Tag: MMA Picks

Michael Chiesa   vs.   Marcus LeVesseur

If it’s one skill LeVesseur possesses, it’s his wrestling. We’re talking about a man who went undefeated in his amateur wrestling career and even outwrestled the current Bellator welterweight champion, Ben Askren. While Chiesa is a skilled wrestler as well, it will be his jiu-jitsu that will pose problems for LeVesseur. In his fight with Cody McKenzie, LeVesseur showed novice level submission defense, and the same mistakes will cost him dearly against Chiesa. Although his submission defense was much improved in his fight with jiu-jitsu black belt, Carlo Prater, Prater doesn’t have the wrestling skills that Chiesa possess. The one thing that could cost Chiesa the win is his striking. Chiesa’s striking skills have been described as making Jake Shields look like a professional kick boxer, but even with his amateur striking, he was capable of defeating good strikers and powerful wrestlers to win the fifteenth season of The Ultimate Fighter. If Chiesa was able to submit a strong wrestler like Al Iaquinta, who is more jiu-jitsu savvy than LeVesseur, then he absolutely has the necessary tools to outsmart LeVesseur on the ground and will get another submission win with a second consecutive rear naked choke.

Raphael Assuncao   vs.   Mike Easton

Assuncao is undefeated since dropping to bantamweight, but Easton is a strong fighter, and fights with mass amounts of aggression. Unlike Assuncao’s last two opponents, Easton won’t let Assuncao to be the one to set the pace of the fight, and this may throw Assuncao off his game when he feels bullied. Assuncao has displayed creative striking in his recent bouts, but it was against lesser talented competition, and that may have allowed him to throw strikes that he won’t be able to land against Easton. After defeating Ivan Menjivar in his last fight, I‘m surprised that Easton isn‘t fighting someone closer to the top ten of the division. Because of this recent victory over a top bantamweight, Easton will be the favorite to win, and I agree with the odds. Easton will rush Assuncao in the opening second of the round and end this fight early. This fight should end quick, but even if Assuncao makes it out of the first round, I’m betting on Easton to get the knockout.

Ramsey Nijem   vs.   Joe Proctor

Proctor is talented on the ground, but Nijem will still be looking for the takedown. Nijem is a well rounded grappler who has both good wrestling style takedowns with judo sweeps as he displayed against C.J. Keith. However, Nijem relies too heavily on his ground game and will be in a world of trouble if he can’t secure a takedown. Nijem’s striking is on the border of awkward and sloppy. Even his most recent technical knockout win, which was grossly premature, was due to ground and pound and wasn‘t set up on the feet.. Although Proctor may not be on a professional kick boxer‘s level, he was able to knockout Jeremy Larsen, who is strictly a striker, and will without a doubt possess the striking advantage. C.J. Keith was able to mount Nijem for a short period of time in their fight, and Proctor possess better ground skills than Keith. Proctor was trained in jiu-jitsu by UFC veteran Joe Lauzon, so even if Nijem can take him down, he will hold his own and could potentially catch Nijem in a submission. I don’t see Nijem taking Proctor down over and over again at will; I find it much more likely that Proctor will make Nijem work for the takedowns and eventually catch him with one clean shot that will drop Nijem and he will land follow up strikes until the ref intervenes.

Yves Edwards   vs.   Jeremy Stephens

I’m quite surprised that so many people are picking Edwards to defeat Stephens in this fight. We’re talking about a fighter who engaged in a striking bout with Melvin Guillard and lost a split decision, and yet Stephens striking isn’t good enough to match Edwards’? Let’s not even bring up the fact that Stephens out struck Sam Stout in the majority of their fight and Stout was able to knockout Edwards in the first round. Even if their striking is dead even, Stephens has the heavier hands. Did no one do their research for this fight? If anyone is getting knocked out in this fight, it will be Edwards. Stephens traded shots with Donald Cerrone, Anthony Pettis, and Marcus Davis; I’m pretty sure Yves Edwards isn’t going to bring anything new to the table that Stephens won’t be more than capable of handling. Look for this fight to be a stand up war and end with Stephens putting Edwards to sleep with a big right hand.

