Tag: MMA Analysis

Strikeforce – Rockhold vs. Kennedy Post Fight Breakdown

Luke Rockhold vs. Tim Kennedy In the headlining fight of the night, Luke Rockhold defended his middleweight title with a unanimous 49-46 decision victory over challenger Tim Kennedy. Rockhold controlled the majority of the fight.

Luke Rockhold vs. Tim Kennedy

In the headlining fight of the night, Luke Rockhold defended his middleweight title with a unanimous 49-46 decision victory over challenger Tim Kennedy. Rockhold controlled the majority of the fight and did enough to win even if his performance wasn’t overwhelming. Kennedy was game but simply didn’t have the skills to threaten Rockhold. He struggled with the size and reach disadvantage throughout the fight and was never able to impose his gameplan.

The first round was one that could have been scored for Kennedy on the strength of one of his few takedowns. He managed to stay on top of Rockhold and maintain control but was unable to do any significant damage. Rockhold controlled most of the rest of the round pushing Kennedy against the cage and landing a few right hands. The second round saw Rockhold begin to take control of the fight. He stuffed Kennedy’s takedowns and scored one of his own. He took Kennedy’s back briefly and worked for a choke but never got close to finishing. Again, he landed several right hands and generally controlled the pace of the fight. The third round was Kennedy’s best as he gained his most dominant position by climbing to Rockhold’s back after a takedown. Again, this round could have been scored for Kennedy and was probably the one the judges gave him. The fourth round saw the most significant moment of the fight with Rockhold landing another right hand but this time landing clean enough to drop Kennedy. He attacked for the finish but Kennedy survived. The fifth round saw little action, which is a bit disappointing considering that an optimistic view could have had the fight at two rounds each. But neither fighter seemed to feel a sense of urgency and Rockhold deserved the round based mostly on cage control.

Neither fighter was overly impressive in the fight but Rockhold earned the decision and the right to retain his belt. As is the case in most divisions, Strikeforce doesn’t have much to offer in terms of competition at middleweight so we’ll have to wait and see who’s next for Rockhold. Kennedy has established himself as a quality fighter but has now lost twice in title fights and seems unlikely to ever hold the belt. A match with Lorenz Larkin would seem to make sense after his victory over Robbie Lawler earlier in the night.

Nate Marquardt vs. Tyron Woodley

Nate Marquardt made the most of his first fight in Strikeforce scoring an impressive knockout over Tyron Woodley. The fight also marked his first appearance at 170 lbs and the weight cut didn’t seem to impact his performance at all. At this weight, he’s going to be tough to deal with and shouldn’t have much competition in Strikeforce. Hopefully, he can put together one or two more performances like this and get a second chance in the UFC.

The fight started with Marquardt and Woodley both landing big right hands. Woodley’s landed on the temple and staggered Marquardt. But Marquardt was able to defend, recover and take over the fight from there. The key going in to this fight was whether or not Woodley would be able to take Marquardt down and we found out quickly that he was not able to do so. Marquardt stuffed every takedown attempt easily and the only way Woodley was ever able to get the fight to the mat was by scoring knockdowns with his punches. But Marquardt was the one landing the majority of the strikes and continuously battered Woodley with right hands. By the end of the first round, Woodley was barely able to stand and seemed to not be fully aware of where he was when the round ended. Woodley came out tentative and still hurt in the second round. Marquardt took advantage and continued to batter him with strikes. Woodley seemed to wilt as the round continued and Marquardt was in full control of the fight by the end of the round. But Woodley wasn’t done yet and showed his heart by exploding on Marquardt to open the third round. He dropped Marquardt with a flurry of punches and tried to finish but couldn’t land anything clean enough to end the fight. Marquardt recovered and was back in control of the fight by the end of the round. He then came out in the fourth wasting no time and looking to end the fight. He landed several big combinations before eventually backing Woodley against the cage and landing an impressive elbow and punch combination to score the knockout. Woodley was never going to win the fight unless he could consistently earn top position and once Marquardt established the pattern of the fight as a striking match, the outcome was inevitable.

Marquardt is clearly the best welterweight in Strikeforce and should hold the belt for as long as he wants. No one currently in the division is a threat to him. Realistically, he should be in the UFC but based on all the drama surrounding his release, who knows if that will ever happen. For Woodley, this will either be the fight that establishes his ceiling or the fight that motivates him to work harder than he ever has before. If his gutsy performance to start the third round is any indication, he will come back stronger from this loss. He has the wrestling base and athleticism to be a title contender but he simply does not have the experience to compete with someone like Marquardt. As his striking becomes more fluid and he can mix it with his wrestling, he still has the potential to become a championship caliber mixed martial artist.

