UFC 301 Odds, Props, Parlays And Picks

UFC 301 goes live this weekend (Sat., May 4, 2024) in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Checkout all the odds right here …

UFC 301 takes the world’s premier mixed martial arts (MMA) promotion back to Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, this weekend (Sat., May 4, 2024) with a fight card boasting Brazilian talent, both young and old. The pay-per-view (PPV) main event features Flyweight champion, Alexandre Pantoja, defending his crown for the very first time. He meets unlikely challenger, Steve Erceg, who is currently ranked No. 10 in the division with just three Octagon appearances under his belt.

The co-main event has former Featherweight kingpin, Jose Aldo, sensationally returning to action to face tough Top 15-ranked Bantamweight contender, Jonathan Martinez. UFC 301’s PPV main card (see it here) also features the always-fun Michel Pereira meeting Ihor Potieria and the sometimes-fun Paul Craig facing the never-fun Caio Borralho.

UFC 301’s “Prelims” undercard bouts are built to provide the Rio crowd non-stop opportunities to sing, “Uh vai morrer.” As always the card has plenty of opportunities for the gambling crowd and we’re going to break those down below …

UFC 301 PPV Main Card Money Line Odds

Alexandre Pantoja (-185) vs. Steve Erceg (+154)

The champion is the favorite in UFC 301’s main event, though not by much. Indeed, oddsmakers have challenger, Erceg, as a slight underdog, seemingly convinced that he can give the Brazilian a tough test in enemy territory. The 27-year-old Kiwi has been given a lot of respect here, even though his best win is a knockout over Matt Schnell (watch highlights). Pantoja, on the other hand, is coming off epic wins over Brandon Royval and Brandon Moreno (he also once KO’d Schnell).

Jonathan Martinez (-162) vs. Jose Aldo (+136)

Aldo is a slight underdog on his return to UFC. The 37-year-old former Featherweight champ last fought in the cage in 2022, losing a unanimous decision to Merab Dvalishvili. Aldo announced his retirement after that. Since then, he’s given boxing a go. Last year, he fought Jeremy Stephens to a majority draw and beat Esteban Gabriel Espindola via unanimous decision. During the time Aldo was away, Martinez won three fights inside the Octagon, finishing Cub Swanson and Adrian Yanez with leg kicks and decision-ing Said Nurmagomedov. Given his activity, and the fact he is seven years younger than Aldo, I expected to see him given shorter odds than he’s currently getting.

Anthony Smith (+390) vs. Vitor Petrino (-520)

Smith makes the long trip to Brazil to face Petrino and finds himself as one of the biggest underdogs on the card. The 35-year-old former Light Heavyweight title challenger hasn’t beaten anyone not named Ryan Spann since late 2021. His two wins over Spann are surrounded by losses to Magomed Ankalaev, Johnny Walker and Khalil Rountree Jr. The Ankalaev and Rountree losses came via technical knockout. Petrino is undefeated (11-0) and is almost 10 years younger than Smith. He has finished half of his six fights inside the Octagon. This could make for a rough night for “Lionheart.”

Michel Pereira (-535) vs. Ihor Potieria (+400)

That long-legged high-kicking back-flipping man Michel Pereira is one of the biggest favorites on the card at UFC 301. And there’s no mystery as to why. Since finding a nice balance between being effective and being bats**t, he’s managed to build a seven-fight win streak. Poteria has looked far less impressive in his last six bouts. During that run he beat Robert Bryczek (despite missing weight) and the remains of Shogun Rua, but lost the other three bouts all via technical knockout. Certainly feels like he’s been brought down to Brazil as a live body for Pereira to wheel kick.

Paul Craig (+410) vs. Caio Borralho (-550)

According to Vegas, this is the biggest mismatch on the card. And I can certainly see the reason(s). Borralho comes into this with a 17-1 1 NC record and a reputation for making fights as boring as possible as he plays wet blanket over foes who, so far, have been unable to figure out how to get out from under him. Craig has transformed himself from a bit of a novelty act to a legitimate Octagon veteran who has fought a “Who’s Who” at Middleweight. He’s had mixed success against the division with his wins coming from his rangy and creative MMA grappling game. Given Borralho’s past performances (and BJJ bona fides), the oddsmakers clearly believe that Craig will be unable to get anywhere near his preferred path to victory here.

UFC 301 Late ‘Prelims’ Under Card Odds

Jack Shore (+124) vs. Joanderson Brito (-148)

Both Shore and Brito come into this one with just one blemish on their UFC careers. Shore was subbed by Ricky Simon in 2022. Brito lost a unanimous decision to Bill Algeo in that same year. Last time out, Brito and Shore both scored submission wins, over Jonathan Pearce and Makwan Amirkhani, respectively.

Karolina Kowalkiewicz (+330) vs. Iasmin Lucindo (-425)

Former UFC trawweight title challenger, Kowalkiewicz, is a big underdog despite having won her last four fights. Lucindo is just 22 (16 years younger than Kowalkiewicz). She’s fought three times in UFC and is coming off a win over Polyana Viana.

Elves Brener (+230) vs. Myktybek Orolbai (-285)

Brener is the biggest Brazilian underdog on the card. He’s undefeated (3-0) in the promotion, debuting on short notice to give Zubaira Tukhogov a split decision loss (while at +470 odds). Myktybek Orolbai looks great having beaten Uros Medic last time out, especially after what Medic did on the weekend. Orolbai has nine finishes in his 12-1-1 pro record.

Jean Silva (-162) vs. William Gomis (+136)

Silva is a Contender Series graduate who KO’d Westin Wilson in his proper debut in January. Gomis hasn’t lost since getting caught by a Morgan Charriere heel hook as a 19-year-old in 2016.

