Tag: MMA Picks

Dustin Poirier   vs.  Jonathan Brookins

It would be a mistake for Brookins to keep this fight standing. He may not have a definitive advantage on the ground, but it will level out the playing field just enough for him to have a chance of emerging as the victor. Both Poirier and Brookins are purple belts in jiu-jitsu, but the striking of Poirier is far superior to that of Brookins. The only way I see Brookins winning is by submitting Poirier, which isn’t too likely, but still possible. I don’t see Brookins getting Poirier down to even make the fight more evenly matched, it’s more likely that Poirier will avoid any takedown attempt and pick Brookins apart on the feet, eventually earning himself a TKO victory.

Melvin Guillard   vs.  Jamie Varner

It’ll be interesting to see how Guillard performs after being knocked out by the “Cowboy” at UFC 150. Prior to that fight, Guillard had never been knocked out, so this could potentially throw him off his mental game. Even though Guillard has come back from less than adequate performances to finish tough opponents, such as, Dennis Siver, Evan Dunham, and Shane Roller; having a strong performance after his first knockout loss will be his biggest challenge to date. Guillard’s strong points are obviously his striking and aggression, but Varner has excellent boxing that he mixes with his wrestling, which he used to get the better of Ben Henderson and Joe Lauzon until Varner succumbed to a submission in both fights. Because the word jiu-jitsu probably isn’t even in Guillard’s vocabulary. Varner to take Guillard down at will and hold him there without any fear of being submitted. After seeing Varner destroy Edson Barboza, I wouldn’t be surprised if he was able to finish Guillard, but it’s more likely Varner out wrestles Guillard for all three rounds.

Pat Barry   vs.  Shane del Rosario

Both of these fighters are outstanding kick boxers, but when it comes to actual credentials, del Rosario takes the cake. Even if their striking skills are dead even, del Rosario will have the advantage just based on the reach advantage he possess. Chances are that this fight will be a stand up war, but if the fight does go to the ground, del Rosario has a more advanced jiu-jitsu game than Barry. The common opponent they share is Lavar Johnson, where Barry fell victim to his knockout power, but del Rosario submitted him by armbar in the first round. Del Rosario’s second fight back since his layoff should be substantially better than his first, and he should be successful in out striking Barry to get a unanimous decision win.

Mike Ricci   vs.  Colton Smith

Smith is good with his wrestling, but that’s about all he has in his arsenal. Eddy Ellis was gave Smith much trouble while on the feet and was close to knocking him out, but Smith was able to get the fight to the ground and take control. Ricci has better technical striking than Ellis, and far better ground skills, including superior takedown defense. Ricci will stick to a simple game plan as he avoids the take down attempts and pick Smith apart with his striking. Smith tends to fade as the fight goes on, so Ricci should get the knockout victory in the third round.

Roy Nelson   vs.  Matt Mitrione

Mitrione is fairly well rounded, but Nelson has too many advantages to not walk away the victor. The striking between the two will be closely contested, but Nelson has the one punch knockout power that Mitrione has only showcased against lower level competition. Mitrione has been improving in his grappling, but Nelson will have a significant advantage in the ground game. No matter where this fight takes place, Nelson will have the advantage and achieve victory be knockout, submission or decision.

 

Written by: Ryan “Fight Freek” Poli
@FightFreek

 

Reuben Duran   vs.  Hugo Viana

Viana only has six professional MMA fights, and every one of them has gone to a decision. He has yet to finish any of his opponents, and for that reason, it doesn’t seem very likely that he will finish Duran. On the other hand, Duran has finished seven of his eight fights, with three coming by knockout, and four by submission. If the fight doesn’t see the final bell, it should be Duran who gets his hand raised. Duran lost a close split decision to elite bantamweight, Takeya Mizugaki, and then submitted Francisco Rivera just two months later. Most of his wins come in the first round, so I’m not to concerned with any potential conditioning issues after being absent for eighteen months. Duran will look to finish early, and lock up a submission before the first round ends.