Roger Gracie vs. Keith Jardine

The second fight of the night was a bit of a head scratcher. Roger Gracie completely dominated the first two rounds. But he was only able to dominate because Jardine showed an egregious lack of discipline. To start each of the first two rounds, Jardine rushed Gracie putting himself off balance and allowing Gracie to score easy takedowns. From there, Gracie completely dominated the ground game as would be expected. He repeatedly made his way into dominant positions and used them to slice Jardine’s face with elbows. He also spent a significant amount of time in the second round on Jardine’s back and was probably only prevented from locking up a rear naked choke because of all the blood pouring out of Jardine’s head making it difficult to hold on to any submissions. The fight was clearly over after the second round unless Jardine could pull off a finish. In the third round, Jardine executed the exact gameplan he should have used in the first two rounds. Instead of rushing in recklessly, he stayed on the outside and despite all the punishment he had already taken, was able to win the round. Two of the judges gave that round to Gracie but I can only assume their scoring was basically a carry over from the first two rounds. Had Jardine employed that strategy for all three rounds, he probably would have won the fight because Gracie showed nothing to indicate that he could have scored a takedown without Jardine so anxiously throwing himself off balance. Regardless, Gracie earns the victory and will likely get a tougher fight in his next appearance. Unfortunately for those who want so desperately to see a Gracie climb the MMA ranks again, he showed little improvement in his wrestling and striking. His shots lacked explosion. His chin was high and waiting to be hit. Better and smarter fighters than Jardine will exploit those weaknesses. Jardine continues to slide down the rankings and has now lost both of his fights at 185 lbs. Strikeforce’s relatively weak middleweight roster will likely ensure that he gets more fights but at this point, he can no longer be considered a serious threat.

Robbie Lawler vs. Lorenz Larkin

In the opening fight of the main card, Lorenz Larkin outstruck Robbie Lawler on his way to a decision victory. The fight went exactly the way most people thought it would. Both fighters came to the cage looking to strike. Lawler landed a solid right hand to Larkin’s temple early in the opening round but was not able to take advantage and finish the fight. After than, Larkin controlled the fight and Lawler seemed to fade as the fight continued. Larkin showed the more diverse striking game as expected and Lawler was never able to land the type of power shot that could have earned him the victory. Larkin showed no ill effects from his first cut to 185 lbs. However, he still needs to develop the rest of his game if he hopes to be a serious contender. Lawler remains essentially a gatekeeper in the middleweight decision and should continue to provide interesting matchups for Strikeforce because of his willingness to stand.

Strikeforce – Rockhold vs. Kennedy: Pre-Fight Analysis

Luke Rockhold vs. Tim Kennedy Headlining the Strikeforce card on Saturday night is a middleweight title fight between champion Luke Rockhold and challenger Tim Kennedy. Rockhold has earned eight straight victories after suffering his only.

Luke Rockhold vs. Tim Kennedy

Headlining the Strikeforce card on Saturday night is a middleweight title fight between champion Luke Rockhold and challenger Tim Kennedy. Rockhold has earned eight straight victories after suffering his only loss in his second career fight. His last two victories have been his most impressive coming against Ronaldo Souza and Keith Jardine. Kennedy has put together back to back victories over Melvin Manhoef and Robbie Lawler after losing a championship fight against Souza.

Rockhold comes in with momentum after dominating Jardine and finishing him via TKO in the first round. But his victory before that against Souza to win the belt was even more impressive. Souza is one of the better fighters in the middleweight division and Rockhold managed to keep the fight mostly on the feet and battered him from there. He has shown an increasingly diversified striking game combined with a defensive wrestling and scrambling ability that allow him to take advantage of his strengths in the standup. He will look to do just that against Kennedy who prefers to take fighters down and work for submission. Kennedy is a good striker but Rockhold should have the advantage and as long as he can keep the fight standing, he should be able to earn the victory. Kennedy will be tough to finish but if he does it, that would be another impressive statement. More likely is a unanimous decision after five rounds of high level striking.

Kennedy’s biggest asset to this point in his career has been his grappling. He has found the most success by taking his opponents down and working for submissions. He has also shown some excellent ground and pound. If he wants to use those skills, he has a tough task as Rockhold has shown excellent takedown defense and Kennedy isn’t a great wrestler. He will need to mix in his takedowns with his striking and time his shots as counters to Rockhold’s striking to have the best chance of success. He will also need to work hard to keep Rockhold down as he has shown an excellent ability to get back to his feet once on he hits the ground. If Kennedy can get Rockhold down and keep him there, he can win this fight. But that will be difficult to do and he will need to keep Rockhold guessing and off balance in order to do it.

Rockhold is the big favorite at -310 with Kennedy at +255. This fight sets up in Rockhold’s favor as he should be able to defends against Kennedy’s takedowns and keep the fight standing. If that happens, Rockhold should have the advantage and strike his way to a victory. But if Kennedy can somehow find a way to get the fight to the mat and control Rockhold , he could pull of the upset.

