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Well, Vegas Knew Something About Cain Velasquez and Brock Lesnar

When Brock Lesnar came out around a -160 favorite against Cain Velasquez, many sharp MMA betters we knew where shocked. Not that they were expecting Brock to be -550 or anything, but for a guy coming off a defining victory like he had on Shane Carwin, and with more time to fully recover from his […]

When Brock Lesnar came out around a -160 favorite against Cain Velasquez, many sharp MMA betters we knew where shocked. Not that they were expecting Brock to be -550 or anything, but for a guy coming off a defining victory like he had on Shane Carwin, and with more time to fully recover from his illness, and Lesnar being the one guy the public knows and bets heavily on more than anyone else in the UFC, -160 seemed off.

Even more surprising, the public was betting that line down, moving Brock to around -140 come fight time.

There is a general rule in sports betting: whatever the public is doing, bet against that.

So if the public moving the line down and the majority of money is coming on one side, take the other side.

Most savvy MMA betters we know bet the house on Lesnar. Whoops. To twist a Denny Green phrase, “Velasquez was not who we thought he was.” Mind you, MMA’ers have mad respect for Cain. He’s a worthy champ and then some. But this one wasn’t even close but for 10 seconds. Cain Velasquez: new UFC heavyweight champ.

In the other fights, Jake Shields overcame what many thought was a bad match-up and defeated Martin Kampmann via split decision. Shield’s line went from about -240 to -200, and for good reason. But he grinded out an impressive victory and will likely be a force at 170.

Vegas had the line right on Matt Hamill vs. Tito Ortiz. Not a lot of movement, and it ended up going to decision for Hamill.

Looking ahead, UFC 122 won’t be a heavy betting card (many books only have one or two fights listed as of now). UFC 123 is the next big gamer one, with Machida currently -280 over Rampage. We’ll get odds on those cards up soon. Look for betting line previews in the coming weeks.

Photo Credit: Esther Lin for Fanhouse.

Forecast as Champ From Beginning, Cain Velasquez Reaches Lofty Expectations

Filed under: UFCOne of the hardest things to do in life is live up to great expectations. They come bestowed upon you by someone else, gifted or cursed with a tinge of pressure and with the assumption that innate talent will be matched by an unrivaled …

Filed under: UFC

One of the hardest things to do in life is live up to great expectations. They come bestowed upon you by someone else, gifted or cursed with a tinge of pressure and with the assumption that innate talent will be matched by an unrivaled effort to master your craft.

From the moment he entered mixed martial arts, Cain Velasquez‘s name has always been followed by expectations of greatness. Less than a year into his career, his trainers were telling people he would soon be the world heavyweight champion. His teammates said the same. The hype seeped all the way up to the top of the sport. UFC president Dana White signed Velasquez without ever seeing him fight, inking him to a deal on the word of the AKA camp and after watching a quick workout session.

Maybe that’s why we’ve rarely seen Velasquez smiling in the last two years, the weight of those lofty expectations on his shoulders. Finally though, he has his moment to smile. Facing his chance to capture the UFC heavyweight belt, Velasquez easily sliced through the monster Brock Lesnar with a first-round TKO.

UFC 121 Aftermath, Part One: Ding Dong, The Witch is Dead

(Valhalla was not quite what Lesnar had been expecting. There were fewer sexy valkyries and more big Mexicans angry about that shit he said. PicProps: UFC.com)
So, Cain Velasquez came as advertised at UFC 121. Brock Lesnar? Not quite so much. When Le…

(Valhalla was not quite what Lesnar had been expecting. There were fewer sexy valkyries and more big Mexicans angry about that shit he said. PicProps: UFC.com)

So, Cain Velasquez came as advertised at UFC 121. Brock Lesnar? Not quite so much. When Lesnar’s early Caveman Smash offense failed and he couldn’t keep Velasquez on the mat with his vaunted wrestling prowess, shit got ugly in a hurry. Of all the things the newly minted UFC heavyweight champion did well on Saturday night – face-punching being the most obvious – the most important and impressive may have been his ability to scramble back to his feet. As it turns out (and as some of you already suspected) the only thing Velasquez had to do to win this fight was keep it vertical, size and strength be damned.

