UFC 119 Predictions

UFC 119 takes place Saturday, September 25th in Indianapolis.  Because of an injury to Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, the main event stands as former UFC Heayweight champion Frank Mir versus former PRIDE Grand Prix winner Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic.  The co-main event will feature two contending Light Heavyweights in Antonio Rogerio Nogueira and Ryan Bader. In […]

UFC 119 takes place Saturday, September 25th in Indianapolis.  Because of an injury to Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, the main event stands as former UFC Heayweight champion Frank Mir versus former PRIDE Grand Prix winner Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic.  The co-main event will feature two contending Light Heavyweights in Antonio Rogerio Nogueira and Ryan Bader.

In customary fashion, my friend Mike Hammersmith will also be giving his best bets for this weekend’s event. Before you place your bets, make sure to “line shop” by checking out the UFC 119 odds across several sports books, in addition to looking over the MMAMoneyLine Betting Guide and UFC 119 Pros’ Picks.

Joe Doerksen – Mike Hammersmith (+260 on Bookmaker)

Sometimes with odds, I feel like bookies and bettors get a notion into their head and no matter how many times they’re proven wrong, they don’t quite want to see it. Such is the case with CB Dollaway, whom despite a world of potential and plenty of talent on the wrestling mat, hasn’t really lived up to the TUF 7 hype. Since then, Dollaway has spent the majority of his UFC career either tapping out, going to sleep, or arguing about whether or not he tapped out, and will be facing more of the same when he takes on the ridiculously undervalued Joe Doerksen. With well over fifty MMA bouts under his belt and with over thirty wins by submission, the BJJ black belt Doerksen is a difficult match for a wrestler, and especially considering he’s likely the better striker of the two fighters. With an initial line of +260 for Doerksen, I’m stunned to see this hasn’t moved at all since being released, and recommend a mid-sized bet on this one in a close fight which likely goes in favor of Doerksen.

Frank Mir – Mike Hammersmith -240 on Sportsbook)

Somewhat of and old-school MMA dream match, Frank Mir and Mirko Cro-cop will finally collide inside the UFC cage, and makes for an excellent main event to the card. In looking at this fight, I’m really stunned by the comparative rate of progression, as Frank Mir has completely transformed himself in the last several years into a dynamic heavyweight, while Cro-cop remains a one-note kick-boxer. Mir comes into this fight as a huge favorite in my book, as he’s anything but foolish, and will have no problem coming up with and executing a game plan to dominate Cro-Cop. Short of a stunning KO, Mir will put this fight on the mat either from a shot or a clinch take down and Cro-Cop’s novice mat-work will do nothing to stop Mir from locking on a submission early in this one. Look for a quick take down and a quick kimura to put an end to this fight inside the first minute, making a strong bet at -240 a wise play.

Sean McCorkle – Mike Hammersmith +190 on Bodog)

Whether due to a rumored contractual issue, or just because the UFC felt like it, veteran kick boxer Mark Hunt finds himself inside the cage for a one-and-done affair, taking on hometown fighter Sean McCorkle. This fight is generating a lot of hype due to Hunt’s impressive “down-sizing”, going from roughly 300lbs, to looking like he could make Light Heavyweight for this one. A lot of times with fan favorites though, it’s important to look at the fighter with an honest eye, and doing so with Hunt reveals some ugly truths.

As much as it might upset some people to say, Mark Hunt was never a good fighter. While his ability to take a hit is legendary, walking through punches doesn’t do you any good if you can’t retaliate effectively, and Hunt’s KO power has been largely exaggerated over time. The fact of the matter is, Hunt hasn’t won a fight in over four years, and the one thing that could make him a difficulty here, that being his extreme low center of gravity, has apparently been trained off in the gym.
I would never call McCorkle a “hot prospect”, having watched his extensive YouTube collection, but looking at this honestly, I can’t see Hunt winning here. Being a 5’10″ Heavyweight hasn’t been a realistic ambition since UFC 6, and the fact McCorkle comes into this fight with nine inches of height and a true Heavyweight build makes this a foregone conclusion. McCorkle should have little trouble putting an undersized Hunt on the mat and imposing his will for a TKO stoppage late in the fight. While UFC newcomers are a risk to bet on, McCorkle coming in at +190 makes for a great payout on something that should be a foregone conclusion.

Melvin Guillard – MMAMoneyLine (-155 on SportBet)

Both Melvin Guillard and Jeremy Stephens have really been stepping up their respective game as of late.  With that being said, I do believe Guillard has always had better tools than Stephens and now arguably has better training at Jackson’s camp.
Both guys are strong, tough, and hit hard.  I don’t expect much wrestling or many submission attempts in this fight (although it wouldn’t be a bad strategy for either fighter).  While Guillard’s chin is far from granite, he has the power of a Welterweight.  Guillard’s hand speed and aggression is going to be tough to deal with…a much different striker than Sam Stout.  While Stephens does have the power to turn Melvin’s lights off, he is going to have to be on the defensive for the beginning of this fight.  I expect Stephens to get clipped with a hard right then ground and pounded to a first round TKO loss.

Chris Lytle – MMAMoneyLine (-130 on SportBet)

This fight already happened in 2006, with Serra getting the nod in a split decision that could have went either way.  Here we are 4 years later with the same two exciting fighters going at it again.  I do think this fight will be Fight of the Night by the way.
I can’t shake the feeling of Lytle winning this fight easily.  Chris Lytle is next to impossible to stop in a fight…his only stoppage losses in about 50 fights were TKOs from cuts.  I don’t think Serra can stay out of danger for 15 minutes against a guy like Lytle.  Chris Lytle is serious competition for anyone at Welterweight…and Serra doesn’t have what it takes to stop him.  Lytle takes a unanimous decision victory here against a tough Matt Serra.

MMAMoneyLine Official Picks:

Mir/SUB/2

Bader/UD

Lytle/UD

Dunham/SUB/1

Guillard/TKO/1

Doerksen/SUB/2

Mitrione/SD

Grant/SUB/3

Tavares/UD

Hunt/KO/2

Lopez/UD

MMAMoneyLine Official Wagers (1 unit = 2% of bankroll):

Guillard 1 u. at -155 on SportBet

Lytle – 1 u. at -130 on SportBet