Daron Cruickshank   vs.   Henry Martinez

Martinez is just about the most one dimensional fighter in the UFC. He’s going to stand in front of his opponent, and aggressively headhunt like he did against Matthew Riddle and Bernardo Magalhaes. This style is extremely predictable and I doubt Cruickshank will have any issue using his footwork and head movement to avoid any real damage. I doubt Martinez will be looking to take the fight to the ground, so Cruickshank will be able use more of his karate style kicks and keep Martinez out of attacking range. Even if Martinez is able to close the distance, Cruickshank has a wrestling background and will duck under Martinez’s punches to secure a takedown anytime Martinez looks to throw. In his fight with Bernardo Magalhaes, Martinez seemed to tire after the first round and was less aggressive because of it, so if cardio is an issue for Martinez in this fight, Cruickshank will be able to land a significant amount of offense. The only way I can see Martinez emerging as the victor, is if he gets a lucky knockout, which I don’t see happening. If Cruickshank can’t finish Martinez, there’s no reason he shouldn’t at take a unanimous decision victory.

 

Written by : Ryan “Fight Freek” Poli
@FightFreek

Dennis Siver   vs.   Nam Phan

Ultimately, Nam Phan is just a less talented version of Diego Nunes, so I doubt Phan can win this fight simply because Siver already defeated Nunes. Not only did Siver win two of three rounds in his fight with Nunes, he did so in his featherweight debut. I’m confident the Siver will have a much better weight cut in this fight that will only better his performace. Phan won’t be able to surprise Siver with his quick striking and creative kicks, and Siver has been known to dish out a few creative strikes of his own, such as his spinning back kick. Just like his fight with Diego Nunes, Siver will be the physically stronger of the two, and will be landing the more damaging shots. Phan won’t be able to match Siver blow for blow and eventually will crumble under the sheer power of Siver’s strikes to give the German a TKO victory.

Scott Jorgensen   vs.   John Albert

I’m disappointed with the fact that Albert has been unable to not only finish his opponents when he has the upper hand, but is also quick to lose the dominate position, then find himself in a world of trouble. After having Ivan Menjivar turtled up against the cage while raining down punches, it was less than a minute later that Menjivar reversed the position, took Albert’s back, and secured a rear naked choke. In following fight, Albert was unable to finish Erik Perez with a triangle choke that he had locked up for a good minute. Perez eventually escaped and soon after caught Albert in an armbar that ended the fight. Jorgensen is a tough fighter with knockout power, so if a fighter can’t put him away, he will fire back. Albert can’t match the strength of Jorgensen, and he won’t be able to submit him. Even if Jorgensen finds himself in a compromising position, based on Albert’s past fights, I guarantee that Jorgensen will reverse the position and make Albert pay. Regardless of these criticisms, Albert is a durable fighter and will avoid being finished, but it’s Jorgensen who will get back to his winning ways.

Tim Means   vs.   Abel Trujillo

Even with the help of Rashad Evans and the veteran fighters the Blackzilians gym, Trujillo won’t have what it takes to defeat Means. Trujillo has finished more than half of his opponents, but after researching the fighters he’s beaten, it becomes evident that Trujillo has only beaten fighters on an amateur level. One of Trujillo’s past opponents had an MMA record of 2-7; how bad is that? With only two fights in the octagon, Means has showcased well rounded skills. In his fights with Bernardo Magalhaes and Justin Salas, Means utilized his long reach advantage to beat both in the striking. Neither fighter was successful in overcoming the dirty bird’s proficient takedown defense, and Means was victorious with a one sided decision, and a first round stoppage. I don’t see this fight being any different, Means can stop Trujillo in the first round or cruise to an easy decision win. Either way, Means gets a third consecutive victory.

