UFC 202: Nate Diaz vs. Conor McGregor 2 Main Card Preview and Predictions

It’s close. Even with the grandiosity of UFC 200, the shakeups of UFC 201 and the various Fight Night cards dotted around in between, the MMA world has its eyes set on just one fight: Nate Diaz vs. Conor McGregor 2.
With UFC 201 out of the way, there i…

It’s close. Even with the grandiosity of UFC 200, the shakeups of UFC 201 and the various Fight Night cards dotted around in between, the MMA world has its eyes set on just one fight: Nate Diaz vs. Conor McGregor 2.

With UFC 201 out of the way, there is just one more card and two more Saturdays between fans and the biggest fight of the summer. Of course, there are plenty of other bouts to talk about as well. The full UFC 202 card is as follows:

  • Nate Diaz vs. Conor McGregor 
  • Anthony Johnson vs. Glover Teixeira 
  • Rick Story vs. Donald Cerrone 
  • Tim Means vs. Sean Strickland 
  • Cody Garbrandt vs. Takeya Mizugaki 
  • Raquel Pennington vs. Elizabeth Phillips 
  • Hyun Gyu Lim vs. Sultan Aliev 
  • Alberto Uda vs. Marvin Vettori 
  • Neil Magny vs. Lorenz Larkin 
  • Artem Lobov vs. Chris Avila 
  • Ning Guangyou vs. Marlon Vera 
  • Colby Covington vs. Max Griffin

The bout order is yet to be officially revealed, but all signs point to the first five bouts being the UFC 202 main card. With that in mind, it’s worth taking an early look at the card and recapping the importance of each match.

Welcome, ladies and gentlemen, to Bleacher Report’s early look at UFC 202.

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UFC 201 Results: Matches to Make for the Winners and Losers

UFC 201 saw the crowning of yet another new champion.
Tyron Woodley ousted Robbie Lawler in the first round with his vicious right hand. The former Strikeforce standout claimed UFC gold and will now be looking for his next challenge.
In the co-main eve…

UFC 201 saw the crowning of yet another new champion.

Tyron Woodley ousted Robbie Lawler in the first round with his vicious right hand. The former Strikeforce standout claimed UFC gold and will now be looking for his next challenge.

In the co-main event, Karolina Kowalkiewicz defeated rising star Rose Namajunas by split decision. The victory puts Kowalkiewicz in prime position in the strawweight division, but the result also makes for an interesting next step for Namajunas.

11 fights in total happened in Atlanta on Saturday. There are 10 winners, 10 losers and 2 fighters coming off a draw. The UFC matchmakers, Joe Silva and Sean Shelby, now have to determine the next best steps for these athletes and the company as a whole.

We are here to help them along.

Here is your look at the matches to make, for both the winners and losers, following UFC 201’s outstanding night of fights.

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UFC 201 Fight Card: PPV Schedule, Odds and Predictions for Lawler vs. Woodley

Robbie Lawler’s third welterweight title defense headlines the card for UFC 201 at Atlanta’s Philips Arena on Saturday night. The champion has endured some gruelling recent bouts and faces a skilled challenger who has had to wait for his big chance: Ty…

Robbie Lawler‘s third welterweight title defense headlines the card for UFC 201 at Atlanta’s Philips Arena on Saturday night. The champion has endured some gruelling recent bouts and faces a skilled challenger who has had to wait for his big chance: Tyron Woodley.

The Lawler and Woodley tussle isn’t the only notable bout on the main card, though. Rose Namajunas‘ meeting with fellow contender Karolina Kowalkiewicz deservedly has co-main event billing.

Here are the schedule details for the pay-per-view event:

Date: Saturday, June 30

Time:  Main Card (10 p.m. ET/3 a.m. BST). Early Prelims (7 p.m. ET/12 a.m. BST). FS2 Prelims (8 p.m. ET/1 a.m. BST). 

Here’s the full fight card information, along with odds:

 

Predictions

Choosing a winner between Lawler and Woodley is no easy task, but at least two experts agree about how the headline fight will play out. ESPN’s Brett Okamoto is going for a fourth-round TKO for the defending champion, while Jonathan Bradley of Fox Sports also fancies a Lawler knockout in the fourth.

A common theme for each writer is punching power, both in terms of each fighter’s chops as strikers, along with their ability to absorb shots.

The latter is a consideration Okamoto is unable to ignore. He’s cited telling statistics that suggest Lawler will be under pressure if Woodley can land consistently up top: “According to FightMetric, Lawler has absorbed 642 strikes since the start of 2014. He’s gone five hellacious rounds, back-to-back-to-back. When do these wars catch up? Lawler is 34 in human yearsand probably something like 112 in fighter years.”

