UFC 148 MMAFix Staff Picks: Part II

Dong Hyun Kim (-155) vs. Demien Maia (+135) Ryan Poli: Despite a poor performance in his last fight, I’m picking Demian Maia to win. Stun Gun is at his best on the ground, which I.

Dong Hyun Kim (-155) vs. Demien Maia (+135)
Ryan Poli: Despite a poor performance in his last fight, I’m picking Demian Maia to win. Stun Gun is at his best on the ground, which I feel plays right in to Maia’s hand. Plus as long as Maia can showcase his improved stand up (like he did against Mark Munoz), he will also have the advantage on the feet. I disagree with the odds. It may be because of his last fight, but I still disagree. Winner: Maia

John Rivera: This fight can go one of two ways: Kim, uses a moderate kickboxing advantage and solid judo skills to keep the fight upright for a unanimous decision victory…. OR…Demian Maia submits the motherf*cker with his insane jiu-jitsu skills inside of round one. Even though I want the badass Brazilian to win via flying omaplata to reverse spinning heel hook, I got Kim with the decision this time. Winner: Kim

Alan Wells: I expect DHK to take a decision victory here. This will probably be another mediocre striking match right in line with Maia’s recent fights and Kim has the slight advantage in the striking. At -155, this is the first fight that feels worth a bet. Winner: Kim

MMAFix Staff Pick: Kim (2-1)

Chad Mendes (-640) vs. Cody McKenzie (+470)
Ryan Poli: Chad Mendes is too strong and too skilled for McKenzie. His only chance to win is with his signature guillotine choke which Mendes can easily avoid. Winner: Mendes

John Rivera: I got Chad Mendes via boring decision victory. Mendes is a good enough wrestler to keep McKenzie on his back for most of the fight but the latter is good enough on the ground to avoid any submissions from the Team Alpha Male product. As sick as he is with the guillotine (Dude has 12 submission victories all by guillotine) I don’t see McKenzie tapping out the NCAA All-American Wrestler. Winner: Mendes

Alan Wells: This fight is a joke. The only reason to bet here is to either take a flyer on McKenzie because of the ridiculous odds or to use Mendes as a parlay to get better odds on either Silva or Griffin. Parlaying is normally a sucker bet but I really can’t imagine Mendes losing this fight. Winner: Mendes

MMAFix Staff Pick: Mendes (3-0)

Ivan Menjivar (+105) vs. Mike Easton (-125)
Ryan Poli: I think Menjivar is overrated. He is extremely talented, but his last few fights have been against lower ranked competition that gave him a great deal of trouble and put him in some bad positions where I feel if Mike Easton had the same position, he would be able to put Menjivar away. Mike Easton brings it every fight and will get the TKO over Menjivar. Winner: Easton

John Rivera: We are in for a treat. First of all Menjivar fought GSP when he debuted at 170lbs—the guy is a monster, especially when you consider this fight is at bantamweight. Second, Mike Easton is a Lloyd Irvin black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu who PREFERS to fight standing up. I have no idea what is going to happen. Mike Easton is on a tear, killing guys left and right with very dangerous muay thai, but this is definitely a step up in competition. The UFC is testing Easton with this matchup. They want to see if he can make the leap from rising prospect to legitimate contender. A fourth victory against a high profile fighter such as Menjivar could sign Easton’s ticket to the title show. I think he will rise to the occasion for a very close split decision victory. Winner: Easton

Alan Wells: This is the closest fight of the night. It started as a pick ‘em but the line has now moved slightly in favor of Easton. I consider this a stay away for betting purposes because it’s too close. But if I have to pick a winner, I’m going with Easton. I’d love to pick Menjivar because I’ve been a fan of his game for a long time but I think Easton will be a bit too strong for him. Winner: Easton

MMAFix Staff Pick: Easton (3-0)

Who You Should Bet On at Bellator 61


(Two words: Stanky toe.) 

We’re in the midst of the longest MMA drought of the year, Potato Nation. With only one UFC and one Strikeforce event scheduled in the next month, the gambling addicts within the CP staff are damn near starving to death. Seriously, we’ve been forced to start taking bets on things like: how long Karma can grow his fingernails before he scratches someone’s eyes out, the IQ of BG’s child (currently), and which cockroach in Danga’s apartment will finally die of lead poisoning.