 

Written by : Ryan “Fight Freek” Poli

@FightFreek

Mark Hominick   vs.   Pablo Garza

Garza may have excellent Jiu-jitsu, but his wrestling is amateur level, and his striking isn’t anything spectacular. Hominick won’t have any problem keeping this fight on the feet and picking Garza apart. Garza’s wrestling isn’t good enough for him to take Hominick down so his only chance for success is to close the distance and pull guard. Garza was able to submit Yves Jabouin, who is an excellent striker, but Hominick is much more knowledgeable in jiu-jitsu than Jabouin, so I don’t see him getting caught in one of Garza’s submission attempts. If Hominick isn’t able to eventually knock Garza out, he will take a unanimous decision victory.

Nick Ring   vs.   Costa Philippou

Philippou has really showcased his excellent boxing skills in his last several fights, which is even more effective due to his excellent takedown defense. Philippou was much more successful in his fights with Riki Fukuda and Court McGee than Ring was when he fought them. In fact, I thought Ring should’ve been on the loosing end of both those fights, but lucked out due to judging incompetence. Philippou will be able to avoid Ring’s takedown attempts and will clearly have the advantage in the striking. If James Head was able to drop Ring in their fight, I have full confidence that Philippou will hurt Ring and put him away. Ring may last the first round, but soon after Philippou will knock him out.

Francis Carmont   vs.   Tom Lawlor

I used to think that Carmont was an overrated fighter, but with each one of his victories in the octagon, he has gained more of my respect. Lawlor is a talented fighter who has excellent wrestling, but I highly doubt that Lawlor will be able to use his wrestling effectively against Carmont. If a powerful wrestler like Karlos Vemola was unable to use his wrestling against Carmont, then I certainly don’t see Lawlor being able to succeed with the same game plan. Now Lawlor does possess good boxing, but Carmont will easily outclass him on the feet with his superior striking and sizable reach advantage. Carmont should have no problem avoiding Lawlor’s takedown attempts and will even find himself in the top position on the ground. After softening his opponent up with punches, Carmont will look for his third consecutive rear-naked choke victory.
Martin Kampmann   vs.   Johnny Hendricks

This fight is pretty split in the predictions, which is understandable. Kampmann has the technical striking advantage, and quite possibly the jiu-jitsu advantage as well. However, Kampmann will not be able to successfully use his jiu-jitsu due to the expert wrestling of Hendricks. Kampmann has been susceptible to getting sucked into a dogfight rather than a technical striking battle, and when that happens it’s often bad news for him. Hendricks has the power advantage and has striking skills that are good enough to stand with Kampmann until he can set up the takedown. Seeing that Hendricks was able to stand with Josh Koscheck, I doubt Kampmann will be able to pick apart Hendricks so easily. Kampmann gets caught with a heavy strike in nearly every one of his fights and those are not good odds when fighting Hendricks, and I see Kampmann getting up close and personal with the heavy left hand. Kampmann has recovered well in the past, even when it seemed that he was going to get finished. Either way, if Hendricks doesn’t knock out Kampmann, his wrestling skills are more than enough to win him a unanimous decision.

Georges St-Pierre   vs.   Carlos Condit

As much as I’d like to see Condit pull off the win, I’m skeptical if he will be the fighter to dethrone the long-time welterweight champ. Condit truly is a complete fighter, but GSP has always given the best of the best problems with his wrestling alone. Condit is skilled off of his back, but if GSP avoided submissions from B.J. Penn while in his guard, I’ll have to think twice before thinking Condit will be able submit him off his back. Because Condit has a heavy kicking offense, GSP will look to grab a leg and take Condit down. If Condit chooses not to use any kicks, it will severely weaken his range and offense. It’s safe to assume that Condit his working day and night on his takedown defense, but I don’t think it will be enough. GSP won’t finish Condit seeing he never finishes any of his opponents anymore, but he should retain his belt by winning a close, but unanimous decision.
Written by : Ryan Poli
@FightFreek

Steven Siler   vs.   Darren Elkins

Siler has shown well rounded skills against several quality opponents, but of his three UFC bouts, neither of his opponents has the takedowns or top control that Elkins possess. He was able to take and hold down Diego Brandao, who is a much better striker and grappler than Siler. Simple logic, if Diego Brandao wasn’t able to do enough to defeat Elkins, I see no way that Siler will be able to catch Elkins on the feet, or with a submission. Elkins will grind out another unanimous decision.

