The third UFC show in five days is here, and it features an important heavyweight battle for an aging veteran against a fighter looking to make good on what has been unfulfilled promise up to now. The card also features a series of important lightweight, women’s bantamweight and other contender battles.
What: UFC Fight Night 71 (UFC Fight Night: Mir vs. Duffee)
Where: Valley View Casino Center, San Diego, Calif.
When: Wednesday, the two-fight preliminary card kicks off on Fight Pass at 7 p.m. ET, the four-fight preliminary card starts on Fox Sports 1 at 8 p.m. and the six-fight main card begins at 10 p.m. ET on Fox Sports 1.
Frank Mir vs. Todd Duffee
I’m always reluctant to count out Mir. There are times where he never quite shows what he has and disappoints, but he also has a wealth of knowledge of the game and veteran experience. The amount of minute tricks he has adds up to fight-changing ability. This time, though, I’m not willing to count on that. He’s been this heavy before, but at 262 pounds, that seems excessively big for the much more mobile Duffee. I also believe if Duffee can stuff Mir’s wrestling – a doable task, seemingly – then the power punching and reach of Duffee should be plenty sufficient to hurt and put away the former champion. Again, I make this prediction with trepidation, but I have to side with the younger, quicker heavyweight.
Pick: Duffee
Josh Thomson vs. Tony Ferguson
Ferguson takes a lot of risks, many unnecessarily, but he has all the ability in the world. He can wrestle, scramble, submit from top or bottom and has crushing power. Thomson is as well-rounded as they come, but the miles on his body are beyond calculation. At his best, he should be able to push Ferguson backwards and use his better wrestling degree and more conventional kickboxing skill set to keep El Cucuy on the defensive. I’m just not convinced that’s the version of Thomson we are going to get here.
Pick: Ferguson
Man, there is something about Reneau that is clearly special. She seems to always be seething with rage under her skin, able to contain and use it to maximum effect, but she’s a ferocious competitor. I always like when fighters compete with a a chip on their shoulders and there may be no one better in the UFC than her when it comes to that. All of that being said, I am supposed to use available evidence to make a pick. Reneau’s boxing is good, but she’ll have a hard time closing the distance on a stick and move artist like Holm. Holm’s takedown defense is also pretty good, meaning Reneau’s stellar submission game might not play much of a role here. The evidence says pick Holm and that’s the smart play here, but for fun, I’m going to side with the one everyone seems to always be wrong counting out.
Pick: Reneau
Scott Jorgensen vs. Manvel Gamburyan
It’s hard to say what either guy really has left here. Jorgensen is back in the right weight class, but has had plenty of issues at bantamweight, too. Gamburyan’s limited at this level of the game, but still has good firepower and defensive wrestling. I suspect that will tip the scales in his favor. He’ll be able to neutralize or match Jorgensen’s wrestling while finding an opening for his wide if hugely powerful punches.
Pick: Gamburyan
Moontasri’s assortment of kicks is a thing to behold and his takedown defense has improved just within the short amount of time he’s spent in the UFC, but that’s Lee’s game. I look to Lee to basically pressure Moontasri until he breaks or the fight ends, where the judges award him a unanimous decision win.
Pick: Lee
If I’m oversimplifying it, it wouldn’t be the first time, but Dwyer seems very hittable and Jouban has crisp striking with both his hands and feet. He’s also a much more physical, dynamic and explosive athlete, which means I like his ability to strike first and strike with authority before Dwyer has a chance to do much about it.
Pick: Jouban
From the preliminary card:
Sam Sicilia def. Yaotzin Meza
Jessica Andrade def. Sarah Moras
Masanori Kanehara def. Rani Yahya
Sean Strickland def. Igor Araujo
Ildemar Alcantara def. Kevin Casey
Lyman Good def. Andrew Craig