Click here to view the embedded video.
See previous Articles MMA Betting Strategies I and II for reference……. After 1 night of posted picks here on MMA Fix, the Crisper wound up 2-1, with wins on Nate Diaz (+175 when locked in,.
After 1 night of posted picks here on MMA Fix, the Crisper wound up 2-1, with wins on Nate Diaz (+175 when locked in, closed at +155) and Alan Belcher (+220 when locked in, closed at +160). My posted loser was Josh Koschek (-125 when locked in, closed at +140, thought we might get a split decision on this closely contested battle). Because money management has taught me over the years to play “to win 1 unit” on favorites and “to risk ½ unit” on dogs, I wound up + .725 units, for another night of profits!!
The Crisper was a little nervous to post both of his favorite picks, as he didn’t want to have a losing night for all MMA Fixers out there on the first night of posted picks (especially since Dodson was -500). From now on all FAVORITE FAVORITES and at least 1 Dog will be posted each night of fights….all for FREE of course!
Getting back to the action on Saturday, impressive performances were turned in by 3 fighters in particular.
Alan Belcher – how did he keep slipping out of all those leg locks??? Seriously it must be scary when a little Tasmanian Devil lookin’ Jiu Jitsu black belt grabs your foot, then turns on it so you can’t see what’s going on under there….eeesh! Belcher is for real…wondering who he will be paired up with next?
Lavar “Big” Johnson – This is one “Big”, Bad Dude. I counted 38 full out roundhouses to the head of Pat Barry before he finally fell…not bad for a “Big” man. His conditioning is excellent for a heavyweight…and he is definitely “BIG”. One has to wonder if his nickname has any dual meaning?
Nate Diaz – pure domination of a very good opponent. Used his reach and began taunting Miller before literally picking him apart with precision striking. Title fight here he comes.
Closing Note – For all of us MMA junkies out there, how great was it to not have to cough up $60 bucks for this great night of action? By the way, why do they even offer the non-HD version of these fights for $49.95? I mean seriously…NON-HD? What’s the point?
Check back this weekend for the Crisper’s picks for Tuesday’s UFC on Fuel card.
No matter how much you read up on all of these fighters, or how sure you are that one guy is that much better than his opponent, there is virtually always one or more big.
No matter how much you read up on all of these fighters, or how sure you are that one guy is that much better than his opponent, there is virtually always one or more big upset on each fight card. MMA betting is a fickle game. In my opinion, there is no other sport in the world where you can find as much value as you can in MMA lines. Sure, there’s the well known and hyped, huge favorites (-400 or higher) that are pretty sure things.
However, there are also a few fights each night where a heavy favorite is basically unproven, or facing a tough style matchup. How some of these fighters warrant laying 3 to 1 odds when they haven’t beaten any worthy opponents, or if we know nothing about their opponent that night, who could be a VERY dangerous fighter, is beyond me. That is where my strategy of picking one of these “Dog” fights on each card has padded my bankroll over the years.
On a given night of say 10 fights, I like to do my due diligence on each fighter individually, then see how they match up with their opponent. I will then usually pick my three FAVORITE FAVORITES. In other words, the three favorites I like the most I lock in, hoping to go 3-0, 2-1 at worst. Then, during the course of my research I will find value in 2 or 3 Dogs. From there I will narrow it down to the best “Dog of the Night”, and put 1/2 a unit on it, so as to not blow the entire nights winnings. Because the odds on these Dogs are usually +150 or better (sometimes as high as +350), we can see huge profits from these Dog wagers.
Let’s take UFC on Fox Saturday night. Of the big Dogs, my pick to pull off the upset is Alan Belcher (16-5). Belcher is 6’2″, vs. the 5’8″ submission specialist Rousimar Palhares (23-3). Belcher has the experience to understand that if this fight goes to the ground, he will be tapping faster than Spider in Goodfellas when Tommy shoots him in the foot.