Ivan Menjivar   vs.   Azamat Gashimov

This is almost too easy to call, but will the biggest upset if I end up picking incorrectly. Bottom line, Menjivar has so much experience with fighting the best of the best. Who has Gashimov fought? Exactly. There’s always a possibility that Gashimov will land that one lucky punch, but I’ll never predict a fighter to win based solely on a lucky punch. I’m actually surprised that the UFC didn’t match him up with someone closer to the elite of the division even after his loss to Mike Easton. Menjivar’s well rounded skills will be more than enough to defeat Gashimov nearly anyway he chooses.

Matthew Riddle   vs.   John Maguire

I will admit that I was impressed with Riddle’s striking in his fight with Chris Clements. It was my prediction that Clements was going to win that fight and win big, but I couldn’t have been more wrong. Nonetheless, I hardly think his last fight is any reason to think Riddle will be able to overcome the submission skills of Maguire. If Riddle’s striking was on the same level of John Hathaway, then I’d agree that he’d have a good chance of winning. Unfortunately for Riddle, this is not the case, and Maguire will sooner or later take this fight to the ground. Once on the ground, it will be only a matter of time until the Brit is able to tap Riddle; most likely this fight will end in the first round.

Antonio Carvalho   vs.   Rodrigo Damn

After Carvalho’s win over Daniel Pineda, it will take a pretty big name for me to think about picking against him. His striking was extremely crisp and if Carvalho has a similar performance in this fight, it will be ugly for Damn. Damn has both experience and well rounded skills, but is primarily a grappler, so although Carvalho can outclass Damn everywhere the fight goes, he will look to knock Damn out on the feet rather than playing the submission game.

Sam Stout   vs.   John Makdessi

I’m hoping that this will be a stand up fight, but I’m betting that Stout will try to take Makdessi to the ground where he should have the advantage. As we’ve seen in his fight against Dennis Hallman, Makdessi is like a fish out of water when he put on his back, and he doesn’t even have the takedown defense he should to make up for his lack of ground skills. Just based on this alone, I feel I should pick Stout to win. However, I’ll be picking Makdessi. He’s on a two fight loosing streak and one more loss could cause him to get cut from the UFC. This is the kind of push he will need to come into this fight in shape and focused, ready to finish any opponent that is in his way. The flip side to Makdessi having no ground skills is that his striking is outstanding. Stout may have good kickboxing skills, but he will not be able to go toe to toe with Makdessi on the feet. I don’t see Makdessi loosing three fights in a row. His aggressive striking will stifle any takedown attempts that Stout may try, and Makdessi will look to finish this fight in the first round by knockout.

Mark Bocek   vs.   Rafael dos Anjos

Even though I’d give a slight edge in jiu-jitsu to dos Anjos, they both are experts on the ground. What will really make a difference in this fight is the obvious skill difference in the striking department. His fight with Clay Guida was the turning point in which we saw the drastically improved stand up from dos Anjos to become quite the muay thai striker. Following that fight, he knocked out George Sotiropoulos in only twenty nine seconds. I won’t say that Bocek has poor stand up, but he clearly isn’t on dos Anjos’ striking level. We may still see a submission chess battle on the ground, but I think dos Anjos will look to take Bocek out on the feet, and will successfully do so late in the fight.

Diabate Cyrille   vs.   Chad Griggs

To be blunt, I haven’t been impressed with Diabate’s performance in his last several fights, but he still has advantages over Griggs. No one knows how the cut to light heavyweight will go, and it could potentially have a negative affect on his performance. Also there’s the obvious reach advantage to Diabate which will only increase the advantage he already possess in the technical striking. Diabate’s real weakness has been in the grappling department, but as Griggs showed in his fight with Travis Browne, he can be dominated in the grappling as well. This leads me to believe that the diffence will be in the striking and that clearly goes to Diabate. Based on his recent performance, I don’t think Diabate will finish Griggs, but he should be able to win himself a unanimous decision.

