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Gambling Addiction Enabler: ‘UFC 167: St. Pierre vs. Hendricks’ Edition

(JUST TAKE MY MONEY ALREADY!! Image via Adam Doyle.)

By Dan “Get Off Me” George

With a win over Johny Hendricks this weekend, welterweight kingpin Georges St. Pierre will break *three* UFC records: Most UFC wins ever (!), Most title bout wins ever (!!) and dependent on how long the fight lasts, most octagon hours logged ever (meh). It’s an intriguing prospect to say the least, and a fight that headlines a card stacked to the brim with equally intriguing prospects and matchups.

But you don’t care about octagon records or intriguing prospects, you care about money. Cash. Doubloons. “A whole lotta Kale chips,” if you know what I’m saying. That’s where we come in, delivering the pound-for-pound best gambling advice week after week after tireless week. So join us after the jump to sneak a peek at the UFC 167 gambling lines (courtesy of BestFightOdds) and get in on more gambling advice than your broke ass will even know what to do with.

Stay the Hell Away From:

Josh Koscheck (-105) vs. Tyron Woodley (-115)

Koscheck is looking to avoid losing his third straight while Woodley will be trying to avoid going 1-3 in his last four bouts. The skill sets of both fighters here are very similar — strong wrestlers who often opt for a stand up affair — hence the almost even odds here. But in a game of tag where both fighters have found success (coupled with Fraggle’s penchant for his signature eye poke), picking a winner at the window is a true coin flip. Skip it.

(JUST TAKE MY MONEY ALREADY!! Image via Adam Doyle.)

By Dan “Get Off Me” George

Stay the Hell Away From:

Josh Koscheck (-105) vs. Tyron Woodley (-115)

The Good Dogs:

Brian Ebersole (+180) vs. Rick Story (-220)

Ebersole coming in at +180 is a great line and possibly overgenerous when taking into account that Brian’s last loss came on short notice. That he’s been battling injuries ever since is not the most confidence-inspiring aspect of this fight, but Ebersole is still worth taking a risk on with a full training camp under his belt. Story was a world beater at one point but has gone 2-4 over his past six fights. In a bout that has a high probability of going the distance, Ebersole may be able to employ a grappling centric approach to nullify Story and get a decision win.

Erik Perez (-355) vs. Edwin Figueroa (+295)

Perez is the heavy favorite at -330 and it may be safe to say Figueroa is fighting for a job. The prop bet that this fight goes to decision is +120 and worth the investment, as Figueroa has only been finished once in his career and has gone the distance in 3 of his 5 UFC appearances. Perez is coming off a loss in his toughest test thus far, a decision loss to Takeya Mizugaki at Fight Night 27, while Edwin has shown he can go the distance with one of the best the division has to offer in Michael McDonald. +120 fight goes the distance.

Donald Cerrone (-115) vs. Evan Dunham (-105)

Cerrone is the very slight favorite here, but with a -195 prop that the fight goes the distance, I suggest placing two equally small amount wagers on either fighter to win by decision as a decent risk-reward option. Like the last card, this fight jumps off the page with regards to FOTN and should pay out at about +500 should it obtain that honor, making it too hard to pass up. If it is half as exciting as Sanchez vs. Melendez, that should be good enough to get the nod from Dana.

Tim Elliott (-155) vs. Ali Bagautinov (+135)

I might be in the minority here, but +135 for Bagautinov to couple his sambo background with a Greg Jackson game plan seems all too good to pass up. Elliott is the more experienced fighter and will not be held down for three rounds, but may be worried about this prospect more so than his opponent. If Bagautinov can mix up his attack like Dodson did against Elliott, he may find a way to stifle Elliott’s offense en route to a decision win. Elliott will try to earn respect early with a well timed combination and the confidence he gains could turn this fight into another solid back and forth FOTN candidate as well. +120 Bagautinov wins.

Other Main Card Bouts:

Rory MacDonald (-350) vs. Robbie Lawler (+290)

Since returning to the UFC ‘s 170-pound division, Robbie has finished both of his fights in impressive fashion and seems to be primed for one last run towards a title shot. Standing in Lawler’s way is the heavy favorite and GSP protégé Rory MacDonald, who many believe is simply too strong for Lawler to handle. This fight may play out like Larkin vs. Lawler, where Larkin’s diverse striking and effective G-n-P eventually lead to a decision win for Lorenz. Larkin is a 185er and as time goes on McDonald may be as well, so look for McDonald to use his reach, be first, and keep Robbie guessing at a distance.