The key to this fight for Belcher will be to stay on his feet and use his 4 inch reach advantage to keep Palhares away from him, while scoring points and winning each round. Belcher’s conditioning is superior, and if he can get the fight into the 3rd when both fighters will be lathered up and “slippery when wet,” the Brazilian Jiu Jitsu specialist will be less dangerous with his leg lock attempts. Belcher may be able to finish him in the 3rd, but if I were in his corner I would advise him to keep his distance and go for the 29-28 decision, and pad our bankrolls at +220.
-The Cookie Crisper
Click here to view the embedded video.
Ok, so I am an MMA betting junkie. I love the instant gratification of winning money in just a few seconds, as it occurs routinely during the furious exchange between two equally weighted, haymaker throwing.
Ok, so I am an MMA betting junkie. I love the instant gratification of winning money in just a few seconds, as it occurs routinely during the furious exchange between two equally weighted, haymaker throwing men, both trained for a single purpose: to seek and destroy. It happens so fast, in some cases, that I can’t even keep up with the fights on my online sportsbook. By the time one fight finishes, the next fight is off the board.
I am always looking for an advantage in one or two fights per night, as I feel that several of the odds are miscalculated because of misguided public perception. But, if you are diligent with your research and disciplined with your approach, you can consistently find a fight or two on each card that are fairly easy to handicap.
Take the upcoming UFC on Fox which takes place May 5th
UFC ON FOX 3- LIGHTWEIGHT BOUT Barry vs. Johnson (5/5/12)
Jim Miller -210
Nate Diaz +175
UFC ON FOX 3- LIGHTWEIGHT BOUT Koscheck vs. Hendricks (5/5/12)
Josh Koscheck -125
Johny Hendricks -105
It appears to me that of the fights with early odds, Nate Diaz has the best chance to pull the upset. Lavar “Big” Johnson has been impressive, but his inexperience should prove to be too much to overcome vs. the explosive Pat Barry. Diaz, on the other hand, is seasoned enough to pull out a “W”, and his camp will have him ready. Beware Jim Miller….
Also, I see a lot of value in Josh Koscheck only laying -125. He is the better athlete, and has faced tougher competition throughout his career. Koscheck could get caught, as his opponent is dangerous, but I see him winning here 2 rounds to 1 for a unanimous decision. Add money to the bankroll by playing Koscheck on May 5th. Check back next week for a breakdown and best bets of the other fights on the UFC on Fox 3.
Hector Lombard now has an opponent for his Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) debut — none other than the “All American” war hero himself, Brian Stann. The bout was confirmed on Twitter by promotion President Dana.
Hector Lombard now has an opponent for his Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) debut — none other than the “All American” war hero himself, Brian Stann.
The bout was confirmed on Twitter by promotion President Dana White today and rumors have it that the contest will take place at UFC on Fox 4 on Sat., Aug. 4, 2012, at the Staples Center in Los Angeles, California.
Lombard’s only two losses have come by unanimous decision to Gegard Mousasi and Akihiro Gono in fights that took place nearly six years ago. He has 24 finishes, including 17 (T)KO stoppages in 31 wins.
He’s been called everything from professional can-crusher to top five middleweight in the world. Now we get to find out first hand if he can really swim with the sharks.
Stann, one of many names floated for “Shango’s” Octagon debut, is one of the very best 185-pound fighters the world’s largest fight promotion has to offer. He was last seen destroying Alessio Sakara via first round, ground-n-pound knockout in Stockholm, Sweden, at the UFC on FUEL TV 2 event this past April 14.
Prior to that he was 3-1 in his last four. His only defeat came at the hands of top middleweight title contender Chael Sonnen.
Really, this is about as tough a test as the company could find for Lombard. Anyone think he’s in for a long night? Or will he shock the world and send the super soldier back to the loser’s line?
UFC on Fox 4 is set for the Staples Center in Los Angeles, Calif., and goes down on Sat., Aug. 4, 2012. Lombard vs. Stann has yet to be officially confirmed and as of yet is the only bout rumored for the card at this time.