On paper, this Saturday’s TUF 17 Finale card is dominated by wide mismatches. But which fights will actually be blowouts, and which ones will end in profitable upsets? Check out the betting lines below (via bestfightodds.com) and let’s see if we can win some cash off this thing.
MAIN CARD (FX, 9 p.m. ET)
Urijah Faber (-435) vs. Scott Jorgensen (+375)
Uriah Hall (-309) vs. Kelvin Gastelum (+325)
Cat Zingano (-115) vs. Miesha Tate (+106)
Travis Browne (-250) vs. Gabriel Gonzaga (+240)
Robert McDaniel (-166) vs. Gilbert Smith (+155)
PRELIMINARY CARD (FUEL TV, 7 p.m. ET)
Josh Samman (-445) vs. Kevin Casey (+370)
Luke Barnatt (-124) vs. Collin Hart (+115)
Jimmy Quinlan (+100) vs. Dylan Andrews (+105)
Clint Hester (-160) vs. Bristol Marunde (+150)
PRELIMINARY CARD (Facebook, 5:30 p.m. ET)
Bart Palaszewski (-160) vs. Cole Miller (+155)
Daniel Pineda (-120) vs. Justin Lawrence (+109)
Maximo Blanco (-200) vs. Sam Sicilia (+195)
If you’re confused about what the numbers mean, read this. Otherwise, let’s proceed…
On paper, this Saturday’s TUF 17 Finale card is dominated by wide mismatches. But which fights will actually be blowouts, and which ones will end in profitable upsets? Check out the betting lines below (via bestfightodds.com) and let’s see if we can win some cash off this thing.
MAIN CARD (FX, 9 p.m. ET)
Urijah Faber (-435) vs. Scott Jorgensen (+375)
Uriah Hall (-309) vs. Kelvin Gastelum (+325)
Cat Zingano (-115) vs. Miesha Tate (+106)
Travis Browne (-250) vs. Gabriel Gonzaga (+240)
Robert McDaniel (-166) vs. Gilbert Smith (+155)
PRELIMINARY CARD (FUEL TV, 7 p.m. ET)
Josh Samman (-445) vs. Kevin Casey (+370)
Luke Barnatt (-124) vs. Collin Hart (+115)
Jimmy Quinlan (+100) vs. Dylan Andrews (+105)
Clint Hester (-160) vs. Bristol Marunde (+150)
PRELIMINARY CARD (Facebook, 5:30 p.m. ET)
Bart Palaszewski (-160) vs. Cole Miller (+155)
Daniel Pineda (-120) vs. Justin Lawrence (+109)
Maximo Blanco (-200) vs. Sam Sicilia (+195)
If you’re confused about what the numbers mean, read this. Otherwise, let’s proceed…
The Main Event: Without disrespecting the man too much, let’s just say that Scott Jorgensen is only in the main event because Urijah Faber needed somebody to fight. A win for Faber is the most likely scenario here…but man, are those odds bloated or what? Keep in mind that Faber has been relatively inconsistent since his WEC heyday, and has been alternating neatly between wins and losses during his UFC career. (Both Faber and Jorgensen are coming off of submission victories, by the way.) At -435, putting money on the California Kid is definitely not worth the risk. On the other hand, a small bet on Jorgensen (+375) might be. Consider it.
The Co-Main Event: I have to admit, the Uriah Hall hype train has swept me off my feet and I like it, baby. I think Hall is a lock against Kelvin Gastelum, and it’s not just because of his explosive power or flashy Tekken-kicks — it’s also his maturity, his confidence, and his experience edge. Of the five opponents on Gastelum’s professional record, only one had a winning record when they fought. Meanwhile, Hall has already been in the cage with UFC-level talents like Chris Weidman and Costa Philippou, and learned valuable lessons from those fights. Gastelum is an incredible raw talent, but he needs seasoning; Hall already has it. Betting on Uriah won’t be profitable, but it’s a fairly safe investment.
