Finally, the UFC brings another free title fight to national television as two of the fastest men in the Octagon battle for the flyweight championship at UFC on Fox 6.This Saturday at the United Center in Chicago, Demetrious Johnson …
Finally, the UFC brings another free title fight to national television as two of the fastest men in the Octagon battle for the flyweight championship at UFC on Fox 6.
This Saturday at the United Center in Chicago, Demetrious Johnson will make his first 125-pound title defense against The Ultimate Fighter 14 winner John Dodson. Both men have significant speed, but the real battle may come down to Johnson’s wrestling vs. Dodson’s knockout power.
In the co-main event, the arguable “real star” of the show could be seeing his last UFC fight as MMA legend Quinton Jackson takes on Brazilian slugger Glover Teixeira.
Additional fireworks are guaranteed in the next match on the main card, as Donald Cerrone battles in a lightweight title eliminator against Anthony Pettis. Both men are two of the sport’s most exciting fighters and carry plenty of experience as former WEC champions.
Finally, featherweights Erik Koch and Ricardo Lamas will be making their case for title shots in the 145-pound division, as they’ll open the Fox broadcast on Jan. 26.
John Dodson is just days away from the biggest fight of his career.On Saturday night in Chicago, “The Magician” will step in against UFC flyweight champion Demetrius Johnson in the main event of UFC on Fox 6, and a the 28-year-old will finally have his…
John Dodson is just days away from the biggest fight of his career.
On Saturday night in Chicago, “The Magician” will step in against UFC flyweight champion Demetrius Johnson in the main event of UFC on Fox 6, and a the 28-year-old will finally have his opportunity to prove he is the best flyweight on the planet.
With Dodson being a relatively new face in the UFC fold, describing his title shot as “long awaited” may seem strange, but when you consider the long road Dodson has traveled to reach MMA‘s biggest stage, it becomes clear Saturday night will be a moment years in the making.
After seven years competing on the regional circuit, the Jackson-Winkeljohn fighter made his official introduction to the UFC fan base by winning the 14th season of The Ultimate Fighter. Competing as a bantamweight, Dodson steamrolled through the reality show’s tournament and capped off his impressive run with a first round knockout of T.J. Dillashaw at the TUF 14 Finale.
Immediately following his victory over the Team Alpha Male fighter, Dodson joined the ranks of the newly formed flyweight division and wasted no time making his presence felt in the 125-pound weight class.
Dodson collected back-to-back victories in his first two showings at flyweight, with his most recent performance against JussierFormiga at UFC on FX 5 earning the Albuquerque-native an opportunity to face Johnson for the flyweight title.
When he steps in against “Mighty Mouse” on Saturday night in the United Center, his moment to validate the struggles and sacrifices will finally arrive.
“It has been a long time coming,” Dodson told Bleacher Report. “I’ve worked hard inside the gym and outside as well, to make sure I can get to this point, and everything can finally come together. I’m glad that it has come a long now rather than at an early time when I was a bit more inexperienced.”
The match-up between the UFC’s two top flyweights promises to be a full-throttle affair.
Both fighters are known to bring the action at a furious pace and their respective strengths present interesting problems for each to overcome. Where Johnson has found success using his wrestling foundation and an attack that always moves forward, Dodson’s take down defense and counter striking accuracy make him dangerous at all times.
The stylistic differences between Dodson and Johnson make it an intriguing bout and one the former TUFwinner believes he can win by using his skill set correctly.
“I think take down defense and my power are going to be the two things that are going to help me secure the victory,” Dodson said. “I really need to stay focused on those two things. I need to make sure I hit him with clean shots from the outside and be prepared to take him down. On the other hand, I have to work to make sure I’m not taken down.
“Demetrius Johnson pushes a really good pace and is so quick with his level changes. He can disguise a take down behind a punch and also the same thing on the follow-up. If he doesn’t get his take downs, he comes right back up and continues striking. I have to match his aggressiveness. My aggressiveness has to meet his forward pressure.”
While the main event on Fox is a championship tilt, there has been some brush back from the contestants involved as to how the upcoming fight has been embraced by the fan base.
The UFC flyweight division was only added a year ago, and the match-ups have been met with varying degrees of excitement and disdain from the normally passionate fan base. In addition to the fan feedback, recent UFC on Fox 6 promo spots ran during the NFC Conference Championship game, but failed to mention the weight class.
Dodson believes it will only be a matter of time before the fan base embraces the lighter weight fighters. That being said, he believes the moment to solidify himself as a marketable star has arrived and is eager to establish his name with a worldwide audience.