Perhaps it’s a sign of how far the sport has come in the past few years that we expect a card every couple weeks; pehaps it is just a sign of our greed. In either case, Bellator has stepped up to fill the void left behind by all the major organizations, and thankfully so. With three events planned in the next two weeks, it presents a perfect opportunity to get some bad picks and ridiculous parlays out of your system before it really costs you.

Despite the main event being cancelled at the last second, tonight’s Bellator 61 card still presents some intriguing match-ups and more than a couple ways to come out with a more padded wallet to spend on tomorrows festivities, ie. green colored beer and an end of the night stomach pumping. But let’s get one thing straight, this is not your mamma’s Gambling Addiction Enabler, this is a sort of similar yet entirely different monster. CagePotato can not be held accountable for the following betting advice, so read at your own risk.

First, let’s take a look at the card…


(Two words: Stanky toe.) 

We’re in the midst of the longest MMA drought of the year, Potato Nation. With only one UFC and one Strikeforce event scheduled in the next month, the gambling addicts within the CP staff are damn near starving to death. Seriously, we’ve been forced to start taking bets on things like: how long Karma can grow his fingernails before he scratches someone’s eyes out, the IQ of BG’s child (currently), and which cockroach in Danga’s apartment will finally die of lead poisoning.

Perhaps it’s a sign of how far the sport has come in the past few years that we expect a card every couple weeks; pehaps it is just a sign of our greed. In either case, Bellator has stepped up to fill the void left behind by all the major organizations, and thankfully so. With three events planned in the next two weeks, it presents a perfect opportunity to get some bad picks and ridiculous parlays out of your system before it really costs you.

Despite the main event being cancelled at the last second, tonight’s Bellator 61 card still presents some intriguing match-ups and more than a couple ways to come out with a more padded wallet to spend on tomorrows festivities, ie. green colored beer and an end of the night stomach pumping. But let’s get one thing straight, this is not your mamma’s Gambling Addiction Enabler, this is a sort of similar yet entirely different monster. CagePotato can not be held accountable for the following betting advice, so read at your own risk.

First, let’s take a look at the card…

Main Card
Maiquel Falcao vs. Norman Paraisy
Vitor Vianna vs. Brian Rogers
Vyacheslav Vasilevsky vs. Victor O’Donnell
Giva Santana vs. Bruno Santos

Preliminary Card 
Brent Taylor vs. Josh Quayhagen
Trey Houston vs. Jeremiah Riggs
Derrick Krantz vs. Eric Scallan
Jeremy Myers vs. Jason Sampson

The preliminary card currently has no betting lines available, so we’ll focus on just the middleweight quarterfinals for the time being.

Let’s start with Falcao vs. Paraisy. Despite suffering a heart attack back in November, Falcao is currently listed at -330 over at BestFightOdds.com, a line that is a little inflated to say the least. Falcao is a walking paradox, a man who likes to end his fights early yet can’t seem to stop punching once he has started, regardless of what the ref or timekeeper says. He is so used to the first round, in fact, that in his only appearance in the UFC (against Gerald Harris at UFC 123), it appeared as if he forgot how to fight once he reached the third round. Paraisy, on the other hand, is likely getting such a bad billing because his last Bellator performance (Bellator 3-4 in 2009) resulted in a third round submission loss to Dave Menne. Since then, however, he’s reeled off five wins and a draw, including wins over Paulo Filho and Jack Mason. He’s also never been knocked out. Though that means nothing against a guy like Falcao in the early going, Paraisy’s superior cardio and strong wrestling base could prove to pay dividends in the latter rounds. Our advice, put Falcao in your parlay, and place a small side bet of maybe twenty or thirty dollars on Paraisy, depending on what your cash situation is.

The Rogers/Vianna and Santos/Santana fights aren’t worth betting on alone, but as far as adding to your parlay’s goes, the smart money is on Vianna (-125) and Santana (-115). Rogers has some power in his hands, but the same goes for Vianna, who also adds a ridiculous list of grappling credentials to his credit including 2 world BJJ Championships, 6 Brazilian national champions, and an ADCC NO GI trials runner up spot. He will dictate where this fight takes place, and should be good pick over Rogers. That being said, four once gloves can put anyone to sleep, so a small bet on Rogers wouldn’t hurt.

