Tag: General MMA betting

Middleweight Championship bout: Anderson Silva vs. Chael Sonnen

Odds:  (-500 Silva /+300 Sonnen)

In the main event, the sport’s most dominant champion, Anderson Silva, will defend his Middleweight crown against brash wrestler Chael Sonnen. Silva has looked utterly unstoppable thusfar in the UFC, but he has never faced a wrestler as determined and dominant as Sonnen, so this is actually quite a compelling fight.

Sonnen is undeniably one of the most effective wrestlers in the sport’s history. Having fought at both 205 and 185, Sonnen has never faced anyone he couldn’t take down, and Anderson Silva doesn’t look to be the first. Every other part of his game is noticeably lacking, but his lack of standup has never really hurt him because of how unstoppable his takedowns are. What has hurt him is his utter lack of submission defense. Every loss in Sonnen’s career has come by submission, and in a five round fight, laying on top of a black belt for the entire duration is an extremely risky proposition.

Silva’s striking is clearly the best in the sport, and he can finish opponents with punches, kicks, knees, and any combination thereof. Against Sonnen, though, I don’t think Silva will get much chance to showcase his striking prowess. He showed against Demian Maia, Patrick Cote, and others that his striking is really only effective when he can counterpunch, and Sonnen is not going to give him that opportunity. Silva’s submissions are very effective, but his takedown defense has never been very good, so I don’t think this fight is going to spend much time on the feet.

I don’t think that there is any chance Silva prevents Sonnen from taking him down. Sonnen has taken down much better wrestlers than Silva with ridiculous ease, and he will do the same thing in this fight, whenever he wants. Silva is not going to get a chance to show off his dynamic striking offense because Sonnen is going to plant him on his back right out of the gate, every round. The question is whether or not Sonnen is capable of spending 25 minutes on top of a guy with Silva’s submission game and not making a mistake and getting caught. I just don’t see how he can finish Silva on the ground, and I don’t see how he can go that long without letting Silva sneak a triangle past him or sticking his head right into a guillotine choke. This will not look like most of Silva’s UFC fights, but he should eventually be able to catch Sonnen from the bottom to retain his title.

Prediction:  Anderson “The Spider” Silva via third round triangle choke.

• If you Like Sonnen’s chances he may be worth putting down a small bet @+300

To add a little excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Sportsbook.com Odds.  They allow you to start with as little as $20, and you can bet on all of the fights for the night. Check out my review of Sportsbook here…

Welterweight bout: Jon Fitch vs. Thiago Alves

Odds:  (-125 Fitch /-105 Alves )

Betting Pick:  Jon Fitch

In the co-main event, top Welterweights Jon Fitch and Thiago Alves will meet in a highly-anticipated rematch. In their first matchup, Alves was getting the best of it before Fitch caught him with a stiff upkick and then piled on him with punches for the stoppage victory. Will Alves finish what he started last time, or will Fitch come in with a different gameplan and take a second victory?

Alves is a very formidable striker who has knockout power in both hands and both knees. He can devastate opponents from range or work them over with a dangerous clinch game, although tying up with Fitch in the clinch might not be his best plan for success. There is no doubt whatsoever that he can and will outstrike Fitch, the question is whether he can force Fitch to keep his distance and prevent the clinch and takedowns. He is also coming off a one-year layoff, so it will be interesting to see whether he looks rusty or whether the time off has given him time to get healthy and work on his takedown defense.

Fitch, while he is far from the most exciting fighter in the division, is nevertheless one of the most effective. While he has solid boxing, Fitch shines in the clinch, where he is absolutely stifling, and from top position where he can control the pace of the fight. If he wants to win this fight, though, he is going to need a better game plan than he had last time. If he tries to trade with Alves for any period of time he is going to get himself into trouble, but if he can work his clinch game, use the fence to stall, and execute his takedowns he has a great chance of winning.

Even though Alves was clearly getting the better of their first fight, I think this one is Fitch’s to lose. For one thing, their first fight was a long time ago, and for another Fitch has been active while Alves has been out for a year and had major surgery. Alves will assuredly get his shots in, but I think Fitch will play this safe and stifle his offense against the fence, score points with short takedowns, and ride it out for an uninspiring decision win.

Prediction:  Jon Fitch via unanimous decision.

To add a little excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Sportsbook.com Odds.  They allow you to start with as little as $20, and you can bet on all of the fights for the night. Check out my review of Sportsbook here…

Lightweight bout: Clay Guida vs. Rafael Dos Anjos

Odds:  (-130 Guida /even Dos Anjos )

Betting Pick:  Clay Guida

The third bout of the evening is a very competitive Lightweight bout between submission ace Rafael Dos Anjos and frenetic wrestler Clay “The Carpenter” Guida. Dos Anjos’ ground game is top notch, but Guida’s pace and wrestling are extremely difficult to deal with, so this is an interesting matchup.

Dos Anjos is one of the most dangerous grapplers in the Lightweight division. His standup is not great, but he is an extremely prolific submission finisher who can work his jiu-jitsu game from any position. He has shown some trouble dealing with dominant wrestlers, though, and Guida is notoriously hard to deal with.