In order for Woodley to exploit those concerns, though, he’ll need to connect with significant strikes. It’s an area in which he’s inferior to the champion, however, according to Bradley: “Lawler and Woodley have virtually identical striking statistics, with both fighters landing over three strikes per minute at a 46-percent clip. Where they differ, however, is in significant strikes, as Lawler lands 3.51 significant strikes per minute compared to 2.56 for Woodley.”

Assessing Woodley‘s punching power is a common theme ahead of this fight. UFC Europe also asked whether the 34-year-old challenger can pack enough into his fists to put Lawler down decisively:

Counting on Woodley to land a knockout blow is a risky bet, since he’s more at home as a grappler. Unfortunately for the challenger, that’s an area where Lawler is rarely troubled.

So count on Lawler making good on these predictions and using his own skill as a striker to wear down and eventually knock Woodley out.

When Namajunas meets Kowalkiewicz, she’ll have to be mindful of the latter’s ferocity as a hitter. FightMetric detailed how Kowalkiewicz lands 6.17 significant strikes per minute.

Countering those fast and tough hands will demand keeping things on the mat. Fortunately for Namajunas, her 3.49 takedowns average, along with 66 percent takedowns accuracy, per FightMetric, means she’s well-equipped to take her opponent out of her comfort zone.

If Namajunas can break down Kowalkiewicz‘s underrated defense and keep her grounded, she’s more likely to lock on the submission hold that can end this intriguing fight.

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UFC 201: Bleacher Report Main Card Staff Predictions

UFC 201 is almost here! Reigning welterweight champion Robbie Lawler (27-10) risks his belt for the third time when he steps into the cage with Tyron Woodley (15-3) at the Philips Arena in Atlanta, Georgia, on Saturday. 
Lawler is so game to fight…

UFC 201 is almost here! Reigning welterweight champion Robbie Lawler (27-10) risks his belt for the third time when he steps into the cage with Tyron Woodley (15-3) at the Philips Arena in Atlanta, Georgia, on Saturday. 

Lawler is so game to fight—and, let’s be honest, to take punishment—that he always entertains. His bloody brawl with Rory MacDonald in July 2015 even took Fight of the Year honors. Woodley is coming back after 16 months; his last scheduled fight was set for October 2015 against former champion Johny Hendricks, but it fell through when Hendricks ran into weight-cutting issues. Hopefully Woodley is itching to dazzle us.

With the fight between Ian McCall and Justin Scoggins scrapped—also due to problems with weight cutting—the Ryan Benoit vs. Fredy Serrano bout has been promoted to the main card. The lineup is now:

  • Robbie Lawler vs. Tyron Woodley
  • Rose Namajunas vs. Karolina Kowalkiewicz
  • Matt Brown vs. Jake Ellenberger
  • Francisco Rivera vs. Erik Perez
  • Ryan Benoit vs. Fredy Serrano

Follow me, Craig Amos, Scott Harris, Nathan McCarter and Steven Rondina down the rabbit hole of predictions!

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Rose Namajunas vs. Karolina Kowalkiewicz: A Head-to-Toe Breakdown

UFC 201 will feature a big strawweight showdown in the co-main event.
No. 3-ranked Rose Namajunas (5-2) meets No. 7-ranked Karolina Kowalkiewicz (9-0) inside the Octagon.
Namajunas shined on The Ultimate Fighter and came out the other end a star for th…

UFC 201 will feature a big strawweight showdown in the co-main event.

No. 3-ranked Rose Namajunas (5-2) meets No. 7-ranked Karolina Kowalkiewicz (9-0) inside the Octagon.

Namajunas shined on The Ultimate Fighter and came out the other end a star for the UFC. After battering Paige VanZant this past December, Namajunas re-assumed her spot among the elite at 115 pounds. She then avenged a loss to Tecia Torres in April.

Kowalkiewicz has slowly worked her way up the ladder in the division. She scored a win over Mizuki Inoue in Invicta and has won both her UFC bouts with impressive striking displays. Now she faces her toughest test to date.

UFC strawweight champion Joanna Jedrzejczyk will be watching this fight closely, as the winner will be in prime position to challenge for her gold.

Which sensational fighter has the edge in this matchup? Let’s break down the all the areas and find out who gets her hand raised in Atlanta with a head-to-toe breakdown of Namajunas vs. Kowalkiewicz.

 

Rankings are based on Bleacher Report’s July MMA rankings.

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Lawler vs. Woodley: Career Stats, Odds, Highlights for Both Before UFC 201

When “Ruthless” Robbie Lawler competes, there’s a good chance he’s winning Fight of the Night. 
The reigning welterweight champion has taken Fight of the Night honors in four of his last six bouts, with the last two coming in ultra-violent title d…

When “Ruthless” Robbie Lawler competes, there’s a good chance he’s winning Fight of the Night. 