As we all know, Giva Santana is one of the greatest one trick ponies the sport has ever seen, collecting 13 arm bar wins in just 18 fights. Santos, however, has only finished two opponents in twelve fights, and despite being undefeated, should be listed as more of a dog here. He’s a grinder with severely limited striking skills who lacks the kind of speed of aggression that could put Giva in any sort of trouble. He’ll be looking to hold “The Arm Collector” down, a notion that will prove deadly when faced with Santana’s explosive guard. Santana is a lock, so don’t hesitate to throw him in your parlay as well.

That takes us to our last main card fight, Vitor O’Donnell (+235) vs. Vyacheslav Vasilevsky (-255). O’Donnell is primarily a grappler, scoring nine of his 11 wins by way of submission. He is also coming off a knockout loss to Brian Rogers at Bellator 50. Yes, many said the fight was stopped short, which I’m not really going to comment on; a KO loss is a KO loss. Rogers, though a beast in his own right, is nowhere near as well rounded Vasilevsky is. A two time world Sambo champion, former judo champion, and 2010 M-1 Global Light Heavyweight champion, Vasilevsky has been waiting sixteen fights for his coming out party, compiling a 15-1 record in that time, and should steamroll O’Donnell, barring any last second jitters. He is well versed in submissions and too good on the feet, so look for a quick and violent finish to this one.

So to sum up, place 50 to 75 dollars on a Falcao-Vianna-Santana-Vasilevsky parlay, which will net you $391.32 on the high end. That is a steal considering you are betting on all favorites. And if you’re feeling up to it, place a small side bet of 20 to 30 dollars on Paraisy-Rogers parlay, which could still double your total investment if your parlay goes to shit.

-J. Jones 

UFC 129 Betting Odds (VIDEO)

We’re with our UFC 129 Betting Odds (*courtesy of RawVegas.tv) featuring our expert panelists Damon Martin of MMAWeekly.com and Larry Pepe from ProMMARadio.com.
The two MMA authorities break down the top 3 fights on the card with our host, Steve Cofield. The video below features the Main Event breakdown between Georges St. Pierre and Jake Shields. Martin […]

We’re with our UFC 129 Betting Odds (*courtesy of RawVegas.tv) featuring our expert panelists Damon Martin of MMAWeekly.com and Larry Pepe from ProMMARadio.com.

The two MMA authorities break down the top 3 fights on the card with our host, Steve Cofield. The video below features the Main Event breakdown between Georges St. Pierre and Jake Shields. Martin and Pepe do not agree on who will take the victory in this bout. Check out the video below.

Watch UFC 129 St-Pierre Vs. Shields Betting Odds: Georges St-Pierre Vs. Jake Shields on RawVegas.tv
To get your best bets on Jose Aldo vs. Mark Hominick, watch below:

Watch UFC 129 St-Pierre Vs. Shields Betting Odds: Jose Aldo Vs. Mark Hominick on RawVegas.tv
For Randy Couture vs. Lyoto Machida, watch below:

Watch UFC 129 St-Pierre Vs. Shields Betting Odds: Randy Cuture Vs. Lyoto Machida on RawVegas.tv

To place your bets for  UFC 129, click onto the icons for your favorite online sportsbooks to the right of our page!

UFC 129 Breeds Big Underdogs

The gaming sites seem to be very clear on who the likely winners will be in the UFC 129 Main Card. Lines show Jake Shields as a +325 underdog to Georges St. Pierre at -500. But GSP as the huge favorite has become predictable anytime GSP faces a new opponent. (*Note, you can find GSP […]

UFC129_590

The gaming sites seem to be very clear on who the likely winners will be in the UFC 129 Main Card. Lines show Jake Shields as a +325 underdog to Georges St. Pierre at -500. But GSP as the huge favorite has become predictable anytime GSP faces a new opponent. (*Note, you can find GSP at -425, if you’re itching to bet on him) Yet, if you think Shields has a real chance as many believe he does with his brand of ground game then finally GSP may be worth betting against.