Patrick Cote   vs.   Alessio Sakara

After his fight with Cung Le, I thought people would stop over exaggerating Cote’s striking and power. With the exception of myself, every prediction was the same with Cote knocking out Le early in the first round. In reality, Cote was outclasses by a superior striker all three rounds and the same will happen in this fight with Sakara. Because of the iron chin of Cote, I won’t jump to the conclusion Sakara winning by knockout, but Cote does not possess the technical striking that Sakara, a former professional boxer, possesses. Because of his recent knockout loss to Brian Stann, People are accusing Sakara of having a weak chin, when Stann was one of only two men to every knockout Chris Leben, the other man being the great Anderson Silva. Sakara’s chin will be underestimated just as Cung Le’s was, and it will be a crucial mistake. Sakara will use his footwork, head movement and superior boxing to outpoint Cote all three rounds, just as Cung Le did.

 

Written by : Ryan “Fight Freek” Poli
@FightFreek

 

Tiequan Zhang   vs.   Jon Tuck

Tuck is coming off two first round knockouts and I’m predicting a third. Zhang is far from impressive in his fights, and a powerful striker is his kryptonite. Zhang will be unable to clinch with Tuck and he is no match for him on the feet. Tuck will pick Zhang apart until he lands that one clean shot that will put Zhang out.

Alex Caceres   vs.   Motonobu Tezuka

Caceres got lucky when Kyung Ho Kang pulled out due to injury because I predicted that he’d defeat Caceres. Tezuka on the other hand, won’t pose as much of a threat, and the now greater reach advantage that Caceres has over Tezuka will make his gameplan a pure striking one. Caceres will use his length and superior striking to outpoint Tezuka, he should avoid the ground game at all costs. Caceres will take unanimous decision.

Takanori Gomi   vs.   Mac Danzig

Gomi isn’t the same fighter he was in his pride days, other than his knockout of Tyson Griffin, Gomi has had zero success in the octagon. Danzig hasn’t had the greatest career in the octagon, but he has shown well rounded skills that will be enough to defeat Gomi. Gomi constantly leaves his hands low, and will get caught over and over with Danzig’s snapping jab. Danzig’s technical boxing is superior to Gomi’s and Danzig can also out wrestling Gomi and press him up against the cage. Gomi’s only chance to win is to put Danzig to sleep with his heavy hands, and Danzig will avoid it easily. Look for Danzig to suck the will out of Gomi and finish him just like Kenny Florian did with a rear naked choke.

Dong Hyun Kim   vs.   Paulo Thiago

Both fighters are well experienced on the ground with skills in judo and jiu-jitsu. Kim and Thiago have improved on their striking, but Kim was more impressive with his striking in his fight with Sean Pierson. Thiago did outclass David Mitchell on the feet, but Mitchell had less than novice striking so I’m not too impressed. The ground skills of Kim and Thiago will cancel out, and Kim striking and reach advantage will be the differnce in this fight and will get him the unanimous decision win.
Thiago Silva   vs.   Stanislav Nedkov

Although Silva was completely outclasses in his fight with Alexander Gustafsson, I don’t see him having any problem getting a victory in China. Nedkov has power in his hands, but he displayed very predictable, one dimensional striking in his fight with Luiz Cane. In fact, Cane was clearly getting the better of Nedkov until he was on the receiving end of a punch that put him on wobbly legs, and Nedkov took advantage of the opportunity to finish him off. Nedkov may have been able to catch Cane, but I don’t see him having such luck against Silva. Silva is very well rounded and should have the advantage no matter where the fight goes and he will do to Nedkov the same thing he did to Brandon Vera. Silva will take Nedkov to the ground and land heavy strikes that will absolutely destroy Nedkov’s face, only this time, Silva will get the stoppage.

