UFC on Fuel TV 3 – The Crisper’s Betting Recap

Man that Korean Zombie really f’d up what was looking like a great betting night in the UFC. Here is a recap of the bets and results: TJ Grant (-460) – This one was like.

Man that Korean Zombie really f’d up what was looking like a great betting night in the UFC. Here is a recap of the bets and results:

TJ Grant (-460) – This one was like takin candy from a baby ….Grant took control from the onset and dominated all phases. It’s nice when you’re laying so much to never really feel nervous at any point during the fight. PUT ONE IN THE COOKIE JAR!….. + 1 unit.

Donald Cerrone (-250)– Cowboy uses his reach advantage to completely outclass a good fighter in Lil Heathen Stephens. Stephens couldn’t even play dead in a western on this night. He had no chance and Cerrone never let him breath, give the Crisper another one!…… + 2 units.

Jorge Lopez (+110) – Just read Alan Wells’ recap on this fight in UFC on Fuel Random Thoughts. We got SCREWED by the judges and I am none to happy about it. Cost us money. Bullshit. Anyway….take a half a unit and stick it up the judges asses……+1.5 units

Dustin Poirier (-325) – All I can say is, when you lay on a big favorite and he gets his ass kicked, for the betting man it feels like getting your nuts kicked in. Korean Zombie took it to our boy, and there was really never a doubt. It looked like Poirier started to turn a corner in the 3rd by establishing his jab, but Zombie turned the tables and finished him off. That result completely ruined our night giving back 3.25 units……-1.75 units

This brings our total on posted picks to -1.025 units. Check back this weekend for Crisper Picks on Strikeforce Saturday night May 19th!

UFC on Fuel TV 3- Pre-Fight Analysis Part IV (Igor Pokrajac (24-8) vs. Fabio Maldonado (18-4)

Igor Pokrajac (24-8) vs. Fabio Maldonado (18-4) This fight forecasts to be a slugfest between two light heavyweights who both have knockout power. Pokrajac showed his power in his last fight with an impressive first.

Igor Pokrajac (24-8) vs. Fabio Maldonado (18-4)

This fight forecasts to be a slugfest between two light heavyweights who both have knockout power. Pokrajac showed his power in his last fight with an impressive first round KO win over Krzysztof Soszynski. Soszynski has been a durable fighter throughout his career so finishing him in under a minute showed a lot from Pokrajac. But he will face a different challenge in Maldonado who has just as many fights and a better record in boxing than he does in MMA. Maldonado lost a close fight with Kyle Kingsbury in has last UFC appearance after defeating James McSweeney in his debut. Even in the loss, Maldonado did serious damage to Kingsbury and one wonders how smart it would be for Pokrajac to stand and test his boxing.

Pokrajac would be best served to try to put Maldonado on his back and control him. Maldonado has a decent ground game but Pokrajac is definitely capable of grounding him with his wrestling and outgrappling him from there if he chooses to do so. Based on Pokrajac’s history, it seems likely that he will instead choose to stand and try to outstrike the man with a professional boxing background.

Maldonado is the favorite at -170 with Pokrajac the underdog at +140. The line is set appropriately considering that Pokrajac could win this fight if he employs the correct gameplan. But the bookmakers expect Pokrajac to stand as well and if he does, Maldonado should be able to outbox him to a decision.

Tom Lawlor (7-4) vs. Jason McDonald (25-15)

The headline fight has title implications. The fight between Cerrone and Stephens features two dynamic strikers. Amir Sadollah is an Ultimate Fighter winner looking to stay above water. But this fight has the potential to steal the show. Tom Lawlor and Jason MacDonald both give full effort to finish the fight with every technique.

MacDonald has been fighting professionally since 1999. He has seen the sport grow from a niche sport struggling to survive on PPV to a mainstream juggernaut with featured fights airing in primetime on network television. He can do everything. He isn’t the best in the world at anything but he will compete wherever the fight goes and that’s exactly what he’ll have to do in this fight because his opponent will determine where this fight takes place. Lawlor’s wrestling is the most singularly dominant aspect of either fighter’s game and he will have the choice of whether he wants to stand and strike with MacDonald or take him down and grapple. He will be better served to keep the fight standing as he has a clear advantage on the feet. Lawlor can finish with his hands and he should be able to outbox MacDonald. If he decides to play the ground game, things could get interesting. MacDonald is an explosive grappler who goes for the finish the whole time he’s on the ground. Lawlor’s wrestling is probably superior to MacDonald’s submission game but it would be fun to see them battle for position. If they go to the ground, we could see some fast transitions and entertaining scrambles.