Rashad Evans (-190) vs. Chael Sonnen (+165)

Floating around -200, Rashad makes the parlay. While Evans has shown some inconsistencies in his game as of late, one thing he has always proved is that he will not be out grappled by his opponent. Chael definitely is a high-level wrestler, a true threat to take Rashad down, but as we saw against Jones, is also not immune to being controlled on the ground by a talented/bigger grappler either. Rashad can win this fight both standing and on the mat; Chael really is not known for his striking prowess and will have to be the first fighter to dominate Rashad on the ground if he is to win. Rashad makes the parlay with more ways to win and the assumption that he is a better wrestler than Chael.

Georges St. Pierre (-270) vs. Johny Hendricks (+230)

Johny Hendricks will be bringing the most devastating left hand the WW division has to offer against *the* best the WW division has to offer. Johny is also being touted as the best wrestler GSP has ever fought, a slight against Matt Hughes perhaps, but maybe true nonetheless. The problem is, what if Johnny is the best wrestler GSP has ever faced and he still gets taken down by Georges at will like Hughes, Koscheck and Fitch? What if GSP favors footwork and one of the most underrated jabs (Freddie Roach inspired) in MMA to create enough distance to keep the fight standing and outside of Hendricks striking range?

The one caveat is that GSP’s most recent loss stemmed from a well-placed punch, and there’s no arguing that Johny Hendricks can do more with one punch than most. GSP was also caught clock watching a little over halfway into his last fight with Diaz, but Johnny is not renowned for exploiting his opponent’s cardio like Nick is. GSP should be able to do what GSP does, find a way to get the fight where he wants it to be and keep it there for 25 minutes. GSP to win -270.

Parlay 1
Leites-Evans

Parlay 2
Leites-MacDonald-GSP

Parlay 3
Evans-Ebersole

Is Georges St. Pierre’s Retirement Talk Misdirection for a Bigger Announcement?

(Georges St. Pierre, getting his lunch money stolen by Midoux and Zahabi. / Photo via LaPresse)

By Elias Cepeda

I may be wrong, but I’m pretty sure Georges St. Pierre and his camp are messing with us. In recent months, speculation that the UFC welterweight champion might soon retire after he fights Johny Hendricks this Saturday at UFC 167 has run rampant.

For the most part, St. Pierre himself and his head trainer Firas Zahabi have pretty much been the sources of this speculation, and since then they’ve attempted to discredit the rumor that they themselves got started. The latest “Georges should/might retire” item came from none other than St. Pierre’s long time mentor Kristof Midoux, a.k.a. the big old school fighter guy that recently appeared on the third episode of UFC Primetime: St. Pierre vs. Hendricks.

Midoux recently did an interview with French Canadian publication La Presse where he revealed that he told St. Pierre that, should he beat Hendricks in impressive fashion, the champion should retire right there in the Octagon. (Rough translation via Google/us):

“I said, after this, it’s over! Shine that night. Finish this guy in front of everyone. Shut the mouths of your critics. If you finish this guy, if you knock him out, then you will be free, you’ll be happy to take the microphone and tell everyone you’re done — to say that you will leave room for others.

“I told George, have the courage to take the microphone and say thank you to everyone. Those who do not understand are those who have nothing to understand, those who are selfish. It is time to think about him. This is the greatest gift that he could have. He could enjoy life, spend time with his family.

“I want it to happen like that. I really wish he doesn’t make the mistake of so many fighters. I do not want him to keep competing when he’s 35.”

(Georges St. Pierre, getting his lunch money stolen by Midoux and Zahabi. / Photo via LaPresse)

By Elias Cepeda

“I want it to happen like that. I really wish he doesn’t make the mistake of so many fighters. I do not want him to keep competing when he’s 35.”

Asked if he thought St. Pierre would take his advice and indeed retire Saturday night after fighting Hendricks, Midoux replied simply, “yes.”