Guida, who is known for his wild mop of hair and his unstoppable fighting pace, is a very accomplished wrestler who also has some very underrated jiu-jitsu. He can probably give Dos Anjos trouble in the standup also, just because of the relentless pace he sets. His best work is undeniably from top position on the ground, though.

It seems like a foregone conclusion that this fight is going to wind up on the ground, either because Guida scores a takedown or dos Anjos pulls guard to avoid Guida’s constant forward movement on the feet. The question is whether or not Dos Anjos can catch a submission underneath Guida’s relentless top game or whether Guida will overwhelm him with cardio and ground and pound. Dos Anjos is wily on the ground so he probably won’t get totally overwhelmed, but I think Guida’s submission defense is good enough to hold him off for the decision win.

Prediction:  Clay “The Carpenter” Guida via unanimous decision.

To add a little excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Sportsbook.com Odds.  They allow you to start with as little as $20, and you can bet on all of the fights for the night. Check out my review of Sportsbook here…

Welterweight bout: Matt Hughes vs. Ricardo Almeida

Odds: (+125 Hughes /-155 Almeida )

Betting Pick:  Matt Hughes

The second bout of the evening is a Welterweight contest pitting Renzo Gracie disciple Ricardo Almeida against former Welterweight champion and future Hall of Famer Matt Hughes. Hughes’ best days are behind him, but he is still a formidable wrestler with very underrated submission defense, so this is going to be a very tough fight for Almeida, who does his best when he can control the position of a fight.

Almeida, who began fighting professionally back in 2000, returned from a four year hiatus from the sport in 2008 and has looked very impressive since then. Almeida is a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, but his game does not favor guard play. Instead he likes to wrestle and work on guys from top position, something that may prove problematic against a wrestler of Hughes’ caliber. Still, Almeida is very very good on the ground, and is more than equipped to capitalize on the smallest mistake Hughes makes.

Hughes, clearly, needs little introduction. A UFC legend and, so far, the most dominant champion in the Welterweight division’s history, Hughes is one of the most accomplished wrestlers in MMA history. His boxing is still quite rudimentary, but so is Almeida’s, so that shouldn’t be a huge problem. Hughes will do what he has always done, try to bully this fight to the ground and work Almeida over from top position.

Stylistically, this fight favors Hughes, past his prime or not. Almeida’s jiu-jitsu is most effective from top position, but he is not going to be able to take Hughes down on his terms. Hughes’ jiu-jitsu has always been underrated, and coupled with his stifling top game, Almeida is going to find it very difficult to finish Hughes off his back. Hughes should control this fight with wrestling and cautious ground and pound en route to the unanimous decision. It is also worth noting that Hughes is a good underdog pick, so this is a good moneymaking opportunity.

Prediction:  Matt Hughes via unanimous decision.

• Bet on the UnderDog Hughes @ +125 for the Win.

To add a little excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Sportsbook.com Odds.  They allow you to start with as little as $20, and you can bet on all of the fights for the night. Check out my review of Sportsbook here…

Below you will find all the information needed to help aid your betting decisions for UFC on Versus 2.  The action is on Sunday, August 1. 

Fight Odds & Betting Lines

• UFC on Versus 2 Betting Odds
• MMA Betting Sites

UFC on Versus 2 Fight Card

• Full UFC on Versus 2 Fight Card

Pats Expert Predictions

• Quick Pick UFC on Versus 2 Predictions Page

Detailed Fight Predictions

• Jones vs. Matyushenko
• Okami vs. Munoz
• Griffin vs. Gomi
• Ellenberger vs. Howard

UFC on Versus 2 Fighter Profiles

• Jon Jones
• Vladimir Matyushenko
• Yushin Okami
• Mark Munoz
• Tyson Griffin
• Takanori Gomi
• Jake Ellenberger
• John Howard

UFC on Versus 2 Video Promo

• Jones vs. Vera Fight Video
• Okami vs. Sonnen Fight Video
• Munoz vs. Grove Fight Video
• Griffin vs. Dunham Fight Video

Here are my Predictions for UFC on Versus 2.  I have detailed write ups for the main card and quick picks for the preliminary card. 

Full UFC on Versus on 2 Odds Page.

Jon Jones  over Vladimir Matyushenko via unanimous decision.

• Jones vs. Matyushenko Prediction Page.

Yushin Okami over Mark Munoz via unanimous decision.

• Munoz vs. Oakmi Prediction Page.

Tyson Griffin  over Takanori Gomi via unanimous decision.

• Griffin vs. Gomi Prediction Page.

Jake Ellenberger over John Howard via unanimous decision.

• Ellenberger vs. Howard Prediction Page.

UFC on Versus 2 Preliminary Card Quick Picks

Sportsbook.com Odds

• Jacob Volkmann  over Paul Kelly via unanimous decision.
• Matt Riddle  over DaMarques Johnson via unanimous decision.
• James Irvin  over Igor Pokrajac via first round KO.
• Mike Massenzio  over Brian Stann via submission.
• Thiago Tavares  over Willamy Freire via submission.
• Darren Elkins  over Charles Oliveira via unanimous decision.
• Rob Kimmons  over Steve Steinbeiss via submission.