UFC 109 – Relentless is going down this Saturday, February 6th in Las Vegas. The main event pits one UFC Hall of Famer against another as former UFC Heavyweight and Light Heavyweight champion Randy Couture takes on former UFC Heavyweight and PRIDE Grand Prix champion Mark Coleman. In addition, the next contender for the UFC Middleweight belt will be decided as Nate Marquardt squares off against Chael Sonnen.
From a betting perspective, this is the UFC first card in a while to have 5 fights hovering around the -400/+300 mark. With that being said, there are a few strong betting opportunities to look for this weekend. As per the future format of MMAMoneyLine’s predictions, I will only cover the fights that have betting value. Here are MMAMoneyLine’s betting recommendations for UFC 109.
Mike Swick vs. Paulo Thiago
These top 10 Welterweights will both be looking to rebound from losses against Dan Hardy and Jon Fitch respectively. Mike Swick is a late replacement for teammate Josh Koscheck, who was first scheduled to avenge his upset loss against Paulo Thiago but was forced to pull out with an injury. I don’t believe that will be a real factor in this fight for either guy seeing as they both still had more than adequate time to prepare.
Mike Swick is a technically sound striker who is extremely difficult to take down. He is very well rounded with several submission wins on his UFC record, and is also very big considering he is a converted Middleweight. Even though Thiago’s name was made off of Josh Koscheck’s chin, the Brazilian’s bread and butter is still his black belt level Judo and Jiu Jitsu.
Many people look to the Thiago/Fitch fight as a reason to support a Thiago pick here. After all, Paulo did very well against one of the top WWs in the world in only his second fight in the UFC, albeit a loss. However, Fitch is a completely different fighter than Swick. Mike Swick has no desire for this fight to go to the ground, and Thiago is going to have to try very hard to get him there.
If Swick uses his reach to control the distance in this fight, I like his odds. Thiago’s not a Dan Hardy level striker, and his best shot in this fight is getting Swick in close quarters and using his Judo to bring him down. Thiago doesn’t have a double leg that is going to be able to get Swick horizontal, so that is one less thing for the AKA mixed martial artist to worry about. Swick also has the advantage of two teammates who have been in the cage with Thiago…which is valuable information indeed.
Mike Swick has too many advantages in this fight, plain and simple. Thiago is very capable of giving Swick the Koscheck treatment, but Swick is a more technical striker than Koscheck. Thiago is also more than capable of submitting Swick, but it’s going to be very difficult to get into a position to submit him without taking on a ton of punishment. Thiago will get antsy after getting picked apart in the first, make a move and pay for it a la Ben Saunders.
My pick: Mike Swick via TKO in the 2nd round
Betting play: I personally took Swick at -200, and you can still get him at that line on Bodog and Sportsbook. Those odds put Swick in the winner’s circle 66% of the time, and I believe his odds are closer to 70-75% with a stylistic matchup like this. MMAMoneyLine recommends a strong bet on Mike Swick at -200.
Matt Serra VS. Frank Trigg
Even though this is a battle of no real relevance to the Welterweight belt, I am still looking forward to watching these two trash talking vets hook ‘em up. I like both of these guys a lot, both inside and outside of the octagon, and this fight makes perfect sense. Along with Couture and Coleman, these two fighters that we all grew up watching are going to be looking to prove they still have what it takes.
I believe confidence is going to play a huge factor here. Neither one of these guys are short on confidence, and they shouldn’t be seeing the solid careers they have amassed. However, Matt Serra is coming off of a real strong performance in a losing effort against Matt Hughes, while Frank Trigg is still feeling the after effects of a beating at the hands of Josh Koscheck.
I don’t think Trigg’s size advantage will give him much of an advantage here. Yes, I know Serra is a blown up Lightweight and Trigg is a slimmed down Middleweight, but Serra has put in good performances against bullying Welterweights like Hughes and St. Pierre.
Frank Trigg is vulnerable to Serra’s powerful boxing and is also notorious for having sub-par submission defense. These two facts do not bode well for Twinkle Toes. I do believe Frank still has some left in the tank (it was awful to see his return to the octagon be against a juggernaut like Koscheck) but this is a poor fight for him. I like the odds of Serra finding a home for a big shot fairly early.
My pick: Matt Serra via KO in the first
Betting play: I think these odds are pretty off, and should be closer to -170/+140. I’m not complaining though, I got Serra at -125 and I’d still recommend taking “the Terra” at -140 (58%) on 5Dimes or SportBet.
Ronnys Torres VS. Melvin Guillard
In my opinion, this fight is the most intriguing on the entire card. I think oddsmakers agree with me, because the line has been all over the place. On the surface, it looks like another predictable submission loss to the underachieving Melvin Guillard. However, the New Orleans native has an ace in his sleeve…and his name is Greg Jackson.
Guillard will need all the help he can get against a guy with the BJJ of Ronnys Torres. Even though he hasn’t fought since 2008, Torres will certainly test Guillard’s submission defense progress early and often.
Guillard most definitely has the striking ability to decapitate Torres in the first minute in this fight, while Torres won’t have much of a problem if he gets his hands on Guillard. Torres won’t be content to stand in front of Guillard for an extended period of time like Nate Diaz did. He will be looking to get this fight to the mat however possible. Torres’ wrestling gives him the advantage here, and I don’t believe one training camp is enough for Melvin to change a career long weakness.
My pick: Ronnys Torres via first round submission
Betting play: This fight is close, but I can’t ignore Torres as an underdog. Torres should be about a -110 favorite here. His best odds are +105 at BetUS. MMAMoneyLine recommends a small to moderate bet on Torres on BetUS.
MMAMoneyLine Official Picks:
Couture/Split Decision
Swick/TKO/2
Maia/SUB/2
Marquardt/Unanimous Decision
Serra/KO/1
Danzig/SUB/3
Torres/SUB/1
Emerson/Split Decision
Davis/Unanimous Decision
Tuchscherer/TKO/3
Gracie/SUB/1
MMAMoneyLine Official Wagers (1 unit = 2% of bankroll):
Swick – 2 u at -200
Serra – 2 u at -125
Torres – .5 u at +105