After reading that interview, we thought that perhaps GSP was indeed considering retirement. But a couple of other recent interviews with the champion have made us consider another possibility: What if St. Pierre and his camp are using the retirement talk to A) hype the fight with Hendricks, and B) to serve as a distracting red herring only to announce big plans to continue fighting, perhaps at another weight class?

In an interview with Joe Ferraro conducted alongside teammate Rory “Mini-Rush” MacDonald, St. Pierre and the young contender said a couple interesting things. First off, they unequivocally said that they would never fight one another.

Then, St. Pierre gave some reasons why. Georges said that he has some plans for the future that he cannot talk about now but soon will announce, and also said that Rory will definitely become the new welterweight champion at some point.

In an interview with Yahoo! Sports’ Kevin Iole, St. Pierre didn’t sound like he wanted to retire but rather that he is hiding some super-fight plans up his sleeve.

“There are a lot of things I can’t tell you,” he said mysteriously.

“But I have plans. I’m ready for other things. We’ll see what happens. Moving up, moving down, fighting some other guy. I have big plans, but I can’t tell you everything. I just can’t give all of my secrets today.”

We doubt that St. Pierre is talking of retirement when he plays coy and smiles, promising “big” and “different” things. Also, what are the chances that the good ship GSP is so leaky as to have his head trainer, close friend and mentor all repeatedly/accidentally talk about his retirement? If they were doing so without the consent of the fighter, we’d imagine he’d get pretty upset about that.

So, if Firas and Midoux are all talking about retirement, but St. Pierre himself seems to be alluding to more fights, done differently, we’re guessing that this is all an elaborate ruse. Unfortunately, it’s worked.

Nothing against Johny Hendricks, but this writer is now suddenly rooting for GSP to win simply so we can see what top secret plans he’s got in mind. It would be the most interesting thing St. Pierre has done in a while, other than consistently and masterfully beat everyone up.

Video: Pros Pick Georges St. Pierre vs. Johny Hendricks

Even with arguably his stiffest test just around the corner, Georges St-Pierre’s peers agree by majority vote that the UFC’s welterweight linchpin will defend his strap for the ninth straight time Saturday.
Ten pros picked St-Pierre to prevail in the m…

Ten pros picked St-Pierre to prevail in the main event of UFC 167 while seven chose challenger and heavy-handed southpaw Johny Hendricks to come out on top. Seven additional fighters offered their opinions but ultimately couldn’t decide on the outcome of the long-awaited 170-pound title clash.

Aggregate betting website Bovada.com has deemed St-Pierre, who hasn’t lost since 2007, a 2.7-1 favorite (-270) to best Hendricks (+210).

For those who opt out of watching the video above, here are the results of the 24 pros who offered up picks for the main event of UFC 167.

Pros picking St-Pierre: Cain Velasquez, Brandon Vera, Demetrious Johnson, Anthony Pettis, John Dodson, Nate Marquardt, Wanderlei Silva, Glover Teixeira, James Te Huna and Frankie Edgar.

Pros picking Hendricks: Daniel Cormier, Phil Davis, TJ Grant, Junior dos Santos, Erik Koch, Sara McMann and Darrell Montague.

Undecided: Frank Mir, Chad Mendes, Mark Hominick, Sam Stout, Gray Maynard, Sarah Kaufman and Donald Cerrone.

Read more MMA news on BleacherReport.com

UFC 167: Johny Hendricks, the Man Who Would Be King

While all the talk swarming around UFC 167 focuses on Georges St-Pierre, Johny Hendricks stands at stage left, poised and ready, just waiting for his cue to step to the center of it all and take for himself that which no one can really give.
If you ask…

If you ask most of the fans, they say the champion is simply too good, smart or athletic to be defeated by a one-trick pony like Hendricks. They will regale you with a foe-by-foe analysis of the victims whom GSP has defeated in the past, using each one to illustrate why Hendricks doesn’t stand a chance.

For the fans, it is as simple as paperwork. It’s not a contest anymore; it’s academic. St-Pierre has managed to take what should be a fight and turn it into a contest of position; his is a probing kind of offense that is meant to offset an opponent’s rhythm while also allowing the champ to dictate the pace.

They say Hendricks doesn’t possess the conditioning needed to go five rounds with the champion. They don’t think he can stop St-Pierre’s takedowns. They point out that Hendricks has never faced anyone like St-Pierre, and because of this, he will be undone and leave just the way he arrived: empty-handed.

