greg Nagy via submission in the second

Betting play: Please put a bet on Greg Nagy.  At 5Dimes, they’re giving him a 26% (+290) chance to win against a 47 year old with no MMA experience.

 

MMAMoneyLine Official Picks:

Zaromskis/TKO/2

Santos/TKO/1

Manhoef/KO/1

Lashley/TKO/1

Nagy/SUB/2

Hieron/UD

 

MMAMoneyLine Official Wagers (1 unit = 2% of bankroll):

Zaromskis – 1 u at +230

Nagy – .2 u at +290