Lawlor is the favorite at -205 with MacDonald the underdog at +165. Lawlor has the better all around game and represents a newer wave of of mixed martial artists who built on the foundation laid by fighters like MacDonald. I expect Lawlor to win by keeping the fight standing and outstriking his veteran opponent but if they decide to entertain us and roll for a while, anything can happen.

-Alan Wells

UFC on Fuel TV 3- Pre Fight Analysis Part III (Amir Sadollah (5-3) vs Jorge Lopez (11-2)

Amir Sadollah (5-3) vs Jorge Lopez (11-2) Amir Sadollah is well-known to MMA fans from his surprising run to win season seven of the The Ultimate Fighter. His win over C.B. Dolloway in the finale.

Amir Sadollah (5-3) vs Jorge Lopez (11-2)

Amir Sadollah is well-known to MMA fans from his surprising run to win season seven of the The Ultimate Fighter. His win over C.B. Dolloway in the finale was his first professional fight and all eight of his fights have come in the UFC. Since his win, he has struggled with injuries and lost every time he has been given a chance to step up in competition. No one would ever accuse the UFC of poor marketing strategy and they do a great job of getting the most out of the fighters who win on their reality show. Call it loyalty or call it branding but TUF winners generally stick around in the UFC. But another loss and an overall record of five wins and four losses would make it difficult for the UFC to continue giving Sadollah fights with so much talent on the roster at 170 pounds.

Enter Jorge Lopez. Lopez was not overly impressive in his first UFC fight though he did show some improvement toward the end of the fight. He doesn’t offer anything outstanding to trouble Sadollah and Sadollah should have the advantage everywhere in this fight. He has the ability to submit Lopez if Lopez takes him down and he’ll have an advantage standing that will be accentuated in the clinch. Sadollah’s knees are his most effective strikes and he will look to clinch with Lopez and unleash from there.

Sadollah is favored in the books at -200 with Lopez coming in at +160. Sadollah should be able to win this fight and a win would maintain his status as a viable commodity in the UFC. He should be looking to finish the fight and not just coast to a decision. A finish or at least a dominant decision would be a nice step in the right direction and could be a sign that he has fully recovered from all his injuries and is ready to fulfill the potential he showed when he originally burst onto the MMA scene.

Yves Jabouin (17-7) vs. Jeff Hougland (10-4)

This fight will feature a traditional MMA script. Jabouin is the striker with a well-rounded muay thai attack and he will do his best to keep the fight on the feet. Hougland is the grappler whose striking will serve solely to keep Jabouin honest and set up takedown attempts. On the surface, this looks like a bit of a mismatch with Jabouin being a clear favorite. But all of Hougland’s losses came in his first five fights and he won his UFC debut in a solid if not exciting decision over Donny Walker.

Jabouin has not achieved the level of success some predicted when he first entered the WEC. His muay thai is on point technically but he has not shown an ability to finish high level competition. He has split his last six fights and won his last two via split decision. His most recent fight against Wilel Watson was especially close and could have easily been scored a loss. If he wants to take the next step and be considered a major threat in the 135 pound division, he needs to make a statement against Hougland.

But it won’t be easy as Hougland will come in looking to increase his status and earn a huge victory for his career. To step up and take a fight as a replacement and earn a victory would certainly be impressive. To do that, he will need to get the fight to the ground. If he does, he has the submission skill to finish the fight. Jabouin has good balance and takedown defense but he can be dragged to the mat. Whether or not Hougland will be able to do so could be the determining factor in the fight.

Jabouin is heavily favored at -280 with Hougland at +220. One would have a difficult time finding someone willing to pick Hougland and I won’t go that far but Jabouin has not been overly impressive in his last few fights. Because of that, Jabouin should come out and look to finish a technically overmatched opponent in the first round. But if he is overconfident or finds himself playing the submission game with Hougland, we could see an upset. That said, I expect Jabouin to do his job and
dispatch Hougland quickly and impressively.

-Alan Wells

MMA Betting Strategies Part II- Always Go With At Least 1 “Dog of the Night”

No matter how much you read up on all of these fighters, or how sure you are that one guy is that much better than his opponent, there is virtually always one or more big.

No matter how much you read up on all of these fighters, or how sure you are that one guy is that much better than his opponent, there is virtually always one or more big upset on each fight card. MMA betting is a fickle game. In my opinion, there is no other sport in the world where you can find as much value as you can in MMA lines. Sure, there’s the well known and hyped, huge favorites (-400 or higher) that are pretty sure things.

However, there are also a few fights each night where a heavy favorite is basically unproven, or facing a tough style matchup. How some of these fighters warrant laying 3 to 1 odds when they haven’t beaten any worthy opponents, or if we know nothing about their opponent that night, who could be a VERY dangerous fighter, is beyond me. That is where my strategy of picking one of these “Dog” fights on each card has padded my bankroll over the years.

