UFC Fight Night: Dillashaw vs. Cruz staff picks and predictions

Check out who the Bloody Elbow staff is picking to win on tomorrow night’s UFC Fight Night: Dillashaw vs. Cruz card at the TD Garden in Boston, MA.

The Bloody Elbow staff has submitted its predictions for Sunday’s UFC Fight Night: Dillashaw vs. Cruz show in Boston. Only Tim Burke and Nick Baldwin like Cruz to get his bantamweight belt back, while the rest of us are picking Dillashaw. Rather surprisingly, only Victor Rodriguez is going with Eddie Alvarez to beat Anthony Petis in the co-main, and the staff is slightly leaning towards Matt Mitrione to beat Travis Browne. The majority of us are also siding with Ross Pearson to beat Francisco Trinaldo in the main card opener.

Note: Predictions are entered throughout the week and collected the day before an event. Explanations behind each pick are not required and some writers opt not to do so for their own reasons. For example, if Phil Mackenzie entered all of his predictions on Tuesday without adding in any explanations, he has no idea if he’s going to be the only one siding with one fighter for any given fight.

TJ Dillashaw vs. Dominick Cruz – UFC bantamweight championship

Anton Tabuena: This is truly a fantastic match up. Both guys move extremely well, with TJ likely having more power on his combinations and works better on either stance, while Cruz seems to have better defense, better takedowns, and more experience. If we get the Cruz of old, I am not even going to hesitate picking him, as he should be the more diverse fighter who adjusts well, and perfectly mixes up takedowns with his strikes. In a vacuum, I believe it could all boil down not with who moves better on offense, but how one reacts to facing someone with that kind of varied attack. TJ did seem to have a bit of trouble in the past with mobile and accurate strikers, while Cruz shined even when matched up against guys like Johnson, Faber, and others. Based on what we’ve seen in the cage, I’d say Cruz has the advantage here, but the thing is, Cruz has had 1 fight in 4 years, and we’ve seen zero stand up from him on that time. He took Mizugaki down and blasted him, but we haven’t really seen if his timing and movement on the feet is still the same. To me that’s a massive question mark and the key component, making this much harder to predict. Will Cruz still be as efficient as he was for a 25 minute fight? Is his reaction time, explosiveness and judge of distance still the same? It would be a fantastic story to see Cruz regain the belt he never lost in the cage, but honestly, it’s just too hard to pick a guy with too many unknowns about his current state. I hope I’m wrong and we see both men at the top of their games, but I’m leaning towards TJ simply because we know what we’re getting. TJ Dillashaw by TKO.

Mookie Alexander: So many unknown variables here. I think 2011 Cruz beats 2016 Dillashaw, but I cannot see a reason to believe 2011 Cruz will show up tomorrow. We’re working on 61 seconds of fighting over the span of 51 months. So let’s take a look at some other aspects to this fight: When is the last time TJ Dillashaw has faced a wrestler as good as Cruz? Hell, who has ever consistently tried to take Dillashaw down other than Raphael Assuncao? And when is the last time Cruz has fought a striker as good as TJ? It’s either 2011 Mighty Mouse or the Faber rematch, and Dillashaw’s striking is better than both of those two comparisons. Dillashaw has the advantage in volume, power, and precision, but Cruz is great at setting up his takedowns and working angles. This sounds too simplistic, but I think Dillashaw will be able to defend the takedowns, win enough grappling battles, and pick apart Cruz with his beautiful combinations to get the decision win. TJ Dillashaw by unanimous decision.

Nick: This is a very close fight and lots of people are picking Dillashaw because of Cruz’s long layoff, but I don’t think the former champ will suffer from cage rust at all. Even coming off another ACL tear, I think he’ll look just as good, if not better, and get the job done with his movement. Dillashaw has a high striking rate, and Cruz has a high defense rate. Will Dillashaw falter in the striking department, or will Cruz falter in the defense department? I’m going with the first one. Dominick Cruz via Unanimous Decision

Victor Rodriguez: I have to disagree with Nick here, this layoff is going to affect Cruz’s performance. Cruz certainly won’t be lacking motivation or hunger, but Dillashaw is a different challenge with better movement than what Dominick is used to. TJ’s going to have some trouble landing shots, but he won’t be controlled by Cruz’s wrestling and will likely beat him up against the fence. Tyler Jeffrey Dillashaw by decision.

