Author: Pat

UFC Light Heavyweight bout:  Rashad Evans vs. Tito Ortiz

Odds:  (-400 Evans /+300 Ortiz )

Betting Pick:  Evans

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In the main event of the evening, two skilled wrestlers and former Light Heavyweight champions will go at it as “The Huntington Beach Bad Boy” Tito Ortiz, fresh off a big win against Ryan Bader, steps up against world #3 Light Heavyweight “Sugar” Rashad Evans. Evans has been out of action for over a year, while Ortiz is only a few weeks removed from a big comeback win against Ryan Bader. This is a very interesting fight, because both guys have similar skill sets, Tito is coming off a very short layoff and is notoriously injury prone, and Rashad’s long absence from active competition could impact his performance greatly. The last time these two met, in 2007, they fought to a draw, but Rashad has been the much more successful of the two since then, so if Ortiz wants to continue his recent resurgence he is going to have his hands full.

“The Huntington Beach Bad Boy” Tito Ortiz, a former Light Heavyweight champ and sure-fire future Hall of Famer, has had a rough five years. Since back to back wins over his arch-rival Ken Shamrock in 2006, Ortiz has won only one fight, a submission victory over Ryan Bader in his last outing. Ortiz’s losing streak is partly because he has struggled with debilitating back injuries, and partly because his game has evolved. He has always been a very good wrestler with underrated submissions and dominant ground and pound, but his standup is extremely rudimentary and his back problems forced him to telegraph his takedowns since he couldn’t change levels fast enough. His boxing is fairly technically sound, but he’s not particularly fast and he doesn’t have a lot of power, so no one is scared to stand and trade with him, and everyone knows that he is just going to look for takedowns and try to work a top control gameplan. Against Rashad, who is probably a more effective wrestler, he is really going to need to provide some different looks in order to have any success.

“Sugar” Rashad Evans, the former Light Heavyweight champ, is not always one of the most exciting fighters in the world to watch, but he is definitely one of the most effective in the division. He has suffered only one loss as a professional, against Lyoto Machida, and tends to dominate his opponents with powerful striking and very solid wrestling. His standup is not overly technical, but he does have one-punch knockout power. His best weapon, though, by far, is his wrestling. He has great shoot takedowns, great top control, and is extremely effective at controlling his opponents in the clinch and using that position to set up trip takedowns. Rashad is not always the most prolific finisher, but he is very good at staying out of trouble and using his wrestling both offensively and defensively to score points and control fights. The big question is how much his long layoff and the injuries he suffered in training are going to impact his performance. Ortiz is past his prime, but if Rashad isn’t at top form Tito still has the tools and the experience to make him pay, so Rashad is going to need a solid performance if he wants to avoid an upset.

I just don’t think Tito has much of a chance here. He looked good against Ryan Bader in his last fight, but he couldn’t do anything against Rashad the first time they fought and Rashad has improved by leaps and bounds since then while Tito is, at best, the same fighter he was in 2007. Rashad has more dangerous punching power, more speed, and better wrestling. Tito is a tough guy and will be able to hang in this fight, but I think Rashad should easily control the action for a unanimous decision win.

Prediction:  “Suga” Rashad Evans via Unanimous Decision.

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UFC Middleweight bout:  Vitor Belfort  vs. Yoshihiro Akiyama

Odds:  (-370 Belfort /+280 Akiyama )

Betting Pick:  Belfort

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In the semi-main event, heavy-handed Brazilian Vitor Belfort will look to rebound from a devastating loss to Middleweight champion Anderson Silva against skilled Japanese judoka Yoshihiro Akiyama, who is on a two fight skid of his own. Akiyama is a very well-rounded fighter with extremely effective grappling, but Belfort has dynamite in both hands and a very underrated ground game of his own. There is no question that Belfort is the more explosive of the two, but Akiyama has a very well-rounded skillset that allows him to be effective in more ranges than Belfort, so this has the makings of a very competitive bout.