Mike Rio   vs.  John Cofer

What we have here, is a fight between two wrestlers. I could debate which of the two is the better wrestler all day, but the fight will be determined on who has the superior skills in the other aspects of MMA. When it comes to jiu-jitsu, they both seem even matched, but I can’t help but think that Rio has a slight edge. He’s won multiple fights by rear naked choke, including the one he secured to make it on the fifteenth season of The Ultimate Fighter. Cofer is a purple belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and has three submission wins of his own, all which are chokes as well. The wrestling and jiu-jitsu will be nearly even, but Cofer’s striking has been more impressive than Rio’s, and that will give him an advantage every second the fight is on the feet. Cofer should feel more comfortable in this fight after having his official UFC debut, and over dangerous opponent, Justin Lawrence. Rio has been on the sidelines healing from two broken ribs and may not have been training as diligent as he could’ve been. Cofer has enough going for him to increase the odds of getting his hand raised, and should win unanimous decision.

Jared Papazian   vs.  Tim Elliot

Papazian’s fights are unpredictable. He was supposed to get destroyed by Mike Easton, but instead he made it a back and forth fight all three rounds. Based on his performance against Easton, most predictions had him defeating Dustin Pague, but instead, he was submitted in the first round. Elliot has good Muay Thai skills, and he isn’t afraid to throw unorthodox strikes while fighting. This style of striking gave current number one flyweight contender, John Dodson, more trouble than anticipated. In fact, Elliot’s loss to Dodson was controversial and many people thought he should’ve gotten the nod. Cardio shouldn’t be an issue for either fighter, so it’s all about who breaks first. It’s likely that Elliot will use unorthodox strikes to catch Papazian off guard, and he will be successful in throwing off his timing to win the fight on the feet. If takedowns are a factor in this fight, that will be another advantage for Elliot as well. Whether the fights stays on the feet of goes to the ground, Elliot does enough to win himself a unanimous decision.

Johnny Bedford   vs.  Marcos Vinicus

Bedford is coming off a year long layoff, but after Vinicus’ fight with Wagner Campos, I’m confident that Bedford will be the superior striker and wrestler, even if the layoff has a negative affect on his performance. Vinicus was outclassed by Campos for over two rounds until he landed that one lucky punch and put Campos on wobbly legs. From there, he when in for the kill and threw a plethora of punches until Herb Dean stopped the fight. If Vinicus has a performance like he did in the first two rounds against Campos, Bedford shouldn’t have any issue controlling the stand up, avoiding the takedown, and finishing Vinicus just like he was able to finish Louis Gaudinot.

Vinc Pichel   vs.  Rustam Khabilov

Both fighters will be making their UFC debut in this fight, but Pichel may not feel octagon jitters due to his time spent on The Ultimate Fighter. Pichel undefeated in his professional MMA career and has all of his seven wins by knockout or TKO, but he showcased his submissions skills on The Ultimate Fighter by submitting John Cofer with an arm triangle. Khabilov on the other hand, is a world champion in Sambo so this should be a classic striker vs. grappler match, with Pichel trying to keep the fight standing and Khabilov initiating a takedown. One this to note, is that Khabilov is twice as experienced as Pichel and has faced a higher level of competition as well. In his fifteen professioanl MMA fights, Khabilov has only lost once, and it was by split decision. There’s always the chance that Pichel could throw that one heavy shot and connect with Khabilov’s chin, but it’s more likely that Khabilov uses his Sambo skills, control the fight, and win a unanimous decision.

TJ Waldburger   vs.  Nick Catone

Waldburger has a dangerous jiu-jitsu style, with the ability to submit just about anybody. He tapped both Mike Stumpf and Jake Hecht in a combined time of just under five minutes, and even gave the experienced MMA veteran, Brian Ebersole, a run for his money by constantly attacking with submission attempts off his back. Ebersole may have been able to avoid getting submitted, but Catone won’t be as fortunate. Catone doesn’t possess the submission defense that Ebersole does, and Waldburger has comes closer to submitting him than other jiu-jitsu savvy fighters he’s faced, such as, Chris Lytle, Dennis Hallman, and Claude Patrick. Catone has been submitted only once in his professioanl MMA career, but he’s never faced an opponent who will attacked off his back as aggressively as Waldburger. The majority of Waldburger’s wins don’t go past the first round, but as we‘ve seen in his fight with Brian Ebersole, if the submission doesn’t come, he will continue to work for the submission even until the final seconds of the fight. Catone is a strong and experienced wrestler, but his wrestling will not stifle the jiu-jitsu of Waldburger, and he will eventually force Catone to tap.