Fraser Coffeen: I’ve watched a ton of fights from these guys lately and that has convinced me of three things: 1) This is going to awesome. 2) This is a REALLY hard fight to pick. and 3) It’s going to be decided by Dillashaw’s takedown defense. There’s been a big deal made over the years of how Dillashaw has never been taken down in the Octagon but the fact is no one has really actively tried to take him down consistently (though Barao does get him down for about a half second in their second fight). Cruz most certainly will. Like GSP, Cruz is a smart fighter and when he’s not dominating the stand-up (and he won’t against TJ), he likes to shift attacks and start scoring the takedowns. That’s how he beat Mighty Mouse and many others, and I feel confident it’s how he tries to beat Dillashaw. So can he get that takedown? It’s hard to say as TJ’s defense is not much tested, and as good a striking coach as Bang Ludwig is, he’s not a wrestling coach. Still, I do think the champ can stay off his back enough to engage in a striking battle, and there, while it’s razor close, I give him the edge due to his power and the timing that should allow him to catch Cruz coming in. Hedging my bets though and saying that if I’m wrong and Cruz wins that takedown battle, he’s the new champ. T.J. Dillashaw, KO, round 4

Staff picking Dillashaw: Mookie, Stephie, Victor, Phil, Fraser, Zane, Anton
Staff picking Cruz: Tim, Nick

Eddie Alvarez vs. Anthony Pettis

Anton Tabuena: This will likely bring the fireworks, but overall this bout is pretty straightforward to me. This will mostly be spent on the feet, and Pettis should be by far the more dynamic and technical striker. Unless the brutal RDA fight changed him completely, this is his fight to lose. Anthony Pettis by Decision.

Mookie Alexander: Pettis is just about d-o-n-e as a LW title challenger if he loses this. I’ve already written about the historical problems lightweights have had with getting back into championship fights, and Pettis absolutely can fall into this hole. Fortunately for him, unless Alvarez takes the RDA/Melendez plan of constant pressure and repeated takedown attempts, Pettis will mop up Eddie standing and hurt him badly. I can see a submission out of Pettis, but I think this is the weekend that Alvarez suffers his first knockout loss since Nick Thompson way back in the Bodog days. Anthony Pettis by TKO, round 2.

Victor Rodriguez: As the resident unofficial yet unapologetic Alvarez cheerleader around these parts, this is tough. Pettis is slick and dangerous in his offense regardless of where he is. That said, RDA and to a lesser extent Melendez showed Pettis doesn’t deal that well with forward pressure and can be largely nullified if you don’t give him room to implement his kicking game. Eddie should know this and hopefully close the distance to prevent getting leg kicked to death. Pettis won’t be strong enough to keep him off the whole fight. Eddie Alvarez by hideous but satisfying decision.

Staff picking Alvarez: Victor
Staff picking Pettis: Tim, Mookie, Nick, Phil, Stephie, Fraser, Zane, Anton

Travis Browne vs. Matt Mitrione

Anton Tabuena: Browne should fight smart and wrestle here, but they’re probably just going to duke it out until one man goes down. These are heavyweights, so anything can happen, but with Browne’s lapses on defense, I’m guessing it’s him who gets put down. Matt Mitrione by TKO.

Mookie Alexander: Am I missing something here? I get that Travis Browne is clearly not a guy who is going to be competing for championships, but Matt Mitrione really has never shown himself to be anywhere close to the caliber of top 10 heavyweights. He’s more than good enough to beat guys in the 12-15 range and below, but fights like the Rothwell loss show his limitations. Of course, Mitrione can win this if Browne goes for an explosion of stupid and just boxes with him for the whole fight, but Mitrione is terrible off his back, Browne has good enough takedowns and is hard to buck off when he’s on top of you. I think that’s how the fight plays out, and Browne will arm-triangle Mitrione. Travis Browne by submission, round 2.

Phil Mackenzie: On the plus side, these are good athletes for Heavyweight. The fight consists of Browne, a guy with a natural feel for the fight coupled with consistently sloppy stand-up, against good technical stand-up corroded by a huge predilection for brainfarts on Mitrione’s part. Browne has a reasonable top game which could play out against Mitrione’s tendency to horrifically spaz out in ground situations, but Hapa doesn’t look for takedowns much. Mitrione is by far the cleaner counterpuncher and defensive fighter. What does this mean in the grand scheme of things? Likely not much because Heavyweights. Matt Mitrione by unanimous decision.

Victor Rodriguez: Travis Browne still trains under Edmond Tarverdyan, which means that no matter what his striking looks like (surprisingly not improved by that much) his defense is almost null. Mitrione won’t shoot for takedowns again after the way it played out for him last time, so this is guaranteed to stay standing. Travis hits hard, but Mitrione fights smarter than he does, plus he has a better finishing instinct. Mitrione by violent TKO, round 2.

Staff picking Browne: Tim, Mookie, Stephie, Fraser
Staff picking Mitrione: Nick, Phil, Victor, Zane, Anton

Ross Pearson vs. Francisco Trinaldo

Mookie Alexander: I picked Trinaldo on the Three Amigos Podcast earlier in the week, but I don’t feel any bit confident in it anymore. Pearson is the better striker, his takedown defense is usually pretty good, and I don’t think he poses the same physical problems that Dunham presented. And unlike Dunham, Trinaldo’s gas tank is not consistent at all. If Trinaldo gets his takedowns and wins from top position, then it’s Trinaldo’s fight to lose. Otherwise, Pearson can win a striking match over the course of three rounds, and that’s what I’m going with. Ross Pearson by unanimous decision.