Rich Franklin   vs.   Cung Le

This is a much bigger opportunity for Le than it is for Franklin. Nearly everyone thought Le would get knocked out by Patrick Cote, although he proved everyone wrong, I have zero confidence that he can beat Franklin. Le’s creative kicks won’t be enough to fluster Franklin and he will most likely tire after the first round. Franklin’s superior cardio will allow him to push the pace and he will start to take over the in the striking. If Franklin doesn’t Knockout Le on the feet, he can just as easily look for a takedown and submit Le. Either way, Franklin will end the fight in the second round.

 

Written by : Ryan Poli

@Fight Freek

David Mitchell   vs.   Hyun Gyu Lim

Lim may be making his UFC debut, but with the event having such an Asian heavy crowd, it may still give Lim the feeling of having a home field advantage. Lim has been described as the best boxer in all of South Korea, and that could very well be true. He’s going to looking to keep the fight standing and knock Mitchell out, especially after Mitchell’s lack of striking skill was exposed in his last fight with Paulo Thiago, who isn’t even known as a striker. For a fighter who is primarily a Jiu-Jitsu practitioner, Mitchell’s Jiu-Jitsu isn’t anything spectacular. Lim should have no problem evading Mitchell’s takedown attempts and using his boxing to end this fight early. Mitchell may be a big welterweight, but Lim has fought and finished many of his opponents who clearly had a size advantage over him, after all Lim used to fight at middleweight. Unless Lim chokes in his octagon debut or Mitchell has improved drastically in every aspect of his game, Lim will make Mitchell look like an amateur. I’m predicting Lim to get an early knockout.

Takeya Mizugaki   vs.   Jeff Hougland

It’s no secret that Hougland’s best chance of winning is to catch Mizugaki with a submission. Mizugaki may not have the best striking, but it’s an advantage he will enjoy in this fight. As we saw in his fight against Yves Jabouin, Hougland’s striking is a notch above novice level, and while Mizugaki is no Yves Jabouin, I doubt that Hougland will be a threat to him on the feet. Even with Jiu-Jitsu being Hougland’s greatest attribute, it isn’t on the same level of someone like Rani Yahya, and even Yahya wasn’t able to beat Mizugaki using Jiu-Jitsu. I don’t see Hougland getting a dominate position on the ground and therefore, see a victory for Mizugaki. I give credit to Hougland for his durability and determination to always stay in the fight, so I don’t think Mizugaki will be able to finish him, but I am predicting him to win a unanimous decision.

Riki Fukuda   vs.   Tom DeBlass

Although he had a strong first round in his fight with Cyrille Diabate, DeBlass didn’t have the cardio to go the following ten minutes, and that cost him the fight. If DeBlass had poor cardio fighting at light heavyweight, I’m not too confident that his cut to middleweight will go smoothly. Fukuda on the other hand, hasn’t shown a cardio problem in his past fights, and will be fighting at his normal weight class. This alone will give Fukuda an advantage, but Fukuda also possesses the striking advantage as well. Both of these fighters are primarily grapplers, but DeBlass showed zero striking in his UFC debut, while Fukuda has excellent leg kicks, body kicks and impressive counter punches. As if Fukuda didn’t have enough advantages, he is also much more experienced than DeBlass with three times as many professional fights. Best case scenario for DeBlass he edges out Fukuda in the first round, but then Fukuda easily takes the next two. Either way, I’m picking Fukuda to win a decision.

Yasuhiro Urushitani   vs.   John Lineker

Urushitani was extremely tentative in his fight with Joseph Benavidez and therefore landed very little offense. Lineker has an even more aggressive style than Benavidez, and that leads me to believe that Urushitani will have a hard time pulling the trigger in this fight. Lineker was clearly getting the best of Louis Gaudinot and had five times the significant strikes, but in the end, succumbed to a guillotine choke. Lineker will be have a lot of rage coming into this fight, and Urushitani won’t have an answer for Lineker’s heavy hands. I’ll be surprised if Urushitani makes it out of the first round, but regardless of how long it takes, Lineker will get the knockout.

 

Written by :  Ryan Poli