Mike Pyle   vs.  James Head

Ever since dropping down to welterweight, Head has gone 2-0, defeating Papy Abedi and Brian Ebersole. Head’s victories really showcase his ability to compete with good strikers as well as talented grapplers, but Pyle has done the same in defeating John Hathaway, Ricardo Almeida, and Josh Neer. Both Pyle and Head have showcased there Muay Thai and Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, but it will be the wrestling of Pyle that will give him a significant edge on the ground. Not only is Pyle ranked higher in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, but he has far better takedowns which will let him put the fight where he wishes. In his fight against Brian Ebersole, Head was taken down multiple times by the superior wrestler, but it was his striking that ultimately won him the fight. Pyle’s striking is considerably better than Ebersole’s so Head will not be able tee off on Pyle the way he was able to against Ebersole. Head may have a slight advantage in the striking, but the gap in their ground game is much bigger, and for than reason, Pyle has the better chance on getting the win.

 

Written by: Ryan “Fight Freek” Poli
@FightFreek

Hector Lombard   vs.  Rousimar Palhares

His UFC debut was probably the biggest MMA disappointment of the year, but Lombard will be more motivated than ever to shut the media up with a stunning knockout finish. Lombard will have a greater chance of doing so against Palhares because he is as close to being one hundred percent jiu-jitsu, and zero striking, that an MMA fighter can be. There’s always the chance of being submitted if you’re fighting Palhares and he will hold on to a limb as if his life depended on it, but between his strength and his ground skills, Lombard will be able to prevent Palhares from locking up a submission. Look for Lombard to come out quickly in this fight and waste no time trying render Palhares unconscious on the canvas.

Robert Whittaker   vs.  Brad Scott

I doubt anyone will be picking Scott to pull off the upset in this fight. Whittaker scored two consecutive knockouts on The Ultimate Fighter, and this fight may see a third. Scott has showcased decent well rounded skills, but he doesn’t possess the striking, power of aggression that Whittaker does. To be blunt, Scott just isn’t on Whittaker’s level, and it will only be a matter of time until he crumbles under the Whittaker’s power and the ref will need to come to his rescue. Whittaker ends his fights quickly, so this fight shouldn’t go past the first round.

Norman Parke   vs.  Colin Fletcher

Both these fighters have similar skill sets, and for that reason, this fight will be close. Either one of these two talented lightweights could emerge victorious, but my edge goes to Fletcher. Based on the past fights of both fighters, I give a grappling edge to Fletcher as well as having a slight power advantage. The striking advantage can be argued either way, but I’m going with Fletcher mainly for his longer reach. “Freak Show” will use his length on the feet to do enough to get a decision win, but if the fight goes to the ground, don’t be surprised if he finished Parke via submission.

George Sotiropoulos   vs.  Ross Pearson

This is almost a perfect “striker vs. grappler” match up. No one will make the argument that Sotiropoulos has the best striking, or that Pearson has the better ground game, but the winner will be determined by whoever can implement their lesser skill more than the other fight. If Sotiropoulos’ striking is more impressive than Pearson’s ground game, which I think it will be, he will emerge victorious. Because Sotiropoulos’ ground game is so good, his striking goes unnoticed. He was successful in out striking Joe Stevenson, Kurt Pellegrino, and Joe Lauzon, while holding his own in the striking against expert kickboxer, Dennis Siver. With Sotiropoulos’ reach advantage, Pearson will have to work to get inside to land strikes, giving Sotiropoulos the opportunity to clinch and take Pearson down. It doesn’t matter how diligently Pearson has been working on his jiu-jitsu, once on the ground, Sotiropoulos will be in complete control. If Cole Miller was able to submit Pearson, then it should be even easier for Sotiropoulos to tap him with whatever submission he sees and opening for.

 
Written by : Ryan “Fight Freek” Poli
@FightFreek

Nick Penner   vs.  Cody Donovan

After Anthony Perosh annihilated Penner in his UFC debut, Penner’s chances of winning look slim. His striking is considered to be his strongest attribute, but that isn’t saying much seeing Perosh connected more on the feet. I’ve scrutinized Perosh’s striking quite a bit, so obviously I’m nowhere near impressed with the striking of Penner. Donovan has crisp boxing that will be more than enough to handle the exchanges on the feet, and his grappling skills can put Penner in the same compromising positions that Perosh was able to do. He has fought and beaten bigger and stronger fighters outside of the weightclass, including a first round knockout of the world famous, Eric “Butterbean” Esch. With Donovan’s well rounded skills, I don’t see Penner can emerging victorious in this fight. Donovan will look to increase his chances of winning by closing the distance, and securing a takedown. Once the fight is on the ground, it’ll be only a matter of time until Donovan will submit Penner, or stop him via strikes.

