UFC 216: Bleacher Report Main Card Staff Predictions

UFC 216 is an awkward card for the UFC, sitting in the purgatory between the company’s summer blockbusters and its stacked winter shows. Still, there is a great deal of intrigue on this card and lots of fun waiting to be had. The main card stands as fo…

UFC 216 is an awkward card for the UFC, sitting in the purgatory between the company’s summer blockbusters and its stacked winter shows. Still, there is a great deal of intrigue on this card and lots of fun waiting to be had. The main card stands as follows:

  • Tony Ferguson vs. Kevin Lee
  • Demetrious Johnson vs. Ray Borg
  • Fabricio Werdum vs. Derrick Lewis
  • Mara Romero Borella vs. Kalindra Faria
  • Beneil Dariush vs. Evan Dunham

Naturally, the Bleacher Report MMA team is here to look over the card and deliver spoilers for Saturday night’s show.

So who will win at UFC 216? And how are they going to pull it off? Read on and find out!

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UFC 216 Betting Preview: Ferguson vs. Lee, Johnson vs. Borg Odds, Analysis

In a championship bout that was originally set to headline UFC 215 in Edmonton, Demetrious “Mighty Mouse” Johnson (26-2-1)—arguably the best pound-for-pound fighter in MMA—will return to the Octagon this Saturday at UFC 216 i…

In a championship bout that was originally set to headline UFC 215 in Edmonton, Demetrious Mighty Mouse Johnson (26-2-1)—arguably the best pound-for-pound fighter in MMA—will return to the Octagon this Saturday at UFC 216 in Las Vegas against Ray Borg (12-2), who had to pull out of the previously scheduled matchup due to illness.

Johnson is a monster -1200 favorite (bet $1200 to win $100), with Borg listed as a +700 underdog (bet $100 to win $700) at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.

However, Johnson-Borg will not be the main event at UFC 216, as that is reserved for the interim lightweight title fight between Tony Ferguson (22-3) and Kevin Lee (16-2). Unlike the co-main event between Johnson and Borg, the Ferguson-Lee bout is expected to be much more competitive.

Ferguson is the -225 favorite, with Lee a +175 underdog on the UFC 216 odds, and both men are riding impressive winning streaks into this event.

Lee has won five in a row, and he is 9-2 in the UFC overall, with his only two losses coming against Leonardo Santos and Al Iaquinta. But Ferguson has been the hottest 155-pound fighter not named Khabib Nurmagomedov, winning nine straight since falling to Michael Johnson via unanimous decision more than five years ago at UFC on FOX 3.

That remains Ferguson’s lone loss in the organization, and he was supposed to fight the unbeaten Nurmagomedov (24-0) for the interim belt at UFC 209 on March 4, but his opponent suffered from an extreme weight cut and was forced to withdraw.

While those winning streaks have earned Lee and Ferguson a title shot, no fighter in the UFC has been better than Johnson over the past five years.

The 5’3″, 125-pounder is 12-0 since walking away with a draw against Ian McCall in his flyweight debut, and he will be looking to tie the promotion’s title defense record versus Borg. Johnson and future Hall of Famer Anderson “Spider” Silva are currently tied for the mark with 10 consecutive title defenses.

Silva has gone 2-4 with one no-contest since seeing his streak end with the first of two losses to former middleweight champ Chris Weidman.

Meanwhile, Borg is the third-ranked contender at 125 behind Joseph Benavidez and Henry Cejudo, two fighters who Johnson has beaten during his streak. The Arizona native has won five of his last six, with his last three wins all going the distance. By contrast, Johnson has two knockouts and four submissions among his past nine.

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UFC 216: Ferguson vs. Lee Odds, Tickets, Predictions and Pre-Weigh-in Hype

At UFC 216, the lightweight division will finally have an active title picture for the first time in the Conor McGregor era. Either Tony Ferguson or Kevin Lee will become the interim title holder in the division that hasn’t seen a championship fight si…

At UFC 216, the lightweight division will finally have an active title picture for the first time in the Conor McGregor era. Either Tony Ferguson or Kevin Lee will become the interim title holder in the division that hasn’t seen a championship fight since The Notorious won the title in November 2016. 

With McGregor temporarily going to the world of boxing for his spectacle against Floyd Mayweather, Jr., the 155-pound division has been put on a hiatus. 

Ferguson and Lee will close out the night at the T-Mobile Arena, and the winner will be first in line to welcome the Irishman back to the Octagon. 

