Author: Pat

UFC Welterweight bout:  Dan Hardy vs. Chris Lytle

Odds:  ( even – Hardy /-130 Lytle )

Betting Pick:  Hardy

Bet on this fight at Bodog.com

In the main event of the evening, dynamic British striker Dan “The Outlaw” Hardy will look to stop his three-fight losing streak against long-time veteran and prolific grappler Chris “Lights Out” Lytle. Hardy may be in the midst of a three-fight skid, but he is still a dangerous striker with knockout power. What Hardy lacks is effective offensive grappling, something Lytle has a surplus of. Both of these guys are capable of testing the others’ weaknesses, so this should be a pretty competitive fight.

Chris “Lights Out” Lytle is a tough and grizzled veteran of the sport with a wealth of experience and a dangerous skill set. He isn’t the most powerful striker out there, but he has decent hands and a solid chin. Lytle’s best work clearly comes on the ground, where he is a prolific submission finisher. Sometimes, though, Lytle likes to throw his ground game to the side and just stand toe to toe with someone and bang. It’s a pretty terrible strategy because he doesn’t have much power and he is much better on the ground, and trying to stand and bang with Hardy is not going to work out well for him. If Lytle wants to win, he is going to have to fight defensively on the feet and use his boxing to set up takedowns. On the ground, Lytle could easily control position and work for submissions, but he has to fight smart to set that game plan up.

Dan Hardy is on the wrong side of an unprecedented three fight losing streak, but that doesn’t make him any less dangerous a fighter. Hardy’s best attribute is easily his striking, which is technically solid and very powerful. He has great hands and mixes kicks in well. He doesn’t have much in the way of offensive wrestling or submissions, but he proved against Georges St. Pierre that he has pretty solid takedown defense, very effective submission defense, and is good at working for escapes from off his back. Against Lytle he is obviously going to want to keep this fight standing, where he will enjoy a technical advantage and a huge edge in punching power. Lytle is tough, durable, and fairly effective on his feet, but Hardy is the more technical of the two and, unlike Lytle, has fight-ending knockout power.

This fight is going to be decided by Lytle’s gameplan. If Lytle fights smart and tries to use his striking to set up some takedowns where he can control position and score points, he should be able to do enough to earn the decision. I think it is much more likely, though, that Lytle will be content with keeping this fight standing, and it will come back to haunt him. Lytle is tough and has a very solid chin, so he should be able to hang in until the final bell, but I think he will oblige Hardy in making this a kickboxing match and get punched around for his troubles. Hardy by decision.

Prediction:  Dan “The Outlaw” Hardy via Decision.

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