The Ladies: It’s somewhat surprising that Cat Zingano — who isn’t a familiar Strikeforce crossover — is a slight favorite over a known quantity like Miesha Tate. Zingano certainly looks the part, and Rose Namajunas told us that she’s a stud wrestler and rapidly improving striker, in addition to her BJJ base. But until Cat experiences her first fight on a big stage against a top talent like Tate, I wouldn’t suggest betting on her. Small money on Miesha is probably the way to go.
Another Good ‘Dog: If Cole Miller (+155) can bring the fight to the ground, Bart Palaszewski is in deep shit. That is all.
Proceed With Caution: Six months ago, Browne vs. Gonzaga would have been a no-brainer. Travis Browne was the nasty up-and-comer, and Gabriel Gonzaga was the irrelevant can-crusher. Then, Browne blew a hammy while firing some ridiculously unnecessary jumping front kicks against Bigfoot Silva, and Gonzaga went and choked out Ben Rothwell — his greatest UFC victory since his infamous head kick knockout of Mirko Cro Cop. So is Napao back? And will Browne keep it simple this time, for God’s sake? My gut tells me that Browne has this in the bag, but my mind tells me to skip it, just in case.
The Official CagePotato “Safe” Parlay: $5 on Faber+Hall+Tate+Barnatt returns a $22.77 profit on BetUS.
The Unofficial CagePotato “So Crazy It Just Might Work?” Parlay: $5 on Jorgensen+Gonzaga+Casey+Marunde+Miller+Sicilia returns a $5,431.40 profit.
I appreciate honesty in writing. I am also a tremendous hypocrite, which is why I often resort to trickery, tomfoolery, and outright fabrications when discussing this thing we call MMA with you Taters. I’m less a blogger, more a magician — a line that I would never suggest you use to pick up women with — and more often than not I resort to a near constant influx of red herrings and other intentional misdirects to even make it through a post. But amidst all the deceit and double-crosses, I do actually manage to squeeze in a few instances of genuine honesty with you readers, more often than not in the Gambling Addiction Enabler pieces I contribute when Dan “Get Off Me” George doesn’t feel up to it.
So when I turned to the introductory page of Jason Rothman’s Betting on MMA to find the statements located directly below, I was pretty much assured that I’d be getting exactly what I wanted out of his look into the world of MMA gambling.
This book is about making money from betting on the sport of mixed martial arts. And that is the only thing this book is about.
If you do not know what a triangle choke is, then this book is not for you.
And indeed, Rothman’s guide analyzing everything from money line odds to fighter attributes to the power of hype makes no attempt to wow you with its prose. The writing style, though sometimes cryptic and a bit repetitive, is simply a means to an end. That end is making you money, and although I have yet to put any of Rothman’s teachings into practice, I can assure you that Betting on MMA offers enough genuine insight and real-life examples to make it a must own for any MMA fan who fancies themselves a gambler.
I appreciate honesty in writing. I am also a tremendous hypocrite, which is why I often resort to trickery, tomfoolery, and outright fabrications when discussing this thing we call MMA with you Taters. I’m less a blogger, more a magician — a line that I would never suggest you use to pick up women with — and more often than not I resort to a near constant influx of red herrings and other intentional misdirects to even make it through a post. But amidst all the deceit and double-crosses, I do actually manage to squeeze in a few instances of genuine honesty with you readers, more often than not in the Gambling Addiction Enabler pieces I contribute when Dan “Get Off Me” George doesn’t feel up to it.
So when I turned to the introductory page of Jason Rothman’s Betting on MMA to find the statements located directly below, I was pretty much assured that I’d be getting exactly what I wanted out of his look into the world of MMA gambling.
This book is about making money from betting on the sport of mixed martial arts. And that is the only thing this book is about.
If you do not know what a triangle choke is, then this book is not for you.
And indeed, Rothman’s guide analyzing everything from money line odds to fighter attributes to the power of hype makes no attempt to wow you with its prose. The writing style, though sometimes cryptic and a bit repetitive, is simply a means to an end. That end is making you money, and although I have yet to put any of Rothman’s teachings into practice, I can assure you that Betting on MMA offers enough genuine insight and real-life examples to make it a must own for any MMA fan who fancies themselves a gambler.