Phil Mackenzie: Apart from the main event, this is the fight I’ve flip-flopped on the most. It’ll be sad to see one of these guys get their momentum stopped, as they’ve both outperformed expectations a bit recently, against Felder and Laprise respectively. I’m going to go… uhhh… Pearson maybe? Apart from Dunham his problems have been against speed rather than power. If Trinaldo throws takedowns into the mix it gives him a much better chance over a 3 rounder, but he hasn’t really done that recently. Arrgh. Ross Pearson by unanimous decision

Victor Rodriguez: I’m also slightly torn on this one. Trinaldo hits really hard when he catches his opponent, but Pearson fights cleaner and makes better use of angles and timing. Despite Trinaldo’s apparent boxing background and remarkably fun-to-pronounce nickname, his cardio is suspect and his game is sloppy all around. Trinaldo is durable, but Pearson may be able to put him away late in the bout. Ross Pearson by TKO, round 3.

Staff picking Pearson: Nick, Phil, Victor, Zane, Anton, Mookie
Staff picking Trinaldo: Tim, Stephie, Fraser

Patrick Cote vs. Ben Saunders

Anton Tabuena: KNEEEEEEEEEEEEEES. Ben Saunders by TKO.

Mookie Alexander: Very good chance this rejuvenated Cote (that Riggs fight aside) can win this, but Saunders has more ways to win, and he’s cracked iron chins before (see: Marcus Davis). Lets mutherfukers. Ben Saunders by unanimous decision.

Phil Mackenzie: I’ve been a touch critical of what I perceived as Killa B’s overly offensive guard in the past, in that I thought he went for far too many low-percentage submissions. However, over the last couple of years it’s really developed into something special. Cote has also oddly gotten much better lately, moving to a wrestling-centric style and then integrating his striking back into his new skillset. Cote’s wrestling vs Saunders’ guard, Saunders’ better offensive capabilities and higher pace vs Cote’s durability. Hm. Who am I kidding? Lets. Ben Saunders by unanimous decision.

Victor Rodriguez: Cote’s better than people give him credit for, but Ben Saunders has the tools to shut him down. Saunders has better use of range and can be very accurate, plus he’s a big lanky guy with decent takedown defense and marvelous guard game. Cote’s improved a lot since coming back to the UFC, but he won’t be able to close the distance effectively or crack Ben hard enough. Ben Saunders by knees from clinch leading to TKO.

Fraser Coffeen: I certainly am not picking against Killa B. Are YOU??? Ben Saunders, KO, round 2

Staff picking Cote: Nick
Staff picking Saunders: Tim, Mookie, Stephie, Phil, Victor, Fraser, Zane, Anton

Tim Boetsch vs. Ed Herman

Mookie Alexander: Just read what Phil wrote, because I can’t top it. Tim Boetsch by TKO, round 2.

Phil Mackenzie: and so it was that the man they called Short Fuse did attempt regicide most foul against his liege lord, ruler of the Blue Collar Scrappers. Herman secluded himself and prepar’d as well as any man could, honing both power and strength; growing his speed ‘til he could cover entire cubits within the space of a minute. Sadly for the upstart, while the King had been travelling in strange lands and had suffer’d painful defeats to otherworldly warriors, his collar remained the bluest; his scrappiness was still leaven’d by a Barbarian’s insensate power. He defeated the challenger in a fight that in seasons and years to come, the bards would… not sing about very much. Tim Boetsch by unanimous decision.

Staff picking Boetsch: Tim, Mookie, Nick, Stephie, Phil, Fraser, Zane, Anton
Staff picking Herman:

Mehdi Baghdad vs. Chris Wade

Anton Tabuena: Wade will bomb Baghdad. Chris Wade by TKO.

Phil Mackenzie: Wade’s core competency of wrestling should be enough to get him this one. Baghdad just isn’t the wrestler that even Christos Giagos was, and gives up the clinch too easily. Chris Wade by submission, round 3.

Staff picking Baghdad:
Staff picking Wade: Tim, Mookie, Nick, Stephie, Phil, Fraser, Zane, Anton

Maximo Blanco vs. Luke Sanders

Mookie Alexander: Blanco will win this as long as he doesn’t get DQ’d or manages to get a NC out of it through something remarkably stupid. In other words, this is a 50-50 fight. Maximo Blanco by TKO, round 2.

Phil Mackenzie: Sanders is a bit of a live dog. Cool Hand Luke spends his time defending Conor in comment sections trains out of The Lab, and is a near-prototypical Lab fighter: hard-charging, tough, and interstitially well-coached and well-rounded. Blanco is approximately the same brand of gifted but irrepressibly loopy and rule-bending nutter as Yoel Romero or Toquinho, so you never know when he’s going to just throw a fight away. He does seem (“seem”) to be coming into his own. Maximo Blanco by TKO, round 2.

Victor Rodriguez: Sanders is a talented guy, but just out of sure insanity I have to go with Maxi. Nobody capitalizes on crazy scrambles and there’s always an element of random chaos in his bouts. Maximo Blanco by TKO, round 3.