Nate Marquardt vs. Tyron Woodley

The first title fight of the night will feature former UFC contender Nate Marquardt and undefeated prospect Tyron Woodley competing for the vacant Strikeforce welterweight belt. Marquardt comes to Strikeforce after alternating wins and losses in his last five UFC appearances. He earned a decision victory over Dan Miller at UFC 128 in his last fight after losing to Yushin Okami in a title contender elimination fight. Woodley has been impressive in his undefeated Strikeforce run earning victories over Jordan Mein and Paul Daley in his last two fights bringing his record to ten wins and no losses.

Marquardt has long been one of the better fighters in the middleweight division but has been unable to climb to the top of division. Because of that, he has decided to not only drop to welterweight but has also made the jump from the UFC to Strikeforce where he can fight for a title immediately. Marquardt basically had no choice but to be a big fish in the small Strikeforce pond after the UFC released him. He has lost a bit of credibility in the past year with his testosterone replacement therapy saga but this fight is an opportunity to get his career back on the right track. He brings a well-rounded skill set to the cage with the ability to finish from any position. Against an excellent wrestler like Woodley, expect him to try to keep the fight standing. The key to this fight will be his defensive wrestling. If he can fend off Woodley’s takedowns, he should have the advantage in the striking game. But if he finds himself on his back, he’ll be in trouble. The other key will be how his body handles the weight cut. If this fight goes five rounds, his body will be tested. Any time a fighter makes a change in weight class the first fight is always a bit of a challenge and five rounds will only make the challenge even more difficult.

Woodley’s win streak to start his career is now at ten fights and he will look to make it eleven by earning the first title of his MMA career. He is not as well-rounded as his opponent and will rely almost entirely on his wrestling to earn the victory. He needs to be able to get Marquardt down and control him on the ground. At this point in his career, he doesn’t have the striking to compete on the feet. He has the power to land a haymaker but not the technique to consistently outstrike Marquardt. Because of that, he needs to focus on getting the fight to the ground and grinding his way to victory. The more he can force Marquardt to wrestle the better his chances of wearing him out and testing the weight cut become. His chances also improve as the fight goes longer for the same reasons. If Woodley wants to win, he has to make the fight slow and ugly. And luckily for him, that’s exactly his style.

Marquardt is the slight favorite in this fight at -130 with Woodley coming in at +110. That seems about right as Marquardt has a significant advantage in experience and Woodley has never faced anyone of his caliber before. If Marquardt’s defensive wrestling is good enough to keep the fight standing, he should be able to earn the victory. But if Woodley can be successful with his takedowns and maintain top position, he’ll grind his way to a decision.

Robbie Lawler vs. Lorenz Larkin

Strikeforce is showing a little love to the fans by giving us a guaranteed slugfest and more than likely a KO or TKO finish with a middleweight fight between Lorenz Larkin and Robbie Lawler. Both fighters prefer to stand and both have the power to finish. Larkin is the more technical fighter and uses a more well-rounded striking attack incorporating a variety of kicks into his game. Lawler prefers to box and mix in some powerful knees when the opportunity arises. However, Lawler may have the slight advantage in power and explosiveness.

The analysis for this fight is pretty straightforward. These guys are going to stand and bang and eventually one of them is probably going to fall. None of the major sites have a line on this fight but if they did, it would have to be close. Either fighter is capable of landing the strike that ends the fight at any moment. I could stretch this out longer to try to sound smarter but this fight is what is so enjoy it for as long as it lasts. I know I will.

Roger Gracie vs. Keith Jardine

To open a big night for Strikeforce that features two title fights, Roger Gracie will face Keith Jardine in the light heavyweight division. Gracie carries the banner for the first family of MMA into this fight against Jardine who carries the banner for ugly fighting styles. These two fighters are polar opposites in their approaches with Gracie coming from a storied Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu background and employing a traditional style that led him to great success on the grappling circuit while Jardine seems to come into every fight looking to make it an ugly brawl to create openings for his powerful punches.

Gracie’s striking has improved in recent fights but he is still a grappler first. He will be looking to get the fight to the mat as quickly as possible and avoid engaging Jardine on the feet. The question will be whether or not he has the wrestling to succeed in taking down Jardine. If he can, the fight will likely be over quickly after that. Jardine will be looking to ugly up the fight as much as possible and use his unorthodox striking to keep Gracie off balance. While Gracie has shown a willingness to strike, he still doesn’t seem to respond well to getting hit and if Jardine can land one of his looping punches, he could get an opportunity to finish his opponent. But he needs to be careful because if he stuns Gracie and follows him to the ground to try for a finish, he could find himself in a submission.

The bookmakers have Gracie as a solid favorite at -260 with Jardine at +180. I’m not sure why Gracie is such a big favorite given that the fight will start on the feet and Jardine has a significant advantage in that area. I’m also not convinced that Gracie will be able to drag Jardine to the mat before eating a few shots. Both fighters have a clear path to victory here and the winner will be determined by who executes his gameplan more efficiently. If Gracie gets the fight to the ground, he should be able to wrap it up quickly. But if Jardine can keep the fight standing, he has the power to finish Gracie.