It isn’t often that a book cover can serve as a manifest for the book itself, but Rothman (or perhaps his pubisher) has succeeded in that right as well. The cover (pictured above) features Phil Baroni in a classic fist-pose with Warren Buffet, which although clearly photoshopped, more or less dictates the two themes that will be prevalent throughout the book: Brutal honesty and business savvy.
The book itself is divided into three segments: “The Fundamentals,” “MMA Speculating,” and two appendices providing the aforementioned real-life examples of Rothman’s theories being put into practice. Using the principles of “value investing” as laid out by multibillionaire Warren Buffet, Rothman does a great job of convincing his audience that wagering on an MMA match is much easier than it looks.
“The Fundamentals” places most of its emphasis on a mathematical process of analyzing a given fighter’s chances based on their betting lines, which Rothman dubs “Handicapping Fights.” Without giving too much away, Rothman lays out a simple method of comparing/measuring both the current odds of a given fighter against the approximate chances of victory you give said fighter to determine whether or not there is a large enough “margin of safety” to place a bet. Coming from someone who usually relied on only the latter to determine his fight picks, this section is an ingenious bit of information that will surely affect my gambling methods going forward.
Part two of Betting on MMA focuses on some of the extraneous factors that surround a given fighter in the weeks/months before a fight (hype, for instance) but also takes a look at the more discernible determinants that could alter a bet. A fighters paths to victory (a.k.a how they can win the fight), his/her age, injury rumors — these are all details that MMA gambling fans should keep a look out for before placing their bets. But Rothman goes even further than that, placing an additional emphasis on staying away from fighters who “look soft” come weigh-in time. Although he uses a perfect example in Cain Velasquez vs. Junior dos Santos 1 (Cain was coming off multiple debilitating injuries), two more recent examples that strike me are Mark Munoz in his fight with Chris Weidman and Patrick Cote against Alessio Sakara last weekend. Say what you want about the ending of the latter, but in both cases, two guys showed up looking heavier around the waist than normal and paid dearly for it. Rothman also details several other fight-alternating factors, such as a given fighters “chin” and how losing a title fight can affect a fighter’s performance in the long run.
The third section of Rothman’s book provides a couple examples of low risk, big reward bets he calls “Big Game Hunting” and displays two real-life “case studies” in which Rothman puts his teachings into practice. Again, in order to see just what fights he bet on and using what logic, you’ll have to pick the book up for yourself, but suffice it to say, Rothman was spot on in both cases and the information is presented as such.
That is not to say that Rothman doesn’t paint with too broad a brush at times. For instance, when analyzing the third fight between B.J. Penn and Matt Hughes at UFC 123 using his “Paths to Victory” assessment, Rothman claims that Hughes had no method through which he could win the fight and therefore wouldn’t justify a bet, despite the fact that Hughes had managed to both exploit Penn’s lack of cardio at 170 and his own size advantage when he defeated Penn in the pair’s second showing at UFC 63. Granted, I would have never bet on Hughes in that fight and Rothman was ultimately correct in his analysis, but to claim that Hughes had no way of winning seems a little presumptuous. It is a small complaint that is purely subjective, and truly one of the only ones I could find while reviewing the book. Other than the somewhat odd spacing of words and sentences at times, which I will chalk up as a mistake on the publisher’s part.
At 100 pages on the nose, Betting on MMA is succinct enough to read through in an hour or two, yet thorough enough to provide a lifetime’s worth of knowledge when it comes to gambling on MMA. You can purchase a paperback version of Betting on MMA here, a Kindle version here, or check out Rothman’s official site for all your gambling needs here.
(Don’t worry, we put more effort into this piece than the UFC marketing department did into that poster.)
Rumor has it that on Saturday night, two certain somebodies may or may not partake in a certain fight that you may or may not be able to place a certain wager on, which may or may not be dependent on whether you think or don’t think you know a certain outcome of the fight itself, capiche? In either case, we are going to offer some advice that may or may not help you arrive at that determination. Check out what could hypothetically be the betting lines for UFC 145, courtesy of BestFightOdds, below, and follow us after the jump for what may or may not be our advice on where to place a certain bet that may or may not exist.