Staff picking Blanco: Tim, Mookie, Nick, Stephie, Victor, Fraser, Zane, Anton
Staff picking Sanders:

Daron Cruickshank vs. Paul Felder

Nick: Spinning sh-t all day, baby. Paul Felder via Knockout; Round 1

Mookie Alexander: Cruickshank doesn’t seem to be getting better and that alone is reason for me to pick Felder. I have a feeling Felder’s output issues in the Pearson fight were partially caused by having such a quick turnaround from the Barboza thriller. He’s got a full camp behind him, he hits hard, has very good takedown defense, and I think he’s still got room to improve, whereas Cruickshank is pretty much a finished product. Paul Felder by KO, round 2.

Phil Mackenzie: Daron Cruickshank has lost to two traits in the UFC- size and pressure. Enter Felder. Cruickshank’s solution to pressure has been double legs in recent years, but I think that’s very unlikely to work against Felder’s iron-clad TDD. Felder isn’t unhittable, and Cruickshank is one of those guys without many KOs with his hands who still clearly hits really really hard, even discounting his kicks. While it’s tempting to play Chin MMAth (could take hits from Barboza and Pearson, can surely take Cruickshank’s), it wouldn’t blow me away to see Felder get overconfident and dusted. That said, Paul Felder by TKO, round 2.

Staff picking Cruickshank:
Staff picking Felder: Tim, Mookie, Nick, Phil, Stephie, Fraser, Zane, Anton

Kyle Bochniak vs. Charles Rosa

Phil Mackenzie: Two very different offense-over-defense fighters. Rosa is length, kicks and scrambles, and Bochniak is just a squat, aggressive tank. I think Bochniak can stick around in the UFC, but this is a brutally short-notice debut and while Rosa’s defense isn’t great, Bochniak literally doesn’t appear to have any. When these kind of fighters collide someone traditionally gets finished. Charles Rosa by submission, round 1

Staff picking Bochniak:
Staff picking Rosa: Nick, Phil, Stephie, Mookie, Fraser, Zane, Anton

Ilir Latifi vs. Sean O’Connell

Nick: I mean, people joke about Latifi being the next light heavyweight champion, and the Greatest of all Time, and things like that… but when I see Latifi as a sizable favourite and the majority of fans picking him to win, I really question whether or not those people are serious or not. The Real OC has this in the bag. Sean O’Connell via Knockout; Round 1

Mookie Alexander: O’Connell looked great in his destruction of Anthony Perosh, and definitely has power in his hands, as we’ve seen in both of his UFC wins. But when you have to go up against the all-time GOAT of all-time, Mr. Ilir Latifi, you’re better off praying that the GAWD himself goes easy on you and doesn’t snatch your soul. Ilir Latifi by Lathrashing, round 1.

Phil Mackenzie: Ilir Latifi is ridiculously super strong, but not particularly quick, and his problems have been around getting his advance stalled at mid to long range. O’Connell is a pocket brawler, and is going to be constantly stepping into spaces where Latifi can get his hands on him. He may be the slightly less diverse boxer, but Latifi has a powerful wrestling and grappling game and an ugly but comically damaging leg kick. Ilir Latifi by TKO, round 1

Victor Rodriguez: O’Connell’s had some hideous moments in his UFC debut but Latifi is durable and a much more complete fighter that won’t fall for a guy spamming right hands. Latifi by TKO on the ground, round 2.

Staff picking Latifi: Tim, Mookie, Phil, Stephie, Victor, Fraser, Zane, Anton
Staff picking O’Connell: Nick

Rob Font vs. Joey Gomez

Mookie Alexander: I don’t think picking Font is a bold prediction, for what it’s worth. Rob Font by unanimous decision.

Phil Mackenzie: Gomez had a semi-underwhelming amateur career but has kerned the corner since with a string of first round knockouts. Longer, more diverse and with more big fight experience, a Font win is undoubtedly the safer script to follow, but if you want to be bold, there’s no reason not to take Gomez in what should be a toss-up of two gifted punchers. Rob Font by TKO, round 2.

Staff picking Font: Tim, Mookie, Nick, Phil, Stephie, Fraser, Zane, Anton
Staff picking Gomez:

Francimar Barroso vs. Elvis Mutapcic

Phil Mackenzie: Nope nope nopity nope. With Bruno Santos long gone, Francimar Barroso is undoubtedly the most boring fighter on the UFC roster, with a level of turgid inactivity which goes far beyond even my capacity for loving boring fighters. Mutapcic is smaller but should at least be able to put out good offense. I can’t remember Barroso doing one effective thing in his UFC career apart from smushing Ryan Jimmo’s balls. Elvis Mutapcic by unanimous decision

Victor Rodriguez: I guess I’m just really happy that Mutapcic is finally getting a shot in the big show. Barroso won’t have the necessary athleticism or speed to win this one. Mutapcic by unanimous decision.

