UFC Light Heavyweight Bout: Ryan Bader vs. Ovince St.Preux
Odds: ( -165 Bader / +135 St. Preux )
Betting Pick: Bader
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In the main event of UFC Fight Night 47, heavy-handed wrestler Ryan Bader will square off against well-rounded veteran Ovince St. Preux in a featured Light Heavyweight matchup. These are two of the UFC’s top 10 contenders at 205 pounds, and a win here would go a long way toward putting one of them firmly in the middle of the title contention picture. St. Preux is riding an impressive five-fight winning streak, but Bader is a step up from the guys he’s been beating. Bader has been a player at the top of the division for a while, and a third straight win against a top ten opponent might be just what he needs to transform himself into a legitimate title contender.
Ovince St. Preux is a versatile, athletic veteran who can end fights with hard, accurate strikes or with submissions from a variety of positions. He has good hand speed and great footwork, and his aggressive style make him a formidable opponent. Against Bader, he will probably be the quicker and more technical striker, but he will be at a disadvantage in terms of one-punch knockout power and control in the clinch. Similarly, he is a much more dangerous submission grappler than Bader is, but he will probably struggle to find advantageous positions on the ground against Bader’s wrestling.
Ryan Bader is one of the UFC’s most proficient Light Heavyweight wrestlers, and he backs it up with bruising striking on the feet and dominant ground and pound. He’s not as quick or technical as St. Preux, but he has much more one-punch power and is great at using the clinch to control and neutralize opponents while setting up his dirty boxing. Against St. Preux he doesn’t want to let this turn into a boxing match, because I think he will get consistently beaten to the punch. Similarly, he doesn’t want to spend too much of the fight sitting in top position, because St. Preux has a variety of sweeps and submissions off his back.
This is a tough fight to call. St. Preux has more ways to finish and more technique overall, but Bader is a bruiser who is very good at neutralizing opponents. Ultimately, I think Bader’s wrestling will make the difference. He can clinch to stop some of St. Preux’s boxing and he will control when and how the fight goes to the ground. I don’t expect a finish either way, but I expect Bader to exert enough control to take the unanimous decision win.
Prediction: Ryan Bader by Unanimous Decision.
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