“Yes and no,” Dodson replied when asked if this fight was the “big stage” showcase he has been waiting for. “Yes, in the sense that it is a main event on Fox. I’m going for the world title and I’m looking to do something most people haven’t been able to and that is to defeat Demetrius Johnson in impressive fashion. That is what I want to do. I know it is going to be an all-out war, a lot of back-and-forth, and I would like to see it come out in my favor.
“Part of me saying ‘no’ is because I want it to be on a wider stage. I want more people to be able to tune into the fight and really be behind me on this. I’ve only been in the UFC for a little over a year. I know I don’t have that much of a fan following and I would appreciate if I had a little more of that fan backing so that people can understand who I am. Even if it is haters, that is still people talking about my fight.
“It’s not a pay-per-view thing at all. I just want more of a fan following. I want people to sit there and realize I am a guy to watch. A lot of people are sitting there not wanting to watch the fight because of the fact that we are flyweights. [Fox] didn’t even mention it during the ads that ran on T.V, and all they would say is that it was a world-title fight or a UFC title fight. They said our names, but didn’t mention the weight class because people have such a taboo hearing about 125-pound fighters. They think that weight should only be for females and kids.
“People say, ‘oh I haven’t weighed that since I was in the third grade.’ And you know what…it’s true. A lot of people haven’t been that weight for a long time, but it’s not the weight I walk around at either. I have to make that weight for the fight, but I walk around at what Donald [Cerrone] is fighting at right now.“
“I’ve been telling everyone it is just a matter of time before people embrace the lighter weight classes,” Dodson added. “Boxing is a great example. Boxing was all about the heavyweights because you had Muhammad Ali and Mike Tyson. But then “Sugar” Ray Leonard came a long and it all changed. He came in and people started to recognize talent at the lighter weights. Then Cory Spinks came along, and the process continued all the way down to the littlest dude who got all the attention in Manny Pacquiao.”
When the cage door closes on Saturday night, Dodson will attempt to make his dream of being a UFC champion a reality. Where winning one divisional title is an experience never realized by the majority of fighters, for Dodson it would be the first step in his master plan that includes adding titles in both the bantamweight and featherweight divisions as well.
It is undoubtedly a lofty goal, but ambition is never in short supply for Dodson.
“Being a champion in three weight classes is one of my goals,” he said. “It is something I want to do because everyone wants to dream about doing big things—but when you set goals, you have more of a reason to obtain them.
Duane Finley is a featured columnist at Bleacher Report. All quotes are obtained firsthand unless noted otherwise.
The UFC flyweights comprise the smallest division — both in size, and in numbers — but they’ll get a prominent showcase this Saturday at UFC on FOX 6, as Demetrious Johnson defends his title against John Dodson. So how do Mighty Mouse and the Magician stack up against the rest of their 125-pound competition? Analyzing an entire UFC weight class with a point-in-time assessment allows us to see how fighters might perform against each other, even though they may not meet in the Octagon for a long time (if ever). And since every fight starts standing up, we’ll also start with striking.
The Analysis:
In order to understand standup striking performance, which is more multifaceted in MMA than it is in boxing, I need to boil down a few of the most important variables that determine success as a striker. These are fairly uncomplicated variables in isolation, but together they can summarize a fighter’s overall capabilities. Here, I’ve focused on three fundamental, offensive metrics:
Accuracy: I’ve used power head-striking accuracy (as opposed to body or leg strikes, or jabs to the head), where the average for UFC Flyweights is about 25%. Certainly, great strikers can attack the body and legs, but the most likely way to end a fight by strikes is by aiming at the head. The accuracy of the power head strike is a great indicator of a fighter’s striking prowess, and there’s a wide range within a single division, as we’ll see. This is the vertical axis, so more accurate fighters are higher in the graph.
Standup Striking Pace: Prior analysis reveals that outpacing your opponent is a key predictor of success, and certainly correlates with winning decisions as it reflects which fighter is dictating the pace of the fight. Here, I’ve used the total number of standup strikes thrown as a ratio to the same output from a fighter’s opponents. All strikes attempted from a standup position are counted, including body shots and leg kicks. This is the horizontal axis in the graph, and the average for the whole division must be 1, so fighters with superior pace appear further to the right.
Knockdown Rate: The objective of every strike thrown is to hurt your opponent, and knockdowns reflect which fighters connect with the most powerful strikes. I’ve used the total number of knockdowns a fighter has landed in their matches*, divided by the number of power head strikes landed to see who does the most damage per strike. The size of the bubble for a fighter indicates their relative knockdown rate; the bigger the bubble, the higher their knockdown rate. The very small bubbles indicate fighters who have yet to score a knockdown in their Zuffa fights.