Staff picking Barroso:
Staff picking Mutapcic: Tim, Mookie, Phil, Stephie, Victor, Nick, Fraser, Zane, Anton

Check out who the Bloody Elbow staff is picking to win on tomorrow night’s UFC Fight Night: Dillashaw vs. Cruz card at the TD Garden in Boston, MA.

The Bloody Elbow staff has submitted its predictions for Sunday’s UFC Fight Night: Dillashaw vs. Cruz show in Boston. Only Tim Burke and Nick Baldwin like Cruz to get his bantamweight belt back, while the rest of us are picking Dillashaw. Rather surprisingly, only Victor Rodriguez is going with Eddie Alvarez to beat Anthony Petis in the co-main, and the staff is slightly leaning towards Matt Mitrione to beat Travis Browne. The majority of us are also siding with Ross Pearson to beat Francisco Trinaldo in the main card opener.

Note: Predictions are entered throughout the week and collected the day before an event. Explanations behind each pick are not required and some writers opt not to do so for their own reasons. For example, if Phil Mackenzie entered all of his predictions on Tuesday without adding in any explanations, he has no idea if he’s going to be the only one siding with one fighter for any given fight.

TJ Dillashaw vs. Dominick Cruz – UFC bantamweight championship

Anton Tabuena: This is truly a fantastic match up. Both guys move extremely well, with TJ likely having more power on his combinations and works better on either stance, while Cruz seems to have better defense, better takedowns, and more experience. If we get the Cruz of old, I am not even going to hesitate picking him, as he should be the more diverse fighter who adjusts well, and perfectly mixes up takedowns with his strikes. In a vacuum, I believe it could all boil down not with who moves better on offense, but how one reacts to facing someone with that kind of varied attack. TJ did seem to have a bit of trouble in the past with mobile and accurate strikers, while Cruz shined even when matched up against guys like Johnson, Faber, and others. Based on what we’ve seen in the cage, I’d say Cruz has the advantage here, but the thing is, Cruz has had 1 fight in 4 years, and we’ve seen zero stand up from him on that time. He took Mizugaki down and blasted him, but we haven’t really seen if his timing and movement on the feet is still the same. To me that’s a massive question mark and the key component, making this much harder to predict. Will Cruz still be as efficient as he was for a 25 minute fight? Is his reaction time, explosiveness and judge of distance still the same? It would be a fantastic story to see Cruz regain the belt he never lost in the cage, but honestly, it’s just too hard to pick a guy with too many unknowns about his current state. I hope I’m wrong and we see both men at the top of their games, but I’m leaning towards TJ simply because we know what we’re getting. TJ Dillashaw by TKO.

Mookie Alexander: So many unknown variables here. I think 2011 Cruz beats 2016 Dillashaw, but I cannot see a reason to believe 2011 Cruz will show up tomorrow. We’re working on 61 seconds of fighting over the span of 51 months. So let’s take a look at some other aspects to this fight: When is the last time TJ Dillashaw has faced a wrestler as good as Cruz? Hell, who has ever consistently tried to take Dillashaw down other than Raphael Assuncao? And when is the last time Cruz has fought a striker as good as TJ? It’s either 2011 Mighty Mouse or the Faber rematch, and Dillashaw’s striking is better than both of those two comparisons. Dillashaw has the advantage in volume, power, and precision, but Cruz is great at setting up his takedowns and working angles. This sounds too simplistic, but I think Dillashaw will be able to defend the takedowns, win enough grappling battles, and pick apart Cruz with his beautiful combinations to get the decision win. TJ Dillashaw by unanimous decision.

Nick: This is a very close fight and lots of people are picking Dillashaw because of Cruz’s long layoff, but I don’t think the former champ will suffer from cage rust at all. Even coming off another ACL tear, I think he’ll look just as good, if not better, and get the job done with his movement. Dillashaw has a high striking rate, and Cruz has a high defense rate. Will Dillashaw falter in the striking department, or will Cruz falter in the defense department? I’m going with the first one. Dominick Cruz via Unanimous Decision

Victor Rodriguez: I have to disagree with Nick here, this layoff is going to affect Cruz’s performance. Cruz certainly won’t be lacking motivation or hunger, but Dillashaw is a different challenge with better movement than what Dominick is used to. TJ’s going to have some trouble landing shots, but he won’t be controlled by Cruz’s wrestling and will likely beat him up against the fence. Tyler Jeffrey Dillashaw by decision.