Brendan Loughnane   vs.  Mike Wilkinson

There may be only twelve professional fights between these two TUF contestants, but those same twelve fights all have check marks in the win column. Loughnane was able to make it to the semifinals before being bested in a decision by Norman Parke, while Wilkinson made it to the semifinals, but had to withdrawal from the competition due to an eye injury he sustained while sparring. The fact that he was never actually defeated in the competition will motivate Wilkinson as he will try to prove that had it not been for a fluke injury, he could have won it all. Neither fighter has a significant advantage in the striking, but Loughnane is the harder puncher and Wilkinson can’t get complacent on the feet. Loughnane is most effective when he has top control on the ground and he looks to rain down punches and elbows, but he won’t be as successful on the ground as he was against Patrick Iodice, because he will be too busy fighting off Wilkinson’s submission attempts. If the fight hit’s the ground at all, my money is on Wilkinson to end the fight. He shouldn’t have any issue getting Loughnane down over and over to win a decision if he is unable to force the tap.

Ben Alloway   vs.  Manuel Rodriguez

Alloway’s striking is nothing to sneeze at, but it isn’t any better than the striking of Bola Omoyelle. Rodriguez was outclassed by Omoyelle on the feet for the majority of the first round, but Rodriguez eventually got close enough to use his jiu-jitsu and was able to submit Omoyelle with a north-south choke. Ultimately, if Rodriguez was able to overcome the precise striking of Omoyelle and submit him, then he should have no problem executing the exact same plan against Alloway. Alloway’s striking just isn’t enough to keep Rodriguez from getting a takedown, and Alloway will be no match for Rodriguez on the ground. Rodriguez is very skilled in his jiu-jitsu and it should only take him one round to get a hold of Alloway’s neck or limb.

Mike Pierce   vs.  Seth Baczynski

Baczynski has a significant reach advantage over Pierce, but I highly doubt he will be able to capitalize on the feet. Baczynski’s striking isn’t anything spectacular, in fact, when he knocked out Simeon Thoresen it was with the only punch he landed in the fight. Just moments before he connected with the punch, Joe Rogan was commenting on how Baczynski was clearing loosing on the feet. Just like every one of his fights, Pierce will be looking for the takedown and use his expert wrestling to control the fight. Baczynski’s ten submission wins are proof that he is aggressive with his jiu-jitsu and will look submit Pierce when the fight goes to the ground. With the exception of one submission via armbar, all of his submission wins have been some variation of choke. Because Pierce will put Baczynski on his back, the only submission that Baczynski has a chance of pulling off is a triangle choke, which I doubt he will be able to do. Pierce has never been submitted, despite a bout against jiu-jitsu expert, Carlos Rocha. Pierce will stifle the jiu-jitsu attempts with his expert wrestling, much like he did against Rocha, and he will cruise to an easy unanimous decision victory.

Igor Pokrajac   vs.  Joey Beltran

This seems like unnecessary step down in competition for Pokrajac. I realize that he was submitted by Vinny Magalhaes in his last fight, but prior to that, he fought and defeated Fabio Maldonado. If Pokrajac was able to over come the expert striking of Maldonado, then he should have no issue avoiding Beltran’s less technical punches. Beltran hasn’t beaten anyone above average skill level since his knockout victory over Houston Alexander in January of 2010. He was temporarily cut from the UFC in 2012 after loosing four out of five fights, and his loosing trend hasn’t changed since his return. His only credible attributes are his power, and his chin. The ability to take mass amounts of punish certainly won’t win him this fight, nor will I be holding my breath for him to knock Pokrajac out on the off chance that Beltran can land that one big shot. Pokrajac will be able to take Beltran down and control him every round. Beltran’s lack of ground skills will keep him from getting back to his feet, so Pokrajac will have ample time to look for a submission or stoppage. Even if Pokrajac is unable to finish the fight, he will earn himself a unanimous decision win.

Chad Mendes   vs.  Yaotzin Meza

As far as I’m concerned, Mendes is still the number two featherweight in the world. He has been Jose Aldo’s greatest challenge thus far, and I’m still convinced that had it not been for Aldo grabbing the fence, Mendes would’ve slammed him to the canvas and it could’ve been a whole different story. Meza has nearly the same number of wins by both submission and stoppage, so obviously, he has some diversity in his skills. It would appear that Meza prefers to go for chokes, specifically the guillotine, which is a submission that Mendes is quite proficient at himself. Cody McKenzie thought that he would catch Mendes with a guillotine, and that didn’t turn out so well, so a UFC newbie who is taking this fight on short notice will have the skills to tap Mendes. After watching Mendes finish McKenzie in thirty one seconds, he could very well finish Meza in similar fashion, but I’ll play it safe and take him winning a unanimous decision after dominating Meza for all three rounds.

