The UFC gets back on the Fight Pass horse after airing Invicta FC 8 by returning to Brazil with a match-up between two heavyweights who first faced one another in Strikeforce. The card is also filled with Brazilian talent, including top prospect Larissa Pacheco, rising contender Iuri Alcantara and more.
Will Bigfoot repeat his success against Arlovski or is it time for the former UFC heavyweight champion in Arlovski to return to glory?
What: UFC Fight Night: Silva vs. Arlovski (UFC Fight Night 51)
Where: Ginásio Nilson Nelson, Brasilia, Brazil
When: Saturday, the five-fight preliminary Fight Pass card starts at 5:45 p.m. ET and the six-fight Fight Pass main card starts at 8 p.m.
Antonio Silva vs. Andrei Arlovski
It’s hard to be very certain of anything here. We have two fighters here with as many known strengths as known weaknesses, meaning we can’t count on a reliable standard of defense throughout the bout. I will say Silva absorbs damage better than Arlovski at this point, but I don’t rule out the possibility of Silva getting his lights turned out either. But like their first fight, Silva is the better boxer and has no need to test Arlovski’s takedown defense. He can win in the clinch or at range, whatever he prefers. Arlovski has looked, at best, languid in his WSOF run and recent UFC return. I suspect Silva catches him or stops him altogether.
Pick: Silva
Gleison Tibau vs. Piotr Hallmann
Hallmann is nothing if not perseverant. The guy can be hurt early and still remain unfazed, walking opposition down and often fighting them on their terms. Tibau, by contrast, has shown a propensity to fade, especially in this latter stage of his career. Still, skills win fights and Tibau has better fire power early, much better wrestling and is significantly stronger. The only unknown is how much Hallmann will pour it on late if he doesn’t get stopped early.
Pick: Tibau
Leonardo Santos vs. Efrain Escudero
We can’t discount the possibility of Escudero wrestling Santos into a decision loss, but I wonder if someone as capable of creating submission opportunities as Santos can find a way to end things before. Escudero hasn’t looked bad on the regional scene by any stretch, but his limits against fighters with consistent or unusual offense have shown themselves over and over. Santos is just a wait around guard player, either. Lots of jiu-jitsu players have a lazy style where they wait for the submission bus to show up to their stop. Santos is typically not that kind of guy, usually electing to force positional or weight/balance changes to get opposition to react. I’m betting Escudero lasts a while before making a wrong move.
Pick: Santos
Santiago Ponzinibbio vs. Wendell Oliveira
Oliveira has largely feasted on opposition from Brazil’s regional scene. Meanwhile, the Argentine didn’t look great against Ryan LaFlare, but I’ll give him a mulligan on this one. LaFlare’s ability to won scrambles and be proactive on offense makes fighters look worse than they are. Ponzinibbio has good power, but I suspect he’ll be able to take the fight to the ground, too, where he will have the true technical and, frankly, sizable advantage.
Pick: Ponzinibbio
Iuri Alcantara vs. Russell Doane
Alcantara might be the most underrated fighter in this division, if not the entire UFC. Doane is a good athlete and a very slick MMA grappler, but even in that department Alcantara has him beat. I used to underrate his hands until he fought Eddie Wineland. I respect Doane quite a bit, but this is absolutely Alcantara’s fight to lose, no matter where the contest goes.
Pick: Alcantara
Jessica Andrade vs. Larissa Pacheco
This is one hell of a scrap. Pacheco is one of the best female prospects at bantamweight, having finished every single fighter she’s ever faced. Andrade, as we know, is a tank who can slug it out and apply consistent pressure throughout a contest. It’s hard to know what will happen here. Is Andrade just better than the fighters Pacheco has faced? Maybe, but Pacheco is offensively-minded in a way most fighters are not. She’s rarely trying to score points. Everything is about damage or the finish or at least trying to create set-ups for future action. I expect a close contest, but also a successful UFC debut for Pacheco.
Pick: Pacheco
From the preliminary card:
Godofredo Pepey def. Dashon Johnson
Igor Araujo def. George Sullivan
Leandro Silva def. Francisco Trinaldo
Paulo Thiago def. Sean Spencer
Johnny Bedford def. Rani Yahya