UFC on Fox 5: Bold Predictions for Penn vs. MacDonald

Somehow, B.J. Penn’s fateful showdown with surging Canadian star Rory MacDonald has turned into the most personal fight on Saturday’s card.At UFC on Fox 5, Penn is putting his reputation on the line in a last-ditch effort to salvage what remains of his…

Somehow, B.J. Penn’s fateful showdown with surging Canadian star Rory MacDonald has turned into the most personal fight on Saturday’s card.

At UFC on Fox 5, Penn is putting his reputation on the line in a last-ditch effort to salvage what remains of his legacy. His return to welterweight has been fraught with setbacks, but “The Prodigy” is determined to maintain his elite status.

MacDonald is having none of it, insisting through various interviews and press conferences that he’ll hurt Penn worse than anyone else has yet.

But with such widely different fighting styles, how will the fight go down? Here’s a few bold predictions of how the bout will unfold in Seattle’s KeyArena, round by round.

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Gambling Addiction Enabler: ‘UFC on FOX 5: Henderson vs. Diaz’ Edition

By Dan “Get Off Me” George

This may be the 5th installment of the UFC on FOX, but somehow it feels like the very first time the UFC will be showcased for the mass cable viewing audience. With a card that far and away surpasses any previous cable-accessible card in the sport’s history, FOX has dubbed this week “Fight Week” and rightfully so. Both parties seem to be maximizing their potential for UFC on FOX 5, but we’ll have to wait until Saturday to determine whether or not the key to success on network television is having both title fights with a solid supporting card and the steady promotion FOX has offered for this event in the days leading up to it.

With a 3-3 record over the past 6 UFC PPV’s, it’s time for The Gambling Addiction Enabler to sink or swim (or specifically, find ourselves at the bottom of the ocean with a fancy matching pair of cinder blocks for shoes). So Join us as we highlight some of the undercard and all the main card bouts in the hopes of bringing you Taters some early holiday funds. All the betting lines come courtesy of BestFightOdds, per usual.

By Dan “Get Off Me” George

This may be the 5th installment of the UFC on FOX, but somehow it feels like the very first time the UFC will be showcased for the mass cable viewing audience. With a card that far and away surpasses any previous cable-accessible card in the sport’s history, FOX has dubbed this week “Fight Week” and rightfully so. Both parties seem to be maximizing their potential for UFC on FOX 5, but we’ll have to wait until Saturday to determine whether or not the key to success on network television is having both title fights with a solid supporting card and the steady promotion FOX has offered for this event in the days leading up to it.

With a 3-3 record over the past 6 UFC PPV’s, it’s time for The Gambling Addiction Enabler to sink or swim (or specifically, find ourselves at the bottom of the ocean with a fancy matching pair of cinder blocks for shoes). So Join us as we highlight some of the undercard and all the main card bouts in the hopes of bringing you Taters some early holiday funds. All the betting lines come courtesy of BestFightOdds, per usual.

Facebook Preliminary card

Scott Jorgensen (-240) vs. John Albert (+200)

Hovering around -270 Jorgensen makes the parlay must category. John Albert is 1-2 in the UFC facing opponents who I believe Jorgensen would beat hands down. It was not long ago that Scott went the distance with a guy named Renan Barao (maybe you’ve heard of him?) and I cannot see Albert, despite being the bigger fighter, being able to dictate how this fight goes. Jorgensen is one of those fighters who loses fights against the upper talent in the division but destroys fighters who are not part of that group (*cough* Ken Stone *cough*).

FX Preliminary Card

Dennis Siver (-310) vs Nam Phan (+255)

Even though we are talking 30 cents on the dollar territory, having a victory already under his belt against one of the better 145 pounders fighting a lesser caliber fighter is a good look for Dennis Siver. Phan is solid fighter, but not an underdog who can win here up against a better striker who has plenty experience fighting higher level UFC opponents. It might not be a steamrolling, but Siver should be able to out strike Nam and keep this fight standing possibly taking a decision on the cards.

Tim Means (-340) vs Albert Trujillo (+280)

Albert Trujillo will be making his UFC debut against Tim Means, who is sporting a perfect 2-0 record in the promotion. Another -300 fighter who is parlay bound, Tim Means has lost just once in the last seven years and has half a foot height advantage like he did in his last bout, which he finished in the first round in absolutely brutal fashion. Trujillo may be able to pose the puncher’s chance here and be tough enough to take this fight the distance, but I do not see him being able to outwork “The Dirty Bird” in this one.