(Don’t worry, we put more effort into this piece than the UFC marketing department did into that poster.)
Rumor has it that on Saturday night, two certain somebodies may or may not partake in a certain fight that you may or may not be able to place a certain wager on, which may or may not be dependent on whether you think or don’t think you know a certain outcome of the fight itself, capiche? In either case, we are going to offer some advice that may or may not help you arrive at that determination. Check out what could hypothetically be the betting lines for UFC 145, courtesy of BestFightOdds, below, and join us afterward for what may or may not be our advice on where to place a certain bet that may or may not exist.
The Main Event: Listen, we all know that Jon Jones will likely beat Rashad Evans; he is younger, more athletic, and has absolutely crushed everyone in his path, including the man who nearly turned Evans into a member of the walking dead. But whenever a former champ who is arguably still in his prime is listed as that big of an underdog, especially one with as much power and experience as Evans, you’d be a fool not to place a bet on him. Save Jones for the parlay, and place a decent side wager on Evans; it’s as simple as that.
The Good Dogs: The Michael Mcdonald/Miguel Torres odds are really too close to waste your time on, and we hate to count Che Mills out, but given Rory MacDonald‘s run thus far in the UFC, we’d say he’s pretty close to mincemeat in this one. That brings us to Rothwell/Schaub. Here’s what we know:
1. Ben Rothwell CAN knock a motherfucker out, even if we haven’t see him do so in quite some time.
2. Brendan Schaub is very susceptible to the KO
Now, you might call us crazy to even consider betting on “Big Ben” given his run as of late, and you have every right to. If this fight goes past the first round, Schaub will more than likely take it, but if Rothwell presses the action early, you could be looking at an easy score. Let the public backlash begin.
The other dogs worth your consideration are Matt Brown, Efrain Escudero, and Chad Griggs. Brown’s got the experience edge (UFC-wise, at least) over Thompson, who’s only opponent in UFC competition was basically a sheep being led to the slaughter. Mac Danzig has been a mixed bag ever since winning the TUF 6 plaque, and if Escudero chooses to mix up his strikes with a few takedowns, he could very easily coast his way to a UD victory. Next to Evans, Escudero is your best bet as far as underdog picks go. As for Griggs…well, the dude throws some serious heat, and can take it just as well as he can dish it out. He’s facing a tough test in Browne, but if you’re feeling lucky, a small bet on him wouldn’t be too foolish.
Stay the Hell Away From: Maximo Blanco. It’s odd enough that the UFC signed him following a loss (who does he think he is, Phil Baroni?), and we’re not going to risk him ruining our parlay until he gets at least one UFC bout under his belt. Also, John Alessio. His line may look tempting at +325 considering his experience, but the dude has a track record of buckling under the bright lights. The fact that he’s stepping in as a late replacement against someone whose strengths play right into his weaknesses should be further proof to just steer clear of him.
Official CagePotato Parlay: Jones + Bocek + Clements + Njokuani
Suggested wager for a $50 wager
-$20 on the parlay
-$10 on Evans
-$10 on Escudero
-$5 on Rothwell
-$5 on Brown
Want to make some real money this weekend? Then come over to my place on Saturday afternoon and be prepared to clean some toilets. Want to make some hypothetical, for-entertainment-purposes-only money this weekend? Then check out the latest UFC 136 betting lines (via BestFightOdds) and read our gambling advice after the jump.