Fraser Coffeen: I’ve watched a ton of fights from these guys lately and that has convinced me of three things: 1) This is going to awesome. 2) This is a REALLY hard fight to pick. and 3) It’s going to be decided by Dillashaw’s takedown defense. There’s been a big deal made over the years of how Dillashaw has never been taken down in the Octagon but the fact is no one has really actively tried to take him down consistently (though Barao does get him down for about a half second in their second fight). Cruz most certainly will. Like GSP, Cruz is a smart fighter and when he’s not dominating the stand-up (and he won’t against TJ), he likes to shift attacks and start scoring the takedowns. That’s how he beat Mighty Mouse and many others, and I feel confident it’s how he tries to beat Dillashaw. So can he get that takedown? It’s hard to say as TJ’s defense is not much tested, and as good a striking coach as Bang Ludwig is, he’s not a wrestling coach. Still, I do think the champ can stay off his back enough to engage in a striking battle, and there, while it’s razor close, I give him the edge due to his power and the timing that should allow him to catch Cruz coming in. Hedging my bets though and saying that if I’m wrong and Cruz wins that takedown battle, he’s the new champ. T.J. Dillashaw, KO, round 4

Staff picking Dillashaw: Mookie, Stephie, Victor, Phil, Fraser, Zane, Anton
Staff picking Cruz: Tim, Nick

Eddie Alvarez vs. Anthony Pettis

Anton Tabuena: This will likely bring the fireworks, but overall this bout is pretty straightforward to me. This will mostly be spent on the feet, and Pettis should be by far the more dynamic and technical striker. Unless the brutal RDA fight changed him completely, this is his fight to lose. Anthony Pettis by Decision.

Mookie Alexander: Pettis is just about d-o-n-e as a LW title challenger if he loses this. I’ve already written about the historical problems lightweights have had with getting back into championship fights, and Pettis absolutely can fall into this hole. Fortunately for him, unless Alvarez takes the RDA/Melendez plan of constant pressure and repeated takedown attempts, Pettis will mop up Eddie standing and hurt him badly. I can see a submission out of Pettis, but I think this is the weekend that Alvarez suffers his first knockout loss since Nick Thompson way back in the Bodog days. Anthony Pettis by TKO, round 2.

Victor Rodriguez: As the resident unofficial yet unapologetic Alvarez cheerleader around these parts, this is tough. Pettis is slick and dangerous in his offense regardless of where he is. That said, RDA and to a lesser extent Melendez showed Pettis doesn’t deal that well with forward pressure and can be largely nullified if you don’t give him room to implement his kicking game. Eddie should know this and hopefully close the distance to prevent getting leg kicked to death. Pettis won’t be strong enough to keep him off the whole fight. Eddie Alvarez by hideous but satisfying decision.

Staff picking Alvarez: Victor
Staff picking Pettis: Tim, Mookie, Nick, Phil, Stephie, Fraser, Zane, Anton

Travis Browne vs. Matt Mitrione

Anton Tabuena: Browne should fight smart and wrestle here, but they’re probably just going to duke it out until one man goes down. These are heavyweights, so anything can happen, but with Browne’s lapses on defense, I’m guessing it’s him who gets put down. Matt Mitrione by TKO.

Mookie Alexander: Am I missing something here? I get that Travis Browne is clearly not a guy who is going to be competing for championships, but Matt Mitrione really has never shown himself to be anywhere close to the caliber of top 10 heavyweights. He’s more than good enough to beat guys in the 12-15 range and below, but fights like the Rothwell loss show his limitations. Of course, Mitrione can win this if Browne goes for an explosion of stupid and just boxes with him for the whole fight, but Mitrione is terrible off his back, Browne has good enough takedowns and is hard to buck off when he’s on top of you. I think that’s how the fight plays out, and Browne will arm-triangle Mitrione. Travis Browne by submission, round 2.

Phil Mackenzie: On the plus side, these are good athletes for Heavyweight. The fight consists of Browne, a guy with a natural feel for the fight coupled with consistently sloppy stand-up, against good technical stand-up corroded by a huge predilection for brainfarts on Mitrione’s part. Browne has a reasonable top game which could play out against Mitrione’s tendency to horrifically spaz out in ground situations, but Hapa doesn’t look for takedowns much. Mitrione is by far the cleaner counterpuncher and defensive fighter. What does this mean in the grand scheme of things? Likely not much because Heavyweights. Matt Mitrione by unanimous decision.

Victor Rodriguez: Travis Browne still trains under Edmond Tarverdyan, which means that no matter what his striking looks like (surprisingly not improved by that much) his defense is almost null. Mitrione won’t shoot for takedowns again after the way it played out for him last time, so this is guaranteed to stay standing. Travis hits hard, but Mitrione fights smarter than he does, plus he has a better finishing instinct. Mitrione by violent TKO, round 2.

Staff picking Browne: Tim, Mookie, Stephie, Fraser
Staff picking Mitrione: Nick, Phil, Victor, Zane, Anton

Ross Pearson vs. Francisco Trinaldo

Mookie Alexander: I picked Trinaldo on the Three Amigos Podcast earlier in the week, but I don’t feel any bit confident in it anymore. Pearson is the better striker, his takedown defense is usually pretty good, and I don’t think he poses the same physical problems that Dunham presented. And unlike Dunham, Trinaldo’s gas tank is not consistent at all. If Trinaldo gets his takedowns and wins from top position, then it’s Trinaldo’s fight to lose. Otherwise, Pearson can win a striking match over the course of three rounds, and that’s what I’m going with. Ross Pearson by unanimous decision.