The reigning welterweight champion has taken Fight of the Night honors in four of his last six bouts, with the last two coming in ultra-violent title defenses. 

In short, he’s the most exciting champion in the UFC right now, and at UFC 201 on Saturday, he’ll take on another dangerous opponent who will try to put him away. 

Tyron Woodley has been away from UFC action for more than a year-and-a-half. However, his return fight will afford him the chance to walk away as the champion. 

That’s proved rather difficult for challengers to Ruthless in the past. Here’s a look at how the two men match up, along with the latest odds from Odds Shark

 

How Tyron Woodley Got Here

Woodley is the classic wrestler who can also take an opponent’s head off with his power. Much like Johny Hendricks, he wrestled at the collegiate level before diving into MMA

The result is a fighter who has five knockouts, five submission victories and five wins via decision. 

At his best, Woodley is a powerful striker who can catch opponents with a big shot and then follow up with a takedown and work his ground-and-pound. Fans saw him do all of that within one round against Josh Koscheck before blasting him with a brutal overhand right while Koscheck was attempting to close the distance. 

Woodley’s ability to blitz opponents with aggressive salvos and dart back out of harm’s way has also led to knockouts of Dong Hyun Kim and Carlos Condit in recent years. 

However, Woodley can be inconsistent. UFC welterweight contender Stephen Thompson broke down the dichotomy of the “two Woodleys” who can show up to a fight, per Ryan Gerbosi of Newsday:

“There are two different types of Tyron that show up. Sometimes you get the one that knocks a guy out in the first round. He’s very explosive right off the bat and he’s out for the kill,” Thompson said. “But you also get the guy who sometimes shows up, like when you saw him fight Kelvin Gastelum, he was kind of a little hesitant, wasn’t really too sure or confident in his blitzing. He wasn’t the Tyron that most people like to see, the one who goes out there and just knocks the guy out.”

“Hesitant” Woodley can win, but it’s not pretty or championship-level. In his last time out in January 2015, he eked out a spit decision against Kelvin Gastelum, landing only 27 strikes over the course of the three-round fight.

He’ll need to do better against Lawler.

     

How Robbie Lawler Got Here

The story of Lawler is well-known by now. He made his UFC debut 14 years ago in 2002 and eventually fought in Pride, EliteXC and Strikeforce with mixed results before returning to the UFC. 

Lawler came back to the UFC fresh off a 3-5 run at Strikeforce. He was written off as a journeyman retread before embarking on the best run of his career. Since coming back, he’s 8-1 in the Octagon, and he avenged his only loss by beating Hendricks to win the title. 

The champ has returned to the UFC as toughness personified. The refined version of his game still has him absorbing punishment, but he’s also able to return fire with crushing power. In his short title reign, he’s already given fans three fights that will be hard to forget. 

Just look at the significant strike numbers from his reign:

His opponents out-landed him in two of those three fights, yet he found ways to win. 

In becoming the champion, he’s mastered the art of grit, walking through punishment to keep the pressure on opponents. He keeps swinging until they aren’t in front of him anymore or he’s earned the judges’ approval. 

Whether he can continue to take on punishment will be the story in this fight. 

     

Prediction

This fight has intrigue everywhere. It’s defined by questions we won’t have the answers to until the fight unfolds.

Can Lawler continue to take upwards of 100 strikes in fights and still win? Will the 18-month layoff impact Woodley? 

Lawler’s defense is historically bad. As Reed Kuhn of Fightnomics notes, few active fighters have been hit by distance strikes to the head more than Lawler has:

Another interesting angle to watch is how the fight goes in the later rounds. With a ton of muscle and a reliance on quick movements, Woodley has been known to fade late in fights. Meanwhile, Lawler appears to be a cyborg who uses the damage he absorbs to become stronger and redistribute that pain right back to his opponents. 

That has to be a concern for Woodley, who said he feels comfortable brawling with the champion, per Elias Cepeda of Fox Sports: “I can take it to the ground and grapple, I can wrestle, I can obviously strike with creative strikes and get there really quickly, but in addition to that, I just feel I can brawl and bang as well so there’s multiple different ways I feel comfortable winning the fight.”

That’s a dangerous game to sign up for. Lawler drew Rory MacDonald, Hendricks and Condit into brawls, and all three lost to the champ. 

It wouldn’t be altogether shocking to see Woodley come out aggressively and win the fight in the first round. The cumulative damage done to Lawler over the years could finally take its toll. 

However, it’s more likely that Lawler takes over the fight in the later rounds after Woodley has some success in Rounds 1 and 2, so that’s the prediction. 

Prediction: Lawler by decision.

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