Author: Pat

UFC Welterweight bout:  Nate Marquardt vs. Rick Story

Odds:  ( Marquardt / Story )

Betting Pick:  Marquardt

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In the main event of the evening, surging young wrestler Rick “Horror” Story will face the toughest challenge of his career as he takes on long-time veteran Nate “The Great” Marquardt. Marquardt is extremely dangerous and well-rounded, but bouts against Yushin Okami and Chael Sonnen showed that he can be overwhelmed by guys who are capable of outwrestling him, and Story’s wrestling is extremely effective. Marquardt is a wily veteran, though, so he will give Story some looks he has never seen before, so this should be a very competitive fight.

Rick “Horror” Story is coming off the biggest win of his career, a unanimous decision drubbing of Thiago “Pitbull” Alves. Despite Alves’ striking prowess, Story completely neutralized him with wrestling and clinch work and landed quite a few shots of his own for good measure. Story is a very good wrestler with heavy hands, a bruising top game, solid takedowns, and a great ability to neutralize opponents in the clinch. He is not necessarily a great finisher, but like Jon Fitch he puts his boxing and wrestling together well and is great at neutralizing his opponents’ offense and taking fights over.

Nate Marquardt is one of the best Middleweights in the world, but he always seems to fall short when it matters the most. An extremely well-rounded fighter, Marquardt can punish guys with his hands, has good takedowns, and can work very effectively from top position. The only major hole in his game is that he has trouble stopping dominant wrestlers and is not very effective off his back. He should enjoy a striking advantage against Story in both power and technique, but it is crucial that he uses his wrestling defensively to avoid getting steamrolled by takedowns and worked over on the ground.

This is a tough fight to call. Marquardt is clearly the more versatile of the two and a bigger threat to finish, but Story’s strengths do play right into Marquardt’s weaknesses. The only fighters who have given Marquardt trouble are top-notch wrestlers who can force him to work off his back, but also have the striking prowess to not get overwhelmed on the feet. Unfortunately, although Story is a great wrestler with solid boxing, I don’t think his takedowns are dominant enough for him to force Marquardt down consistently or that his boxing is good enough to keep Marquardt from picking him apart. This won’t be a one-sided fight, but I think Marquardt should be able to neutralize Story’s wrestling and land enough punches on the feet to earn the decision nod.

Prediction:  Nate “The Great” Marquardt via Decision.

To add  a little more excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bodog.com Odds.   Check out my review of Bodog here…

UFC Welterweight bout:  Nate Marquardt vs. Rick Story

Odds:  ( Marquardt / Story )

Betting Pick:  Marquardt

Bet on this fight at Bodog.com

In the main event of the evening, surging young wrestler Rick “Horror” Story will face the toughest challenge of his career as he takes on long-time veteran Nate “The Great” Marquardt. Marquardt is extremely dangerous and well-rounded, but bouts against Yushin Okami and Chael Sonnen showed that he can be overwhelmed by guys who are capable of outwrestling him, and Story’s wrestling is extremely effective. Marquardt is a wily veteran, though, so he will give Story some looks he has never seen before, so this should be a very competitive fight.

Rick “Horror” Story is coming off the biggest win of his career, a unanimous decision drubbing of Thiago “Pitbull” Alves. Despite Alves’ striking prowess, Story completely neutralized him with wrestling and clinch work and landed quite a few shots of his own for good measure. Story is a very good wrestler with heavy hands, a bruising top game, solid takedowns, and a great ability to neutralize opponents in the clinch. He is not necessarily a great finisher, but like Jon Fitch he puts his boxing and wrestling together well and is great at neutralizing his opponents’ offense and taking fights over.

Nate Marquardt is one of the best Middleweights in the world, but he always seems to fall short when it matters the most. An extremely well-rounded fighter, Marquardt can punish guys with his hands, has good takedowns, and can work very effectively from top position. The only major hole in his game is that he has trouble stopping dominant wrestlers and is not very effective off his back. He should enjoy a striking advantage against Story in both power and technique, but it is crucial that he uses his wrestling defensively to avoid getting steamrolled by takedowns and worked over on the ground.