PPV Main Card
Frankie Edgar (-125) vs. Gray Maynard (+120)
Jose Aldo (-320) vs. Kenny Florian (+301)
Chael Sonnen (-255) vs. Brian Stann (+227)
Nam Phan (-210) vs. Leonard Garcia (+208)
Melvin Guillard (-312) vs. Joe Lauzon (+310)
Spike TV Prelims
Demian Maia (-275) vs. Jorge Santiago (+245)
Anthony Pettis (-277) vs. Jeremy Stephens (+250)
Facebook Prelims
Joey Beltran (+190) vs. Stipe Miocic (-210)
Tiequan Zhang (-120) vs. Darren Elkins (+115)
Aaron Simpson (-313) vs. Eric Schafer (+300)
Steve Cantwell (-135) vs. Mike Massenzio (+130)
Want to make some real money this weekend? Then come over to my place on Saturday afternoon and be prepared to clean some toilets. Want to make some hypothetical, for-entertainment-purposes-only money this weekend? Then check out the latest UFC 136 betting lines (via BestFightOdds) and read our gambling advice after the jump.
PPV Main Card
Frankie Edgar (-125) vs. Gray Maynard (+120)
Jose Aldo (-320) vs. Kenny Florian (+301)
Chael Sonnen (-255) vs. Brian Stann (+227)
Nam Phan (-210) vs. Leonard Garcia (+208)
Melvin Guillard (-312) vs. Joe Lauzon (+310)
Spike TV Prelims
Demian Maia (-275) vs. Jorge Santiago (+245)
Anthony Pettis (-277) vs. Jeremy Stephens (+250)
Facebook Prelims
Joey Beltran (+190) vs. Stipe Miocic (-210)
Tiequan Zhang (-120) vs. Darren Elkins (+115)
Aaron Simpson (-313) vs. Eric Schafer (+300)
Steve Cantwell (-135) vs. Mike Massenzio (+130)
We’ll begin…at the beginning:
The Main Event: It’s a line that should really be dead even. But if somebody’s going to be a favorite here, should it really be Frankie Edgar? After all, he couldn’t beat Gray Maynard in either of their two previous meetings. As a slight underdog, Maynard is worth a small investment.
The Other Good ‘Dogs: A lot of them look good, actually. Chael Sonnen is coming off 14 months of controversy and inactivity, so his -255 feels a little inflated, especially against someone as focused and dangerous as Brian Stann. We all know that Leonard Garcia is bulletproof with judges, so if he can swing and grunt his way to the last bell — and not get finished by Phan — he could always end up stealing another one and doubling your money. And if Demian Maia insists on pretending he’s a striker, he’s asking to get laid out by Jorge Santiago.
The Smart Straight-Bet: Blowouts are the name of the game this weekend, with eight of the 11 matchups sitting at 2-to-1 odds or greater. You won’t get rich betting on the stiff favorites, so take a look at Tiequan Zhang at a modest -120 over Darren Elkins. Both guys are just 1-0 at featherweight, but Zhang’s aggressive grappling attack will give the American a heap of problems.
Stay Away From: Joe Lauzon. Yeah, yeah, everybody loves J-Lau, and his skill set is the perfect one to give Guillard trouble. At +310, why not put money on the grappler’s chance, right? Answer: Because Melvin is far too powerful, and he’s a little savvier about avoiding submissions these days. Guillard’s got this one, probably by KO. The same warning applies for Kenny Florian — tripling your cash on the seasoned challenger might be seductive, but you’ll likely be pissing that money away.
Official CagePotato Parlay: Aldo + Guillard + Pettis + Zhang. $20 returns a $57.18 profit. Not risky enough? Okay, $1,000 returns a $2,858 profit. Now we’re talkin’.