On a given night of say 10 fights, I like to do my due diligence on each fighter individually, then see how they match up with their opponent. I will then usually pick my three FAVORITE FAVORITES. In other words, the three favorites I like the most I lock in, hoping to go 3-0, 2-1 at worst. Then, during the course of my research I will find value in 2 or 3 Dogs. From there I will narrow it down to the best “Dog of the Night”, and put 1/2 a unit on it, so as to not blow the entire nights winnings. Because the odds on these Dogs are usually +150 or better (sometimes as high as +350), we can see huge profits from these Dog wagers.

Let’s take UFC on Fox Saturday night. Of the big Dogs, my pick to pull off the upset is Alan Belcher (16-5). Belcher is 6’2″, vs. the 5’8″ submission specialist Rousimar Palhares (23-3). Belcher has the experience to understand that if this fight goes to the ground, he will be tapping faster than Spider in Goodfellas when Tommy shoots him in the foot.

The key to this fight for Belcher will be to stay on his feet and use his 4 inch reach advantage to keep Palhares away from him, while scoring points and winning each round. Belcher’s conditioning is superior, and if he can get the fight into the 3rd when both fighters will be lathered up and “slippery when wet,” the Brazilian Jiu Jitsu specialist will be less dangerous with his leg lock attempts. Belcher may be able to finish him in the 3rd, but if I were in his corner I would advise him to keep his distance and go for the 29-28 decision, and pad our bankrolls at +220.

-The Cookie Crisper

Attention Gamblers: Junior Dos Santos Is a Slight Favorite Over Cain Velasquez

Junior Dos Santos Cain Velasquez UFC 131
(I’m only giving this face-off a 6 out of 10, since Velasquez didn’t have his championship belt with him, and his teammates weren’t in the background throwing middle-fingers at the crowd. Props: UFC.com)

With Cain Velasquez‘s shoulder injury taking him out of action for all of 2011 (so far), Junior Dos Santos was forced to keep busy with a coaching gig on The Ultimate Fighter and a #1 contender fight against Brock Lesnar Shane Carwin. Any number of misfortunes could have befallen Cigano in the interim, but he managed to keep his spot at the front of the line, and will face Velasquez later this year in the heavyweight title fight that should have happened all along. (By the way, Velasquez’s return on October 8th in Houston isn’t guaranteed yet, due to his health status.)

Between Velasquez’s long injury layoff and Junior’s outstanding body of work in the UFC — culminating with a three-round drubbing of Shane Carwin on Saturday that saw JDS out-strike and then out-wrestle Carwin — the oddsmakers are looking very kindly upon the Brazilian challenger. At this point, Dos Santos is a -120 favorite in the fight, compared to Velasquez at -110.

Junior Dos Santos Cain Velasquez UFC 131
(I’m only giving this face-off a 6 out of 10, since Velasquez didn’t have his championship belt with him, and his teammates weren’t in the background throwing middle-fingers at the crowd. Props: UFC.com)

With Cain Velasquez‘s shoulder injury taking him out of action for all of 2011 (so far), Junior Dos Santos was forced to keep busy with a coaching gig on The Ultimate Fighter and a #1 contender fight against Brock Lesnar Shane Carwin. Any number of misfortunes could have befallen Cigano in the interim, but he managed to keep his spot at the front of the line, and will face Velasquez later this year in the heavyweight title fight that should have happened all along. (By the way, Velasquez’s return on October 8th in Houston isn’t guaranteed yet, due to his health status.)

Between Velasquez’s long injury layoff and Junior’s outstanding body of work in the UFC — culminating with a three-round drubbing of Shane Carwin on Saturday that saw JDS out-strike and then out-wrestle Carwin — the oddsmakers are looking very kindly upon the Brazilian challenger. At this point, Dos Santos is a -120 favorite in the fight, compared to Velasquez at -110.

The line is so close that you won’t get rich betting on Velasquez even though he’s technically the underdog. (For the unfamiliar, those “-” numbers are the amount of dollars you’d have to risk to bring home a $100 profit.) But it says a lot about the perception of where these guys stand in relation to each other. The champion has been out of sight, and thus, out of mind. And again, Dos Santos’s wrestling defense and late slam-takedowns against Carwin demonstrated that he’s more than just a pair of hands, and can beat a wrestler at his own game. Will Velasquez still be able to threaten JDS in that area? Because I’d give the striking edge to Dos Santos, easily.

In a related story, Michael Bisping is more than a 2-to-1 favorite over Jason Miller at the moment. Anybody think they can double their money on Mayhem?