The quick and technically masterful title-contender, Mark Hominick is also a large underdog in his hometown against Featherweight Champion, Jose Aldo. Hominick is shown to be a +350 to Aldo’s -500. Hominick has the homecourt advantage and is a kickboxer that will give Aldo difficulty. A huge payoff here if Hominick can take the title.

Lastly, we cannot look past our favorite legend, the man who says this is his last show, Randy Couture, coming in as a +280 dog to Lyoto Machida’s -350. Just knowing Couture at 47 is in peak physical condition, has demonstrated an assured attitude and is a man who has nothing to lose with all his weapons fully loaded, we say we gotta lay the dog money on him. If there’s a man to believe in, it’s Couture.

Look for our UFC 129 Betting Odds video with our panel of expert analysts coming soon! You can place all of your UFC 129 bets by clicking the icons for your favorite online sportsbooks to the right of our page!

Um… Keith Jardine at +400? Nah, I Still Can’t Take that Bet. Strikeforce: Diaz Vs Daley Best Bets!

While Keith Jardine may not be your best value bet since he absolutely highly likely won’t beat Gegard Mousasi, who in some books is a (-600) favorite, we do like the odds for Tatsuya Kawajiri at (+205) against Gilbert Melendez. Record-wise, they’re a pretty even match up but Kawajiri’s got the pride of taking home […]

keith-jardine-with-the-honeys

While Keith Jardine may not be your best value bet since he absolutely highly likely won’t beat Gegard Mousasi, who in some books is a (-600) favorite, we do like the odds for Tatsuya Kawajiri at (+205) against Gilbert Melendez. Record-wise, they’re a pretty even match up but Kawajiri’s got the pride of taking home a win to Japan that may bolster his performance for the victory and Lightweight belt.

Besides Kawajiri, we’re going with the favorites on this card. There’s no way we can bet against Nick Diaz and will gladly take him at (-220). Paul Daley would have to KO Diaz to finish him and we don’t see that happening and decisions usually go in the Champion’s favor but we see Diaz using his Southpaw to end this fight early.

We’ll also take Gegard Mousasi at the best value for him right now which is at (-400). To place your Strikeforce: Diaz Vs. Daley bets, click on the icons to the online sportsbook in our Odds Side Bar to the right of our page!

Randy Couture is Your UFC 129 Best Bet

There is a ton of line movement for Randy Couture vs. Lyoto Machida as some online sportsbooks have decided to jump Machida from a -300 favorite to a (-500) favorite. I don’t know what the books are thinking here, but we recall that this same thing happened a few weeks before George Sotiropoulos fought Denis […]

couture-machida

There is a ton of line movement for Randy Couture vs. Lyoto Machida as some online sportsbooks have decided to jump Machida from a -300 favorite to a (500) favorite. I don’t know what the books are thinking here, but we recall that this same thing happened a few weeks before George Sotiropoulos fought Denis Siver and that turned out to be a big pay off for Siver believers who opted to go with him as a +300 underdog. Now the books have Couture at as much as a (+300) underdog and that’s a value you can’t beat. Couture has won his last 3 plus he’s got the confidence coming into this one. Machida lost his belt to Mauricio “Shogun” Rua after a rematch occurred when everyone else disagreed with the judges. Then he lost a split decision to Quinton “Rampage” Jackson. Couture is hard to beat off the ground, if Machida can get him there and Couture has displayed way better boxing skills. Going up against the karate master will be a new experience for Couture but he’s worth the dog value bet.

Another fight to keep an eye on is Jose Aldo vs. Mark Hominick for Aldo’s Featherweight title. Hominick’s value as an underdog is decreasing as the lines have moved down to about (+275) from a previous +300 at some books. This is Hominicks’ home town fight and he always brings a solid technical game. He will be hard to knock out and has proven time and time again, he can submit his opponent. Hominick is likely to score points by precisely landing shots. If you believe that Hominick has the home court advantage, place your bets NOW as the lines continue to move and you can lose the bigger value!

To place your UFC 129 bets, click on the icon to your favorite online sportsbook in the Odds Side Bar of our page.