Full betting lines for this Sunday’s UFC Live: Hardy vs. Lytle event have been released, which means it’s time to steal some money from your old lady’s purse and tell her you’re going for a walk. And if you follow our gambling advice very carefully, you’ll be able to return the cash before she notices and earn some extra cigarette-money in the process. (Ed. note: You’ll probably lose everything like usual. Are things ever going to change with you, Jim?) Check out the juiciest lines, via bestfightodds.com:
Main Card (Versus, 9 p.m. ET / 6 p.m. PT)
Chris Lytle (-107) vs. Dan Hardy (even)
Jim Miller (-145) vs. Ben Henderson (+145)
Charles Oliveira (-130) vs. Donald Cerrone (+130)
Amir Sadollah (-310) vs. Duane Ludwig (+273)
Preliminary Card (Facebook.com, 5:45 p.m. ET / 2:45 p.m. PT)
C.B. Dollaway (-250) vs. Jared Hamman (+222)
Joseph Benavidez (-231) vs. Eddie Wineland (+225)
Kyle Noke (-144) vs. Ed Herman (+145)
Karlos Vemola (-210) vs. Ronny Markes (+201)
Jimy Hettes (-350) vs. Alex Caceres (+313)
Cole Miller (-387) vs. T.J. O’Brien (+335)
Danny Castillo (-118) vs. Jacob Volkmann (+107)
Edwin Figueroa (-300) vs. Jason Reinhardt (+288)
Let’s get that money…
Full betting lines for this Sunday’s UFC Live: Hardy vs. Lytle event have been released, which means it’s time to steal some money from your old lady’s purse and tell her you’re going for a walk. And if you follow our gambling advice very carefully, you’ll be able to return the cash before she notices and earn some extra cigarette-money in the process. (Ed. note: You’ll probably lose everything like usual. Are things ever going to change with you, Jim?) Check out the juiciest lines, via bestfightodds.com:
Main Card (Versus, 9 p.m. ET / 6 p.m. PT)
Chris Lytle (-107) vs. Dan Hardy (even)
Jim Miller (-145) vs. Ben Henderson (+145)
Charles Oliveira (-130) vs. Donald Cerrone (+130)
Amir Sadollah (-310) vs. Duane Ludwig (+273)
Preliminary Card (Facebook.com, 5:45 p.m. ET / 2:45 p.m. PT)
C.B. Dollaway (-250) vs. Jared Hamman (+222)
Joseph Benavidez (-231) vs. Eddie Wineland (+225)
Kyle Noke (-144) vs. Ed Herman (+145)
Karlos Vemola (-210) vs. Ronny Markes (+201)
Jimy Hettes (-350) vs. Alex Caceres (+313)
Cole Miller (-387) vs. T.J. O’Brien (+335)
Danny Castillo (-118) vs. Jacob Volkmann (+107)
Edwin Figueroa (-300) vs. Jason Reinhardt (+288)
Let’s get that money…
The Main Event: Chris Lytle definitely deserves to be a slight favorite here; he’s dangerous from more positions than Dan Hardy, and supernaturally impervious to knockouts and submissions. I think the line would be wider if Lytle wasn’t coming off a lackluster performance against Brian Ebersole in February, but as we all know, the dude was nursing injuries and shouldn’t have taken the fight in the first place. Dan Hardy allegedly holds the striking advantage — but I’m not entirely convinced of that either. Straight money on Lights Out is a wise choice.
The Co-Main: There’s part of me that thinks Jim Miller is being disrespected (as usual) by only being a -145 favorite against Bendo. Henderson is incredibly talented and capable of brilliant performances, but this is Miller’s time. His last two stoppage wins against Charles Oliveira and Kamal Shalorus have demonstrated that his skills are developing with every fight. I see the Jersey Boy taking this one by decision and hitting lucky #8. Miller’s a safe bet.
The Good ‘Dog: I expected the Oliveira vs. Cerrone line to be closer to even. The rangy, experienced, well-rounded Cowboy is a legitimate test for the young Brazilian phenom, and his +130 line is attractive.
The New Guys: Never heard of Jimy Hettes, huh? Well after Sunday night, you’ll know him as “the guy who just knocked Bruce Leroy out of the UFC.” Hettes is a grappling savant who has tapped all eight of his opponents in regional east coast promotions. Despite his TUF 12 credentials, Caceres isn’t really a step up in competition; please don’t bet on him just because you’ve heard of him. As for the card’s other late-replacement newbie, Ronny Markes is a 23-year-old Brazilian prospect who scored a decision win over Paulo Filho in April — not that beating Paulo Filho means much anymore. Vemola is the favorite here because he kicked the dogshit out of Seth Petruzelli in his last fight, while Markes is something of an unknown quantity. My gut is telling me to stay away from this one altogether.
Official CagePotato Parlay: Lytle + Miller + Benavidez + Hettes + Figueroa. $20 returns $131.05 profit.