UFC on Fuel TV 4 – Post Fight Breakdown

Mark Munoz vs. Chris Weidman I don’t know if I’ve ever been more wrong on fight pick than I was on this one. Chris Weidman is absolutely the real deal and he destroyed Mark Munoz..

Mark Munoz vs. Chris Weidman

I don’t know if I’ve ever been more wrong on fight pick than I was on this one. Chris Weidman is absolutely the real deal and he destroyed Mark Munoz. I thought the wrestling would be even. Weidman took him down immediately and easily to start both rounds. I thought Munoz would have a striking advantage. He never landed a significant strike and Weidman scored one of the most impressive knockouts in UFC history. I was a little hesitant to jump on the hype train but I’m on board now.

Weidman dominated the first round completely after scoring the opening takedown. He controlled position and nearly submitted Munoz with a guillotine from the mount position twice. Every time Munoz tried to stand or reverse position, Weidman was ahead of him and brought him back under control. Munoz didn’t have a single offensive moment in the round and had to resort to giving up his back to get to his feet at the very end of the round. Weidman opened the second round the same as the first and continued the script. Munoz seemed to earn his first minor victory of the fight when he found a way to get the fight back to a standing position. Instead, Weidman countered Munoz’ first combination with a destructive short counter elbow that should have stopped the fight. For some reason, Josh Rosenthal allowed the fight to continue and Weidman proceeded to punch Munoz in and out of consciousness while Rosenthal took an inexplicably long time to intervene. Regardless, the finish was undeniably great and Weidman is officially the biggest threat to Anderson Silva in the middleweight division.

Weidman’s victory may have earned him the next title shot and one more similarly dominating performance would have to guarantee him that title shot. I don’t know if he has what it takes to end the champions’s streak of domination but his skill set is scarier than any other contender in the division. For Mark Munoz, this loss is a big blow and he will have to win a couple fights in a row if he wants to get back into the title picture. But the story coming out of this fight is obviously the arrival of Chris Weidman. The impressiveness of this victory cannot be overstated.

James Te Huna vs. Joey Beltran

In a surprise to everyone, the light heavyweight slugfest between James Te Huna and Joey Beltran went to a decision. Less surprising was Te Huna having his arm raised at the end. The first round went exactly according to script as the two big bangers came out swinging. Both landed some heavy shots but Te Huna consistently got the better of the exchanges and scored the bigger punches. He hurt Beltran badly in the final minute of round one and pounced for the finish. Beltran’s brick chin and the bell signaling the end of the round were the only thing that saved him from a TKO. Te Huna seemed to burn out his arms trying to finish Beltran and didn’t have the explosiveness in his punches to score the knockout later in the fight. He continued to dominate in the second round but seemed to tire significantly by the third round allowing Beltran back into the fight.

Te Huna continues to climb in the light heavyweight division but will need to further diversify his game with wrestling and grappling if he wants to succeed against more well-rounded fighters. This fight going three rounds may prove to be a blessing for him as he now knows what it feels like to go fifteen minutes in the UFC and should be motivated to improve his conditioning. For Beltran, this outcome doesn’t change his status. He is never going to be a top tier fighter but his relentlessness and superhuman chin guarantee an exciting fight every time he steps in the cage with another striker. When Joe Silva needs a slugfest to add some entertainment to a card, he knows who to call.


Aaron Simpson vs. Kenny Robertson

Aaron Simpson looked impressive in his debut at welterweight doing everything but finishing Kenny Robertson on his way to a unanimous decision. Simpson realized early in the first round that he had the wrestling advantage and used that to control his opponent throughout the fight. He didn’t threaten to finish the fight until the very end of the third round but completely controlled Robertson for all fifteen minutes. He repeatedly took his opponent down and maintained top position landing effective ground and pound along the way. His cardio looked solid and he didn’t seem to tire as the fight progressed. At thirty seven years old, it might be too late for him to make a serious run at 170 lbs but he should provide some interesting fights in the division. Robertson might be on his way back out of the UFC after his second consecutive loss. He was brought in as a late replacement for Jon Fitch and didn’t do anything to earn another opportunity.

Francis Carmont vs. Karlos Vemola

The third fight of the night marked the arrival of Francis Carmont as a factor in the middleweight division. Carmont has been competing in MMA since 2004 but is just now showing signs of fulfilling his potential. He has always been a huge middleweight and looked significantly larger than Vemola who is one of the bigger fighters at 185 lbs. He looked good in the first round taking advantage of Vemola’s guillotine attempts to gain top position. He locked on to an Americana and was close to finishing but Vemola managed to survive. He started the second round by landing a big front kick. After a scramble, Carmont brought Vemola to the mat in the crucifix position and transitioned quickly into a rear naked choke to earn the finish. Carmont is likely to face a significant step up in competition as he is already thirty years old. If he is ever going to make a serious run in the UFC, this is the moment in his career to make it happen. He has always had the requisite athleticism but now he seems to be putting together the kind of well-rounded game that could make him a legitimate contender. Vemola took a step in the opposite direction and will need to improve if he wants to be a threat in the UFC. He is explosive but showed some questionable decision making and didn’t seem to be executing any sort of gameplan. It takes more than athleticism to compete in the UFC and he needs to improve in his approach if he hopes to take advantage of his raw ability.

