Author: Pat

UFC Light Heavyweight bout:  Tito Ortiz vs. Ryan Bader

Odds:  (-575 Ortiz /+375 Bader )

Betting Pick:  Bader

Bet on this fight at Bodog.com

In the third bout of the evening, future Hall of Famer “The Huntington Beach Bad Boy” Tito Ortiz will square off against heavy-handed wrestler Ryan “Darth” Bader. Tito helped lay the groundwork for dominant wrestlers in the UFC with his ground and pound style and effective grappling, but injuries have hampered him greatly over the last five or six years. Bader, for his part, is in full health and right in the middle of his athletic prime, not to mention that he has the kind of wrestling that is going to make it very difficult for Tito to impose his game plan. This is going to be a stern test for Ortiz in every way.

Ryan “Darth” Bader is an extremely tough and heavy-handed wrestler who is coming off the first loss of his professional career, a drubbing at the hands of Light Heavyweight champion Jon “Bones” Jones. Despite his inability to deal with Jones, Bader’s mixture of powerful clinch work, dynamic takedowns, ground and pound, and powerful boxing make him an extremely formidable opponent for anyone in the division. Bader is far more effective in the striking than most guys with wrestling of his caliber, and he has both great punching power and very solid boxing technique. His submission game isn’t as good as the rest of his offense, but he is hardly lost on the ground, and he is very effective at maintaining top position and dealing damage with strikes from on top of his opponents.

“The Huntington Beach Bad Boy” Tito Ortiz is a true UFC legend. For years, his unique blend of wrestling, ground and pound, and submission prowess ruled the Light Heavyweight division. In recent years, though, a combination of the sport evolving and career-hampering injuries have made Tito’s greatness something of an afterthought. Despite repeated claims that his back is 100% again, his spinal injuries have severely limited his ability to change levels for takedowns, which takes away a huge part of his game. His striking has never really moved past the rudimentary phase, and despite his submission prowess he is not very effective off his back, so his trouble securing takedowns has almost made him a non-factor at this point.

Tito is done, and has been for years, although he seems to be the last person to realize it. Bader is, at this point, a substantially better wrestler and vastly more effective on the feet. Tito will have to telegraph takedown attempts, which Bader will stuff with ease. On the feet Ortiz is going to get boxed around badly, and I doubt he will be able to stand up with Bader for three full rounds. Bader by T/KO.

Prediction:  Ryan “Darth” Bader via third round T/KO.

• Take Bader in your parlay Bet.

To add  a little more excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bodog.com Odds.   Check out my review of Bodog here…

UFC  Welterweight bout:  Carlos Condit vs. Dong Hyun Kim

Odds:  (-120 Condit /-110 Hyun Kim )

Betting Pick:  Condit

Bet on this fight at Bodog.com

In the second bout of the evening, undefeated Korean standoung Dong Hyn “Stun Gun” Kim faces his toughest challenge yet in the form of “The Natural Born Killer” Carlos Condit. Kim is a very effective grappler with great takedowns from inside the clinch who is great at shutting down his opponents’ offense, but Condit is one of the most dangerous and versatile finishers in the Welterweight division, so Kim is going to need the best performance of his career if he wants to keep his unblemished record intact.

Dong Hyun Kim is an extremely effective grappler with solid boxing who has thusfar never lost a fight as a professional. He has decent traditional wrestling, but where he really shines is with his judo-style throws from the clinch. He uses the clinch very effectively, not only to set up takedowns but to neutralize his opponents in the striking game. When he fought in Japan, he was something of a knockout artist, but he has only managed to finish one fight thusfar in his UFC career. He relies on grappling and positional control to shut his opponents down and keep them from mounting an offense. Against Condit, he is going to have his hands full, because Condit is a very accomplished ground fighter who can finish fights anywhere they go, so Kim is going to need to fight mistake-free if he wants to employ his usual style of dominating position to score points.

“The Natural Born Killer” Carlos Condit, who fights out of Greg Jackson’s camp in Albuquerque, New Mexico, is one of the Welterweight division’s most prolific finishers. He has always been an extremely effective submission artist, but he has also developed into a dangerous knockout puncher as well. His boxing is quick, accurate, technical, and powerful. In addition, he sets up his submission attack with effective wrestling and, like of all Greg Jackson’s fighters, always comes into his bouts with a great game plan. There are few fighters in the division with skill sets as versatile as Condit’s, and even fewer who have his ability to finish fights both standing and on the ground.

This has all the makings of an extremely competitive bout. Both of these guys have very well-rounded skill sets and a lot of experience against good competition. In the end, though, I think that Condit is the more dangerous of the two. Kim has the skills to get him to the ground occasionally, but Condit is extremely slick even off his back, and Condit is the more powerful and effective striker. I think this should be a close, competitive bout, but Condit should be able to do enough to earn the unanimous decision in the end.

Prediction:  Carlos “The Natural Born Killer” Condit via Unanimous Decision.

• Bet on Condit here @-125 and add him to a parlay bet.

To add  a little more excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bodog.com Odds.   Check out my review of Bodog here…

UFC Lightweight bout:  Dennis Siver vs. Matt Wiman

Odds:  (-135 Siver /+105 Wiman )

Betting Pick:  Siver

Bet on this fight at Bodog.com

The opening bout of the evening will feature two extremely skilled Lightweights going at it as “Handsome” Matt Wiman takes on surging German standout Dennis Siver. Both of these guys are on three fight win streaks and on the cusp of entering the top level of the 155 pound division, so a win here would be huge for both men. With both having a lot to fight for and both having versatile skill sets, this should be a very exciting and competitive bout.

“Handsome” Matt Wiman, a training partner of Strikeforce Lightweight champion Gilbert Melendez, is a very well-rounded young fighter with solid wrestling, decent but powerful boxing, and an effective submission game. Sporting an impressive 7-3 record inside the Octagon, Wiman has carved out a niche for himself in the UFC’s most talent-packed division. He isn’t one of the more dominant fighters in the division, but there are also no really huge holes in his game, which allows him to at least be competitive with anyone.

Dennis Siver is another promising Lightweight with a versatile skill set. His submissions are extremely effective, but he seems to prefer standup fights, and has developed into quite a dynamic and powerful striker. He has great punching and kicks and can finish fights with both. He is also a solid wrestler, both offensively and defensively.

This is going to be a close matchup, but I think Siver is just a little more explosive and a little more versatile. On the feet he is definitely the more dangerous of the two, and his superior wrestling should allow him to dictate the pace of the fight. Wiman is tough and difficult to finish, but I think Siver should control the action and earn himself a unanimous decision win.

Prediction:  Dennis Siver via Unanimous Decision.

To add  a little more excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bodog.com Odds.   Check out my review of Bodog here…