Yves Edwards (+180) vs Jeremy Stephens (-220)

Anytime there is a 10 year gap between fighters, it is generally wise to go with the younger fighter and this is surely the case with Stephens (26yrs old( vs Edwards (36yrs old). This fight should be entertaining and I believe Stephens is the stronger fighter who is just as technical in the striking department and equally skilled on the ground as Edwards. Stephens has gone the distance against arguably two of the top 5 lightweights in his past two bouts while Yves has fought mid level lightweights since returning to the UFC with mixed results. A -200 line that says Stephens will not get KO’d, subbed, or outworked by a 36yr old lands this fight on the parlay as well.

Main Card on FOX

Mike Swick (-165) vs Matt Brown (+145)

Matt Brown has rallied off more wins in the past year than Swick has had fights, but “Quick” dealt with adversity well in his last fight against Demarques Johnson and proved he can finish a fight with his accurate striking. I believe this fight shows Brown as the small underdog based on the fact that Swick has the potential to win this fight standing or on the ground. Stephen Thompson had success standing against Brown but was a fish out of water on the ground and I believe Swick has the skill to keep this fight standing while out striking “The Immortal.” I like Swick and the nearly even money line is worth a look.

BJ Penn (+245) vs Rory MacDonald (-290)

Another 10 year difference in age combined with the fact that BJ has not found the fountain of youth beyond his improved physical appearance…again…has me leaning on Rory to make this fight look like round 3 of Fitch/Penn. MacDonald is very hittable and BJ has some of the best hands in the UFC, but Rory trains with GSP, has takedowns like GSP, and should not have much issue bringing BJ to the ground in this fight. I think BJ is in the wrong weight class and despite having an excellent ground game, Rory may just be too strong for BJ’s submissions game. He will likely take risks to deliver his trademark GnP to BJ with little regard to the threat of being submitted. I’m not counting BJ out completely, but we have seen the Prodigy move to 170 before and the outcome was a draw and a loss leading to a retirement announcement.

Shogun Rua (+185) vs Alexander Gustafsson (-230)

A little over a year and a half ago, Shogun was +170 going into his fight with Jon Jones as the LHW champion. This Saturday against Gustafsson, Rua is right around +185 and this may be an opportunity to take advantage of picking a solid underdog to win. Gustafsson has not fought the same level of competition as Rua in the UFC and while he has looked impressive in victory, the names he has beaten do not jump off the page just yet. Gustafsson could very well take this fight to the ground and control Rua early and often looking for a decision win, but Rua has the ability to end this fight on the feet and on the ground if he hurts Alexander on the feet. I see Gustafsson by decision or Rua by KO or Submission.

Ben Henderson (-155) vs Nate Diaz (+135)

Henderson is undefeated since moving over to the UFC and will be looking to defend his title against his toughest test yet. Had I not seen Nate’s last fight against Jim Miller, I would quickly predict Diaz to be taken down by Bendo and grinded out over 5 rounds. I made the mistake of picking Miller over Diaz precisely due to the fact that I believed Miller would be able to take Diaz down when the striking game was not going in his favor. What I did not know was that Nate has finally developed his take down defense, which leads me to believe he will be able to stuff the lightweight kingpin’s efforts to bring this fight to the ground. In the past, Nate has been taken down by Stevenson, Guida and Maynard with all those bouts resulting in losing efforts. Something clicked against Miller (who had never been finished) and Diaz controlled the fight from the get-go. Benson seems to be impervious to submissions, but if he allows Diaz to lock in a guillotine (like Cerrone) or take his back (like Pettis) he may find out how good Gracie Jiu Jitsu really is. Like Pettis, Diaz is heavy on his lead leg, which will offer a nice target for Henderson to hit, but Bendo was unable to take advantage of this against “Showtime” and I believe the same will happen with Nate. With an advantage in the stand up and submissions department, I will go with Nate Diaz to submit Ben Henderson to become the new UFC lightweight champion.

Parlay  1 ($15)
Stephens-Jorgensen

Parlay 2 ($10)
Jorgensen-Means-Siver-Stephens

Parlay  3 ($15)
MacDonald-Diaz-Means

Parlay 4 ($10)
Swick-Stephens-Siver

Parlay 5 ($5)
Jorgensen-Diaz-Means-MacDonald-Stephens

Parlay 6 ($5)
Rua-Easton-Siver

Please share your thoughts and let us know who you like and why.

Enjoy the fights and may the winners be yours.

UFC on Fox 5 Interview: Rory MacDonald Is Determined to Create His Own Path

When the next wave of mixed martial artists or future superstars are mentioned, Rory MacDonald’s name will be found at the top of the list.The Tri-Star fighter has steamrolled his way through one of the UFC’s most competitive divisions and in the proce…

When the next wave of mixed martial artists or future superstars are mentioned, Rory MacDonald’s name will be found at the top of the list.

The Tri-Star fighter has steamrolled his way through one of the UFC‘s most competitive divisions and in the process of doing so, raised his stock in the 170-pound weight class.