T.J. Dillashaw vs. Vaughan Lee

What looked to be a mismatch on paper proved also to be a mismatch in the octagon. Lee came out looking to finish the fight with every strike he threw but Dillashaw evaded easily and landed a few strikes of his own. He then landed a takedown off of a Vaughan kick and moved to top position. Lee gave his back to stand up and Dillashaw took advantage climbing on and sinking in both hooks. From there, he quickly slipped his arm under Lee’s neck and finished the fight with a rear naked choke. For Dillashaw, this was exactly the performance he needed and his stock is rising quickly at bantamweight. Training at Team Alpha Male ensures that he will continue to improve rapidly so look for him to become a factor at 135 lbs. A loss like this and a record of 12-8 likely puts Lee on the brink of leaving the UFC. His upset of Norifumi Yamamoto in his UFC debut might earn him one more chance in the octagon but I can’t see him lasting beyond that.

Anthony Njokuani vs. Rafael Dos Anjos

In the first fight of the night, Rafael Dos Anjos dominated Anthony Njokuani on his way to a unanimous decision. Dos Anjos dropped Njokuani with a left to establish control early in the first round and was never seriously threatened at any point in the fight. After the knockdown, he scored several takedowns in succession showing greatly improved wrestling. He matched that wrestling improvement with an improvement in striking proving to be at least the equal of Njokuani who is one of the best strikers in the division. After the first round, Njokuani told his corner that he had broken his right hand. Assessing the impact of an injury mid-fight is difficult but even with a full arsenal of weapons, Njokuani likely would not have been able to defeat Dos Anjos. The second and third rounds followed the same script as the first with Dos Anjos holding his own on the feet and dominating the wrestling and grappling exchanges. If Dos Anjos continues to improve the way he has in his past few fights, he will be a serious threat in the lightweight division. He already has some of the best jiu-jitsu at 155 lbs and the addition of a serious wrestling and striking game makes him a contender. On the opposite end of the spectrum, Njokuani seems to be stuck. His striking is impressive but he just doesn’t have the wrestling or grappling to compete at a high level. He can still put on exciting fights when matched up with strikers but doesn’t seem to be a serious threat in the absurdly deep UFC lightweight division.

UFC 148 Pre-Fight Analysis: Part I

Anderson Silva vs. Chael Sonnen The headliner for UFC 148 is one of the most anticipated fights in UFC history. The first title fight between Anderson Silva and Chael Sonnen was a classic and the.

Anderson Silva vs. Chael Sonnen

The headliner for UFC 148 is one of the most anticipated fights in UFC history. The first title fight between Anderson Silva and Chael Sonnen was a classic and the storylines have only continued to grow since then. Sonnen has served as the provocateur for the rivalry between these two with his constant verbal attack through any media outlet that will broadcast or print his increasingly impressive arsenal of trash talk. Until recently, Silva has played the role of the professional fighter remaining calm and promising to do his talking in the octagon. But that changed in the last few weeks as Silva has either joined into to the promotion efforts or genuinely snapped after two years of listening to Chael’s undeniably creative ranting. Either way, the entertainment value leading up to this fight is the best since Chuck Liddell and Tito Ortiz set the standard for MMA rivalries.

When breaking down a rematch, the most important thing to look at is the first fight. The first fight between Sonnen and Silva was one of the greatest in UFC history and probably was the greatest come from behind victory in UFC history considering the stakes. It cannot be understated how significant Sonnen’s control of the fight was up until the moment Silva locked up the triangle that saved his belt late in the fifth round. Every round played out exactly the same with Sonnen aggressively closing the distance on Silva with punches and pushing him up against the cage before landing a takedown. I’m not often shocked by what I see in a fight but I will never forget having to admit to myself in about the third round that Chael Sonnen was outstriking Anderson Silva. Silva obviously has the advantage in technique and the margin is about equal to the length of the wall in China. But Sonnen was relentless and never gave Silva a chance to settle into a rhythm, which resulted in Silva maybe landing one or two off balance shots as Sonnen was rushing him and landing combinations. Sonnen then used that pressure to get Silva off balance and put him on his back. From there, Sonnen focused more on maintaining control rather than finishing and hammer fisted his way to an unquestionable four round to zero lead. The fifth round started exactly the same as the others. By this time, I was actually squatting on my haunches six inches in front of the TV because I couldn’t believe what I was seeing. And then, out of nowhere, Silva slipped his legs around Sonnen’s neck. Sonnen seemed caught off guard and failed to defend until it was too late. Even more surprisingly, he panic tapped almost immediately and never gave himself a chance to escape. He tapped like it was a training session. He seemed to suddenly realize that he was minutes away from the most important victory of his career and tried to pretend he didn’t tap but he had and in a span of about ten seconds, Anderson Silva went from a certain defeat to one of the most unbelievable victories in UFC history. If Silva was trying to crush Sonnen’s soul as pay back for all the trash talk, he couldn’t have come up with a better way to do it.