Clearly, Lesnar’s standup game is still a disaster of the approximate size and scope of the Hindenburg and the cracks that emerged in his repertoire during his previous fight with Shane Carwin busted wide open against Velasquez. He lashed out with some knees and good straight punches early, but they didn’t seem to faze the undefeated AKA product. As soon as Cain marshaled the troops and went on the offensive it was clear Lesnar had no plan B. And lo, there was much rejoicing and celebration. The Dark Lord hath fallen.

The most pressing question now may be what unforeseen calamity will befall Velasquez? Motorcycle wreck? Lengthy contract dispute? Hole in his colon? The only thing we’ve been able to conclusively prove about the UFC heavyweight title over the years is that winning it is typically not good for your health. As for Lesnar? Well, it’s funny how you can go from ruling the roost to looking like a chump in just under five minutes. Now even The Undertaker wants a piece. That video is after the jump.

UFC 121: Lesnar vs. Velasquez — Live Results and Commentary and Beards

(Above: "Look, everybody in Minnesota grows a beard in the winter, and most of us use deer urine to keep it soft and shiny. I’m sorry if the smell is unfamiliar to you." Below: It’s nice to see that someone else appreciates the long and …

(Above: "Look, everybody in Minnesota grows a beard in the winter, and most of us use deer urine to keep it soft and shiny. I’m sorry if the smell is unfamiliar to you." Below: It’s nice to see that someone else appreciates the long and brave career of Dana Delany. / Photos courtesy of CombatLifestyle.com)

With Brock Lesnar gunning for a historic third-consecutive heavyweight title defense against Mexican-American upstart Cain Velasquez, belt-collector Jake Shields making his first appearance in the Octagon, and Tito Ortiz possibly making his last appearance in the Octagon, there’s a lot on the line tonight in Anaheim. Round-by-round results from UFC 121 can be found after the jump, starting with the Spike prelims at 9 p.m. ET / 6 p.m. PT. Refresh the page every few minutes for all latest, and please let your voice be heard in the comments section.

UFC 121 Weigh-In Results

Filed under: UFC, NewsUFC heavyweight champion Brock Lesnar will carry an approximate 20-pound advantage when he puts his belt on the line Saturday against Cain Velasquez at UFC 121 at the Honda Center In Anaheim, Calif.

During the weigh-ins Friday af…

Filed under: UFC, News

UFC heavyweight champion Brock Lesnar will carry an approximate 20-pound advantage when he puts his belt on the line Saturday against Cain Velasquez at UFC 121 at the Honda Center In Anaheim, Calif.

During the weigh-ins Friday afternoon, Velasquez stepped on the scale first, registering at 244 pounds, while Lesnar weighed-in (with massive beard) just one pound under the limit at 264 pounds.

Weigh-in results are after the jump.

Fighter vs. Writer: UFC 121 Picks With ‘Mayhem’ Miller

Filed under: UFCJason “Mayhem” Miller appeared only briefly at Tuesday’s EA Sports MMA demo at Universal City Walk. He beat “King” Mo Lawal via first-round TKO in the game, talked a little smack, then suddenly disappeared.

When I tracked him down aft…

Filed under: UFC

Jason “Mayhem” Miller appeared only briefly at Tuesday’s EA Sports MMA demo at Universal City Walk. He beat “King” Mo Lawal via first-round TKO in the game, talked a little smack, then suddenly disappeared.

When I tracked him down after the event had wrapped up, he and his friends were just finishing up in a nearby skydiving simulator, during which one of his friends lost a tooth that had been superglued into his mouth after being knocked out. This was treated as a hilarious misadventure that everyone, including the loser of the tooth, seemed to enjoy.

Just another day in Mayhemland.

After he’d calmed down enough to form sentences, Miller agreed to go head-to-head with me in a prediction contest for UFC 121. Talk about an adrenaline rush.