While a higher profile and acclaim may be things most fighters pursue, the 23-year-old MacDonald doesn’t concern himself with those matters. His only focus is continued improvement inside the cage and everything else outside of his personal evolution is dismissed.

On Saturday night MacDonald will step in against former two-divisional champion B.J. Penn at UFC on Fox 5 in Seattle WA,. The matchup is one of the most anticipated bouts on a stacked Fox card.

Despite the biggest fight of his career against an MMA legend looming around the corner and taking place on a high profile Fox event, MacDonald remains stoic and unaffected by the increased attention.

“It doesn’t matter,” MacDonald said. “It means nothing to me. Zero. This fight could not even be televised and I wouldn’t care.”

“I’m not trying to be a legend or make a name for myself at this moment in time. I enjoy fighting and I think this is a great fight. I think B.J. is a great fighter and I have a lot of respect for him. Fighting a guy as talented as him really excites me. I’m really not in this sport for status. I just like to fight.”

“I’m just going to be myself in there. I really don’t carry a new mindset for each new opponent I face. I just try to be me. If I beat him because of who I am and the way I practice—then great. If I don’t, then he is the better man. I know everyone says this but I feel that I’ve improved a lot. I am going to be myself but people are going to see the improvements I have made.”

When it comes to MacDonald’s preparation for his bout with “The Prodigy,” there is no better person to have in his corner than trainer Firas Zhabi. The Tri-Star leader has successfully game planned for Penn on two occasions as Zhabi‘s star pupil Georges St. Pierre has defeated the Hawaiian both times they squared off.

While the road to victory against Penn has previously been navigated, Zhabi doesn’t discredit the difficulty of the task at hand.

“It always helps to know your opponent,” Zhabi said. “It definitely helps but I wouldn’t say it is easy. It is going to be a tough fight. It’s an advantage to have been down that road but it’s a tough road to go down. I know how tough it is. I’ve seen Georges fight him and the preparation that has gone into fighting B.J. Penn. He’ s a tough guy and Rory is an extremely tough guy; that is why I’m so excited to see this fight.”

“Rory has more surprises to show. He has done a lot of things in practice he hasn’t been able to show in his fights. I think the surprises in this fight are going to come from Rory’s end because there is so much unknown about him. He is relentless in his preparation. He is completely dedicated to performing. He’s punching the clock, putting in the hours at the gym, and he reminds me a lot of the way Georges prepares.”

Over the past two years MacDonald’s momentum has been halted by injury on several occasions. He recently vocalized his intention to compete as often as possible, and heading into Seattle and the road beyond, his focus will be fixed on continuing his progression.”

“That has always been the plan,” MacDonald said about staying active. “I fought Nate Diaz and fought Mike Pyle a couple months later. I was scheduled to fight Brian Ebersole but had to withdraw because of a knee injury. Then I was matched up with Che [Mills] but that fight was pushed back because of issues with the card. After I fought Mills I had this fight scheduled with Penn a few months later but the eye injury happened.”

“Those have been bumps in the road. It wasn’t scheduled on my behalf to take that much time off. It is just the way it played out and I’m trying my best to eliminate those issues.”

Duane Finley is a Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report. Unless otherwise noted, all quotes were obtained firsthand.

Read more MMA news on BleacherReport.com

UFC on FOX 5: The Legends Have the Most to Lose

UFC on FOX: Henderson vs. Diaz is, undeniably, the best thing to happen to MMA on free television. Ever. Period.There has never been a show so stacked with talent, meaningful fights and guys who are absolutely going to show people what the UFC offers w…

UFC on FOX: Henderson vs. Diaz is, undeniably, the best thing to happen to MMA on free television. Ever. Period.

There has never been a show so stacked with talent, meaningful fights and guys who are absolutely going to show people what the UFC offers when it’s at its best.

If this event was a pay-per-view, fans would be salivating at the prospect of handing over $60 to Dana White and his chums to watch it. The fact that it’s on free television is almost too much for a man to comprehend.

Comprehend they will though, when fists start flying and leather starts landing come Saturday night in Seattle.

Over the course of the network program (which will likely lap FOX’s usual Saturday staple Cops in viewership, even if it can only offer a comparable amount of chaotic violence), two of the most revered legends in the history of MMA will walk to the Octagon.

Shogun Rua will fight Alexander Gustafsson in the co-main event, and before him, BJ Penn will return from retirement to try his luck against up-and-comer Rory MacDonald.

And both men have so, so much to lose, it’s not even funny.

For Rua, it’s more or less the same game he’s had to play since he was aged into near irrelevancy in his title loss to Jon Jones. Jones demolished him, to the point that many wondered if he was done as a contender literally overnight—as in, he woke up on Saturday as the best light heavyweight alive, and woke up Sunday with people eulogizing his career.