That leads us to this fight. Anderson Silva is a smart fighter and he trains at one of the best camps in the world. He will learn from his mistakes in the first fight. But Sonnen is also a smart fighter and he also trains at one of the best camps in the world. The pressure is on him to come up with a strategy that will be as successful as the one he employed in the first fight. If he employs the same strategy, he will likely find himself hurt by Silva’s pinpoint counterstriking ability, which he will have undoubtedly been honing in his camp for this fight. Sonnen’s aggression caught the champion by surprise in the first fight but he will be prepared for it this time. Sonnen will likely have to come up with a new way to set up his takedowns if he wants to achieve a similar level of success as he did in the first fight. And if he does, expect Silva to be more aggressive with submission attempts in the earlier rounds. Sonnen has been susceptible to triangles and armbars throughout his career and Silva has the jiu-jitsu skills to lock up Sonnen if he leaves an opening. But Sonnen should be drilling those fundamental defensive grappling skills hard in his camp so Silva may have to work harder if he wants to find that opening.

The odds on this fight currently have Silva favored at -290 with Sonnen the underdog at +240. Silva is clearly the favorite and the line is appropriate but the possibility exists that Sonnen’s skill set is the kryptonite for the middleweight champion. Most people thought Frankie Edgar’s split decision victory over BJ Penn was a fluke and that Penn would dominate in the rematch. It took ten full rounds for Edgar to convince the MMA world that he was better than the legend. That’s probably not an entirely fair analogy because Chael Sonnen is much more of a known entity now than Frankie Edgar was heading into his fights with BJ Penn. But the point remains that no one should be completely stunned if Sonnen is able to do exactly what he did in the first fight and then continue that for the three minutes it would have taken to earn a victory the first time around. He has proven that he can beat Anderson Silva and if he does, it can’t be considered a fluke. But the more likely outcome is that Silva harnesses all the energy and motivation he has displayed in the last week and releases it in one devastatingly accurate strike on Sonnen’s face. Either way, if this fight can find a way to live up to all of the hype, the MMA community will be in for an exciting and possible even historic night.

Tito Ortiz vs. Forrest Griffin

Fight fans love trilogies and as the warm up for the night’s main event, the UFC is giving us a third fight between veterans Forrest Griffin and Tito Ortiz. Realistically, this is probably not going to be a great fight. But this is the type of fight that makes enough sense from a historical perspective to outweigh what the actual quality of the fight might be. Both of these fighters have earned their place in the history of the UFC. Tito Ortiz is one of the original stars of MMA and has done as much to increase its popularity as any other individual fighter. Forrest Griffin took part in the critical mass moment for the UFC when he fought Stephan Bonnar on the original Ultimate Fighter finale. Both are former champions in the 205 pound division. They have fought each other twice before with each earning a split decision victory. Both men might retire after the fight. For all of those reasons, this fight makes sense and deserves second billing on a major card.

As far as the actual fight analysis, we’ve already seen this fight twice. Tito Ortiz is a solid wrestler whose striking and jiu-jitsu have improved greatly over the course of his career. His greatest asset has always been his ground and pound and he will look to utilize it in this fight. Forrest Griffin generally prefers to keep his fights standing but he too is capable on the ground. Expect to see all areas of the game explored in this fight. Expect to see both fighters on their backs at some point. Expect to see both fighters land strikes on the feet. Basically, expect more of what we saw in their first two fights. The fight will likely be decided by who can gain an advantage in where the fight takes place. If Ortiz can land enough takedowns and do some damage from top position, he’ll earn the victory. If Griffin can keep the fight standing, he will have the striking advantage and he’ll earn the victory. This is a classic “who can impose his will” type of situation.

Forrest Griffin comes into this fight as the significant favorite at -320 and Ortiz is the underdog at +260. Griffin deserves to be the favorite but I’m not sure why the line is so far in his favor. Ortiz is perfectly capable of winning this fight. These two men have fought a total of six rounds and three of those have been scored for Ortiz so he’s capable of taking two out of three on Saturday night. That said, Griffin should be able to use his defensive wrestling to keep the fight standing and strike his way to a decision victory. But if Ortiz can land his takedowns, the complexion of this fight will change drastically.

UFC 148 Pre-Fight Analysis: Part II

Cung Le vs. Patrick Cote In a matchup clearly designed for entertainment, fan favorite Cung Le will face veteran Patrick Cote. Strikeforce tried to make Cung Le a superstar. They tried to sell his san.