* The data includes all UFC, WEC, and Strikeforce fights through UFC 155 on December 29th, 2012. Many of these fighters competed in other higher weight classes, but for the purposes of this analysis, that data was still included and analyzed.
Now that we know how to interpret the chart, let’s see which fighters stand out…
(Click chart for full-size version. For previous Databombs, click here.)
The UFC flyweights comprise the smallest division — both in size, and in numbers — but they’ll get a prominent showcase this Saturday at UFC on FOX 6, as Demetrious Johnson defends his title against John Dodson. So how do Mighty Mouse and the Magician stack up against the rest of their 125-pound competition? Analyzing an entire UFC weight class with a point-in-time assessment allows us to see how fighters might perform against each other, even though they may not meet in the Octagon for a long time (if ever). And since every fight starts standing up, we’ll also start with striking.
The Analysis:
In order to understand standup striking performance, which is more multifaceted in MMA than it is in boxing, I need to boil down a few of the most important variables that determine success as a striker. These are fairly uncomplicated variables in isolation, but together they can summarize a fighter’s overall capabilities. Here, I’ve focused on three fundamental, offensive metrics:
Accuracy: I’ve used power head-striking accuracy (as opposed to body or leg strikes, or jabs to the head), where the average for UFC Flyweights is about 25%. Certainly, great strikers can attack the body and legs, but the most likely way to end a fight by strikes is by aiming at the head. The accuracy of the power head strike is a great indicator of a fighter’s striking prowess, and there’s a wide range within a single division, as we’ll see. This is the vertical axis, so more accurate fighters are higher in the graph.
Standup Striking Pace: Prior analysis reveals that outpacing your opponent is a key predictor of success, and certainly correlates with winning decisions as it reflects which fighter is dictating the pace of the fight. Here, I’ve used the total number of standup strikes thrown as a ratio to the same output from a fighter’s opponents. All strikes attempted from a standup position are counted, including body shots and leg kicks. This is the horizontal axis in the graph, and the average for the whole division must be 1, so fighters with superior pace appear further to the right.
Knockdown Rate: The objective of every strike thrown is to hurt your opponent, and knockdowns reflect which fighters connect with the most powerful strikes. I’ve used the total number of knockdowns a fighter has landed in their matches*, divided by the number of power head strikes landed to see who does the most damage per strike. The size of the bubble for a fighter indicates their relative knockdown rate; the bigger the bubble, the higher their knockdown rate. The very small bubbles indicate fighters who have yet to score a knockdown in their Zuffa fights.
* The data includes all UFC, WEC, and Strikeforce fights through UFC 155 on December 29th, 2012. Many of these fighters competed in other higher weight classes, but for the purposes of this analysis, that data was still included and analyzed.
Now that we know how to interpret the chart, let’s see which fighters stand out…
The Winners
Sniper Award: Louis Gaudinot landed 49% of his power head strikes in his two UFC appearances, while his most recent slugfest earned him Fight of the Night honors against John Lineker.
Energizer Bunny Award: Southpaw Brazilian John Lineker has outpaced his opponents by 60% while standing.
Biggest Ball(s) Award: John Dodson has landed 3 knockdowns in his 26 minutes of UFC action, finishing two fights by TKO. Given that size does matter in MMA when it comes to knockouts, it’s not surprising that a lot of flyweights haven’t scored a knockdown yet. But statistically speaking, Dodson is definitely punching above his weight.
Swing and a Miss Award: Newcomer Phil Harris landed just 1 of his 17 attempted power head strikes in his debut loss, resulting in his division lowest 6% accuracy.
The Losers
Smallest Ball(s): the Flyweights get a pass here, as 10 of 14 fighters have yet to record a knockdown. With more cage time, we’ll see how this shakes out.
Starnes Award for Inaction: Jussier Da Silva was severely outworked in his UFC debut, barely attempting one-third as many strikes as his opponent, John Dodson. Not surprisingly, Jussier has never recorded a (T)KO victory in his 14 career wins.
Introduced barely a year ago, Flyweights haven’t had a lot of cage time yet, and I do expect these numbers to shift with more fights recorded. And keep in mind that that caliber of opponents also influences a fighter’s performance, so the “MMA Math” trap also applies here. This Saturday we’ll see if Demetrious Johnson’s experience against top tier opponents in larger weight classes will allow him to outstrike John Dodson, the division’s current best-in-class striker.