Since then, he’s had to face down the reality that at 31, people think he’s on the downside of his career. He’s 2-1 since the Jones loss, beating Forrest Griffin and Brandon Vera while suffering a narrow defeat to Dan Henderson in the best fight most people have ever seen, but he’s been getting by on durability a lot of the time.

Henderson couldn’t finish him and he gutted it out against Vera, but since Griffin (a guy a lot of people seem to be looking good against these days), he’s been unspectacular. A loss of Gustafsson, the man many believe to be the last curious test for Jones in the title picture, and people will truly claim Shogun to be toast at 205.

And only moments before the world finds out whether or not Rua is still a threat to recapture his former glory? Well, that time will be spent finding out if the most enigmatic man the UFC has ever promoted is still great, still worthy of his billing, still the legend people once thought he was destined to be.

BJ Penn has been the ultimate warrior in his career. He has fought anyone and still will fight anyone. He doesn’t like to train, hates being in shape, but boy, does he like to fight.

That’s why he came back. To fight. Particularly, to fight Rory MacDonald, a rising star who’s penchant for beating people up has led to a penchant for running his mouth.

Make no mistake, this fight is a nightmare matchup for Penn. That’s part of his appeal, though: He’s never asked for it easy. He’s a natural lightweight who could probably make 145 if he committed to it, but he’s fighting a welterweight who could very well be a middleweight before 2014.

That bruising welterweight said some things about Penn, mostly about his sizable paunch and year-long layoff, and the Hawaiian decided he’d like to punch MacDonald in the face for it.

It’s a big risk to walk off the streets of Hilo and pick a cage fight with a guy that no one else in the division is thrilled about exchanging punches with. But it’s a risk Penn is taking, and he’s taking it with the reckless enthusiasm of the kid from a decade ago who knew only how to “just scrap.”

He’s—get this—in shape. He looks mean, like he wants to hurt MacDonald outside of a bar just as much as he would want to inside the confines of a regulated athletic contest. He’s talking about his legacy, his greatness, and there’s a genuine fire in him that hasn’t been there for a long, long time.

No one has the capacity to get people riled up like BJ Penn, and he’s done it so many times before with poor showings that it shouldn’t still work. But it does. People want to see him fight, and they want to believe that he’s really back this time.

And so it goes that there are two legends on UFC on FOX this weekend that have more to lose than anyone else. Yes, Benson Henderson could conceivably lose his title, but that’s a thing that can be recaptured, especially when you’re on the south side of 30.

A legacy though? A legacy can never be recaptured. Once it’s lost, it’s gone forever. Nobody wants to be the guy who held on too long or the guy who might never have been what everyone thought he was, all because of a loss or two to the best young guys out there.

That’s what’s at stake for Shogun Rua and BJ Penn on Saturday night. Who needs a gold belt?

Read more MMA news on BleacherReport.com

UFC on FOX 5: BJ Penn vs. Rory MacDonald Head-to-Toe Breakdown

UFC on FOX 5 brings to you a four-fight main card that will feature a welterweight showdown between young contender Rory MacDonald and former UFC welterweight champion BJ Penn.The lead-up to the fight has had its share of trash talk. Penn will try and …

UFC on FOX 5 brings to you a four-fight main card that will feature a welterweight showdown between young contender Rory MacDonald and former UFC welterweight champion BJ Penn.

The lead-up to the fight has had its share of trash talk. Penn will try and make a big splash in his return to the Octagon, while MacDonald seeks to destroy a legend of the sport.

Penn versus MacDonald will be one of the most anticipated fights on the entire card when Saturday arrives, and the questions will be answered. The welterweight title picture may be more clouded as a result.

Continue on for the head to toe breakdown between these two elite mixed martial artists.

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UFC on Fox 5: B/R MMA Preliminary Card Staff Predictions

The fifth installment of UFC on Fox takes place at the KeyArena in Seattle, Washington, Saturday night.While the event has a number of exciting bouts on the main card, the preliminary card features some intriguing fights as well.Some of the preliminary…

The fifth installment of UFC on Fox takes place at the KeyArena in Seattle, Washington, Saturday night.

While the event has a number of exciting bouts on the main card, the preliminary card features some intriguing fights as well.

Some of the preliminary action includes Dennis Siver vs. Nam Phan in a featherweight scrap, Raphael Assuncao taking on Mike Easton at 135 pounds and the long-awaited bout between Yves Edwards and Jeremy Stephens. 

Bleacher Report MMA Featured Columnists Matt Juul, Dwight Wakabayashi and myself, John Heinis, will predict the action this time around. Take a look inside for predictions on all seven of the preliminary fights.

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