By Sam Stilson
Once in a while, Joe Silva likes to set up a card with an easy narrative. ‘Name’ fighters are given tough, but not too challenging opponents. We all pretend it’s a compelling matchup even though everyone knows who’s going to win. The fight happens, the good guy prevails, and it’s on to the next one. Such is the case with UFC 185.
The problem with this kind of card is that the bookies know who’s going to win too. This makes earning a buck off of watching people fight a bit of a challenge. Unless of course you like lengthy parlays or winning quarters off of 5-1 favourites. Still, this is MMA after all and crazier things have happened than a longshot winning a fight. Take for instance, the fact that Clay Guida has beaten both men vying for the lightweight title. Yes, this Clay Guida.
So with that in mind, let’s take a more in depth look at tomorrow’s UFC 185 card and see where we can earn some money to contribute towards CagePotato’s Patreon*.
*By “CagePotato’s Patreon” I of course mean blackjack and hookers.
The Good Bet
Carla Esparza over Joanna Jedrzejczyk at -165
Like a smaller, stronger Rodney Dangerfield with penciled-on eyebrows, Carla Esparza just can’t get any respect. She’s been the 115 lb. champ for two years (between TUF 20 and other promotions) and has beaten a good chunk of her division already. We all thought Rose Namajunas was going to wreck her with her creative striking and it wasn’t even close. Wrestlers who can’t strike, beat strikers who can’t wrestle. At these odds you have to take the champ.
The Live Dogs
Roy Nelson over Alistair Overeem at +155
If this was a kickboxing match, Roy wouldn’t have a chance in hell. But it’s not, it’s MMA, and sometimes all you need is a big overhand right. It worked for Ben Rothwell and Bigfoot Silva against the Reem and I don’t think his chin has gotten any stronger. Fatty trumps Juicehead for a decent payout.
The Toss-Up
Matt Brown (+300) vs. Johny Hendricks (-400)
You might be asking, if this fight is so close, how come “The Immortal” isn’t considered a great underdog bet? He pays out 3 to 1! Well, let me direct you to this short clip and then tell me if you feel the same way. There’s more if you’re not convinced.
Johny absolutely deserves to be the favourite in this match-up, but Matt Brown is still being waaaay undervalued. Basically it comes down to game-plan. If Hendricks grinds out a wrestlefest, he’ll win, but if he strikes with Brown like he did with Lawler, this something of a coin-flip. “The Immortal” has a more diverse striking arsenal than Hendricks and also happens to be the toughest sum’bitch on the planet. Whoever emerges victorious deserves the title shot and either man deserves a bet.
All odds provided by Bodog