Next week, we’ll look at the featherweights in time to see how Jose Aldo and Frankie Edgar stack up with the rest of their division. Predictions?
These “Quick Breaks” are short breakdowns of upcoming fights. In a summed up focus of strengths, weaknesses and variables; this will analyze what could happen in the fight, and end with this writer’s prediction. The UFC will be …
These “Quick Breaks” are short breakdowns of upcoming fights. In a summed up focus of strengths, weaknesses and variables; this will analyze what could happen in the fight, and end with this writer’s prediction.
The UFC will be putting on its sixth FOX event and will be bringing the first Flyweight title defense to headline the card. Demetrious Johnson will be taking on up and comer John Dodson in hopes of truly establishing himself as the rightful king of the hill. UFC on FOX returns to Chicago, Ill. on Jan 26, and will be live on FOX at 8:00 p.m. EST, with prelims prior on FX.
In the blue corner you have John Dodson. The TUF winner will look to take his fast career to the next level and attain UFC gold this Saturday. Dodson has shown some great power in his hands, and will be looking to definitively put away the champ. Dodson is riding a five-fight winning streak, and has great momentum going into this bout; paired with the confidence of never being finished in the cage so far in his career.
In the red corner you have Demetrious Johnson. “Mighty Mouse” has had an incredible career so far, and similar to Dodson, has only lost via decision inside the cage. Johnson has a speed and relentless pace that he sets that creates a very unique challenge for anyone who steps in front of him, and he will look to use that quickness to get the better of Dodson. Johnson is a very well-rounded fighter, and can dictate the fight wherever it goes.
The key aspects in this fight are the speed of Johnson, and the power of Dodson. Johnson has found incredible success with his agility and his stamina, and what has ultimately given him a lot of his decision wins. However, his ground game is where he has the advantage in this fight. Dodson has the striking advantage here; or at least in the power department. It will come down to if Dodson can catch Johnson flush, or if he gets frustrated and attempts to take the fight to the ground. Johnson may have a submission answer for him, but Ian McCall showed a hole in that part of Johnson’s game, and it may be something Dodson may try to exploit.
Prediction: Demetrious Johnson wins via Unanimous Decision.
(“Thanks Jay. Joining me now backstage is none other than…uh…wait a minute. You’re Anderson Silva’s son, right?”)
If you’ve been watching the NFL playoffs on FOX over the last couple weekends, you’ve surely noticed the frequent UFC promos throughout the broadcasts hyping a “World Title Fight” on January 26th between “Johnson and Dodson.” At no point is the word “flyweight” ever mentioned — because that would be a turnoff to casual fans, I guess? — and in most of the live promos I’ve seen, Demetrious Johnson and John Dodson‘s first names aren’t even included. Basically, they’re hoping that the mere promise of a “title fight” will be enough to lure some football fans into tuning in this Saturday night, even if those viewers have no idea who the headliners are, or what belt they’ll be fighting for specifically.
It’s a problem, because TV ratings and buyrates are so closely tied to who’s headlining each event. Instead of perhaps making Rampage vs. Teixeira or Cerrone vs. Pettis the headliner, the UFC is choosing to keep things vague (“world title fight!” “Johnson!”) and hope for the best. We’ll see if that proves to be the right decision, or if the ratings will plunge compared to the strong showing of UFC on FOX 5. I know the UFC wants to pump up its budding flyweight division, but I can’t help wondering if they’re doing themselves a disservice when there’s so little heat around that weight class. Could they re-consider their “championship fight always gets the main event” policy down the road?
Since I’ve been thinking about this lately, I’ve decided to present my own rundown of which fights I’m actually looking forward to this weekend. If you see things differently, please hurl some abuse at me in the comments section. Let’s begin…
(“Thanks Jay. Joining me now backstage is none other than…uh…wait a minute. You’re Anderson Silva’s son, right?”)
If you’ve been watching the NFL playoffs on FOX over the last couple weekends, you’ve surely noticed the frequent UFC promos throughout the broadcasts hyping a “World Title Fight” on January 26th between “Johnson and Dodson.” At no point is the word “flyweight” ever mentioned — because that would be a turnoff to casual fans, I guess? — and in most of the live promos I’ve seen, Demetrious Johnson and John Dodson‘s first names aren’t even included. Basically, they’re hoping that the mere promise of a “title fight” will be enough to lure some football fans into tuning in this Saturday night, even if those viewers have no idea who the headliners are, or what belt they’ll be fighting for specifically.