UFC 301 Early ‘Prelims’ Under Card Odds

Joaquim Silva (+140) vs. Drakkar Klose (-162)

Klose is undefeated since his loss to Beneil Dariush in 2020. Since then, he’s only competed three times, though. He returned from an ACL injury in Dec. 2023 to beat Joe Solecki via slam (watch it). Silva is 6-4 in UFC. His last two wins were against Clay Guida and Jesse Ronson.

Mauricio Ruffy (-175) vs. Jamie Mullarkey (+145)

Ruffy goes by “One Shot.” He makes it to UFC proper after a technical knockout win on Contender Series last year. Mullarkey continues to collect frequent flyer miles here, coming off a technical knockout loss to Nasrat Haqparast in Dec. 2023.

Dione Barbosa (-205) vs. Ernesta Kareckaite (+170)

Both these women are coming off Contender Series and are looking to win their proper UFC debuts.

Ismael Bonfim (-535) vs. Vinc Pichel (+400)

The second biggest mismatch of the night, according to oddsmakers, has Bonfim as a huge favorite over Vinc Pichel. Bonfirm was perfect (2-0) in UFC before Benoit Saint-Denis ruined his night last year. Pichel, 41, has been signed with UFC for what seems like 100 years, but has only fought once since 2021.

Alessandro Costa (-125) vs. Kevin Borjas (+105)

Costa lost to Erceg in his last bout back in Nov. 2023. His other UFC bouts are a win over Jimmy Flick and a loss to Amir Albazi. Contender Series alum, Kevin Borjas, lost to Joshua Van last time out.

UFC 301 Prop Bets And Parlays

Ruffy vs. Mullarkey Under 1.5 Rounds (+124)

The oddsmakers clearly have questions over Mullarkey’s durability at UFC 301, setting a pretty appealing price for under 1.5 rounds. Mullarkey is coming off a first round technical knockout loss. Ruffy has won four of his nine fights within the first round. I can see a scenario where Ruffy shows he’s good for his “One Shot” nickname and puts away a jet-lagged Mullarkey. Or, maybe Ruffy is over-hyped as a 30-year-old UFC debutante and Mullarkey will catch him cold on the biggest stage of his career.

Borralho to beat Craig; Gomis to beat Silva (+178)

Borralho will likely be the bedrock of a lot of folks parlays with his suffocating and risk-adverse style looking like a nightmare for Craig. Gomis has good value as a slight underdog, when you factor in how much more experience and size (three inch height and four inch reach advantage) he has over Silva.

Brenner vs. Orolbai Under 2.5 Rounds (+105)

I think there’s a good chance Orolbai gets the finish here. He has 70 percent takedown accuracy — far higher than anyone Brenner has ever faced in UFC. I think the bout will end up on the ground and I think both men will be going for submissions with one of them likely to get one. Between them they have 16 subs on their careers, Brener has finished almost 70 percent of his fights that way. Orolbai has finished 40 percent of his fights with submissions, including his last win.

Let’s try something different …

In this section I’d like to try tracking fight results using several metrics, some serious, others silly. It’s just for fun and not meant to be a betting guide. The two metrics I’m looking at for the next couple of weeks are “wins minus losses” and “scrabble scores.” See, I told you this was silly …

Here’s the results of UFC Vegas 91 with fighters wins-losses in parenthesis:

• Alex Perez (16) def. Matheus Nicolau (16)
• Bogdan Guskov (12) def. Ryan Spann (12)
• Karine Silva (13) def. Ariane de Silva (9)
• Jhonata Diaz (6) def. Austen Lane (8)
• David Onama (9) def. Jonathan Pearce (9)
• Uros Medic (7) def. Tim Means (17)
• Victor Henry (17) def. Rani Yahya (17)
• Austin Hubbard (8) def. Michal Figlak (7)
• Don’Tale Mayes (4) def. Caio Machado (6)
• Ketlen Souza (9) def. Marnic Mann (4)
• Chris Padilla (7) def. James Llontop (12)
• Ivana Petrovic (5) def. Na Liang (12)
• Maheshate Hayisaer (6) def. Gabriel Benitez (12)

Fighters with the highest wins-losses score went 3-6-4

And now let’s look at the scrabble scores for all the letters in their full names (as listed on Tapology):

• Alex Perez (27) def. Matheus Nicolau (21)
• Bogdan Guskov (24) def. Ryan Spann (14)
• Karine Silva (18) def. Ariane de Silva (17)
• Jhonata Diaz (31) def. Austen Lane (10)
• David Onama (17) def. Jonathan Pearce (28)
• Uros Medic (14) def. Tim Means (12)
• Victor Henry (22) def. Rani Yahya (18)
• Austin Hubbard (21) def. Michal Figlak (27)
• Don’Tale Mayes (18) def. Caio Machado (21)
• Ketlen Souza (24) def. Marnic Mann (16)
• Chris Padilla (20) def. James Llontop (23)
• Ivana Petrovic (23) def. Na Liang (8)
• Maheshate Hayisaer (31) def. Gabriel Benitez (28)

Fighters with the highest scrabble scores went 9-4.

UFC 301 Poll Time

Which of the earlier props and parlays do you like the look of the most?

What else are you liking for this event? Hit us up in the comments below.

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Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 301 fight card right here, starting with the early ESPN+ “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 6 p.m. ET (simulcast on ESPN2 at 8 p.m. ET), before the pay-per-view (PPV) main card start time at 10 p.m. ET (also on ESPN+).

To check out the latest and greatest UFC 301: “Pantoja vs. Erceg” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.