It is no secret what St-Pierre does: He will attempt to stick a stiff jab into Hendricks’ face all night long while circling and looking for the takedown. This game plan has served him so well in the past that he has no reason to change anything.

And amid all the talk about how great St-Pierre is, Hendricks is standing in the same position as so many others—the next in line.

Is it as simple as everyone is saying? Or is there more to it than a matter of history repeating itself?

St-Pierre—ever the kind and humble champion—constantly says that his next opponent is the most dangerous one he has faced. He’s saying the same thing about Hendricks now, but when you look at the men that the champion has turned away, you see a list of very good fighters who in any other organization would be (or have been) champions.

So what does Hendricks bring to the table that is so different?

He stands an inch shorter than the champion and will be at a reach disadvantage of approximately seven inches. He has managed to overcome reach disadvantages in the past but never against anyone with a jab as good as St-Pierre’s, so that is going to be a problem.

Also, many of Hendricks’ victims have been knocked out early or fought him with little in the way of a game plan. St-Pierre and his trainers are going to be coming in focused and with stratagems designed to take away Hendricks’ advantages while maximizing their own.

He may have caught other fighters unaware, but now everyone knows who he is and what he can do. Team GSP has no doubt watched his knockout victories over Jon Fitch and Martin Kampmann hundreds of times. If he was hoping to surprise the champion, that ship has already sailed.

If one thing about St-Pierre makes him so hard to stop, it’s his fear of defeat. In many ways, he is like Floyd Mayweather Jr. Both champions fear no one put in front of them. Instead, they fear the faceless specter of defeat. That is what makes them train so hard, and that is why they never stray from their game plans.

But no two men are alike—it is never as easy as history would have us believe.

Hendricks is the shortest wrestling-based fighter whom St-Pierre has ever had to face—save perhaps for Sean Sherk—which may (or may not) make it harder for the champion to get in deep on his takedowns.

In addition, Hendricks is a compact fighter, staying tight while working his way inside to either get a takedown or land power punches from up close. He has a near-perfect base for his aggressive style of fighting.

Another possible advantage is that he is a southpaw. In theory, nearly every weapon a southpaw uses can be used against him, but that is rarely the case for one main reason—the southpaw has far more experience of facing conventional fighters than conventional fighters have of facing southpaws.

The basics of striking say that when facing a southpaw, you must keep your lead foot on the outside, and you must circle to your left, away from the southpaw’s left hand. It sounds easy but rarely is, especially when you consider that one of the most damaging weapons is the southpaw right hook, which lands because the conventional fighter doesn’t see it coming.

Obviously, St-Pierre will be as ready as a conventional fighter can be in facing a southpaw, but the best way for him to nullify that is to go for takedowns. Engaging a southpaw in anything resembling a prolonged exchange—punch for punch, combo for combo—almost always sees the conventional fighter at a disadvantage.

So, it all returns to the takedown. The last time that St-Pierre faced a southpaw, he fought Frank Trigg. GSP ripped through him by attacking fearlessly and then scoring the takedown. While it was an impressive performance, it was also a long time ago, and Hendricks is a much different fighter than Trigg.

And lastly, Hendricks possesses power in his hands. Many may dismiss this threat, saying that St-Pierre has dealt with this kind of fighter before in the persons of Thiago Alves, Dan Hardy and Josh Koscheck, but that is a drastic simplification of things.

Hendricks is by far the hardest puncher that St-Pierre has faced during his reign. Should he land that left hand flush, chances are high that St-Pierre will fall and may not get back up. Coupled with his southpaw style, Hendricks’ power could force St-Pierre into a takedown-heavy attack, which in turn would leech a great deal of unpredictability out of his style.

And if Hendricks can keep St-Pierre moving backward and totally committed to defending against that massive straight left hand, he may be able to score some takedowns of his own.

Hendricks is in an ideal position: He’s the underdog who has nearly no pressure on his shoulders. He’s expected to lose by the masses who think St-Pierre can do everything, and he has fight-ending power in his punches, which means he’ll be in the fight until the very end.

And if he can stuff the champ’s takedowns, he might be able to dictate the pace. In that scenario, a stiff jab and some crisp leg kicks from St-Pierre aren’t going to keep Hendricks at bay for long.

