Author: Pat

UFC Lightweight bout:  Jim Miller vs. Benson Henderson

Odds:  (-175 Miller /+145 Henderson )

Betting Pick:  Miller

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In the semi-main event, two prolific Lightweight grapplers with well-rounded skill sets will go at it as Jim Miller squares off against WEC veteran Benson Henderson. Henderson was one of WEC’s standouts at 155 pounds, and is coming off a quality win over Mark Bocek. Miller, for his part, is riding a seven fight win streak and his only two professional losses came to Frankie Edgar and Gray Maynard, the two guys duking it out for control of the division. Henderson has all the tools to succeed against anyone, but Miller is well-rounded, experienced, effective, and represents the biggest challenge Henderson has faced thusfar.

Benson “Smooth” Henderson is an extremely exciting, athletic, and effective young Lightweight. He isn’t the most powerful puncher in the world, but his striking is slick and fast, and he uses it very well to set up his takedowns, which are superb. Henderson is very quick on his feet, with great wrestling and a dominant ground game. His positional control, ground and pound, and submissions are all very dangerous, which is going to come in handy against a grappler of Miller’s caliber. Henderson has fought good competition, for sure, but Miller is easily the most versatile and experienced opponent he has had to deal with thusfar, so the biggest thing for him is to not make any huge mistakes that Miller can capitalize on and to depend on his superior strength, speed, and athleticism to help neutralize Miller’s outstanding technique.

Jim Miller has cemented himself as one of the top contenders in UFC’s Lightweight Division, but has thusfar fallen just short of being able to break through into the very top of the division. His only two losses are to Maynard and Edgar, clearly the UFC’s top two Lightweights, and a win here could go a very long way toward putting him in the title picture. Miller is an extremely solid competitor who fights smart and has no glaring holes in his game. His best work is clearly done on the ground, and he is a great wrestler with very good submissions, but he also has technical, accurate boxing to complement his grappling prowess. He isn’t quite as physically impressive as Henderson, but what he lacks in physicality he makes up for in stellar technique and top-level fight experience.

This is going to be a very competitive fight. Both Miller and Henderson are experienced and versatile young fighters, and both of them bring top-notch ground games to the table. Miller has slightly more experience against top-level competition, but Henderson has the edge in terms of physical speed and strength. Ultimately, though, I think Miller is the more complete and steady of the two, and that should be enough to earn him the decision win. Miller has slightly better striking, technically speaking, and a more diverse ground game. Miller by decision.

Prediction:  Jim Miller via Unanimous Decision.

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UFC Lightweight bout:  Donald Cerrone vs. Charles Oliveira

Odds:  (even – Cerrone /-130 Oliveira )

Betting Pick:  Cerrone

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In a featured Lightweight matchup, two extremely prolific grapplers will meet as Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone squares off against Charles “Do Bronx” Oliveira. Both of these guys have versatile skill sets highlighted by world-class ground games, so this should be a very competitive bout. Both of these guys can get the job done standing and on the ground, and both are capable of testing each other’s strengths, so this is going to be extremely close and could come down to which guy makes the first mistake.

Charles “Do Bronx” Oliveira is a prolific grappler with only one loss in his professional career. His wrestling is very solid, and his submission skills are world-class. To top it all off, Oliveira is actually a technically proficient and powerful striker. One question mark for Oliveira is his submission defense. He was submitted by Jim Miller, which is far from shameful, but Cerrone is equally capable of testing his submission defense and if Oliveira overextends looking for a submission of his own he might well pay the price.

Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone was one of WEC’s top Lightweights, and has transferred his success nicely into the UFC. Cerrone isn’t the most powerful striker, but he has solid technical boxing to complement his dominant wrestling and dangerous submissions from every position. What makes Cerrone so dangerous is his ability to mix up parts of his game very well and the fact that he can transition from submission attempt to submission attempt until he wears his opponents down and finally catches them.

This is going to be a very close and hard-fought bout. These guys are both world-class fighters and they have very similar skill sets. In the end, this is going to come down to who can score more points on the feet and who can secure the takedowns and control when and how this fight goes to the ground. I expect this fight to go the distance, but I think Cerrone is the slicker of the two and, most importantly, the superior wrestler. When this fight goes to the ground, Cerrone will be in the dominant position, which should allow him to play safe, fend Oliveira off, and score points while working for submissions. Cerrone by decision.

Prediction:  Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone via Decision.

To add  a little more excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bodog.com Odds.   Check out my review of Bodog here…

UFC Welterweight bout:  Duane Ludwig vs. Amir Sadollah

Odds:  (+250 Ludwig /-375 Sadollah )

Betting Pick:  Sadollah

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In a featured welterweight matchup, former Ultimate Fighter winner Amir Sadollah will face a tough challenge in the form of long-time veteran Duane “Bang” Ludwig. Sadollah is a very good grappler with constantly-improving Muay Thai, and is easily the more versatile of these two, but he is going to have to be careful because Ludwig’s striking is devastatingly fast, accurate, and powerful. If Sadollah tries to test his standup against Ludwig he is going to pay for it, so he is going to need a smart gameplan if he wants to come out of this one with a win.

Amir Sadollah secured his place in the UFC by submitting heavy favorite C.B. Dolloway twice on his season of The Ultimate Fighter, with identical armbars. Even more impressive is that he won his season having never fought as a professional before entering. Since his time on the show, Sadollah has continued to grow and become more well-rounded. He isn’t the kind of fighter who puts fear into his opponents in any one area, but his mix of submission prowess and constantly improving Muay Thai make him a very formidable opponent. His takedowns and wrestling could use some work for sure, but against Ludwig he will still enjoy sizable advantages in those areas.

Duane Ludwig is one of the most devastating Welterweight strikers in the sport. His offense is pretty much limited to punching, but he does it extremely well. His takedown defense and submission defense are both poor and he doesn’t have a particularly solid chin, but he has some of the fastest and most accurate punching in the division and a surplus of knockout power. He hasn’t had much success over any extended period of time because he is extremely one-dimensional, but he is a threat to finish any fight he is in at any second because he is such a great striker.

It would be foolish to write Ludwig off, because he is a vastly superior striker to Sadollah with one-punch knockout power, but his game just isn’t complete enough to make him a safe bet. Sadollah is a better wrestler and a much better grappler, and unless he lets Ludwig tee off on him he has all the tools to win this fight. I think he will control Ludwig with takedowns and ground work en route to a unanimous decision.

Prediction:  Amir Sadollah via Unanimous Decision.

To add  a little more excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bodog.com Odds.   Check out my review of Bodog here…