Strikeforce – Miami takes place this Saturday, January 30th in…well you don’t need me to tell you where it’s at now do you? Two belts will be on the line this weekend, as Nick Diaz takes on DREAM’s Marius Zaromskis for the vacant Strikeforce Welterweight belt and Cristiane “Cyborg” Santos defends her Strikeforce Women’s Middleweight belt against Marloes Coenen. Strikeforce – Miami will also mark the Strikeforce debut for pro wrestling star Bobby Lashley and NFL standout Herschel Walker. Should be an interesting night of fights (and entertainment).
As per the future format of MMAMoneyLine’s predictions, I will only cover the fights that have betting value. This card in particular has a few live dogs to discuss. Without further adeiu, here are my betting recommendations and fight analysis for Strikeforce – Miami.
Nick Diaz vs. Marius Zaromskis
Since this is Marius Zaromskis‘ first appearance stateside, not many casual fans know who he is. Not many people at all, hardcore fans alike, knew who he was before his 2009 DREAM Welterweight Grand Prix (and subsequent DREAM Welterweight) championship. “The Whitemare” has exploded on the international MMA scene with a Cro Cop-esque highlight reel of head kick knockouts, and he will no doubt be looking to headhunt savvy vet Nick Diaz.
Everyone knows the elder Diaz’s MO: punches in bunches, never ending cardio and world class jits. He made Scott Smith look really, really bad in his last fight with his unorthodox boxing. Diaz is a very well rounded fighter who would be best served using his boxing to set up a takedown and utilizing his superior matwork.
The question is whether Nick Diaz will go for the takedown or stand and bang with Zaromskis. Many people think Diaz is going to run away with this fight, no matter where it goes. I am opposed to this view.
Yes, if Diaz gets Zaromskis to the mat and keeps him there, the odds dramatically tilt in his favor. However, Diaz is far from the best wrestler in MMA…wrestling is probably his weakest point. He had a hell of a time getting KJ Noons down, and Karl doesn’t exactly come from a world class wrestling background. Diaz tends to telegraph his shots, and took a face-slicing knee against Noons because of it.
I believe Diaz has a hard time taking The Whitemare to the mat and takes a lot of punishment trying. As Tomas Rios pointed out, Diaz’s poor striking defense will leave him very vulnerable to a more powerful Zaromskis. Marius Zaromskis isn’t a brawler like Smith, and he will capitalize on Diaz’s shortcomings in impressive fashion. That head kick is going to get through, and when it does…it’s over.
My pick: Marius Zaromskis via TKO in the 2nd
Betting play: I liked Zaromskis when his odds came out at +160 and like him even more now. This fight is very close to a coin flip in my mind taking into account Diaz’ grappling advantage…maybe giving Diaz a slight edge overall. With that being said, 5Dimes has Zaromskis at +230, a 30% chance of winning. Expect this fight to be like Diaz/Noons, but more brutal. MMAMoneyLine recommends a moderate play on the underdog Zaromskis.
Melvin Manhoef vs. Robbie Lawler
Let me start of by saying this entire fight hinges on Lawler’s gameplan. I’m far from the first guy that is saying that…it’s pretty much the consensus opinion across the board. Robbie Lawler is a very tough guy with dynamite in his hands, but Melvin Manhoef’s striking power is otherworldly. When you knock out Mark Hunt, they should give you a black belt in every striking discipline.
Robbie Lawler has said in some interviews that he plans on standing with Manhoef, while he’s stated in other interviews he plans on exploiting Melvin’s weaknesses. Whether this is gamesmanship or not, we will see this weekend. If Lawler stands with Manhoef, he will get knocked out. If he can take Manhoef down, where Melvin has barely any skill, Lawler wins this fight handily. This fight is as close to 50/50 as it gets…and you as a bettor have to decide whether Lawler is going to stick to an effective gameplan or rise to the challenge of a world class striker.
My pick: Melvin Manhoef via KO in the 1st
Betting play: Since every fight starts standing, I give Melvin the nod here. However, there is value on both fighters. Lawler’s best odds are +165 at 5Dimes, and Manhoef’s are -185 at SportBet and BetUS. I’m personally not betting on this fight, but I can see how others would want to. A Manhoef bet could turn out to be a very good anchor to cover your underdog plays, while a small Lawler bet could make you some money as well.
Herschel Walker vs. Greg Nagy
I know very little about Greg Nagy, and even less about Herschel Walker…the MMA fighter anyway. Both guys come from competitive athletic backgrounds, with Nagy being a standout high school football and hockey player and Walker having a long and impressive stint in the National Football League. Obviously, Walker has the more documented athletic prowess with his high profile NFL career, but Nagy has more MMA experience (albeit 2 fights).
Walker has been training with some of the best MMA has to offer, and by all accounts is taking it very seriously. He also has a background in Taekwondo. However, TKD hasn’t historically translated very well to MMA…as I’m sure we’ve all hear Joe Rogan say more than once. One also has to question his durability at 47.
When these odds came out, I was stunned. I fully expected them to be even or close to it. To say Herschel Walker, with no MMA experience, is a -350 favorite against someone who has actually has two pro fights is completely ludicrous. Now, Greg Nagy was brought in to lose…we all know that. Assuming this fight isn’t fixed, you almost have to put a bet on Greg Nagy here…no matter his skill set.
My pick: Greg Nagy via submission in the second
Betting play: Please put a bet on Greg Nagy. At 5Dimes, they’re giving him a 26% (+290) chance to win against a 47 year old with no MMA experience.
MMAMoneyLine Official Picks:
Zaromskis/TKO/2
Santos/TKO/1
Manhoef/KO/1
Lashley/TKO/1
Nagy/SUB/2
Hieron/UD
MMAMoneyLine Official Wagers (1 unit = 2% of bankroll):
Zaromskis – 1 u at +230
Nagy – .2 u at +290