But all of these elements—the advantages of St-Pierre and the advantages of Hendricks—are secondary to the question that reigns above all: Who wants it more?

Hendricks has everything to gain in this fight: The championship is officially up for grabs on Saturday. But he must fight every second of every minute of every round; too many other fighters have come out thinking that St-Pierre would be as reserved and boyish in the cage as he is behind the microphone, and they paid for the mistake.

If he wants to be king, he’s must take the throne by force.

Anything less won’t get it done.

Read more MMA news on BleacherReport.com

GIF-Ranking the ‘UFC 167: St. Pierre vs. Hendricks’ Main Card Fights By Interest Level

(If there was ever a time for GSP and Anderson Silva to form a 90’s R&B group, it is now.)

Despite the UFC’s best efforts to protect their pretty boy welterweight champion (SARCASM), Georges St. Pierre will in fact be facing top contender Johny Hendricks at UFC 167 this weekend. The fight headlines what is primed to be one of the UFC’s more stacked cards of the year (*fingers crossed*), which isn’t saying much when considering the cards that have preceded it, but still.

In any case, we’re not always the Debbie Downers you guys make us out to be, so we decided to rank the UFC 167 main card fights using only the power of optimism and the almighty gif. Enjoy.

#5 – Rashad Evans vs. Chael Sonnen

In terms of pure drawing power, it makes sense that Sonnen vs. Evans would find itself as the co-main event of the evening. But when we step back and consider what a win would mean for either fighter in terms of their division, it becomes a significantly less intriguing fight to say the least. (Ed note: I know, it’s not exactly the “glass half full” mentality we were hoping to establish, but baby steps, you guys.)

Simply put, both Sonnen and Evans have done about as much as they can do at 205 lbs: they’ve fought and been dominated by Jon Jones, they’ve picked up wins over aging legends in recent bouts, and they stand about a snowball’s chance in hell of receiving another title shot. Not that every fight needs to be a “#1 contender bout” to interest us, but throw in the fact that Sonnen was already supposed to have returned to middleweight after fighting Shogun, that Evans is coming off a pair of less-than-entertaining affairs and that these guys are friends/co-hosts and you’ve got all the ingredients for a snoozer.

Oh yeah, and Sonnen has admitted that he isn’t exactly thrilled to be fighting Evans in the first place. When The American Gangster can’t even muster up the energy to throw a slightly racist death threat his opponent’s way, look out, brother. Official Ranking:

(If there was ever a time for GSP and Anderson Silva to form a 90′s R&B group, it is now.)

In any case, we’re not always the Debbie Downers you guys make us out to be, so we decided to rank the UFC 167 main card fights using only the power of optimism and the almighty gif. Enjoy.

#5 – Rashad Evans vs. Chael Sonnen

#4 – Tim Elliot vs. Ali Bagautinov

While it’s somewhat surprising that a fight between two relatively unknown (albeit talented) flyweights would be bumped to the PPV portion of the card over the guaranteed barnburner that is Donald Cerrone vs. Evan Dunham, our expectations are still pretty high for this bout. Elliot has looked as formidable as any flyweight out there in his victories over Louis Gaudinot and Jared Papazian — the latter of which earned him a FOTN bonus — and was barely edged out by former title challenger John Dodson in his promotional debut. He also KO’d Jens Pulver in 28 seconds back in 2011, but we won’t hold that against him.

As for Bagautinov, well…he has only fought once in the UFC (at Fight Night 28), where he KO’d Marcus Vinicius in the third round after being dominated in the first. He’s also Russian, which means he has a granite chin and is perpetually fueled by despair. This fight has the potential to be a truly overlooked scrap, but we’ve also seen promising fighters choke under the brights lights of their first PPV fight time and time again, so let’s give this fight a tentative Official Ranking of:

#3 – Josh Koscheck vs. Tyron Woodley

Can anyone explain what the hell has happened to Josh Koscheck: Master Troll? It used to be that a week couldn’t go by without the guy calling us media types “retards” or publicly wishing that his former teammates would all die in a fire, yet we haven’t heard a peep from him in what feels like ages. It could be that he’s dropped his past two fights, it could be that he’s been battling injuries for the better part of 2013, but damn it, we’re starting to miss the brash, overconfident, ass-motorboating Josh Koscheck of old. Which is why we’re relatively excited to see him return to the cage this Saturday against Woodley.