It’s not just a one-fight card, though. The lightweight interim title fight will be preceded by Demetrious Johnson’s historic 11th title defense against Ray Borg in the flyweight division. Former heavyweight champion Fabricio Werdum is also on the card taking on knockout artist Derrick Lewis for a well-rounded trilogy of fun fights. 

Here’s a look at the complete card with the latest odds from OddsShark.

     

Main Card (PPV at 10 p.m. ET)

  • Tony Ferguson (-200) vs. Kevin Lee (+170)
  • Demetrious Johnson (-1200) vs. Ray Borg (+750)
  • Fabricio Werdum (-250) vs. Derrick Lewis (+210)
  • Kalindra Faria (-185) vs. Mara Romero Borella (+165)
  • Beneil Dariush (-230) vs. Evan Dunham (+190)

Prelims (FXX at 8 p.m. ET)

  • Tom Duquesnoy (-165) vs. Cody Stamann (-145)
  • Will Brooks (-340) vs. Nik Lentz (+280)
  • Lando Vannata (-220) vs. Bobby Green (+185)
  • Poliana Botelho (-130) vs. Pearl Gonzalez (+110)

Prelims (UFC Fight Pass at 6:30 p.m. ET)

  • Walt Harris (-300) vs. Mark Godbeer (+250)
  • Magomed Bibulatov (-550) vs. John Moraga (+425)
  • Brad Tavares (-185) vs. Thales Leites (+165)
  • Matt Schnell (-125) vs. Marco Beltran (+105)

      

Fabricio Werdum vs. Derrick Lewis

If there’s an underdog to like on this card it’s Lewis. 

Werdum is a former heavyweight champion with one of the best resumes in the sport, but he’s 40. Coming off of a loss in two of his last three fights, he isn’t the Vai Cavalo that has defeated Mark Hunt, Cain Velasquez, Fedor Emelianenko and Alistair Overeem. 

Werdum’s last loss—majority decision loss to Overeem—might have been controversial, but it wasn’t really a win for either of them. Both looked slower than usual as the 37-year-old Overeem did just enough in the judges’ eyes to get the nod. 

Now, the slower, older version of Werdum will take on a man who has been a finishing machine since 2013.

As Michael Carroll of FightMetric noted, few have more finishes than Lewis in recent UFC history:

That’s bad news for Werdum and a risky pick as a relatively big favorite. According to FightMetric, Vai Cavalo absorbs 2.19 significant strikes per minute. That’s not terrible, but it isn’t an elite defensive heavyweight either. 

Lewis doesn’t need many opportunities to land a big strike to turn out the lights on Werdum. This fight feels much more like a coin flip than the odds indicate. 

Prediction: Lewis via second-round TKO

          

Demetrious Johnson vs. Ray Borg

Johnson rules the flyweight division with a fast iron fist. This matchup will offer a prime example of it. 

Borg is a lightning-fast fighter in his own right. He’s younger, he’s an inch taller and he just defeated a top contender in Jussier Formiga. Still, he’s a plus-750 underdog heading into the night’s co-main event. 

That’s a testament to just how good Johnson is. Mighy Mouse’s combination of speed, technique and Fight IQ make him nearly unbeatable at 125 pounds. 

He has taken on the best there is in his weight class, and now the UFC is left to throw whoever has the smallest amount of momentum to try to take away his belt. Even if Borg is a physically gifted fighter, Johnson’s mastery of all things MMA sets him apart. 

Former opponent Ian McCall broke down just what makes him so difficult to beat. 

“It’s the way he puts everything together. He’s not flawless—no one is flawless—but he’s as close as flawless as possible,” Uncle Creepy said, per Greg Rosenstein of ESPN. “It’s how seamless he makes his technique. That’s the big thing, that’s what people don’t get.”

Borg may have his moments. He might even be a championship-caliber fighter at some point in his career. But that point isn’t now when he’s just 24 years old. 

Expect Johnson to put on a clinic en route to his record-setting 11th consecutive title defense. 

Prediction: Johnson via fourth-round TKO

           

Tony Ferguson vs. Kevin Lee

This isn’t the lightweight title fight that anyone asked for, but it’s the one we need right now. 

The rivalry between Ferguson and Khabib Nurmagomedov has yet to yield an actual fight in the Octagon despite being scheduled on three separate occasions. Instead, a blossoming rivalry between Ferguson and the red-hot Lee will have to suffice. 

It isn’t a bad consolation prize. 

