Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Light Heavyweight finishers Jon Jones and Thiago Santos will clash TONIGHT (July 6, 2019) at UFC 239 from inside T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.
What’s there to say about Jon Jones that hasn’t been said already? The Light Heavyweight kingpin is an all-time great with a host of personal problems. However, he’s also proving that a quick string of utterly dominant performances over top competition is the best way to make fans forget about all the extra nonsense. As for Santos, the Brazilian has been an electric action fighter since day one, but the last few years have seen him turn a corner. He’s no longer simply a wild brawler with heavy kicks. While that occasionally reckless aggression remains, Santos is smarter about when he takes such chances, and he builds towards the finish in a more measured fashion rather than look solely for the single strike finish.
Let’s take a closer look at the keys to victory for each man:
Jon Jones
Record: 23-1 (1)
Key Wins: Daniel Cormier (UFC 182), Alexander Gustafsson (UFC 232, UFC 165), Lyoto Machida (UFC 140), Rashad Evans (UFC 145)
Key Losses: None
Keys to Victory: Jones is one of the greatest fighters to ever step into the cage for a reason. He’s a technician in every area of the game, with each facet of his offense purposefully managed to make the most of his usual range advantage.
The match up with Santos is interesting because it’s possible that Jones cannot dominate like usual from the kickboxing range. Theoretically, Santos can compete with him there, potentially even threaten and hurt him. Jones may still prove that better distance fighter, but he also doesn’t have to.
Jones has plenty of other areas to win this fight.
The clinch would likely be the easiest option. Santos is tough to take down and shows explosive hips when shot at in traditional fashion, but he tends to rest in the clinch. Jones, meanwhile, savages opponents from that range. It’s very likely he could control and beat up the Brazilian from close distance until the takedown becomes available.
Thiago Santos
Record: 21-6
Key Wins: Jan Blachowicz (UFC Fight Night 145), Jimi Manuwa (UFC 231), Anthony Smith (UFC Fight Night 125), Jack Hermansson (UFC Fight Night 119), Eryk Anders (UFC Fight Night 137)
Key Losses: Gegard Mousasi (UFC 200), David Branch (UFC Fight Night 128), Uriah Hall (UFC 175)
Keys to Victory: At 185 pounds, Santos simply melted opponents with single kicks. Against larger opponents at Light Heavyweight, the Brazilian’s kicks still have a devastating effect, and he’s found better success with his hands as well.
To reiterate much of what’s in the above video: confidence is key. Jones wins easily because after a round or two, most of his opponents simply stop trying to win. After a minute or two, Jones has successfully taken away their best weapons, and it’s downhill from there.
Santos has a weapon that can threaten Jones (kicks), and he MUST not abandon it! I don’t care if Jones counters his first three attempts to kick the body or calf — throw it again! Santos cannot allow this fight to slow down into the type of technical contest Jones covets, he must blast power kicks and punches for as long as he’s physically able.
Jones is a human being. If a shin slams into his calf, liver, or even forearms enough times, the champion will be affected and lose some of his potency. Santos must commit to attacking these targets early with his full power and retain his faith that it will eventually pay off.
Bottom Line: It’s another challenger for Jones’ strap.
Jones recently announced his goal of being a 20-time world champion, and he’s already more than halfway there. Given his pace in the last seven months, it doesn’t seem like an empty goal either. For Jones, this is largely “just another title defense” — not one he could afford to lose by any means, but also not a particularly large event for his career (unless he were to lose).
Alternatively, this is the fight for Thiago Santos. The Brazilian has done a wonderful job of improving his strengths and shoring up his weakness over the years, allowing him to go from a talented and fun fighter to genuine contender. At 35 years old, the window is likely closing for Santos. If he’s to make history and earn a golden strap in the process, tonight is the night.
At UFC 239, Jon Jones and Thiago Santos will meet in the main event. Which man will leave the cage as champion?