 

Written by : Ryan “Fight Freek” Poli
@FightFreek

Mike Swick   vs.   Matt Brown

For being out of the fight game for two years, Swick had a good performance against DaMarques Johnson. His weight cut and all around preparation will be substantially better in this fight. Brown is a decent striker, but he knows he will loose a stand up war against Swick, so he will look to initiate the ground game in this fight. Brown has been successful in shutting down quick strikers before, such as, Stephen Thompson. The difference is that Swick has better defense on the ground than Thompson, and Brown will not pose a greater threat on the ground than DaMarques Johnson. Swick was taken down by Johnson, and Brown does poses the ability to do the same, but it’s much more likely that Swick will damage Brown on the feet with his fast hands rather than Brown will take Swick down and hold him there for all three rounds. Swick caught DaMarques Johnson early in their fight several times, and since Swick has a history of quick first round knockouts, I betting on him to do the same against Brown.

B.J. Penn   vs.   Rory MacDonald

Like every one of Penn’s fights, his cardio will be in question. When word first spread that Penn was visibly out of shape so close to the fight, no question I was picking MacDonald to win. However, the fight was postponed for two and a half months, and Penn had plenty of time to improve on his conditioning. After MacDonald’s fight against Che Mills, I was surprised how tentative and feeble he looked with his striking. Realizing this, MacDonald looked to take Mills down and finished him on the ground via ground and pound. Penn is known for having excellent boxing and great takedown defense, which will be a deadly threat to MacDonald if he is unsuccessful in getting Penn to the ground. Even if he can get Penn down, Penn is crafty off his back so MacDonald will need to be cautious of armbars, triangles, and any other creative maneuver Penn will thrown at him. I was extremely close to picking Penn in this fight, but MacDonald gets better with every fight and proved that he can overcome being in a compromising situation. He trains with one of the best fighters known to the sport, Georges St-Pierre, and he is incredibly well rounded in his skills. In the end, I have to side with MacDonald based on his performances against high level competition, such as, Mike Pyle, Nate Diaz and Carlos Condit. I foresee Penn slowing down after the first round, and when he does, MacDonald will secure a takedown and control him as Jon Fitch and George St-Pierre were able to. Penn isn’t easy to finish, his fight with Nick Diaz is proof of that, so the fight will go the distance, but it’ll be MacDonald who will get the decision win.

Mauricio “Shogun” Rua   vs.   Alexander Gustafsson

I don’t like Shogun’s chances in this fight, and the betting odds seem to agree with me. Gustafsson has been impressive in every one of his wins, while Shogun has been more “hit or miss“. In his defense, his last three losses have been at the hands of fighters who are all top five in the division, but cardio, aggression, and an all around good performance has been a wildcard for Shogun in the UFC. Shogun is a black belt in jiu-jitsu and most likely won‘t look to stand toe to toe with Gustafsson. However, he’s no specialist in executing the takedowns needed to get this fight to the ground, especially against such a physically strong light heavyweight like Gustafsson. I have the utmost confidence that Gustafsson will keep this fight standing and use his considerable reach advantage and boxing to control the fight. You’re only as good as your last fight, and I wasn’t too impressed with Shogun’s considering it was against Brandon Vera. Shogun’s chin isn’t as strong as Thiago Silva’s so I’m predicting Gustafsson to finish Shogun in similar fashion that Jon Jones was able to do

Benson Henderson   vs.   Nate Diaz

Too many fans of Diaz are overestimating his chances of winning in this fight. They over exaggerate his striking, and although Diaz posses good boxing skills, he rarely utilizes any kicks, a technique that is a large part of Henderson’s offense. It would appear in his recent fights that Diaz has improved on his wrestling and takedown defense, but it won’t be enough to stop Henderson from taking him down at will. Henderson has some of the best submission defense in all of MMA, and it’s certainly good enough for him to avoid be submitted while in top control. The best chance that Diaz has of winning is finding a way to submit Henderson, and I just don’t see that happening. I don’t see Henderson finishing Diaz, but he will win a unanimous decision and retain his belt.

 

Written by : Ryan “Fight Freek” Poli
@FightFreek