This is a tough fight to call. Marquardt is clearly the more versatile of the two and a bigger threat to finish, but Story’s strengths do play right into Marquardt’s weaknesses. The only fighters who have given Marquardt trouble are top-notch wrestlers who can force him to work off his back, but also have the striking prowess to not get overwhelmed on the feet. Unfortunately, although Story is a great wrestler with solid boxing, I don’t think his takedowns are dominant enough for him to force Marquardt down consistently or that his boxing is good enough to keep Marquardt from picking him apart. This won’t be a one-sided fight, but I think Marquardt should be able to neutralize Story’s wrestling and land enough punches on the feet to earn the decision nod.

Prediction:  Nate “The Great” Marquardt via Decision.

To add  a little more excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bodog.com Odds.   Check out my review of Bodog here…

UFC Welterweight bout:  Nate Marquardt vs. Rick Story

Odds:  ( Marquardt / Story )

Betting Pick:  Marquardt

Bet on this fight at Bodog.com

In the main event of the evening, surging young wrestler Rick “Horror” Story will face the toughest challenge of his career as he takes on long-time veteran Nate “The Great” Marquardt. Marquardt is extremely dangerous and well-rounded, but bouts against Yushin Okami and Chael Sonnen showed that he can be overwhelmed by guys who are capable of outwrestling him, and Story’s wrestling is extremely effective. Marquardt is a wily veteran, though, so he will give Story some looks he has never seen before, so this should be a very competitive fight.

Rick “Horror” Story is coming off the biggest win of his career, a unanimous decision drubbing of Thiago “Pitbull” Alves. Despite Alves’ striking prowess, Story completely neutralized him with wrestling and clinch work and landed quite a few shots of his own for good measure. Story is a very good wrestler with heavy hands, a bruising top game, solid takedowns, and a great ability to neutralize opponents in the clinch. He is not necessarily a great finisher, but like Jon Fitch he puts his boxing and wrestling together well and is great at neutralizing his opponents’ offense and taking fights over.

Nate Marquardt is one of the best Middleweights in the world, but he always seems to fall short when it matters the most. An extremely well-rounded fighter, Marquardt can punish guys with his hands, has good takedowns, and can work very effectively from top position. The only major hole in his game is that he has trouble stopping dominant wrestlers and is not very effective off his back. He should enjoy a striking advantage against Story in both power and technique, but it is crucial that he uses his wrestling defensively to avoid getting steamrolled by takedowns and worked over on the ground.

This is a tough fight to call. Marquardt is clearly the more versatile of the two and a bigger threat to finish, but Story’s strengths do play right into Marquardt’s weaknesses. The only fighters who have given Marquardt trouble are top-notch wrestlers who can force him to work off his back, but also have the striking prowess to not get overwhelmed on the feet. Unfortunately, although Story is a great wrestler with solid boxing, I don’t think his takedowns are dominant enough for him to force Marquardt down consistently or that his boxing is good enough to keep Marquardt from picking him apart. This won’t be a one-sided fight, but I think Marquardt should be able to neutralize Story’s wrestling and land enough punches on the feet to earn the decision nod.

Prediction:  Nate “The Great” Marquardt via Decision.

To add  a little more excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bodog.com Odds.   Check out my review of Bodog here…

UFC Heavyweight bout:  Patrick Barry vs. Cheick Kongo

Odds:  (-225 Kongo /+185 Barry )

Betting Pick:  Kongo

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In a Heavyweight bout that is sure to deliver some fireworks, slugger Pat Barry will square off against French kickboxer Cheick Kongo. Both of these guys have some destructive punching power and a willingness to trade shots, but Barry is the more punishing of the two while Kongo has a much more complete game. If Kongo lets Barry draw him into a brawl, he could be making a huge mistake here, as he is going to need his superior technique to come out ahead.

Patrick Barry is an extremely dangerous brawler with a ton of power in his hands and some of the most punishing leg kicks in the sport. His technique is pretty good, but he is dangerous because he has so much power that he can put his opponents to sleep with punches or chop their base out from under them with hugely powerful leg kicks. His offense is pretty one-dimensional and he has absolutely no defense on the ground, but he is capable of knocking out anyone who he hits with a solid power punch.

Cheick Kongo is a very technical kickboxer who also has solid punching power. While he lacks some of Barry’s row knockout potential, he has faster hands and better technique. He is capable of being knocked out, though, and if he eats a power shot from Barry he is going to find himself in a world of trouble. The big advantage Kongo brings into this fight is that his wrestling is actually very underrated and he has a very effective top control game with destructive ground and pound.