Ferguson is on a nine-fight win streak that extends all the way back to 2013, while the 25-year-old Lee is looking to add to a five-fight win streak that he started with a decision win over Efrain Escudero in April 2016.

Lee’s skills are real. Although his resume isn’t littered with big names, he’s backed up his trash talk with finishes in four of his five wins. The question is whether he’s ready to step up to someone as skilled as Ferguson at this point in his career. 

If he is to prove that he’s ready, dictating where the fight takes place will be huge. As Paul Gift of Bloody Elbow noted, the two like to spend their rounds in much different positions:

“The two fighters certainly take a different approach to positioning with Ferguson spending 3:38 seconds of every round at distance, 18 seconds in the clinch, and 1:04 on the ground, and Lee doing 2:10 on the ground, roughly two minutes at distance, and one minute in the clinch.”

In a nutshell, Lee does his best work when he’s working from top position, and the clinch is a way for him to ultimately get to that position. However, Ferguson is going to work to keep the fight standing and at a distance. 

El Cucuy has some of the best overall striking in the division and a gas tank that never hits “E.” If Lee can wrestle him to the ground, he isn’t the best defensive grappler. Taking Ferguson down is a very real possibility, too. Edson Barbosa did it twice, and he’s as far removed from being a wrestler as a mixed martial artist can be. 

Lee will get Ferguson into some compromising situations and even win some rounds, but ultimately Ferguson’s better experience will win out as he sets up a potential fight with either his rival in Nurmagomedov or a championship showdown with Conor McGregor

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Diaz vs. McGregor III Odds: Betting Lines Opened for Potential Trilogy Fight

Who knows when Conor McGregor (21-3) will enter the UFC’s Octagon again, whether it will be at the end of 2017 or some time in 2018. However, that has not stopped speculation of who McGregor will fight next, and a third bout against Nate Diaz (19-11) s…

Who knows when Conor McGregor (21-3) will enter the UFC’s Octagon again, whether it will be at the end of 2017 or some time in 2018. However, that has not stopped speculation of who McGregor will fight next, and a third bout against Nate Diaz (19-11) seems to make the most sense.

The pair split two previous meetings last year, and McGregor is listed as a -250 favorite (bet $250 to win $100) in a potential trilogy fight while Diaz is a +190 underdog (bet $100 to win $190) at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.

In the latest matchup at UFC 202 last August 20 in Las Vegas, Nevada, McGregor earned a majority decision in one of the most exciting bouts the organization has ever seen. McGregor had lost the first meeting with Diaz via second-round rear-naked choke submission a little more than five months earlier at UFC 196 in his welterweight debut.

Both previous bouts took place at 170 pounds, and since then McGregor won the UFC lightweight title with a second-round TKO of former champion Eddie Alvarez before getting knocked out himself by Floyd Mayweather in his professional boxing debut on August 26.

There is no timetable for McGregor‘s return, as he made more money fighting Mayweather than he did in his entire MMA career going into that bout.

While other high-profile opponents like Georges St-Pierre and Khabib Nurmagomedov could be next for McGregor, they also have work to do in order for that to happen.

St-Pierre is fighting middleweight champ Michael Bisping at UFC 217 on November 4 after sitting out for nearly four years. Nurmagomedov missed an opportunity to fight for the interim lightweight title at UFC 209 back on March 4 because he suffered complications trying to make weight. Instead, his opponent that night Tony Ferguson will take on Kevin Lee at UFC 216 this Saturday for the 155-pound championship.

Ferguson, Lee or current featherweight champ Max Holloway are other possibilities if McGregor wants to get either of the belts back that he previously earned, becoming the first UFC fighter ever to hold two at the same time. Regardless, the brash Irishman is in a great position as the biggest name in MMA and will be able to fight whoever he wants.

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Fighter Badly Misses Weight at UFC Japan Weigh-Ins, Stumbles off Scale

Another day, another controversial UFC weigh-in.
Ahead of the promotion’s most recent attendance in Japan, to be headlined by a fairly uninteresting fight between Ovince Saint Preux and a returning Yushin Okami, drama unfolded on the scale.

Feat…

Another day, another controversial UFC weigh-in.

Ahead of the promotion’s most recent attendance in Japan, to be headlined by a fairly uninteresting fight between Ovince Saint Preux and a returning Yushin Okami, drama unfolded on the scale.

Featherweight Mizuto Hirota, 1-3-1 in the UFC, arrived as the last to weigh in among athletes slated for the card and looked off from the moment he appeared from behind the curtain. Swaying slightly as he met the public, he shuffled to the scale and climbed on.