It’s a problem, because TV ratings and buyrates are so closely tied to who’s headlining each event. Instead of perhaps making Rampage vs. Teixeira or Cerrone vs. Pettis the headliner, the UFC is choosing to keep things vague (“world title fight!” “Johnson!”) and hope for the best. We’ll see if that proves to be the right decision, or if the ratings will plunge compared to the strong showing of UFC on FOX 5. I know the UFC wants to pump up its budding flyweight division, but I can’t help wondering if they’re doing themselves a disservice when there’s so little heat around that weight class. Could they re-consider their “championship fight always gets the main event” policy down the road?
Since I’ve been thinking about this lately, I’ve decided to present my own rundown of which fights I’m actually looking forward to this weekend. If you see things differently, please hurl some abuse at me in the comments section. Let’s begin…
#1: Donald Cerrone vs. Anthony Pettis (LW, main card): It’s the rare combination of “guaranteed banger” and “legitimately important.” Two elite-level lightweights who are known for consistently thrilling fights face off to determine who’s possibly next in line on the contender ladder after Gilbert Melendez. As far as I’m concerned, this is Saturday’s real main event.
#2: Quinton Jackson vs. Glover Teixeira (LHW, main card): I’m not as drunk on the Glover kool-aid as some of you — at least not yet — but man, oh man, do I want Rampage to get creamed. I’m tired of the constant bullshit, and I just want this story to end — particularly with a savage KO that defies any post-fight excuse-making.
#3: Erik Koch vs. Ricardo Lamas (FW, main card): I’m a big fan of Erik Koch, and it’s great to see him back after a 16-month layoff, trying to regain his place in the featherweight title picture. It’s also been interesting to see how Lamas has progressed from WEC mid-packer to undefeated UFC contender over the last couple years. My expectations are high for this one.
#4: Demetrious Johnson vs. John Dodson (FlyW, main event): As we learned in our first Databomb, finishing rates are strongly correlated to weight class — which should help explain why Demetrious Johnson hasn’t finished an opponent since 2010. And even though Dodson’s last flyweight match ended in a TKO against Jussier Formiga, everything that led up to that TKO was kind of awful. My relative lack of enthusiasm for this fight comes from the feeling that I already know how it will end: With Johnson earning a unanimous decision after five rounds that are so frantically-paced that the action becomes an undistinguishable mess of motion. And that’s what the UFC’s flyweight division has lacked for me, so far — the element of surprise.
#5: Ryan Bader vs. Vladimir Matyushenko (LHW, FX prelims): Two wrestlers who are coming off losses, and will likely be throwing bombs at each other’s heads. The result might not have a big impact on the light-heavyweight division, but it’ll have a serious impact on the fighters’ careers.
#6: Clay Guida vs. Hatsu Hioki (FW, FX prelims): I don’t expect a repeat of Guida’s much-reviled performance against Gray Maynard, but then again, Hioki hasn’t exactly been lightning in a bottle during his time in the UFC. The idea of Guida at 145 pounds is compelling, and he’s usually fun to watch, but I’m not expecting a Fight of the Night here by any means.
#8: Matt Wiman vs. TJ Grant (LW, FX prelims): Grant is on a three-fight win-streak at lightweight, and Wiman pulled off a very unexpected and impressive submission of Paul Sass in his last fight. Sure, I’ll watch this.
#9 (tie): Mike Stumpf vs. Pascal Krauss, Rafael Natal vs. Sean Spencer (WW+MW, FX prelims): I don’t think I’d be able to pick any of these guys out of a lineup. I know that Krauss is German, and that Sean Spencer is a first-timer — and that’s about the extent of my commitment to these fights.
#11: Simeon Thoresen vs. David Mitchell (WW, Facebook prelim): I honestly can’t remember the last time I watched a Facebook prelim. It’s been a while. That’s not going to change this weekend.
UFC on FOX 6 is headlined by Demetrious Johnson defending his UFC Flyweight Championship against top contender John Dodson.This will be Johnson’s first defense of the newly-minted title. He captured the championship by way of split decision over Joseph…
UFC on FOX 6 is headlined by Demetrious Johnson defending his UFC Flyweight Championship against top contender John Dodson.
This will be Johnson’s first defense of the newly-minted title. He captured the championship by way of split decision over Joseph Benavidez at UFC 152.
Dodson earned his title shot by TKO’ingJussierFormiga in October. The victory moved his UFC record to 3-0 overall with two wins being in the flyweight division.
The main event will surely deliver on action with two of the sports’ most exciting and fast-paced fighters. Johnson and Dodson will try to make a statement that the flyweight division is just as entertaining as any other under the UFC banner.