Both Koscheck and Woodley hail from wrestling backgrounds and have shown that they can knock a motherfucker out when need be, so we’re hoping that this fight turns into a good old fashioned banger once they have soundly negated each other’s grappling attacks. I can’t believe I’m typing this, but I’m actually pulling for Koscheck to score a big KO here. Although he’ll never be in the title picture as long as St. Pierre is around, there’s no denying that Fraggle Rock still has some fight left in him. Official Ranking:

#2 – Georges St. Pierre vs. Johny Hendricks

What’s that, you say? St. Pierre is fighting a heavy-handed brawler with a solid wrestling base? No. Fucking. Way. WILL HE HAVE TO GO TO HIS “DARK PLACE” (for reals this time) TO DEFEAT A FIGHTER UNLIKE ANYONE HE HAS EVER FACED BEFORE, YOU GUYS? TELL ME MORE ABOUT THIS “PUNCHER’S CHANCE” YOU SPEAK OF!!

Don’t get us wrong, we’re as excited to see St. Pierre vs. Hendricks as we were for any of St. Pierre’s recent fights, but we all know how this fight is going to go down. St. Pierre via decision (50-45, 50-45, 48-43). Don’t even act like that last score is not a possibility given the quality of today’s MMA judges. Official Ranking:

#1 – Rory MacDonald vs. Robbie Lawler

Out with the old, in with the new. It’s as simple as that.

There have been rumors floating around that St. Pierre might just retire following his inevitable victory over Hendricks this weekend, rumors that were started by St. Pierre’s own mentor, no less. While we’re not biting hook, line and sinker (more on this later), it’s become quite apparent that St. Pierre is looking to pass the torch to his understudy/everyone’s favorite serial-killer-in-training, Rory MacDonald.

It’s not hard to see why. MacDonald has looked absolutely outstanding in 6 of his 7 octagon appearances, dominating former champion BJ Penn, former prospect Che Mills and Mike Pyle among others. That he’s on the heels of his lone disappointing appearance against Jake Ellenberger at UFC on FOX 8 (which he still walked away from with a victory) will only serve as motivation for MacDonald to skin Robbie Lawler alive and wear him as a suit come Saturday night.

On the other hand, Lawler has experienced something of a career resurgence since re-entering the UFC, KO’ing Josh Koscheck and Bobby Voelker in back-to-back appearances. Lawler will be riding some serious momentum into the octagon on Saturday and will surely be looking to capitalize on the lack of pressure being placed on his shoulders against a hype monster like MacDonald. And if by chance, he is able to knock out Rory, expect the interwebs to respond as such…

You know what? Let’s just declare that as our Official Ranking for this fight, because I’ve been looking at it for almost a half hour straight and cannot stop laughing.

How would you rank these fights in terms of pure excitement, Potato Nation? Give us a holler in the comments section.

–J. Jones

St-Pierre vs. Hendricks Fight-Picking Contest: Win a Sakuraba T-Shirt From Scramble!

Maybe you struck out in last week’s caption contest, but the fine folks at Scramble are giving you guys another chance to win an official Kazushi Sakuraba t-shirt in this week’s fight-picking contest!

As you might have heard, Georges St-Pierre and Johny Hendricks are going toe-to-toe this weekend at UFC 167 in a welterweight title fight. According to the oddsmakers, GSP is a -225 favorite against Hendricks — the champ’s narrowest line in over four years. But how will the fight end exactly? Shoot us your prediction in the comments section, and the two closest guesses will each win a shirt. Your entry should be in this format…

St. Pierre def. Hendricks via unanimous decision (49-46 x 2, 48-47)
or
Hendricks def. St. Pierre via TKO, 1:32 of round 2
or
St. Pierre def. Hendricks via submission (armbar), 3:08 of round 4

In other words: Winner’s last name first, and include the method of victory, time of stoppage, round of stoppage, or the judges’ scores if you think the fight will go all five rounds; we’ll need that in case of a tie-breaker. Please submit your picks to the comments section by noon PT on Saturday. Winners will be announced the following Monday. Only one entry per person, please. Any questions, let us know in the comments. Good luck everybody, and visit ScrambleStuff.com for all your rainbow spats and video-game inspired rashguard needs!