I often talk of the promoter-fighter handshake. That’s the arrangement where both the fighter and promoter work together to create the best possible outcome in terms of generating interest. In all my years of covering fight sports, I’ve never seen a better handshake than the one UFC and Conor McGregor share. He is, by far, the best promoted fighter I’ve ever witnessed.
Much of that is his own doing. His brash talk, stirring nationalism, soaring rhetoric, tireless work ethic, unique fighting style and camera-ready persona have carried him to incredible heights in record time. He is unusual, which he knows and flaunts to fantastic effect.
The UFC knows it, too, which is why they’ve carefully made the right fights for him along the way. That is, just the kind of guys he needed to beat to get the right experience while he could look good doing it. He’s beaten very legitimate fighters, but there is an art to getting the right fights at the right time, something McGregor’s benefitted from. More than that, though, they’ve raised their own game to make sure they boosted McGregor’s profile. When he needed a stage, they built one. They’ve taken him around the world and back to Dublin to help McGregor make himself more than what he was just yesterday or the day before. They knew what they had and never took their foot off the gas once he got going.
The UFC typically makes calculated risks. Saturday is unusual in that the choice to have McGregor face Mendes poses the unusually high risk UFC likes to avoid. If Mendes wins – or worse, makes McGregor look bad – so many potential record-setting events or opportunities evaporate. But you have to admire the UFC’s gall here. If McGregor wins, the world is his oyster as it is the UFC’s. The rewards are so massive that taking any other approach seems foolish despite the potential backfire. It’s high risk, high reward, but the UFC’s desire to bet on themselves as well as their surging talent from Ireland could produce incalculable rewards. That they’ve done it every chance they’ve had with McGregor along the way is something we may never see again. It’s about as close to the perfect handshake as can be found in fight sports.
That is, unless the entire thing is an illusion and McGregor simply cannot compete at this level. Because if he can’t or is made to look ineffectual, they were only ever building a bridge to nowhere.
How fitting this fight is in Vegas. The UFC’s gamble is the biggest bet in that town on Saturday night.
Chad Mendes vs. Conor McGregor
At stake: the Conor McGregor referendum. This fight’s been analyzed to death, so I’ll just comment on the overarching issue at play. The best part about Jose Aldo dropping out is that McGregor’s challenge didn’t really change. Yes, Mendes is an entirely different opponent, but the central question of McGregor’s legitimacy is still in play. Is he championship material or not? Can he beat a top of the food chain fighter or not? We couldn’t get that answer against Aldo this time, but a fight with Mendes pushes McGregor in the same direction. Given how lackluster substitute fights are, this is such a rare treat.
As for Mendes, a loss here wouldn’t be all that bad. He’s already solidified himself as a top talent, albeit one where he cannot best the absolute king. Losing to McGregor wouldn’t change that much, especially after crushing Ricardo Lamas. McGregor would move ahead, but it would dramatically alter the way Mendes is viewed.
Robbie Lawler vs. Rory MacDonald
At stake: a coronation. Lawler is the champ and hopes to remain that way, but doubts linger about his ability to hold sustained dominance over the division. Sure, he’s good, most agree, but how good? Could he defeat Johny Hendricks again? Will he beat MacDonald for the second time? Some believe he will, but it’s not a foregone conclusion. This bout is not just silencing doubts, but putting together a run of dominance that officially cement him as the welterweight of the moment.
For MacDonald, he can’t worry about dominance until he captures the title, but it’s that title he needs to make good on expectations or promise. He’s young and his yet more time to climb, but losing twice to Lawler would be a hard spot to come back from. Still, what MacDonald is trying to achieve is the greatness everyone expects from him, including himself. There is a void in Canada and while MacDonald alone cannot fill it, his ascension to welterweight king would go a long way towards filling it.
Gunnar Nelson vs. Brandon Thatch and Dennis Bermudez vs. Jeremy Stephens
At stake: being a real contender. The hype behind both fighters is very much deserved, but so are the questions. Nelson has shown brilliant ground attacks and unusual striking, but couldn’t handle the orthodox (if powerful) boxing of Rick Story. Thatch is huge and highly creative, but came up short against a lightweight moonlighting as a welterweight. Both need to get back on the winning track and prove the better parts of their games are what truly define them, not the underlying questions.
Bermduez and Stephens aren’t quite in the same position. Stephens is trying to breathe more life into his career with a suspect weight class change. He’s also dropped two in a row and failed to make weight for this bout. Bermudez fell short badly in his last fight where he was easily defeated by Ricardo Lamas. Still, both have the potential to do more and be more than they are. Bermudez has dramatically improved since his early UFC fights and Stephens’ potent striking always keeps him in fights. If they want to climb the ranks, winning here is imperative.
Brad Pickett vs. Thomas Almeida
At stake: a future. Pickett has been and still is a respected competitor, but the miles on his career are beginning to show. He’s returned to bantamweight after an unsuccessful run at flyweight. Yet, this contest is a bit of referendum on him as well as Almeida. The key is whether the young Brazilian can continue to advance in his burgeoning career or if Pickett has enough left in the tank to still be a top contender.