I think this fight favors Kongo. On the feet, I would probably give a slight edge to Barry, but Kongo’s superior technique and ability to utilize his jab should help keep Barry at bay. If Kongo is smart, though, this fight won’t stay standing very long, and he will use his vastly superior wrestling to take Barry down and drop punches on him from top position. Barry is tough and Kongo has no real submission game, so this one should go the distance, but I expect Kongo to ground and pound his way to a unanimous decision victory.

Prediction:  Cheick Kongo via Unanimous Decision.

To add  a little more excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bodog.com Odds.   Check out my review of Bodog here…

UFC Welterweight bout:  Matt Brown vs. John Howard

Odds:  (+210 Brown /-270 Howard )

Betting Pick:  Howard

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In the second bout of the evening, Welterweights Matt Brown and John Howard will meet in a very important bout for their UFC careers. With Brown currently riding a 3 fight losing streak and Howard on a 2-fight skid of his own, these guys are probably fighting for their roster spots in this one. Brown is not a particularly skilled fighter in any way, but he is extremely tough and has a lot of heart, so you’d better believe he will come to fight here.

Matt Brown, who made his way to UFC through the seventh season of The Ultimate Fighter, is one of the toughest and most rugged fighters in the sport. A decent striker with a solid submission attack, Brown is consistently held back by his lack of physicality and his atrocious submission defense. He has a tendency to get ragdolled inside the Octagon and submitted as soon as fights go to the ground. Against Howard, who has both wrestling and submissions, he is going to have his hands full.

John Howard is a very tough and well-rounded fighter with heavy hands, good wrestling, and effective submissions. He was riding a seven fight win streak before dropping his last two bouts, which has sort of put his back against the wall here. Luckily, this is a good matchup for him, since he will have the edge over Brown in pretty much every area, especially physical strength and wrestling ability. It is entirely possible he will beat Brown handily on the feet, but with his wrestling, submission skills, and physical superiority, he is going to be in great position to win.

I don’t think Brown has any answer for Howard or any other competent Welterweight. His toughness and willingness to fight ensure that his fights are always entertaining, but he really doesn’t bring much to the table and his game has too many glaring holes for him to be competitive against legitimate opponents. I expect Howard to pretty much overwhelm him physically, toss him around, and eventually choke him out. Howard by submission.

Prediction:  John “Doomsday” Howard via second round rear naked choke.

To add  a little more excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bodog.com Odds.   Check out my review of Bodog here…

UFC Featherweight bout:  Tyson Griffin vs. Manny Gamburyan

Odds:  (+190 Gamburyan /-250 Griffin )

Betting Pick:  Gamburyan

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In the third bout of the evening, Tyson Griffin will look to reverse a recent 3-fight losing streak by dropping down to 145 pounds, but Manny Gamburyan, who also dropped to 145 after poor results at Lightweight, is not going to make his Featherweight debut easy for him. Griffin, despite his losing streak, is a very solid wrestler with good hands, but Gamburyan has developed into a very complete fighter at his more natural weight, so this one should be very competitive.

Tyson Griffin’s UFC career got off to a very good start, but in recent matches his offense has seemed lacking and he has been unable to use his wrestling to impose his will on his opponents. A drop to 145 should do a lot to make his wrestling more effective, since he will no longer be giving up a size advantage to most of his opponents. His boxing is good but not super powerful, and he relies heavily on being able to take his opponents down and work from top position, which he is very good at.

Manny Gamburyan also suffered some poor results in UFC’s stacked Lightweight division, but dropping to Featherweight totally revitalized his career. Gamburyan is a great grappler, with unconvential submissions from every position, good judo throws from the clinch, solid wrestling, and good boxing with powerful punching. What makes him so effective is that he is very unorthodox and gets the job done in ways guys aren’t used to dealing with.

This is going to be a tough Featherweight debut for Griffin, in my opinion. On the feet, Manny is the more powerful of the two and probably has better technique at well. Griffin is the better pure wrestler, but Manny’s ability to work from the clinch and his more unorthodox judo style is going to throw Griffin off a bit. Add to that the fact that Manny is great at submissions, sweeps, and escapes from every position on the ground and I think Griffin, who isn’t known for finishing fights anyway, is going to let Manny stick around too long, which might prove a big problem. I think Manny will frustrate Griffin by neutralizing a lot of his wrestling and out-box him on the feet en route to a unanimous decision.

Prediction:  Manny Gamburyan via Unanimous Decision.  

To add  a little more excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bodog.com Odds.   Check out my review of Bodog here…