150 pounds.

It was an egregious miss in its own right, four pounds above the non-title featherweight limit, but it got worse from there.

Hirota, badly drained and looking a little aloof, resignedly took a second to ponder his miss before making a move to exit the scale. When he did, he quite evidently became temporarily overwhelmed and stumbled from the scale, saved from falling only by a pair of UFC overseers who caught him.

The whole scene was highly disconcerting for anyone who has followed the raging debate surrounding weight cutting in MMA over the years.

Despite the best efforts of commissions around North America, and of the UFC when governing its own events abroad, it continually appears as though the very sport itself is shuffling towards some extreme fate involving a fighter who has endured a bad weight cut.

Hirota is the most recent example, coming but a few weeks after Ray Borg was pulled from a title fight due to complications arising during his weight cut and after superstar Paige VanZant announced moving up in weight after passing out cutting to 115 pounds. 

Adding insult to injury, Hirota will forfeit 30 percent of his purse to his opponent. Check out video of his weigh-in below.

 

Follow me on Twitter @matthewjryder!

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UFC Fight Night 117 Preview: 3 Fights You Can’t Miss from Japan Card

I come before you today not to sell snake oil. UFC Fight Night 117 is not a good card. 
The card, which happens from the venerated Saitama Super Arena in Japan and airs Friday night in the United States, lost what meager shine it had when headline…

I come before you today not to sell snake oil. UFC Fight Night 117 is not a good card. 

The card, which happens from the venerated Saitama Super Arena in Japan and airs Friday night in the United States, lost what meager shine it had when headliner Mauricio “Shogun” Rua withdrew because of—and you better sit down—a knee injury.

Now aging grinder Yushin Okami, who wasn’t on the UFC roster one day before this call-up, will move up to light heavyweight to face Ovince Saint Preux.

Is this card truly a must-watch? It would be disingenuous or just downright strange to say yes. Nevertheless, there are always fights worth watching on any big MMA card. Let’s take a look now at three fights to check out when the action begins on FXX, which you may know as the channel that usually plays The Simpsons on a loop.

    

Featherweight

Teruto Ishihara (9-4-2) vs Rolando Dy (8-5-1)

Odds (courtesy of OddsShark): Ishihara -169

Airs on: FXX

Ishihara is known as much for girl-chasing (warning: NSFW) as he is for his style in the cage, but both are pretty flamboyant. He’s a headhunter with the power to put the theory into practice, a southpaw who rode a devastating left hook to eight knockout wins in his nine-win pro career.

Dy is a total unknown to the vast majority of fight fans; you may recall his violent TKO loss to Alex Caceres in his recent UFC debut. He’ll probably be looking to stand with Ishihara, taking an icy tactical approach to counter the fire of the Japanese showman. Things could get violent.

     

Light Heavyweight

Gokhan Saki (0-1-0) vs Henrique da Silva (12-3)

Odds: Saki -154

Airs on: FXX

As evidenced by the aforementioned main event, the 205-pound division needs itself some assistance. Is Saki the guy to get it done?

Saki is an elite pro kickboxer making the transition to MMA. That’s a dangerous gambit, but some have succeeded. In Saki’s UFC debut, Silva represents a fine bit of matchmaking. He is a beatable opponent, but he has enough wrestling and striking power to force Saki to concentrate and fight a complete MMA fight. It is entirely possible that Silva wins this fight. 

But for the sake of the UFC’s most moribund division—not to mention your own entertainment quotient—Saki is the obvious rooting interest.

     

Strawweight

Claudia Gadelha (15-2) vs Jessica Andrade (16-6)

Odds: Gadelha -286

Airs on: FXX

The co-main event is the unadulterated best fight on this card.

Gadelha is one of the best female fighters in the world and would be even more famous if she could have managed to get over the to-date insurmountable wall that is the great Joanna Jedrzejczyk. 

As it is, though, she’s plenty formidable on her own, with strength to burn and a ground game without a lot of equals. 

Andrade’s game has a similar balance, with a power grappling game that could at least hold Gadelha’s at bay. On top of that, though, she’s extremely aggressive and very active on the feet, bursting forward with high-volume punch combinations.

Andrade is one of those fighters who is dangerous to any opponent. She may not win, but she can. Gadelha will have to stay within herself, avoid lengthy striking exchanges (and the damage they can easily inflict when you’re trading with Andrade) and work takedowns for top control and ground-and-pound.

No matter who comes out on top, this is a big fight and it will be fun to watch.

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