February 6th Live on PPV
UFC 109 Main Card
Randy Couture vs Mark Coleman
As good as Coleman was, he is an incredibly slower version of himself. He beat Stephan Bonner on heart and a few takedowns. If Randy comes out anywhere near as good as he did in the Lesnar and Nogeuria fights, which both he lost, he should easily beat Coleman. Coleman, however, is probably training for this fight like he never has before. I don’t know this for sure, but always showed in Coleman’s fights that he never did proper modern training pre-fight. His cardio always fell short and his skillset never improved. Randy on the other hand has stair stepped upwards in the skill level as well as overall cardio.
Being a -550 favorite is a different story. I don’t love the odds for this one, because Couture is always susceptible to a KO, but I don’t think Coleman possesses that threat.
I’m going to be blown away if Coleman wins this fight. I like Randy to win and Bodog has Couture @ -550
Nate Marquardt vs Chael Sonnen
I understand the odds here. I’m surprised they are not higher. Sonnen is a great overall fighter with a wrestler’s specialty, while Marquardt has speedily evolved into an elite complete fighter. Ever since his loss to Anderson Silva, its obvious he has been driven to push every bit of his already high skillset. Before the Anderson Silva Marquardt fought slower and just all around different.
Marquardt will be too much in this fight and will win.
I like Marquardt here to win and Bodog has Marquardt @ -525
Mike Swick vs Paulo Thiago
I think the difference in this fight is going to be the size and strength of Mike Swick. Thiago is a great overall fighter who a few fights ago KO’d Swick’s teammate Josh Koshcheck.
Strengths will reach and speed for Swick while the strengths for Thiago will be the ground game and submissions.
I don’t see how Swick loses this fight, so I lean that way.
Intertops has Swick @ -227
Demian Maia vs Dan Miller
As much of a fan I am of Dan Miller, I don’t know what he brings to this fight that Demian Maia can’t fend off. For sure, Dan Miller is the better striker. However, is he good enough to stop Demian Maia with strikes?
If Dan Miller can outstrike Maia, this fight is going to a decision and based on how the ground fighting is scored in the UFC, this puts Miller in the advantage.
Most likely neither fighter is going to submit the other due to their blackbelts in jiu-jitsu (Miller’s is fresh black color, and Maia’s is grey). Maia’s mma jiu-jitsu has shown to be absolutely the best in the Octagon thus far.
Based on the way ground game is scored, and Miller’s better stand up fighting experience, I like Dan Miller here in the underdog spot.
Bodog has Miller as +325 underdog
Matt Serra vs Frank Trigg
I definitely would like to see Serra win this fight. If you haven’t seen his pre-fight UFC blogs on YouTube they are really funny. “Hey Longo! Where’s the TP buddy?”
If Trigg is going to win this fight its going to be with ground control. Serra isn’t going to be able to take Trigg down without jumping guard and this fight is likely going to decision.
Serra can win via a submissions, but it won’t be from the bottom.
In reality this fight is likely to go to a decision. Trigg doesn’t have the weapons to take Serra out, but Serra does have the weapons to take Trigg out.
Matt Serra is favored at Bodog @ -155, and I lean that way
UFC 109 Preliminary Card
Mac Danzig vs Justin Buchholz
Too much wrestling in Danzig’s corner and top game control, but Buchholz has a puncher’s chance.
Melvin Guillard vs Ronnys Torres
Phillipe Nover vs Rob Emerson
Seems like this is a great matchup. After Emerson’s last few fights, he has shown unbelieveable heart and overall improvement that has been blatantly noticeable even to the untrained eye.
Nover looked best on the TUF show, but hasn’t tasted victory since. Emerson is not the guy you want to go against when you’re up against the wall.
I like Emerson to win this fight.
No odds posted yet.
Brian Stann vs Phil Davis
Tim Hague vs Chris Tuchscherer
Mostapha Al-turk vs. Rolles Gracie