Yoshihiro Akiyama, a longtime veteran of K-1 and DREAM, is a very versatile fighter with a strong grappling base. His shoot takedowns are pretty decent, but his throws from the clinch are excellent and he has a solid submission attack, especially from top position. His boxing is fairly solid and technical, but he lacks fight-ending power. His submission defense is also somewhat porous, as he showed in his fight against Chris Leben, where he succumbed to a triangle choke from a guy who is not particularly renowned for his ability to work off his back. While he lacks one punch power, he does have the ability to capitalize on openings and pile on punishment. Akiyama’s biggest strength is his ability to compete anywhere a fight goes, but his biggest weakness is that there is no one area where he completely takes a fight over.

Vitor Belfort was a standout in the UFC’s early days, and has been enjoying a serious career resurgence recently. Aside from Anderson Silva, Belfort may well be the most devastating striker in the Middleweight division. He lacks Silva’s flair for unorthodox strikes, but he is a disturbingly heavy-handed puncher and every single punch he throws has fight-ending potential. You wouldn’t know it to look at his record, but he is also a fairly skilled grappler with solid wrestling and submissions. Generally, though, he tends to forego using his grappling offensively, instead using it to keep fights standing where he can usually dominate his opponents.

This is a rough matchup for Akiyama. Akiyama’s takedowns are good, but not overpowering, and on the feet he is going to be brutally outmatched by Belfort. I just don’t think Akiyama has the ability to consistently force Belfort to the ground and hold him there, and on the feet he just isn’t going to last long. Belfort by T/KO.

Prediction:  Vitor Belfort via second round T/KO.

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UFC Welterweight bout:  Dennis Hallman vs. Brian Ebersole

Odds:  (-120 Hallman /-110 Ebersole )

Betting Pick:  Hallman

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In the third bout of the evening, prolific grappler and long-time veteran Dennis “Superman” Hallman will square off against another savvy veteran with a decade of experience in Brian “Bad Boy” Ebersole. This is an interesting matchup, because Ebersole is a very well-rounded fighter with a versatile skill set, whereas Hallman relies very heavily on his grappling. That would seem to give the edge to Ebersole, but “Bad Boy” has notoriously poor submission defense, and against a guy as effective at finishing fights with submissions as Hallman, that could easily spell disaster. Will Ebersole’s superior versatility allow him to exploit Hallman’s more limited game, or will Hallman’s submission prowess be too much for Ebersole’s porous defense?

Brian “Bad Boy” Ebersole is a long time veteran of smaller shows, having fought as a professional for over a decade before making his UFC debut. His debut was a successful one, as he scored an upset decision win over another skilled veteran in Chris Lytle. Ebersole is a very well-rounded and effective fighter who can get the job done both standing and on the ground. His striking is technical and powerful, he is a solid wrestler with good takedowns and defense, and he has a pretty good submission attack to go along with it. The only real hole in Ebersole’s game is his submission defense, which is notoriously porous. Against Hallman he might want to concentrate on working his striking, where he will probably enjoy a notable advantage, because with his poor submission defense and Hallman’s incredible grappling prowess, forcing this fight to the ground might be suicide.

Dennis “Superman” Hallman has been fighting as a professional for over 15 years, and is one of the most effective submission finishers in the Welterweight division. He isn’t the most versatile guy in the world, and despite all his experience his striking is still fairly rudimentary, but his ability to force fights to the ground and secure submission holds is second to none. He is probably not going to have much for Ebersole on the feet, and it is entirely possible he will be outwrestled as well, but he has one significant advantage in that Ebersole’s submission defense is not good at all and Hallman is as poised to exploit that hole in his game as anyone in the world.

Ebersole is definitely the more versatile of the two, but I think the style matchup here favors Hallman. It is a simple case of a guy with very poor submission defense being matched up against one of the most effective submission fighters in the world. Eventually this fight will find it’s way to the ground, Ebersole will make a mistake, and Hallman will capitalize. Hallman by submission.

Prediction:  Dennis “Super Man” Hallman via second round rear naked choke.  

To add  a little more excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bodog.com Odds.   Check out my review of Bodog here…