Phil Mackenzie: Apart from the main event, this is the fight I’ve flip-flopped on the most. It’ll be sad to see one of these guys get their momentum stopped, as they’ve both outperformed expectations a bit recently, against Felder and Laprise respectively. I’m going to go… uhhh… Pearson maybe? Apart from Dunham his problems have been against speed rather than power. If Trinaldo throws takedowns into the mix it gives him a much better chance over a 3 rounder, but he hasn’t really done that recently. Arrgh. Ross Pearson by unanimous decision

Victor Rodriguez: I’m also slightly torn on this one. Trinaldo hits really hard when he catches his opponent, but Pearson fights cleaner and makes better use of angles and timing. Despite Trinaldo’s apparent boxing background and remarkably fun-to-pronounce nickname, his cardio is suspect and his game is sloppy all around. Trinaldo is durable, but Pearson may be able to put him away late in the bout. Ross Pearson by TKO, round 3.

Staff picking Pearson: Nick, Phil, Victor, Zane, Anton, Mookie
Staff picking Trinaldo: Tim, Stephie, Fraser

Patrick Cote vs. Ben Saunders

Anton Tabuena: KNEEEEEEEEEEEEEES. Ben Saunders by TKO.

Mookie Alexander: Very good chance this rejuvenated Cote (that Riggs fight aside) can win this, but Saunders has more ways to win, and he’s cracked iron chins before (see: Marcus Davis). Lets mutherfukers. Ben Saunders by unanimous decision.

Phil Mackenzie: I’ve been a touch critical of what I perceived as Killa B’s overly offensive guard in the past, in that I thought he went for far too many low-percentage submissions. However, over the last couple of years it’s really developed into something special. Cote has also oddly gotten much better lately, moving to a wrestling-centric style and then integrating his striking back into his new skillset. Cote’s wrestling vs Saunders’ guard, Saunders’ better offensive capabilities and higher pace vs Cote’s durability. Hm. Who am I kidding? Lets. Ben Saunders by unanimous decision.

Victor Rodriguez: Cote’s better than people give him credit for, but Ben Saunders has the tools to shut him down. Saunders has better use of range and can be very accurate, plus he’s a big lanky guy with decent takedown defense and marvelous guard game. Cote’s improved a lot since coming back to the UFC, but he won’t be able to close the distance effectively or crack Ben hard enough. Ben Saunders by knees from clinch leading to TKO.

Fraser Coffeen: I certainly am not picking against Killa B. Are YOU??? Ben Saunders, KO, round 2

Staff picking Cote: Nick
Staff picking Saunders: Tim, Mookie, Stephie, Phil, Victor, Fraser, Zane, Anton

Tim Boetsch vs. Ed Herman

Mookie Alexander: Just read what Phil wrote, because I can’t top it. Tim Boetsch by TKO, round 2.

Phil Mackenzie: and so it was that the man they called Short Fuse did attempt regicide most foul against his liege lord, ruler of the Blue Collar Scrappers. Herman secluded himself and prepar’d as well as any man could, honing both power and strength; growing his speed ‘til he could cover entire cubits within the space of a minute. Sadly for the upstart, while the King had been travelling in strange lands and had suffer’d painful defeats to otherworldly warriors, his collar remained the bluest; his scrappiness was still leaven’d by a Barbarian’s insensate power. He defeated the challenger in a fight that in seasons and years to come, the bards would… not sing about very much. Tim Boetsch by unanimous decision.

Staff picking Boetsch: Tim, Mookie, Nick, Stephie, Phil, Fraser, Zane, Anton
Staff picking Herman:

Mehdi Baghdad vs. Chris Wade

Anton Tabuena: Wade will bomb Baghdad. Chris Wade by TKO.

Phil Mackenzie: Wade’s core competency of wrestling should be enough to get him this one. Baghdad just isn’t the wrestler that even Christos Giagos was, and gives up the clinch too easily. Chris Wade by submission, round 3.

Staff picking Baghdad:
Staff picking Wade: Tim, Mookie, Nick, Stephie, Phil, Fraser, Zane, Anton

Maximo Blanco vs. Luke Sanders

Mookie Alexander: Blanco will win this as long as he doesn’t get DQ’d or manages to get a NC out of it through something remarkably stupid. In other words, this is a 50-50 fight. Maximo Blanco by TKO, round 2.

Phil Mackenzie: Sanders is a bit of a live dog. Cool Hand Luke spends his time defending Conor in comment sections trains out of The Lab, and is a near-prototypical Lab fighter: hard-charging, tough, and interstitially well-coached and well-rounded. Blanco is approximately the same brand of gifted but irrepressibly loopy and rule-bending nutter as Yoel Romero or Toquinho, so you never know when he’s going to just throw a fight away. He does seem (“seem”) to be coming into his own. Maximo Blanco by TKO, round 2.

Victor Rodriguez: Sanders is a talented guy, but just out of sure insanity I have to go with Maxi. Nobody capitalizes on crazy scrambles and there’s always an element of random chaos in his bouts. Maximo Blanco by TKO, round 3.