Cung Le vs. Patrick Cote

In a matchup clearly designed for entertainment, fan favorite Cung Le will face veteran Patrick Cote. Strikeforce tried to make Cung Le a superstar. They tried to sell his san shou background and his wrestling background and his acting credentials. But the reality is that he’s a forty year old fighter with a 7-2 career record and no significant wins. He lost in his last fight against Wanderlei Silva, which proves he is not an elite fighter at middleweight. The UFC knew this when they brought him over from Strikeforce and they are using him to generate exciting fights against fighters who will be willing to stand with him. Enter Patrick Cote. Cote gets a chance to defeat a name fighter in his return to the octagon after being let go following three consecutive losses to Anderson Silva, Alan Belcher and Tom Lawlor. In hindsight, that release may have been premature given the emergence of Belcher.

This fight is not complicated to analyze. It will take place mostly on the feet. Le will employ all of the kicks and spinning techniques fans expect from him. He will use his wrestling defensively to keep the fight standing if Cote decides to strike. Le has the technical ability to keep Cote at a distance and outstrike him. He even has the power to finish the fight if he can land a clean combination. But Cote has never been finished via KO or TKO and I don’t expect Cung Le to do what Anderson Silva couldn’t. Cote will more than likely also want to keep the fight standing. He is a more traditional striker but that doesn’t make him any less of a threat. The power in his right hand is more dangerous than any single strike Cung Le possesses. He comes into this fight on a four fight winning streak outside of the UFC and he will be looking to use Cung Le as a step toward once again competing at the top of the middleweight division.

The oddsmakers currently have Cote favored at -245 with Le the underdog at +205. I’m not surprised to see Cote favored but I am slightly surprised at the margin. That said, Cote is the more experienced and probably more dangerous fighter. His striking is good enough to neutralize Le’s unorthodox style and earn the victory either via (T)KO or decision. If Le wants to earn the upset, he will need to utilize movement and keep Cote guessing and moving backward. Either way, this should be an entertaining fight between two dangerous strikers.


Dong Hyun Kim vs. Demian Maia

In a matchup of upper level middleweights, Dong Hyun Kim will face Demian Maia as both men look to move up the ranks at 185 pounds. Kim has won six of his seven fights in the UFC excluding his fight with Karo Parisyan that was ruled a no contest after Parisyan tested positive for PEDs. Maia has struggled recently losing two of his last three fights in the UFC.

Maia has been a fixture in the UFC middleweight division for years having risen as far as a title fight with Anderson Silva. He was outclassed badly in that fight and has been up and down since then with wins over Mario Miranda, Kendall Grove and Jorge Santiago and losses to Mark Munoz and Chris Weidman. He seems to struggle when he faces the higher level of competition with his most impressive wins coming against Chael Sonnen and Dan Miller. He still possesses some of the most dangerous jiu-jitsu in the world at any weight class but his opponents have been able to neutralize that by refusing to play the ground game with him. His standup has improved over the last few years but is not at a level where he can win a striking match against a top level fighter. He will likely struggle to get Kim to the ground in this match and will need to take advantage of any opportunity he gets to grapple. More than likely, most of this fight will take place on the feet and that does not bode well for Maia. His grappling is by far the most dangerous weapon either fighter brings to the cage but unless Kim allows him to utilize it, Maia will likely be stuck in another striking match.

Dong Hyun Kim has only one official loss on his professional record and that came against Carlos Condit who is one of the best middleweights in the world. That said, Kim has yet to earn a signature victory with his biggest win coming against Amir Sadollah. Maia represents an excellent opportunity to earn a victory over a well respected middleweight and take a step up in the division. Kim was a knockout artist in Korea but that has not translated over to his UFC career as he has won all of his fights by decision. His striking is solid but not excellent and he has the defensive wrestling to keep the fight standing. He obviously has the power to finish with his strikes but has not been able to show it thus far in the the UFC. A finish against Maia would be a major statement but a decision is much more likely. He will need to keep the fight standing because even though he is competent on the ground, no one is safe against Damien Maia and he would be foolish to play that game. If he follows the appropriate gameplan and keeps the fight standing, he is capable of outstriking Maia to earn the victory.

Kim comes into the fight as the favorite at -145 with Maia the underdog at +125. The line is appropriate and this fight seems to have a clear script. Maia is always a threat if the fight goes to ground but I see no reason why Kim would allow that to happen. If the fight stays on the feet, Kim will have the advantage and he should be able to land more cleanly on his way to a decision victory.

UFC on FX 3 Post-FIght Analysis

Demetrious Johnson put an end to the controversy on Saturday night by clearly winning two of the three rounds in his rematch with Ian McCall to determine who will face Joseph Benavidez to become the.