Staff picking Blanco: Tim, Mookie, Nick, Stephie, Victor, Fraser, Zane, Anton
Staff picking Sanders:

Daron Cruickshank vs. Paul Felder

Nick: Spinning sh-t all day, baby. Paul Felder via Knockout; Round 1

Mookie Alexander: Cruickshank doesn’t seem to be getting better and that alone is reason for me to pick Felder. I have a feeling Felder’s output issues in the Pearson fight were partially caused by having such a quick turnaround from the Barboza thriller. He’s got a full camp behind him, he hits hard, has very good takedown defense, and I think he’s still got room to improve, whereas Cruickshank is pretty much a finished product. Paul Felder by KO, round 2.

Phil Mackenzie: Daron Cruickshank has lost to two traits in the UFC- size and pressure. Enter Felder. Cruickshank’s solution to pressure has been double legs in recent years, but I think that’s very unlikely to work against Felder’s iron-clad TDD. Felder isn’t unhittable, and Cruickshank is one of those guys without many KOs with his hands who still clearly hits really really hard, even discounting his kicks. While it’s tempting to play Chin MMAth (could take hits from Barboza and Pearson, can surely take Cruickshank’s), it wouldn’t blow me away to see Felder get overconfident and dusted. That said, Paul Felder by TKO, round 2.

Staff picking Cruickshank:
Staff picking Felder: Tim, Mookie, Nick, Phil, Stephie, Fraser, Zane, Anton

Kyle Bochniak vs. Charles Rosa

Phil Mackenzie: Two very different offense-over-defense fighters. Rosa is length, kicks and scrambles, and Bochniak is just a squat, aggressive tank. I think Bochniak can stick around in the UFC, but this is a brutally short-notice debut and while Rosa’s defense isn’t great, Bochniak literally doesn’t appear to have any. When these kind of fighters collide someone traditionally gets finished. Charles Rosa by submission, round 1

Staff picking Bochniak:
Staff picking Rosa: Nick, Phil, Stephie, Mookie, Fraser, Zane, Anton

Ilir Latifi vs. Sean O’Connell

Nick: I mean, people joke about Latifi being the next light heavyweight champion, and the Greatest of all Time, and things like that… but when I see Latifi as a sizable favourite and the majority of fans picking him to win, I really question whether or not those people are serious or not. The Real OC has this in the bag. Sean O’Connell via Knockout; Round 1

Mookie Alexander: O’Connell looked great in his destruction of Anthony Perosh, and definitely has power in his hands, as we’ve seen in both of his UFC wins. But when you have to go up against the all-time GOAT of all-time, Mr. Ilir Latifi, you’re better off praying that the GAWD himself goes easy on you and doesn’t snatch your soul. Ilir Latifi by Lathrashing, round 1.

Phil Mackenzie: Ilir Latifi is ridiculously super strong, but not particularly quick, and his problems have been around getting his advance stalled at mid to long range. O’Connell is a pocket brawler, and is going to be constantly stepping into spaces where Latifi can get his hands on him. He may be the slightly less diverse boxer, but Latifi has a powerful wrestling and grappling game and an ugly but comically damaging leg kick. Ilir Latifi by TKO, round 1

Victor Rodriguez: O’Connell’s had some hideous moments in his UFC debut but Latifi is durable and a much more complete fighter that won’t fall for a guy spamming right hands. Latifi by TKO on the ground, round 2.

Staff picking Latifi: Tim, Mookie, Phil, Stephie, Victor, Fraser, Zane, Anton
Staff picking O’Connell: Nick

Rob Font vs. Joey Gomez

Mookie Alexander: I don’t think picking Font is a bold prediction, for what it’s worth. Rob Font by unanimous decision.

Phil Mackenzie: Gomez had a semi-underwhelming amateur career but has kerned the corner since with a string of first round knockouts. Longer, more diverse and with more big fight experience, a Font win is undoubtedly the safer script to follow, but if you want to be bold, there’s no reason not to take Gomez in what should be a toss-up of two gifted punchers. Rob Font by TKO, round 2.

Staff picking Font: Tim, Mookie, Nick, Phil, Stephie, Fraser, Zane, Anton
Staff picking Gomez:

Francimar Barroso vs. Elvis Mutapcic

Phil Mackenzie: Nope nope nopity nope. With Bruno Santos long gone, Francimar Barroso is undoubtedly the most boring fighter on the UFC roster, with a level of turgid inactivity which goes far beyond even my capacity for loving boring fighters. Mutapcic is smaller but should at least be able to put out good offense. I can’t remember Barroso doing one effective thing in his UFC career apart from smushing Ryan Jimmo’s balls. Elvis Mutapcic by unanimous decision

Victor Rodriguez: I guess I’m just really happy that Mutapcic is finally getting a shot in the big show. Barroso won’t have the necessary athleticism or speed to win this one. Mutapcic by unanimous decision.

Staff picking Barroso:
Staff picking Mutapcic: Tim, Mookie, Phil, Stephie, Victor, Nick, Fraser, Zane, Anton