Demetrious Johnson put an end to the controversy on Saturday night by clearly winning two of the three rounds in his rematch with Ian McCall to determine who will face Joseph Benavidez to become the first UFC flyweight champion. Johnson established the pace in the first round much in the same way he did in the first fight. Just like in the first fight, the most significant moment of the first round was a right hand. But this time, the punch dropped McCall instead of just wobbling him. Johnson also controlled the wrestling in the first round scoring an early takedown and stuffing all of McCall’s attempts to bring the fight to the mat. McCall came back strong in the second round managing to complete several takedowns. And although he was unable to keep Johnson down, just the threat of the takedown was enough to change the tone of the fight in the striking game and McCall was able to land more significant strikes. One of the judges awarded that round to Johnson for some reason but both of the other judges scored it for McCall, which was the proper scoring. Going into the third round, the fight was even but Johnson left no room for dispute as he clearly controlled the striking and scored the only takedown of the round. He landed several combinations and McCall became visibly frustrated as the round continued. By the end of the round, the outcome was obvious and Johnson clearly established himself as the fighter who deserves to compete against Benavidez for the title. The two battles between Johnson and McCall have set a high level of expectation for the title fight and if the five rounds between Benavidez and Johnson are anything like the six rounds between McCall and Johnson, the MMA community is certainly in for a treat. For McCall, this loss is a setback but he is still obviously one of the the best 125 pound fighters in the world and more than likely, he will get his chance to fight for the belt at some point.

Earlier in the night, Erick Silva made it clear that he has to be considered a factor in the welterweight division as he proved to be too big and too explosive for Charlie Brenneman. Silva landed a knee early as Brenneman shot in for a takedown. Brenneman realized immediately the type of power he was facing and from that point on, he was desperate to get the fight to the mat. He succeeded several times but was unable to keep Silva down and his efforts always seemed to be delaying the inevitable. Silva stayed patient and waited for the right opportunity to explode on Brenneman. After the referee restarted the fight out of a stalemate against the fence, Silva landed a spinning back kick to the gut and followed it with another body kick. The kicks hurt Brenneman and he attempted a sloppy shot that resulted in him being turtled with Silva on his back. Silva slipped in his hooks and locked his arm under Brenneman’s neck with little resistance and earned the submission victory via rear naked choke. Silva never landed cleanly to Brenneman’s head but just the glancing blows and kicks to the body were enough to break Brenneman’s will. Silva will definitely face a stiff step up in competition in his next appearance and he has earned it with three first round finishes in his UFC career thus far. The only part of his game that hasn’t been tested is his cardio and it would be interesting to see what would happen if a stronger fighter employed Brenneman’s strategy and was able to draw Silva deeper into the fight. For right now, Silva is a fighter with a high ceiling and with the depth in the UFC welterweight division, we’ll soon find out how high that ceiling is.

In the second fight on the main card, Mike Pyle earned the most surprising result of the night. The win itself wasn’t a surprise but you could have won some serious money betting that he would finish the exceptionally durable Josh Neer with a first round one punch knockout. Pyle opened the fight exactly the way one would expect by taking Neer to the mat and trying to control him on the ground. And Neer responded by doing exactly what he always does in that position staying active with his guard and cutting Pyle with an elbow from his back. Neer managed to stand up and got after Pyle with his classic attack style of body punches, dirty boxing and standing elbows. Pyle seemed to be significantly hurt to the body as Neer pushed him back against the cage and looked for an opportunity to finish. In the middle of that assault, Pyle landed a clinical overhand right directly the jaw of Neer and knocked him out. Neer fell face down on the mat and Pyle walked away with one of the more impressive victories of his career. Pyle, now age thirty six, has won five out of six fights and while he’ll never be a championship contender, the UFC should be able to find him several more interesting fights. Neer will need to win in his next fight or he may once again find himself on the way out of the UFC, which is unfortunate because his fights are always entertaining.

Eddie Wineland opened the card by announcing that he is back as a serious contender in the bantamweight division. The defensive wrestling he worked so hard to perfect for his fights against Urijah Faber and Joseph Benavidez is now fully incorporated into his arsenal and with that accomplished, he was able to let his strikes flow freely just as he did earlier in his career. He came out aggressive from the opening bell against Scott Jorgensen and didn’t slow down until he finished the fight. He dropped Jorgensen in the first round with a counter jab establishing that he still has some of the best power in the division. He repeatedly stuffed his opponent’s takedown attempts as well and kept the fight in a standing position. Jorgensen was more competitive in the second round landing several good strikes and cutting Wineland in two places including a huge gash over the left eye. Wineland seemed initially distracted by the blood flowing into his eye but quickly adjusted and began to once again take the advantage in the striking game. He even managed to take down the former PAC-10 wrestling champion. The fight seemed to be turning into a classic three round brawl where both fighters would trade combinations but Wineland’s power proved to be too much for Jorgensen as he dropped him with a right hand and pounced to finish with ground and pound. The 135 pound title is currently tied up in an interim fight between Faber and Renan Barao and the winner of that fight will likely immediately face champion Dominic Cruz to unify the title. Possible opponents for Wineland after this victory could include Brian Bowles, Michael McDonald or Barao if he loses to Faber. For Jorgensen, this outcome definitely represents another step back. One interesting matchup for him going forward would be with Miguel Torres as both would be trying to rebound from recent losses. Whatever happens, this was a huge statement by Eddie Wineland.